FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WHIFFS

September 11th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Monday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Whiffs!

(NFL Week 1)

I was down on Darnell

Darnell Mooney (WR) - The Bears receiver is still Justin Fields' go-to guy. In a low-volume passing game, Fields only attempted 13 passes to his receivers and Mooney was the recipient (7) times. I missed on this one, Mooney should be owned.

I didn't like Jimmy G.

Jimmy Garappolo (QB) - He’s still Mr.GQ Smooth and on Sunday Jimmy G showed he’s a winner. Garappolo passed for 200 yards and tossed two scores to finish as the No.14 fantasy QB on Sunday. He's a fringe QB1 in deeper leagues with some upside potential.

I was expecting a lot from him in the passing game

Antonio Gibson (RB) - The Commanders running back was a complete dud on Sunday. Gibson contributed just four touches for 19 total yards and a turnover. He played in just 25 snaps (35.2%) on Sunday.

I was not on the hype train.

Bijan Robinson (RB) - I was not on the hype-train during the preseason. I didn’t doubt this kid’s talent or ability, just wasn’t hyping him up and getting excited. I know it’s only one game, but he was impressive enough for me to say I was wrong about him - he’s pretty good.

I liked Johnson's matchup in week 1.

Juwan Johnson (TE) - The Saints tight end was a non-factor on Sunday, getting targeted just five times. Johnson finished the day with three catches for 36 yards. He’s best on fantasy owners benches for now.

These were a few of my week one misses. Hopefully I can improve my numbers as we forward into the season.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 9th, 2023

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 1

Sit’ems

1. Jimmy G, QB (LVR) - This will be a tough road matchup for Jimmy G. And although I am not down on him this season, afterall he has Davante to throw to, I just feel better about other options. I’d prefer to sit Jimmy G here and see how he plays first, and roll in another direction

2. Gabe Davis, WR (BUF) - I will admit, I watched “Hard Knocks” this season and I am a fan of the Jets D. I really believe they will be tough. I’m not so sure about the 85-86 Bears, but they will be a problem for opponents and likely Gabe Davis in Week 1. I see the Bills still taking shots at Sauce Gardner with Diggs, but I also see quarterback Josh Allen spreading the ball all around. Also Davis caught 5 passes for 64 yards in two games against the Jets in 2022.

3. Matthew Stafford, QB (LAR) - With no Cooper Kupp and even questions in my mind about how healthy and strong Stafford is, since returning from a shortened 2022 season due to injury, he’s a wait and see start for me. I like the matchups for quarterbacks like Derek Carr, Jordan Love, and even Baker Mayfield ahead of Stafford who will be on the road.

4. Darnell Mooney, WR (CHI) - The Bears passing game is a low-volume proposition and with the arrival of DJ Moore in the offseason and the addition of Chase Claypool last season, leaves Mooney’s outlook a little murky heading into week 1. I’d rather see how these receivers are used and how much volume Mooney demands before I roll him out. Receivers like Diontae Johnson, Courtland Sutton, and the rookie Jordan Addison have more appeal.

5. Zach Ertz, TE (ARI) - No quarterback Kyler Murray in this one and a banged-up Ertz, does not instill a lot of confidence. There are safer streaming options that I would feel more comfortable with on Sunday, like Juwan Johnson (Saints), Logan Thomas (Commanders), or even Greg Dulcich (Broncos).

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 28th, 2023

Monday Evening Edition

On My Radar: Draft Day Targets

Now that the draft season has heated up, it’s time to talk about my Draft Day targets. These are the players that I will be looking to take at the right time during my several upcoming drafts. I want value, but I am also looking for opportunity with upside.

Diving in deep, let’s start with the early rounds.

I’ve only participated in a couple of drafts thus far this season. But as I read some of the latest news and watch all of the preseason action, the word on the Fantasy Football Street is wide receivers are going early. It’s not hard to make this argument when you consider the top two consensus receivers are the Vikings Justin Jefferson (128 receptions in 2022) and the Bengals Ja’Marr Chase (over 20 FPG in 2022).

In most of my drafts, I am slotted beyond the 6th spot, so with the receiving landscape being so rich in talent the receiver I am most interested in taking as a last first or early 2nd round pick is Davante Adams. Over the past three seasons Adams has averaged 1,481 yards receiving, 14.3 receiving touchdowns, and 112.6 receptions each season. In his first year in Las Vegas his production level was on par with these averages. In 2022 his finished as the third highest scoring fantasy wide receiver playing in all 17 games. Even with a new quarterback (Jimmy Garappolo) this season, I don’t see a big fall off for Adams. Even with a 5-8% regression he finishes as a top 5 wideout. He’s a safe pick with great value.

Still in the early rounds, two running backs that I have been seeing around the 3rd and 4th round turn are (Packers) Aaron Jones and (Cardinals) James Conner. Both backs offer RB1 value, each finishing in the top 12 last season in fantasy points per game. Jones registered over 1,500 yards from scrimmage in 2022, while Conner finished as a top 10 fantasy running back. Both are going late enough you can bypass in the first two rounds pick up Jones in the late 3rd or grab Conner a little later in the 4th.

As we skate along into the mid-rounds, this about the time to start looking for my tight end and this season my sights are set on the Giants Darren Waller. Listening to a lot of Training camp talk on the radio and TV, there’s a buzz around Waller in New York. Looking back at his 2019 and 2020 seasons with the Raiders, Waller stormed onto the fantasy scene posting TE1 numbers, finishing as the No.5 fantasy tight end in 2019 and No.2 in 2020. Last season was a bust playing in the shadow of (Davante) Adams, but now that he’s in New York, Waller absolutely has the talent to be the number one option for quarterback Daniel Jones.

Finally, this Draft Day target is not a late round flyer, but in my opinion possibly a steal in the 7th round or later, Steelers wide receiver George Pickens. In my opinion, Pickens is dynamic and showed a lot of flash last season when given the opportunity. Last season compared to other receivers with at least 80 targets, Pickens finished 6th in yards per reception with 15.4 yards per catch. His quarterback has been looking good this preseason and figures to take a few steps forward, so I am expecting good things from Pickens. Last season he finished as the No.52 fantasy wideout, this season I believe he could make a leap to a borderline WR2/WR3 (12 team leagues). 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Monday Evening Edition
August 26th, 2019

Late Round Fliers: Favorite Sleepers and Such

[Diamonds in the Rough]

NY Jets, Running Back Ty Montgomery

Currently coming off the board (Full PPR) as the RB58 at ADP #157.2 (according to FFC), the Jets back-up running back is a steal. Even with running back Le’Veon Bell in the lead-dog position in New York, Montgomery is going to see action because of his versatility as a runner and pass catcher. At the very least I think he can be a reliable low value flex play with potential upside. If Bell should miss any time, Montgomery would see an increase work-share. Don’t get me wrong, Bell figures to dominate touches in the backfield, but Montgomery has enough talent and skill he could work his way onto the field every week. At the very least he figures to be a great hand-cuff you can snag late and may even offer some stand alone value.

NY Jets, Quarterback Sam Darnold

Let’s not get carried away here, I am not thinking the Jets will have a juggernaut offense in 2019, but I do believe they will be in the upper half. Their young quarterback (Darnold) is a budding star in this league and this offseason he’s been given a few new toys. At the close of 2018, Darnold showed flashes as a top 12 Fantasy QB over his last 3 starts; 5 touchdown passes, no interceptions, and 102.8 passer rating. Add an elite pass catcher out of the backfield like Bell (160 receptions his last two seasons played), wide receiver Jamison Crowder (already showing strong chemistry with his QB) in the slot, and tight end Chris Herndon (suspended for the first four games) when he returns and Darnold will have plenty of weapons in 2019. He’s an absolute heist going as #QB23, ADP 161.7 (FFC). He’s absolutely worth a stash on your bench in deeper leagues and could be a difference maker down the stretch for fantasy owners.

SF 49ers, Wide receiver Marquise Goodwin

In his last 5 games in 2017, with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo under center, Goodwin was number 13 fantasy receiver in full PPR (stat line; 29 catches, 384 yards receiving, 1 touchdown, 43 targets). He’s currently coming off the boards at ADP 164.1, #WR64 (FFC) and he’s projected to be a starter heading into the regular season. There have been plenty of whispers about some of the other receivers in San Francisco, but Goodwin has history with Garoppolo. If Jimmy G can get his legs under him, these two could once again find that chemistry for 2017. Going as deep as Goodwin is in drafts, he’s a must pick up late.

Buffalo Bills, Wide Receiver John Brown

Over the past several seasons, Brown has become kind of a training camp folk hero. Every year it seems, we hear the whispers of how good Brown looks in camp. There’s no question, Brown has big play talent and skill, health has always been his nemesis. Well he’s healthy again this offseason (as he was last season) and once again he’s looking great in camp. The difference this season is the big arm under center in Buffalo (Josh Allen) and the great rapport and connection the two are showing. There’s not another real established receiver in Buffalo ahead of Brown, so another difference this season is “Opportunity.” Brown who is coming off the boards at ADP 145.5, #WR57 (FFC), has a chance to lead this team in receiving. He’s another starter with breakout potential, that you can snag very late in drafts.

Minnesota Vikings, Quarterback Kirk Cousins??

For the money he’s getting paid, he may not be worth, but as a fantasy starting QB, I disagree. Cousins is coming off the boards late #QB18, ADP 138.7 (FFC). He has the weapons in wide receivers Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and tight end Kyle Rudolph, add the return of running back Dalvin Cook (who looked great in the team’s third preseason game) and Cousins will put up numbers. Last season was a down year for Cousins, but he still finished as the number 12 fantasy QB; this after finishing 6th in 2017 and 5th in 2016. I like his outlook and believe in his ability to produce. Call this a gut feeling, but I got a feeling.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega