FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition

September 20th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Night Quick Reads

Do the Numbers lie?

Looking at Sunday’s matchups there are a lot of key matchups to take note, but you also can’t forget to pay attention to what the numbers are saying. With 20 line-ups on tap to set for Sunday week 3, I am looking for any and every parcel of information that will help me find the strongest plays.

When I look at all of my matchups, I am hoping the numbers don’t lie….

The Colts will invade swamp country on Sunday when they face the Jaguars in Jacksonville and running back Ahmad Bradshaw could be looking to do some serious damage. The Jaguars defense is ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs and their four rushing touchdowns allowed this season are most in the league. Bradshaw is coming off an 18 touch performance last Monday that produced 5 receptions, 96 total yards of offense and two scores. This is a great matchup for Bradshaw, he’s a week 3 must play!

The Cleveland Browns defense was stung last week for 10 catches and two scores by Saints tight end Jimmy Graham. This Sunday the Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta is not quite the same caliber player as Graham, but in week one Pitta posted his own 10 catch game. The Browns allow the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and Pitta with his 19 targets in two games could be in for a big day on Sunday. He’s a favorite for Week 3.

If you are looking deep on your roster and you come across the Bills wide receiver Sammy Watkins, if you have not started him yet this Sunday could be the time to do just that. Watkins is coming off a strong week 2 performance; 8 catches on 11 targets for 117 yards and a touchdown. Watkins will face the Chargers defense in week 3, the same defense that has allowed 7^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Watkins is a playmaker and could be geared to make more plays on Sunday; he’s a strong week 3 flex play.

The Chargers are making the long distance travel across country to face the Bills on Sunday in week 3, even though they are good team this could be a tough matchup. The Chargers defense allows the 10^th most fantasy points and facing running backs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson offers no comfort. Spiller has yet to breakout this season and Jackson too has been quiet, but the two could be in for a big day of production against the Bolts. The Chargers have allowed more than 230 yards of offense, 16 receptions (2^nd most allowed) and three touchdowns to running backs; Spiller and Jackson are on track for a productive Sunday.

The Chiefs defense has been a mere shadow of itself from a year ago and the timing could not be any better for Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill and Company. The Chiefs secondary is allowing the 3^rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 5 touchdowns (tied for most in the league) and zero interceptions. With safety Eric Berry already ruled out, the matchup just gets better for Tannehill and wide receiver Mike Wallace (19 targets in 2014). Tannehill is coming off a tough loss against the Bills in week 2, so he and Wallace will look to get back on track this Sunday. In deeper leagues both could be sneaky plays for week 3.

These are more of my takes for week 3.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday morning Edition

September 7th, 2014 

David’s Daily Digest

SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

Numbers to help the Cause

With the Week 1 Sunday kickoff just hours away, fantasy owners are scrambling to make those last minutes tweaks to their lineups. If you are like me, I am always looking for data and numbers to help me find the best plays for Sunday.

Here are some of the numbers you should know for week 1;

Even though the Rob Ryan Saints defense only allowed the 5^th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has had success in the past throwing the ball. In 4 of his last 6 starts versus the Saints Ryan has thrown for more than 300 yards. In his one game last season against the Saints when he had all of his weapons Ryan also completed 65 percent of his passes and threw two touchdowns.

Facing the Ravens defense at home today, Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton may be one to avoid. In his two starts last season against Baltimore Dalton has been picked off seven times, including four at home in the finale.

The Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer was coming off the board as a mid QB-2 in most drafts and even later in some. He’s been a little overlooked, but in 2013 in the second half of the season Palmer showed some glimmer. In his last 8 starts he completed over 60 percent of his passes in five of those, throwing multiple touchdowns in 5 of those contests as well. Palmers’ numbers down the stretch were not out of this world, but they should not be overlooked; 295 yards passing per game, 14 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Monday night he’ll face the Chargers secondary that allowed the 8^th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

The Bills will use a committee of both running back CJ Spiller and running back Fred Jackson (both were top 30 running backs in fantasy last season). Even with a lesser experienced quarterback (E.J. Manuel) under center, both should find success on the ground facing the Bears defense today. Last season Chicago allowed the second most fantasy points to running backs, including 19 rushing touchdowns, 2^nd most. Both Spiller and Jackson should be safe plays today.

There’s been little talk about Texans running back Arian Foster, and more importantly no talk about any injuries. A healthy Foster facing a suspect Redskins run defense could spell for a big day. Foster has the talent to blow up and with the Redskins allowing the 4^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and 20 rushing touchdowns (most in the league) last season, he could be fantasy gold.

Just some numbers to know for Sunday week 1.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Thursday Evening Edition

August 28th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Picking Favorites

Thinking Draft Strategy

So you have the first pick in your league’s draft or maybe you have one of the early picks, either way you have a decision to make; pick with your heart, your gut, or do you follow some pre-planned strategy?

What I have been noticing (and something you may be seeing as well) in the top positions, if you grab one of the big four running backs you will still be able to come back with solid receivers late in the 2^nd and early in the 3^rd round. It seems most league players are jostling for running backs early leaving time for the early picks to come back with the Alshon Jefferys, Julio Jones, and Randall Cobbs.

And what I have also noticed (in PPRs), you can still turn around in the 4^th, 5^th, and 6^th rounds and find decent value; the likes of Reggie Bush, CJ Spiller, and Andre Ellington. These are the players that may not win your weekly matchup on their own, but they will give you good production every week and keep you in the hunt so your big guns can get it done.

In a recent draft I held the 2^nd pick and took Adrian Peterson. With one of the top producing backs in the league I immediately targeted receivers selecting Jordy Nelson and Alshon Jeffery. I followed those two with Roddy White and Reggie Bush; not sexy, but effective. Andrew Luck (my quarterback) was taken in the 6^th and my first tight end (Kyle Rudolph) came off the board in the 7^th.

In another draft I did tonight, I followed a similar pattern (picking in the 8^th slot) selecting receiver-receiver (Dez Bryant and Alshon) and then going running back with my next three picks; Reggie Bush, Andre Ellington, and Chris Johnson. My quarterback (Matt Ryan) and tight end (Dennis Pitta) came in the 7^th and 8^th round respectively.

If you are paying attention, then I am sure you are hearing the same thing; wait on your quarterback, there is time to take him later. Even grabbing a Brees, Manning, or Rodgers can be costly (depending on your league scoring), if taken too early. Let the other deal with that mistake and stick to your plan. The Ryans, Romos, and Cutlers are safe plays with the upside of big game potential and the Flaccos, Palmers, and Rivers will still be there even later to have your back in a jam.

With all of this said there are a lot of ideas and strategies you can follow, and any you choose is never wrong (it’s whatever works for you). But remember to stay on your game and be ready for the wild cards in the draft that can often foul things up.

No matter what happens, stay the course and draft well my friend.

Good luck this fantasy season!

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition
December 29th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

“Fantasy is not over”

Calvin a lock for 2000
Megatron has 2,000 yards in his sights and there’s little doubt that he will achieve his goal. In his last five games Calvin is averaging better than 16 targets per game; his average stat line is 52 receptions, 775 yards receiving, and two touchdowns. Fantasy owners with something left to play for can expect another big performance against the Bears on Sunday.

Count on a big day from AP
The Vikings running back Adrian Peterson needs a huge day on Sunday against the Packers to eclipse the rushing record yards in a season. Record or not, fantasy owners can count on a big day from AP. Back in week 13 AP shredded the Packers defense in Lambeau for 210 yards and last season at home he torched them for 175 yards. AP has six career 100-yard games against the Pack, expect a lot of AP and plenty of yards.

Alexander ready to face Raiders
After a disappointing week 15 performance Chargers wide receiver Danario Alexander rebounded with a three-catch, 69 yard, and one touchdown performance against the Jets stingy pass defense. Alexander will be looking to finish strong and should find a lot of success against a Raiders secondary that has surrendered 26 passing touchdowns. If your fantasy season has yet to end, Alexander is a strong play this Sunday.

Hillman could be a flier this week
The Broncos starting running back Knowshon Moreno is expected to play, but with sore ribs he could see his work load cut back a bit. Hillman has been steady this season as the backup and could see some increased work on Sunday. The Chiefs rank 26th against the run and Hillman has breakaway speed; do the math. Hillman may have play this Sunday as a flex in the deepest of leagues.

Spiller ready to finish Strong
The Bills running back CJ Spiller is a little nicked up, but he should be fine for Sunday against the Jets. Spiller is coming off back to back 100-yard games (has five this season) and looks like a strong bet to finish the 2012 season with three straight facing the Jets 27th ranked run defense. Spiller started the season with 169 yards against the Jets back in week one, he’ll be looking for a repeat this Sunday. Spiller may have a tough task at reaching the 169 he posted 16 weeks ago, but fantasy owners can count on another solid day and double digit fantasy points against a defense that allows the most fantasy points to running backs.


More takes for week 17.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition
December 22nd, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Ballard has a Good matchup.
The Colts running back Vick Ballard has been solid the past two weeks in fantasy scoring in double digits in each of his past two games. This Sunday Ballard will line up against the leagues 27th ranked run defense and will have a great shot at scoring in double digits for the third straight game. The Chiefs allow the 8th most fantasy points to running backs.

Bradshaw very shaky for Week 16.
Running back Ahmad Bradshaw is making the trip to Baltimore, but given his injury status he remains a big risk on Sunday. Even if Bradshaw is active, the Giants could lean on other options limiting the ball carriers production. Given this is championship weekend, fantasy owners should look to alternative options to play it safe.

Cam has the hot hand
Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has been playing very well his past four starts averaging 264 yards passing while completing 62% of his throws; he has also tossed 9 touchdowns with no interceptions during the same run. Cam has also chipped in with 253 rushing yards and three scores in his last four games. This Sunday Cam will face the Raiders defense that allows the 7th most fantasy points to quarterbacks and have allowed 25 touchdowns. This is a great matchup for Cam on Championship Sunday.

Spiller set for another big Sunday
The Bills running back CJ Spiller has topped double-digits in fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games. He’s coming off a solid 16 points performance (103 rushing yards with a touchdowns) last week against the Seahawks, and looks like a solid play this Sunday against the Dolphins 8th ranked run defense.

Stafford looking to rebound.
The Lions running game this season has become virtually non-existent and with Megatron on the trail of Jerry Rice’s record, Stafford will not be shy to put the ball in the air. The Falcons defense ranks 17th against the pass, so expect to see Stafford continue his torrid pace of averaging 50 passes per game (over his last four starts). Stafford has been a cold the past three weeks with five picks to three touchdowns; this could be the weekend to get hot.

Bryant a risk worth taking?
The Cowboys playmaking receiver Dez Bryant is playing with damaged wing, but despite the injury he was able to haul in 4 of 9 targets for 59 yards and a touchdown. Bryant is a big part of the Cowboys offense and one of quarterback Tony Romo’s most lethal weapons on the girdiron. With 9 targets last week, injured or not Romo shows no fear looking Bryant’s direction. A risk maybe, but his upside is top-10 talent and worth the play.

More takes for week 16.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: MY RANKINGS RB (WEEK 15)

Saturday Edition
December 15th, 2012  

My Rankings

(Does not include Thursday’s Game)

Running backs

1. Marshawn Lynch
2. Doug Martin
3. Alfred Morris
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Arian Foster
6. Darren McFadden
7. Jamal Charles
8. Knowshon Moreno
9. David Wilson
10. Chris Johnson

11. CJ Spiller
12. Darren Sproles
13. Shonn Greene
14. Ray Rice
15. DeMarco Murray
16. Frank Gore
17. Matt Forte
18. Trent Richardson
19. Jonathan Dwyer
20. Steven Jackson


My notes: 

Marshawn Lynch (1.266 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns) has been running hard and running well this season and should continue on Sunday against the Bills 28th ranked run defense. Lynch has posted seven 100 yard rushing games this season and has scored in two straight games. Against the Bills (18 rushing touchdowns allowed and 134.5 yards per game allowed) he’s a lock to make it three straight and post his eighth 100-yard game.

The Broncos running game is now led by running back Knowshon Moreno who has totaled 361 yards (273 rushing, 88 receiving) in three games. This Sunday he’s on the road to face the Ravens and their 25th ranked run defense; Moreno has seen an average of 28 touches in his last three games, including 36 last week, so he’s a sure bet to see another heavy load of touches and production.

Running back CJ Spiller will be the feature running back back this week and will see plenty of work, but this Sunday he draws a tough start against the Seahawks 11th ranked run defense. Spiller should still be effective on Sunday, just don’t expect a huge day; 75-85 yards rushing and 20-30 yards receiving, but trips to the end zone could be scarce.

Rookie running back David Wilson will get the start for the Giants on Sunday and he should see plenty of touches, but mixed emotions with this one. Wilson has breakaway speed and big play potential, but without enough film on the kid it’s tough to expect huge numbers. He should still be highly productive against the Falcons 23rd ranked defense, and with his speed there’s always a great chance for a big day.

The Raiders are still the Raiders and with a player like running back Jamal Charles toting the rock, he’s always a threat for the homerun. Charles is ranked 5th this season in the league with 1,220 yards rushing and he’s coming off a big performance a week ago. The Raiders allow more than 130 yards on the ground and have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns this season; it has the making for only Charles second 100-yard rushing game against the Raiders in 5 seasons.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Edition
December 2nd, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Bad Weather is Good News for Spiller
The Bills running back CJ Spiller (830 yards rushing in 2012) could be looking at a heavy load today with the weather forecast predicting rain and wind. Spiller has been the most consistent back in the Bills backfield and will take the lead reins today. Facing the Jaguars 29th ranked run defense, Spiller is looking at possibly his best game of the season; a must-start today.

Rodgers Set for a Big Game with a Full Arsenal
The Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (28 touchdowns in 2012) will enjoy the return of wide receiver Greg Jennings today. Although Jennings may be brought along slowly, the Vikings defense will still need to account for him along with Nelson and Cobb. Rodgers will be looking to bounce back after a sub-par game against the Giants last week; in his last two matchups against the Vikings Rodgers has torched them for 585 yards and 7 touchdowns. Today should be just another Sunday slinging the rock for Rodgers.

Thomas Looking for a Breakout Day
The Broncos wide receiver Demaryrius Thomas is having a fine 2012 campaign, but today could be particularly huge for the playmaker. Thomas and Manning have connected six times for scores this season, a number that could grow exponentially when the two square off against the Bucs today. The Buccaneers secondary is ranked last in the league against the pass and have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers (including 11 touchdowns); analysis, big game for Thomas.

Clark Looking to take Advantage of Broncos D
The Buccaneers tight end Dallas Clark has become one of quarterback Josh Freeman’s trusted go-to targets and after a slow start this season, Clark’s numbers are starting to rise. Those number should continue to rise even more today facing the Broncos secondary that has struggled against tight ends in recent weeks. The Broncos allow the most fantasy points to tight ends making Clark (31 receptions and 3 touchdowns in 2012) a top 10 fantasy play for week 13.

These are just a few of my takes for week 13.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: MONDAY'S FANTASY HEADLINES

Monday Edition
November 26th, 2012  

David's Daily Digest








Monday’s Fantasy Headlines

Fred Jackson To Take A Backseat
The Bills running back Fred Jackson who made his return to action on Sunday after missing a game because of the concussion he suffered in week 10, will take a back seat to the more explosive and quick CJ Spiller. Jackson should continue to see a steady share of snaps, but through 12 weeks of action Spiller has proven to be the more effective ground gainer and will continue to see a greater share of carries and touches. Jackson can still offer some (not much) as a flex option in deeper 14-16 team leagues.

Ahmad Bradshaw Likely To See Increased Duties
Against the Packers on Sunday night the Giants running back Andre Brown was lost for the remainder of the season with a broken fibula. With Brown out, running back Ahmad Bradshaw who finished with 119 total yards against the Packers, will likely see more touches including in the red zone. The increased work should make Bradshaw a solid play and a mid-value RB2 heading into the fantasy playoffs.

DeSean Jackson Continues to Struggle in 2012
The Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson has been nothing less than a big fantasy disappointment this season. In 11 games this season Jackson has scored just twice and recorded only two 100-yard receiving games. On Monday night Jackson exited early with an injury finishing the game with just one catch for 9 yards. It was the fourth time Jackson has posted three or fewer grabs in game and the sixth time he has had less than 65 yards receiving. Jackson will be questionable for next Sunday against the Cowboys and has fallen to a very shaky low value WR3.

Knowshon Moreno Appears To Be The Man
There was so much speculation last week surrounding the Broncos backfield with running back Willis McGahee going down, but after his performance on Sunday it looks like Knowshon Moreno (85 yards rushing, 26 yards receiving) has locked up the starting gig for now. Rookie running back Ronnie Hillman was expected to step into the starting role and handle much of the workload in the backfield, but obviously there were too many questions surrounding his pass protection skills. The Veteran Moreno was impressive on Sunday and now appears to be the main guy in the Broncos backfield.

Brandon Marshall Back To Form With His Starting QB
With quarterback Jay Cutler out last Monday night, Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall (81 receptions in 2012) was targeted just four times. With Cutler returning to action on Sunday, Marshall was targeted 17 times finishing with 12 receptions for 92 yards. Marshall has blossomed into an elite WR1 option this season reuniting with his old quarterback from his Denver days. As long as Cutler is under center and upright, Marshall remains a top-flight WR1 fantasy option especially in PPR leagues.

Danario Alexander Emerging As The Favorite in San Diego
Since his arrival wide receiver Danario Alexander has wasted little time making noise in the Chargers passing game. In his past three starts Alexander has been targeted 26 times posting a scoring line that includes; 17 receptions, 304 yards receiving and three scores. Alexander has emerged as one of quarterback Philip Rivers favorite targets and is a solid WR2 fantasy option going forward.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

Sunday Edition
November 25th, 2012  

Sunday Morning Gametime

The Falcons will have wide receiver Julio Jones (will start) today, but playing outdoor and a bad wheel (ankle) he could be a risky play. It’s tough to sit Jones with his tremendous upside and big play potential, so proceed with caution.

The Bills running back Fred Jackson is active and expected to play, but Spiller will get the start and should see the lions’ share of the carries today. Jackson is coming off a concussion and with Spiller being as effective as he has been (all season) it’s hard to imagine Jackson getting worked in too much today; Spiller is still the play in the Bills backfield.

Quarterback Jay Cutler is going to start, that’s good news for Brandon Marshall owners. Marshall is clearly Cutler’s favorite and go to receiver, so he’ll see plenty of work today. Marshall is a WR1 with Cutler in the game.

The Niners are going to roll with quarterback Colin Kaepernick. With Kaepernick’s mobility, he adds another dimension to the offense that could help open up things in the pass game. Tight end Vernon Davis and wide receiver Michael Crabtree would appear to be upgraded options with Kaepernick in the game. 

The Steelers will be without wide receiver Antonio Brown today (ruled OUT). With quarterback Charlie Batch under center expect the Steelers to work the trenches with their ground game. No Brown, no effect, today will be all about the three-headed monster led by running backs Jonathan Dwyer and Rashard Mendenhall.

Just a few notes for today’s games…

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FOUR HORSEMEN

Sunday Edition
November 25th, 2012  

The Four Horsemen

My week 12 fantasy picks…

Quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick)
There’s not a lot being said about the Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, but going on the road to play the Colts, he’s got a nice matchup. Fitz will face the Colts 20th ranked pass defense that has allowed 18 touchdowns this season to just four picks. The Colts allow the 12th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Don’t look for Ftiz to throw for a ton, since Spiller and Jackson should be able to carve into the Colts 21st ranked run defense, but the Bills quarterback should be better than effective in the red zone. He’s a good play today if you don’t have better options.

Running Back (CJ Spiller)
The Bills running back CJ Spiller is going to lose a few carries with the return of Fred Jackson today, but that won’t matter. Heading into today’s contest he’s averaging over 100 yards from scrimmage and 14 touches per game. Given the fact Jackson is returning from injury (concussion), the Bills will lean on Spiller and he should deliver solid numbers today. Spiller faces the Colts 21st ranked run defense today that has surrendered 11 rushing touchdowns and they allow the 7th most fantasy points to running backs. Spiller is a must start and top 10 option today.

Wide Receiver (Michael Crabtree)
The Niners wide receiver Michael Crabtree has not had too many big games this season, but he has been on a roll of late finding the end zone in three straight. With the Saints coming to town, Crabtree will get his shot at one of the league’s worst secondary pass defenses; Saints are ranked 31st in the league and allow the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Crabtree is likely no higher than a mid WR2 today, but he has a chance at a big game especially if Kaepernick (starting today) can be as effective as he was last Monday night.

Tight End (Brandon Myers, Oak)
The Raiders are on the road today and running into a hot Bengals team, winners of two straight and 59 points scored in their two wins. This could be one that the Raiders end up playing catch up; enter tight end Brandon Myers. The Raiders are already heaving it up almost 50 times per game over their last three and Myeres is seeing an average of 10 targets per game. Myers is averaging 6.3 receptions, 57 yards, and a touchdown in his last three starts. In a game that is likely to see a lot of passing, Myers is a top 10 option this week and should deliver.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition
November 24th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Bryce Brown Slated to Start Monday Night
The Eagles have ruled out LeSean McCoy (concussion) for Monday night and back up rookie running back Bryce Brown will get the start. Brown has seem limited action this season, but filling in as the starter this week could offer some hope to struggling fantasy owners. With rookie quarterback Nick Foles making his second start, the Eagles could rely more on its’ ground game after last week’s struggles in the air. Brown should have some success against the Panther’s 19th ranked run defense that allows over four yards per carry. The Panthers also allow the 11th most fantasy points to running backs.

Spiller Looking for Big Game on Sunday
Running back Fred Jackson is expected to return to action this Sunday against the Colts, but it will be CJ Spiller getting the start. Jackson is returning from a concussion and will likely see limited action. Spiller has the hot hand and could continue his solid play this week facing the Colts 21st ranked run defense. Spiller leads the team with 723 yards on the ground and has added another 336 receiving yards with five total touchdowns (4 rush, 1 receiving). The Colts allow the 7th most fantasy points to running backs and have surrendered 11 rushing touchdowns; this is the recipe for a great Sunday.

Foles will Start, Vick Ruled OUT Monday
The Eagles will roll with rookie quarterback Nick Foles on Monday night against the Panthers with Michael Vick (concussion) being ruled OUT. Last week Foles really struggled in the pocket completing less than 50% of his passes and throwing two interceptions. Foles was harassed all afternoon by the Redskins defense that sacked him four times and forced three fumbles from the rookie. With Foles under center, starting receivers DeSean Jackson (2 catches, 5 yards last week) and Jeremy Maclin (0 catches last week) become huge risky plays this week. The Panthers will bring more pressure this Monday night and only allow the 6th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Jackson and Maclin should be avoided, if you have other options.

Smith or Kaepernick, Expect Niners to Ride Gore
The move to start quarterback Colin Kaepernick on Sunday against the Saints has not been made official just yet, although all signs indicate he will. Whether the Niners make the move from Alex Smith to Kaepernick this Sunday or not, facing the Saints 32nd ranked run defense the team is likely to feed its running game that features Frank Gore. Gore leads the team with 829 yards rushing this season and quietly ranks 8th in the NFL. The Saints defense this season allow the most rushing yards per game and give up the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs; Gore needs to be in all line-ups this Sunday.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Edition
November 14th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Spiller to Carry the Load
With running back Fred Jackson sidelined this week with a concussion, CJ Spiller will not only start but likely carry the load. Spiller has been a consistent flex option all season, but his new starter status has likely vaulted him to the top of the charts as a lead RB1 option this week. The Bills take play Thursday night and take on the Dolphins 5th ranked run defense, fortunately for owners Spiller has been effective in both the run and pass game; he’s a safe start in week 11.

Run-DMC Likely Out Again
The Raiders will not have the services of running back Darren McFadden once again this week as he nurses his injured ankle. With Run-DMC sidelined full back Marcel Reece is the preferred fantasy selection from the Raiders backfield. With the Raiders set to host the Saints defense this Sunday, Reece has a nice matchup against one of the league’s worst defenses; the Saints also surrender the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs.

The Steelers Carrying a Full-House
With Mendenhall returning to a full practice this week, the Steelers are shaping up to have all three of their bruising running backs ready for Sunday. With Mendenhall, Redman, and Dwyer all figuring in the mix; the smart money would be on running back Jonathan Dwyer to get first look. It’s a tough dilemma and a tough read for fantasy owners and one best to avoid if possible.

Sproles Looks Ready to Return 
The Saints running back Darren Sproles returned to practice this week and looks on track to play this Sunday. With the recent strong running of backs Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram, the backfield now appears to be a little overcrowded. Even with the crowded backfield, Sproles is the favorite to see plenty of action, but his best value is in PPR formats.

Vick Likley Out, Foles Expected to Start This Sunday
It’s not official, but all signs are pointing to rookie quarterback Nick Foles starting this Sunday. If Foles does in fact start, the fantasy impact could be a lot of running back LeSean McCoy. While the team will want to see what Foles can do, the rookie will need protection and his safety net could be running back McCoy. The Eagles ball carrier is a dynamic and crafty runner with blazing speed and exceptional vision, but through 9 games this season he has just two touchdowns and eclipsed 20 carries just three times. Expect McCoy to see a lot of work this week.


By David Ortega