FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 6 STARTS & SITS

October 14th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 6: 

Starts & Sits

Each week fantasy owners are going to be faced with the decision of whether to start or sit some of the fringe players whose fantasy scoring of late and for the season is not quite on par as a starter. A slow start this season, a series of bad matchups, or just over-hyped, whatever the reason for the fringe players performances owners will still need to make the call to roll the dice or move along.

There are 14 games on the remaining schedule for Week 6 and 13 are on the slate for Sunday. And don’t forget the early game in London between the Ravens and Titans. Here are my Week 6, Starts and Sits.

Week 6 Starts

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) - The Jaguars quarterback has yet to break out this season, but he did have one of his best games for yards last week, passing for over 300-yards. Lawrence will square off against a Colts defense that has allowed the 3rd most passing yards this season.

Kirk Cousins (Vikings) - The Vikings passer will face a Bears defense that allows the 2nd most passing yards this season and has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) - He’s coming off a strong Week 5 performance and should have his full complement of weapons this week with the return of Mike Evans.

Sam Howell (Commanders) - In this road matchup with the Falcons, Howell and the Commanders may have to lean more on the passing game. 92 pass attempts for Howell in his past two starts.

Kyren Williams (Rams) - Williams is the fantasy RB11. This week he gets the Cardinals run defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

D’Andre Swift (Eagles) - The Eagles runner has cooled off the past couple of weeks, but a matchup with the Jets could get things heated once again. Jets allow over 4.0 yards per carry and the 9th most fantasy points to opposing runners.

Zay Flowers (Ravens) - The Ravens receiver has been targeted 25 times over the past three weeks and is averaging double digit fantasy points.

DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) - Coming off his best game of the season in week 5 with 8 receptions for 140 yards on 11 targets, Hopkins will look to keep it going against a Ravens secondary that has allowed 6th most receptions to opposing wideouts.

Jonnu Smith (Falcons) - The Falcons tight end has been steady averaging 7 targets per game for the last three weeks.

 

Zach Ertz (Cardinals) - Ertz has a nice matchup against a Rams defense that has allowed the most receiving yards and fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Week 6 Sits

Jared Goff (Lions) - A tough road matchup this week against a Bucs defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the past two weeks.

CJ Stroud (Texans) - The Texans starter came back to earth last week and has another tough matchup this week against the Saints defense that allows the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Rachaad White (Buccaneers) - White has a tough matchup this week against one of the league’s best run defenses this season. The Lions have allowed the 4th fewest yards per game and 3rd fewest per carry this season.

Jerome Ford & Kareem Hunt (Browns) - Without their starting quarterback, this offense could really struggle and with the 49ers defense playing well, I just don’t trust this backfield.

Amari Cooper (Browns) - It’s not enough that the Browns are facing the 49ers (4th best defense in the league), but they will be without starter Deshaun Watson. It’s hard to sit Cooper, but I wouldn't expect much from him.

Hunter Henry (Patriots) - After a hot start this season, Henry has gone cold along with the Patriots offense. For now the bench is the best place until the offense starts to show more consistency.

Darren Waller (Giants) - The Giants will be without the services of starting quarterback Daniel Jones and Waller (groin) popped up on the injury report this week.  It will be tough to trust him if he is able to play.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WINS

September 26th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football Wins!

(NFL Week 3)

This is always one of the fun parts following the weekend, when I can look back at my successes. There will always be those players locked-in your lineups, but I consider some of these players as those that may or may not be in lineups; and they should be and shouldn’t be.

Cousins is fantasy gold.

QB-Kirk Cousins (QB4) - Despite the team’s lack of success in the win column, as long as Cousins is the starter and he has Justin Jefferson available, he’s a must-start in fantasy. The guy has been pure fantasy gold, finishing in the top each of the first three weeks.

The Cowboys running back continues to play like a star.

RB-Tony Pollard (RB13) - The Cowboys running back has been a star thus far this season. On Sunday he turned in another solid performance rushing for 122 yards. For the season Pollard is the fantasy RB9.

As expected, another quiet day.

RB-AJ Dillon (RB52) - The Packers desperately need Aaron Jones back. In the two games without Jones, Dillon has been a dud. In the two games without Jones available, Dillon has finished outside the Top-50 fantasy running backs. He belongs on your bench for the time being.

The Jets passing game is non-existent.

WR-Allen Lazard (WR59) - The Jets wide receiver caught three balls for 39 yards on Sunday. As long as the offense struggles, Lazard is going to remain fantasy irrelevant. For the season he’s fantasy receiver No.73. He can be dropped.

The Chiefs receiver room is a mess.

WR-Kadarius Toney (WR100) - The Chiefs wideout has clearly been a disappointment thus far this season. It’s still early in the season and his quarterback is Patrick Mahomes, but sitting at fantasy WR102 with just 7 catches for 35 yards to this point, he can’t be trusted. It’s safe to drop him.

The Texans rookie continues to play well.

WR-Tank Dell (WR6) - The Texans rookie wide receiver was big on Sunday, recording 5 receptions for 145 yards, including a 68-yard touchdown reception. This was the second straight week Dell has finished as a Top-20 fantasy receiver. He's a must-start at this point.

Another quiet day for Titans tight end

TE-Chigozeim Okonkwo (TE25) - The Titans 2nd year tight end is off to a slow start this season. On Sunday was more of the same, catching three passes for 7 yards. For the season, with just 10 targets in three games Okonkwo sits at fantasy TE44. He shouldn’t be owned and not worth streaming.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING POSTS

September 24th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

NFL Sunday Week 3

(X – Shout Outs)

My Four Horsemen

These are the players I expect to shine on Sunday.

QB-Kirk Cousins - The Vikings signal caller is fantasy QB1 through two games. He has passed for 708 yards, with 6-1, TD to Int ratio. The Chargers defense allows the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing QBs.

RB-Kenneth Walker - The Seahawks running back is tied for fantasy RB14 through two games. Walker is averaging 17 touches, 60.5 scrimmage yards, and a touchdown per game. The Panthers D has surrendered 5 scores (4 run, 1 catch) to the position.

WR-George Pickens - The talented Steelers receiver leads the team with 17 targets, 9 receptions, and 163 yards receiving thru two games. He faces a Raiders D that allows the highest completion rate to WRs - 83.8%.

TE-Sam LaPorta - The rookie tight end has 10 receptions, 102 yards receiving, no scores thru two games. With a less than 100% St.Brown, LaPorta could see a big uptick in his usage and offer great DFS value.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WEEK 3 FF START'EMS

September 23rd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football Week 3

Start’Ems

My Week 3 Starts for Sunday and Monday.

This week has a number of nice matchups with the probability of a lot of points, from the Charger & Vikings game, to the Lions & Falcons game, to the Eagles & Buccaneers game,and finally the Rams & Bengals. It’s hard to not get excited about the amount of offense we could see this weekend. With all that excitement, fantasy owners want to make sure they have the right players in their lineups on Sunday. These are some of the players I am most excited about and will have in my lineups (redraft, Dynasty, or DFS) this weekend & Monday.

QB-Kirk Cousins (Vikings) - The Vikings signal caller has been money for fantasy owners through two weeks. Cousin currently ranks as fantasy QB1, passing for 708 yards and throwing six touchdowns in two games. This week the Vikings are home and will play host to the Chargers. Cousins will take his shot at a Chargers defense that has allowed 712 yards passing (most allowed) and the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. He’s a must-start.

RB-Najee Harris (Steelers) - Through two games this season, by the eye test Harris has not looked good, but the numbers tell a different story. Harris has only rushed for 74 yards this season without a score, and caught 3 passes for 2 yards receiving. The silver lining, in his limited usage through two games he is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. This matchup on Sunday against the Raiders sets up as a great opportunity for Harris to get going. The Raiders defense ranks 29th against the run allowing better than 5 yards per carry. Start Harris.

WR-Michael Pittman Jr (Colts) - The Colts leading receiver Michael Pittman Jr is currently the fantasy WR12. In two games this season Pittman has 16 receptions and 153 yards receiving on 23 targets. He is the teams go-to receiver and this Sunday I expect the team will look his way often going up against a Ravens secondary that has allowed the 2nd most receptions to opposing wide receivers. Even with Anthony Richardson out this week, (Gardner) Minshew to Pittman works. Start Pittman and get him in your DFS lineups too.

WR-Tank Dell (Texans) - While most of the attention has been on wide receiver Nico Collins (warranted), fantasy owners should also be paying attention to Tank Dell. Quietly the rookie receiver has been working his way into fantasy relevance, currently slotting in at fantasy WR29, good enough for WR3/flex consideration. Dell has 10 receptions for 104 receiving yards with a receiving touchdown. He’s got a nice matchup this week and should be in lineups-start him.

TE-Hunter Henry (Patriots) - I am rolling the dice with this one, third time's a charm. Henry has been the top fantasy tight end the past two weeks, can he make it three in a row? I am not banking on that factor, but I do believe with such a juicy matchup Henry will produce. Henry faces a Jets defense that has been vulnerable in the Red Zone allowing two receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. Start Henry, again.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Night Edition

November 2nd 2019

Week 9 Fantasy Notes

By the Numbers

The Vikings Quarterback, Kirk Cousins is currently the Fantasy QB13, through 8 weeks, but over the past several weeks he’s been a little bit better. Over the past 4 weeks, Cousins has completed 78.4 percent of his passes (1st in the NFL), passed for 1,262 yards (3rd in the NFL), averaged 10.9 yards per pass (leads the NFL), all the while throwing 10 touchdowns (tied for most) with only one pick. In this span, Cousins is the Fantasy QB5, heading into a week 9 matchup against the Chiefs.

Quietly, through 8 weeks, the Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette is the Fantasy RB5. Fournette is averaging 98.9 rushing and another 32.9 yards receiving per game. In 8 weeks, Fournette has toted the rock 163 times (leads NFL) and caught 35 passes (ranks 4th in the league). With just one rushing touchdown in 8 games, Fournette is still the Fantasy RB5; a big second half of the season sounds likely.

It has been a down season, in a huge way for the Broncos offense, but one bright spot has been, second year wide receiver Courtland Sutton. Through 8 weeks, the Broncos pass catcher is the Fantasy WR13, with 39 receptions (ranks 13th among receivers), 636 yards receiving (ranks 8th among receivers), and 3 receiving touchdowns. His 10.6 yards per target ranks 10th among receivers with a minimum of 24 target. Sutton has been solid and consistent in the first half of the season, but with the pending quarterback change coming, it will be interesting to see how he performs.

Two surprises this season, but no longer secrets are tight end Darren Waller (Raiders) and Mark Andrews (Ravens). Out of the gate these two have made their names this season and by this time, we’ve all heard of them, so here’s what they are doing. In 7 games this season Waller is the fantasy TE3 and Andrews is the Fantasy TE6. Waller’s 46 receptions ranks 2nd among tight ends, while Andrews is 7th with 36 receptions. Andrews ranks 5th in the league among tight ends with 449 yards receiving, with Waller coming in at 4th with 496 receiving yards. These two are clearly top tight ends and should be strong going forward in the second half of the season.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Morning Edition
October 6th 2019

Sunday Morning Gametime

Who to Start?

These are some of the players I am starting today, for my Week 5 lineups;

Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins, Min; I just love the matchup and the opportunity for the Vikings offense to get their passing game off the ground. The running game should remain healthy, but I am looking for several big plays from Cousins in the passing game.

Carson Wentz, PHI; The Eagles quarterback has been on point this early completing 61 percent of his passes, averaging 240 yards passing with 9 touchdowns on the season. Wentz is currently the No.5 scoring quarterback in fantasy. Trust in Wentz.

Running backs
Tarik Cohen, CHI; The Bears are facing a pretty good Raiders run defense, but with the absence of wide receiver Taylor Gabriel, I expect to see quite a bit of Cohen lining up in the slot. Back in week one Cohen was targeted 10 times; we could see similar numbers today.

Aaron Jones, GB; With the injury to running back Jamal Williams, it could be the Aaron Jones show today against a good Cowboys defense. Where I like Jones today, is in the pass game; Cowboys have allowed the 8th most receptions to the running back. Another silver lining, the Cowboys have not been great stopping the run, allowing 4.5 yards per carry.

Wide Receivers
Chris Godwin, TB; This is a no-brainer for me. Godwin, the No.3 fantasy scoring WR (PPR format) has been nothing short of terrific this season. Today may not be another big game because he lines up along side with the No.5 fantasy wide receiver Mike Evans. The numbers indicate he’s a safe play averaging more than 8 targets per game.

Stefon Diggs, MIN; For many of the same reasons I am rolling with Cousins, I have to insert Diggs today. The talented wide receiver is coming off a career season in 2018, but is off to a slow start. Today could be the jump start he and the passing offense need.

Tight Ends
Jared Cook, NO; I have been riding with Cook for several weeks and losing patience. He has a great matchup today against the Bucs who allow the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Cook has yet to breakout this season, today could be his day.

Noah Fant, DEN; This is purely a gut feel and lack of options. Not to knock the kid out of Iowa (the No. 23 fantasy TE), he’s quietly been pretty good and I believe he’ll continue his rise. Fant is averaging just a tick under 4 targets per game in an offense that is due to breakout. Last week Fant scored his first NFL touchdown, showcasing some of his athletic skills. Today could be another step forward.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Night Edition
September 21st 2019

Week 3: Four Horsemen

The are my week 3 starters, I’m riding with;

QB-Kirk Cousins, Vikings: It’s been a bit of a rough start this season for the Vikings passer, 25th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. Cousins has just 328 yards passing (ranks 30th), 22 completions (ranks 32nd), and 3 turnovers in two games. The start has been brutal, but a Week 3 matchup at home against the Raiders could offer some cure. The Raiders have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 711 passing yards and 68% completions over the first two weeks.

RB-Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys: This is an easy call for Week 3. The Cowboys have been rolling this season and much of their success has been without the impact of Elliott. Last week Zeke (RB12 through two weeks) saw 53 snaps and was effective on the ground with 111 yards rushing. His Week 3 matchup against the Dolphins (ranked 31st against the run) could see even greater success; Zeke looks poised for a big Sunday.

WR-Stefon Diggs, Vikings: If Kirk Cousins is going to bounce back in Week 3, he’s going to need targets to throw to on Sunday. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs and his quarterback have had a few near misses for huge gains; it’s just a matter of time. Diggs (WR71, PPR scoring) has been slow out of the gate, with just 11 targets through two games; this will change. The Raiders have allowed the 4th most fantasy points and 4th most receiving yards to opposing receivers; look for a breakout game from Diggs (and AdamThielen).

TE-Vance McDonald, Steelers: The Steelers are without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who exited week 2 with an elbow injury, ending his season. With Big Ben sidelined and backup Mason Rudolph under center, Vance McDonald (TE5, PPR scoring) was a busy target in Week 2. McDonald played 52 snaps and caught 7 passes on 7 targets for 38 yards receiving with two scores. Although his matchup this week is not the best, his connection with his quarterback appears solid and could to another big Sunday.

The 5th Musketeer

Flex play-(RB) Raheem Mostert, 49ers: The Niners running back currently ranks as the fantasy RB17, PPR scoring, and with the Steelers up next, he has a chance to continue his climb up the fantasy scoring ladder. Through two games the Steelers defense has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, as well as more than 100 yards rushing per game. Mostert has been a solid ball carrier this season with 123 rushing yards and a 5.6 yards per carry average; he should get plenty of run on Sunday.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Morning Edition
September 8th, 2019

Sunday Morning Gametime

I am reading the Twitter updates, checking all of the popular sites for fantasy football news, and from these sources, I have some Week one notes to share when considering setting your Fantasy Football lineup…

(RB) Chris Carson in the Seahawks heavy run offense versus the Bengals defense today. Cincinnati allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing running backs last season (NFL scoring).

(RB)  Leonard Fournette against the Chiefs defense. Last season the Chiefs allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs (NFL scoring), including 4.9 yards per carry and 6 receiving touchdowns (tied for the most in the league).

(WR) Chris Godwin against the Niners secondary today, with Mike Evans (slated to play) under the weather. Last season the Niners defense allowed a league high 27 receiving touchdowns to opposing receivers.

(RB) Le’Veon Bell against the Bills defense today. The Bills defense surrendered the 8th most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2018, including 21 total touchdowns (2nd most in the league).


My Fave DFS Lineup Week One

Every week I play DFS, because let’s face it, I am a football addict and love the NFL. I watch the games, I root for the players, and every week I piss a few dollars away; but it’s fun. Well the playing part, not the pissing dollars away. Here’s one of my favorite line-ups for Sunday Week One!
Fave DFS play Week One

QB-Kirk Cousin, Min; love the matchup, last season Falcons allowed most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (NFL).

RB-Chris Carson, Sea; Carson has a tasty matchup today against the Bengals.

RB-Kerryon Johnson, Det; This is a great opportunity and favorable matchup for Johnson, hoping to see 20-25 touches.

WR-Chris Godwin, TB; This matchup could be a shootout, Godwin could be in line for 8-10 targets.

WR-Mike Williams, LAC; defense will be focused on the Chargers other weapons as well, Williams should see a number of red-zone opportunities today.

WR-Odell Beckham Jr; A gambling move, but can’t resist the opportunity to own a share of OBJ. He seems like a good bet to find pay-dirt today.

TE-Delanie Walker, Ten; Walker is healthy and has a great matchup against a Browns secondary that allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing TEs last season (NFL scoring)

Flex-Davlin Cook, Min; Cook looks healthy and could be looking at a big season. He should get off to a fast start today against a Falcons defense that allowed 4th highest fantasy points to opposing RBs in 2018.

Def-Seattle; I like this matchup for the Seahawks, especially at home today.


That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Monday Evening Edition
August 26th, 2019

Late Round Fliers: Favorite Sleepers and Such

[Diamonds in the Rough]

NY Jets, Running Back Ty Montgomery

Currently coming off the board (Full PPR) as the RB58 at ADP #157.2 (according to FFC), the Jets back-up running back is a steal. Even with running back Le’Veon Bell in the lead-dog position in New York, Montgomery is going to see action because of his versatility as a runner and pass catcher. At the very least I think he can be a reliable low value flex play with potential upside. If Bell should miss any time, Montgomery would see an increase work-share. Don’t get me wrong, Bell figures to dominate touches in the backfield, but Montgomery has enough talent and skill he could work his way onto the field every week. At the very least he figures to be a great hand-cuff you can snag late and may even offer some stand alone value.

NY Jets, Quarterback Sam Darnold

Let’s not get carried away here, I am not thinking the Jets will have a juggernaut offense in 2019, but I do believe they will be in the upper half. Their young quarterback (Darnold) is a budding star in this league and this offseason he’s been given a few new toys. At the close of 2018, Darnold showed flashes as a top 12 Fantasy QB over his last 3 starts; 5 touchdown passes, no interceptions, and 102.8 passer rating. Add an elite pass catcher out of the backfield like Bell (160 receptions his last two seasons played), wide receiver Jamison Crowder (already showing strong chemistry with his QB) in the slot, and tight end Chris Herndon (suspended for the first four games) when he returns and Darnold will have plenty of weapons in 2019. He’s an absolute heist going as #QB23, ADP 161.7 (FFC). He’s absolutely worth a stash on your bench in deeper leagues and could be a difference maker down the stretch for fantasy owners.

SF 49ers, Wide receiver Marquise Goodwin

In his last 5 games in 2017, with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo under center, Goodwin was number 13 fantasy receiver in full PPR (stat line; 29 catches, 384 yards receiving, 1 touchdown, 43 targets). He’s currently coming off the boards at ADP 164.1, #WR64 (FFC) and he’s projected to be a starter heading into the regular season. There have been plenty of whispers about some of the other receivers in San Francisco, but Goodwin has history with Garoppolo. If Jimmy G can get his legs under him, these two could once again find that chemistry for 2017. Going as deep as Goodwin is in drafts, he’s a must pick up late.

Buffalo Bills, Wide Receiver John Brown

Over the past several seasons, Brown has become kind of a training camp folk hero. Every year it seems, we hear the whispers of how good Brown looks in camp. There’s no question, Brown has big play talent and skill, health has always been his nemesis. Well he’s healthy again this offseason (as he was last season) and once again he’s looking great in camp. The difference this season is the big arm under center in Buffalo (Josh Allen) and the great rapport and connection the two are showing. There’s not another real established receiver in Buffalo ahead of Brown, so another difference this season is “Opportunity.” Brown who is coming off the boards at ADP 145.5, #WR57 (FFC), has a chance to lead this team in receiving. He’s another starter with breakout potential, that you can snag very late in drafts.

Minnesota Vikings, Quarterback Kirk Cousins??

For the money he’s getting paid, he may not be worth, but as a fantasy starting QB, I disagree. Cousins is coming off the boards late #QB18, ADP 138.7 (FFC). He has the weapons in wide receivers Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and tight end Kyle Rudolph, add the return of running back Dalvin Cook (who looked great in the team’s third preseason game) and Cousins will put up numbers. Last season was a down year for Cousins, but he still finished as the number 12 fantasy QB; this after finishing 6th in 2017 and 5th in 2016. I like his outlook and believe in his ability to produce. Call this a gut feeling, but I got a feeling.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega