FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 23rd 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 3 Injury Takes

TE-Jimmy Graham; the Seahawks tight end has not been effective to start the season, but that could be more about the O-line play, than his usage and effectiveness. Graham is questionable for Sunday, but expected to play. It’s always tough to sit Jimmy since he’s always a red-zone favorite, so he’ll be a risky bottom-line TE1 this week.

WR-JJ Nelson; the Cardinals best receiver right now is nursing a hamstring injury. He’s expected to play Monday, but this may be a tough situation for owners to navigate with the Monday kickoff. Nelson has been brilliant to start the season, if he’s a go he’s a must play.

WR-Phillip Dorsett; the Patriots newest receiver is questionable for Sunday, but expected to play. Dorsett has been limited with a knee injury. He’s still pretty new to the offense, so this may not have a big fantasy impact at this time, but he’s already shown some flash and should be on fantasy radars.

WR-Chris Hogan; 7-11 is trending towards playing on Sunday and he should be in all lineups on Sunday. He’s definitely one of Brady’s more trusted options and should fare well coming off a week 2 stat line of 5/78/1.

TE-Jared Cook; the Raiders tight end is off the injury report and should be good to go against the Redskins. Cook is one of my preferred starts of the week and should be considered a startable low-end TE1 this week.

RB-Melvin Gordon; the Chargers running back is questionable, but expected to play Sunday. That’s good news for fantasy owners, although it was never expected that he wouldn’t play. Gordon is off to slow start on the ground, but the versatile back has maintained his value with his pass-catching skills. He should be a Top-15 RB this week once again.

WR-Jordy Nelson; the Packers receiver has been practicing in full this week and is expected to play. With his teammate Cobb likely out this week, Jordy is a strong WR1 play this week

WR-Randall Cobb; the Packers receiver is doubtful for Sunday and should be taken out of your lineups. With Cobb out, Nelson, Montgomery, Bennett, and Adams should see a bump in value.

TE-Evan Engram; the rookie  has been removed from the injury report this week and will play He’s got a good matchup this week and red-zone favorite this week. Facing the Eagles defense on Sunday, he’s a likely candidate to score this week.

DEF-Vontae Davis; Davis is going to miss week 3. With the Colts offense stuck in neutral and their best corner on the sideline, the Browns passing offense will have time and should be able to operate. Give Rashard Higgins, Duke Johnson Jr, and Isaiah Crowell all a bump in value this week.

WR-Amari Cooper; the Raiders wide receiver has been removed from the team’s injury report. Cooper has been somewhat quiet through two weeks, but he’s healthy and ready to go. A favorable matchup this week, Cooper should be in your lineup on Sunday.

WR-Kendall Wright; the Bears wide receiver is off the team’s injury report and ready to go for Sunday. He’s been the most active receiver in a stagnant Bears passing game with 14 targets through two weeks, but this Sunday could find it tough to get open. He’s a risky play that should be avoided.

RB-DeMarco Murray; the Titans running back is a little banged up with a hamstring injury. It sounds like Murray will be available for Sunday, but based on what we’ve seen thus far from him and the fact he’s dealing with an injury his workload could be lightened significantly this week.

RB-Derrick Henry; With Murray dealing with a hamstring issue and his slow start, dial up Henry this week. The former Crimson Tide is likely to see the bulk of the carries this week.

RB-Jordan Howard; the Bears running back is off the injury report, so he’s good to go for Sunday. It’s a tough start for Howard against the Steelers, so tread lightly with your expectations.

WR-John Brown; the speedy receiver has been ruled out for a second consecutive week with a quad injury. He can be dropped at this time, until his health turns for the better.

TE-Rob Gronkowski; the Patriots tight end has been trending all week toward playing, so it sounds like owners can expect to see the Gronk on Sunday. As long as he’s on the field, Gronk is a must play

TE-Jordan Reed; the Redskins tight end is looking like a Game-time call for Sunday night. The offense has been stagnate after two weeks and Reed is a risky play, owners are better off looking at alternative options like Jared Cook or Jack Doyle this week.

QB-Sam Bradford; the Vikings signal caller has been shelved for week 3. His biggest impact is the value hit his receivers will take once again. Thielen, Diggs, and Rudolph all drop in value, making all tough starts. Diggs and Thielen are salvageable in larger leagues, Rudolph may be the one fantasy casualty that sits this week.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID"S DAILY DIGEST

September 23rd 2017

Saturday Afternoon Edition

My Week 3 Four Horsemen + a Flex

(Bold Predictions)

So a quick look back at Week 2; we didn’t do too bad. I’m never going to jump through hoops or bury my head in the sand, because I know this is not an exact science. But I will admit, it always feels good to get some call right; last week quarterback Jameis Winston wasn’t brilliant, but he didn’t hurt your lineup either.

You’ll notice I always favor my scoring takes and breakdown toward PPR (love this format), so on that note, running back Melvin Gordon (No.8 RB last week), wide receiver Mike Evans (No.6 WR last week), and tight end Rob Gronkowski (No.3 TE last week) all scored very well. In the flex spot, I whiffed with Larry Fitzgerald; 6 targets for 3 receptions and 21 yards (finished outside the Top-50).

You win some, you lose some, let’s see how we do in week 3. Here are my picks for Week 3;

Quarterback

I’m not a Chargers fan by any mean, but I love Philip Rivers grit. The kid is tough as nails and in his 14th season he can still sling it all over the yard. He’s home this week and gets a favorable matchup against a leaky Chiefs secondary that is ranked 29th (before the Thursday Night game) against the pass. Rivers have plenty of weapons and will need to utilize all in what figures to be a shootout. I expect a big day for Rivers; 330 yards passing, 3 touchdowns and a pick.

Running Back

In my backfield this week I’ll be lining up the Panthers Jonathan Stewart. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but he’s been steady currently the No. 26 fantasy RB. He’s a worthy of a flex play, but this week against a soft Saints defense he could put up Top-15 fantasy numbers. Saints do a poor job versus the run ranked 24th, so I expect the Panthers to lean on the ground game. With 33 carries in two games thus far, I expect Stewart to lead the ground charge; 20 carries, 105 rushing yards, 2 catches, 15 receiving yards, and a rushing touchdown.

Wide Receiver

This week I am lining up out wide the Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Sure the Patriots know that Hopkins is the only real receiving threat the Texans have, but through two weeks quarterback Deshaun Watson has been able to pepper his favorite target with a heavy diet. Through two weeks Hopkins has been targeted 29 times (leads all receivers) and that has translated into the No.10 fantasy WR. He’s sure to see at least 10 targets on Sunday and the Patriots secondary is not good enough to shut him down. I’d look for a modest line of 7 receptions for 80 yards and a score.

Tight End

My tight end for week 3 is a bit of a risky play The Raiders Jared Cook has seen a steady diet of targets (11 total) in each of the first two weeks, but it has yet to convert into any real production. Cook has just 9 receptions for 81 yards in two games, good enough for the No.18 fantasy TE. This week I expect to see a significant rise in product against a Redskins defense that ranks 28th against the pass (before the Thursday Night game) and has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. This week Cook scores; 6 receptions, 65 receiving yards, and a touchdown.

Flex

Going to reach a little, very little with this pick of running back Lamar Miller. The Patriots are not great against the run, currently ranked 26th and the Texans will have to shorten this one if they hope to keep it close. I am expecting the Texans game plan to be run, run, run and the beneficiary will be Miller. He has 40 touches in 2 games and could see a spike in touches on Sunday. I’m not expecting a big day, but a strong stat line of; 18 carries, 90 rushing yards, 3 catches, 20 receiving yards, and a score.

For those of us engaged in DFS or team defense leagues;

Defense; I am running with the Steelers this week. Looking at the numbers, the Bears struggle with keeping their quarterback upright and the Steelers bring pressure (9 sacks in 2 games). The Bears offense also ranks 20th in total offense, buried in the lower half of the league. The Steel Curtain should feast this Sunday.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 22nd 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

My Weekly DFS Play

For those that may be interested, here’s one of my favorite line-ups for Sunday (Week 3) on DraftKings;

QB-Philip Rivers ($6,400): At this price, I believe Rivers is a great value and I happen to like his week 3 matchup very much as well. The Chiefs defense allows the 6th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and with their offense putting up points on the Chargers 20th ranked defense that sits well with me. I expect to see Rivers slinging it all over the yard, just trying to keep up with Alex Smith the Sunshine Band.

RB-Lamar Miller ($5,000): Yes, that’s right Miller. Bill O’Brien and the Texans are going to have to shorten this game as much as possible, if they stand a chance to keep it competitive. Miller, the No.19 (PPR) fantasy running back has yet to exceed 20 carries in a game this season (his high is 18), but I expect he’s got a good shot at doing just that this Sunday against a Patriots defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Miller Gold has a nice ring, don’t you think?

RB-Jonathan Stewart ($4,700): Now here’s the bargain of the week, Stewart for $4,700 at the Saints. Through two weeks Stewart has carried the rock 33 times for 105 yards, not a great average. He’ll get a great shot at redemption and much better numbers this Sunday against a Saints defense that is allowing 4.4 yards per carry. The Saints defense has also allowed the 4th most fantasy points (27.00) to opposing running backs, which means both Panthers backs should be productive.

WR-Keenan Allen ($7,200): This is the stack play with Keenan and Rivers, but could you blame me? His price is in line, especially following a week 2 with 10 targets for 9 receptions and 100 yards receiving. Allen is consistent and unquestionably Rivers favorite. You should be able to count on another 8-10 targets on Sunday against a Chiefs secondary that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers

WR-Jermaine Kearse ($4,600): Another bargain, with a little risk. But at his price it’s hard to pass on Kearse. Through two games he’s been the most reliable and productive receiver on the field for the Jets. I expect to see his number continue to be called and against a shaky Dolphins secondary he should have lots of success.

WR-Adam Thielen ($5,700): There’s likely no Sam Bradford this Sunday, he’s still dealing with a knee issue. As was the case last week, in the absence of Bradford, backup Case Keenum got the start. Keenum will likely start again and for Thielen owners that’s not all bad. Last week Thielen led the team in receptions (5), but for only 44 yards. Keenum started slow, but didn’t look all bad giving me the belief he may be serviceable this week and Thielen might be playable. At his price and going up against a Buccaneers secondary that allowed over 200 yards to wide receivers last week, you have to take a shot here with Thielen.

TE-Travis Kelce ($6,000): In two games Kelce has been greatly involved in the Chiefs passing game with 17 targets producing a line of 13/143/1. He’s the No.2 (PPR) fantasy tight end and coming off a strong week 2 performance. The way Andy Reid has been utilizing his big tight end through two weeks, the Chargers defense is going to have a tough time handling. And now Kelce has a nice compliment of weapons around him on the field to draw attention away, he should have another busy afternoon on Sunday

Flex-Ty Montgomery ($6,900): With bargain runners I have slotted, I was able to go a little higher with my flex and what a deal! Montgomery has seen plenty of work through two weeks and even if they dial it back a bit, he’ll still see plenty of touches this Sunday against the Bengals. Montgomery is No.4 (PPR) fantasy running back averaging 19.5 touches per game. Expect his workload to remain in line this week with the prospect of Randall Cobb out and Jordy Nelson possibly being slowed with a bruised quad.

D/ST-Steelers ($3,400): Playing by the numbers here. Steelers are well priced and the Bears offense has not played well. The Bears O-line has allowed only 5 sacks, but they have allowed the quarterback to take a ton of hits (18) in two games. And what do the Steelers do well; 9 sacks (ranked 3rd) and hit the quarterback 16 times this season (tied for 2nd most).

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 22nd 2017

Friday Evening Edition

Friday Fantasy Five

5 Things to Watch this Week

It’s another week of the NFL and after the fantastic Thursday Night game between the Rams and Niners we just witnessed, I can hardly wait for the Sunday action. It’s only week 3, so there’s still a full slate of 14 games on Sunday to be played.

This Sunday will get started a little earlier than usual with the London game between the Jaguars and Ravens. With things set to kick off at 3:30 am EST, make sure you set those alarms early and don’t forget to watch these 5 things this week;

#1 Quarterback Trevor Siemian versus the Bills defense

This will be the first real test for Siemian this season, on the road this week after what looked two cush home games. Siemian has been brilliant through two weeks completing 65 percent of his passing and throwing 6 touchdowns. He’s earned his way onto fantasy rosters, but is he worthy of a starting slot? The Bills defense is the 8th stingiest against opposing quarterbacks, so Siemian will be tested. Owners keep your eye on this one, if Siemian passes this test we may have to consider starting him on a weekly basis.

#2 Quarterback Cam Newton against the Saints

The Panthers offense does not yet look quite in sync, but they have managed to dispose of the Niners and Bills in consecutive weeks. Through 2 games the Panthers have only mustered two touchdowns. It makes you wonder how healthy is Cam. This week the Saints and their 32nd ranked defense will roll into town; Saints allow 32.5 points per game (worst in league) and over 500 yards of offense per game (worst in league). This should be a good measuring stick for how healthy Cam really is and how good this offense is. Right now everyone is steamrolling the Saints, if we don’t see the same from Cam and company, there may good cause to wonder, if not worry.

#3 Running back Leonard Fournette in London

Since you’re going to be up early anyway, pay attention to the Jaguars rookie running back Leonard Fournette. After his strong out of the gate week one performance against the Texans, Fournette was quieter in week 2 against the Titans. Fournette is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, but through two weeks he’s also averaging 22.5 touches per games. As long as he continues to see that kind of volume, owners can relax. He faces a tough test this week across the pond facing the Ravens stout run defense. Ravens have allowed the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and have not surrendered a rushing touchdown yet. The Jags passing offense was subpar last week to say the least, so they should be leaning heavily on ground game with Fournette; this should be fun to watch.

#4 Big Ben and the Steelers offense

In a nutshell, it’s time to rev the engine. The Steelers boast some of the most dynamic and explosive skill players on offense. It’s time for Big Ben and company to break out. Through two weeks we’ve seen some signs that this offense is getting ready to heat up; week one it was Antonio Brown, in week two Martavis Bryant turned it up and Le’Veon Bell logged 27 carries. Could this be the week all the pieces fall into place and the offense goes nuts? Fantasy owners certainly hope so. Even though this matchup is on the road, there’s a good chance it happens. The Bears defense ranks 24th in the league, allowing 26 points and 340 yards of offense per game. Let’s keep a watch on this one, it could get entertaining.

#5 The Raiders secondary against the Redskins passing offense

In other words, let’s see how quarterback Kirk Cousins performs this week. Cousins and the offense have now had several weeks to shake the rust, it’s time to show us who they are; relevant or bust. Let’s put it this way, the Rams quarterback Jared Goff had more fantasy points entering his week 3 matchup. Through two weeks Cousins is the No.24 fantasy QB and his numbers in both weeks have been quiet. The Raiders secondary is leaky and we’ve seen this. Through two weeks their numbers haven’t been all bad, but they are allowing the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and a 63.1 completion percentage. It’s go big or go home for the Redskins passing game.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 21st 2017

Thursday Evening Edition

Thursday’s Twitter Takes

If you are playing DFS this week, both quarterbacks Jared Goff (Rams) and Brian Hoyer (Niners) are to be avoided. While neither faces a dominant defense tonight, we’ve not see enough consistency from either to pull the trigger.

“Goff and Hoyer are off the fantasy radar tonight” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Rams running back Todd Gurley has looked like a pretty good fantasy pick through two weeks. If you’ve invested in his fantasy stock this season, feel confident with his potential gains tonight against the Niners run defense that’s allowed the 9th most rushing yards this season.

“Roll with the Gurley-man on Thursday night. He’ll get the work in to put up numbers.” by @FantsySprtsHome

Niners Carlos Hyde is a Thursday favorite and strong play tonight. The Rams run defense was decimated a week ago and ranks last against running backs, allowing a staggering 295 yards rushing in two games. Hyde ranks as the No.12 fantasy running back in PPR; look out Top-10 and Dr. Jekyll, here comes Hyde.

“Dr. Jekyll better warn the Rams run defense (ranked 30th), here comes Hyde! by @FantsySprtsHome

The only pass catchers I am endorsing tonight, are (Niners) Pierre Garcon and (Rams) Cooper Kupp. Both are highly risky plays and regardless of salary value, I would avoid in DFS. Both could be considered as long shot flex options in larger leagues and only because both will see a fair share of targets in their respective passing game.

“Not much value tonight, but if you’re looking for fliers, Watkins, Kupp & Garcon are the only with any value” by @FantsySprtsHome

The Rams wide receiver Sammy Watkins is an exceptional big play talent that the team will hope to exploit soon. Unfortunately right now Watkins is like a ticking bomb counting down; eventually the clock is going to hit zero and he’ll explode. The only problem for fantasy owners, we just don’t know when. Playing him right now is an unnecessary risk, so exercise patience.

“Watkins ready to explode? Who knows. Owners must be patient and sit him for now” by @FantsySprtsHome

All in all I expect tonight’s matchup to be worthy of the long historical rivalry between these two franchises and while it certainly doesn’t shape up to be, I would not be surprised with a higher scoring contest than what is being advertised.

All plays are risky, especially on those on the short week (Thursday night), but remember both teams are now under offensive minded regimes.

Go Shanahan and McVay.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega