FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

October 26th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup

I won’t pretend to be a prophet or have a crystal ball, but I have a feeling tonight’s matchup could lean heavily one way. The Bills are coming off a disappointing Week 7 loss to the Patriots and with some home cooking on a Thursday, this may be just what they need to bounce back. With three straight games with a pick, Josh Allen will be looking to turn that page.

On the other side, the Buccaneers also suffered a Week 7 home loss to the Falcons, but a road tilt against the Bills may not be timely. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has remained middle of the pack as the fantasy QB17 much of this season, but he is coming off one of his better showings from a week ago. He will have his work cut out for him tonight against a hostile Bills crowd.

Here are my favorites for tonight;

Josh Allen (Bills-QB) Of course everything starts with the Bills signal caller. All things go through Allen and a big night I am predicting for the fantasy QB1. Allen squares off against a Bucs defense that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Allen should account for at least two scores tonight.

Latavius (Bill-RB) This one feels like one of those games where the Bills will move the ball well and set up a couple of goalline opportunities. I expect to see Bills running back James Cook to have success between the 20’s, setting up an opportunity or two for Murry to vulture a score tonight. Murray is on my DFS radar in this one.

Stefon Diggs (Bills-WR) It’s been the Allen-to-Diggs show this season and with a primetime matchup on the slate for Week 8, it should be more of the same. Diggs (fantasy WR2) is the second most targeted wide receiver in the NFL this season, so it should be business as usual for this duo. Diggs baseline is six catches for 60 yards and a touchdown. He’s a lock to put up similar numbers tonight.

Mike Evans (Buccaneers-WR) The Bills secondary of late has proven to be a little shaky. Evans (fantasy WR14), with his size, will be a matchup nightmare, especially in the Red Zone. Evans is averaging 9 targets per game over his last two outings, so he should see a steady diet of looks in this one.

Dalton Kincaid (Bills-TE) Coming off his best game and fantasy showing this season, the Bills rookie tight end will look to build off this momentum tonight. With veteran tight end Dawson Know already shelved, Kincaid could see an increased role tonight that pays dividends for fantasy owners.

That’s My Take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: 10 THINGS FOR NFL SUNDAY

October 1st, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

10 Things for Sunday

NFL Sunday week 4 is set to start in a couple of hours. I’ve got my coffee poured, the TV tubes are fired up, watching the game in London, and I am combing over the day’s slate of games.

There are some great divisional matchups today with some potential fireworks in the forecast. We’ve got the Phins traveling north to face the Bills, the Ravens will enter the Dawg Pound today, and it’s always fun to watch the Raiders & Chargers in an AFC West clash.

The fridge is full, I’ve got my eggs on the skillet, and I am getting ready for my second cup of coffee. While I am looking over today’s docket, here are the Top-10 things on my mind as I await the kickoff to NFL Sunday Week 4;

1. “Will the Bears score 70” - Last week was not good for the Broncos defense and the only good thing they have going today is the Bears are not the Dolphins. However the Broncos are going to miss a few key players on the defensive side and may be without safety Justin Simmons. Both defenses entering this contest have been bad, so this could end up being more of a higher scoring affair than advertised. The Bears quarterback Justin Fields will provide all sorts of problems for the defense and could keep the chains moving and on the other side, I expect to see the Broncos offense take some shots downfield with receivers Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims Jr.

2. “Will Allen and Company Shine” - This matchup is the Marquee matchup of the day. The Bills have been on a roll, but no offense has been as hot as the Dolphins. But of course in this matchup, it’s not the Broncos defense, the game will be played in Buffalo, and Josh Allen has been a little better than Russell Wilson recently. I am expecting a shootout of sorts, start all your Bills and Dolphins, and if you have space in the flex spot, start the Waterboy.

3. “Is it time to Bench Najee” - If Najee doesn’t show-out today, he may not get another chance this season. He’s been a disappointment for fantasy owners the first three weeks and he has running back Jaylen Warren nipping at his heels. Harris is going to need his quarterback to help him out in order to open some running lanes or he could be looking at another long day. I am not holding my breath. It could be time to see more Warren and less Harris.

4. “Can anyone stop JJ” - There’s not a lot to say other than Justin Jefferson has been fantasy gold Know for fantasy owners. In ppr format through three games he has scored no less than 24 fantasy points. Getting off the bus JJ already has a couple of catches in his pocket. He’s getting heavily targeted (12+ targets per game) and he is producing at an Elite ++ level with 9 receptions and 150 yards + per outing. I can’t imagine the Panthers slowing him down today, expect more of the ridiculous same.

5. “Unleash the Zack Attack” - Over the past two weeks, it’s been the Zack Moss show as he is averaging 27 touches per game. With the Rams rolling into town, I would expect much of the same, even with the return of quarterback Anthony Richardson. I am expecting the Colts to once again feature Moss and he should again finish in the neighborhood of 20+ touches.

6. “Start of Sit Mike Evans” - After his fast start this season, fantasy WR6 through three weeks, Evans is a must start. But today presents a challenge that is likely to frustrate fantasy owners. Evans has not been historically great against the Saints, it seems Marshon Lattimore and the Saints have had his number. Evans has to be in lineups today, but owners need to temper their expectations, it could be a long afternoon.

7. “Another Swift Sunday” - This will actually be Swift’s first Sunday, since taking over the lead role in the Eagles backfield. Swift has been great in the lead spot the last two games and behind the Eagles offensive line, he’s a good bet to keep the wheel spinning in week 4. He’s currently fantasy RB18 and trending his way to the top. He’s a must-start.

8. “The Return of Joe Cool” - It’s been a slow start for Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing game, but if ever there was a game to get right, this matchup in Tennessee could be it. The Titans rank 30th versus the pass and the Bengals pass game finally showed signs of life last Monday. Today sets up to be a great opportunity and weather should not play a factor. Fire up Joe Cool and the Bengals pass catchers.

9. “Don’t forget Josh Jacobs” -.No Jimmy G today, what do fantasy owners do with Davante Adams, start him of course. But don’t forget the Raiders also have Josh Jacobs. Adams will get his, but the Raiders offense may lean a little more today on Jacobs as they should. The Chargers are in the bottom 3rd of yards and fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Today should be a good day for Jacobs owners.

10. “CMC for MVP” - The Niners running back Christian McCaffrey has been spectacular this season leading the NFL with 353 rushing yards, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. He is also the number two fantasy running back, so he’s making a lot of fantasy owners smile. Today should just be another day at the office for CMC.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 31st, 2023

Thursday Evening Edition

My Top 10 Fantasy Football 

QB Rankings for 2023

The NFL kicks off in less than one week and this coming weekend promises to be the biggest draft weekend of the season. So with no time to lose here is my Top-10 Quarterbacks for the start of the 2023 season.

The Top-10

1. Patrick Mahomes

2. Josh Allen

3. Jalen Hurts

4. Joe Burrow

5. Lamar Jackson

6. Justin Fields

7. Justin Herbert

8. Trevor Lawrence

9. Deshaun Watson

10. Dak Prescott

Last season, quarterback Patrick Mahomes was sensational passing for over 5,000 yards for the 2022 regular season. But do you know who was better on a fantasy points-per-game basis? No, not Josh Allen, but Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. 

While the top three could be considered interchangeable, in 2022 Hurts broke out with a fantastic campaign, tossing 22 touchdowns, while completing 66.5% of his passes, and adding 13 rushing touchdowns. With that type of prolific production, I have Hurts ranked as number three, but he could easily vault to the top spot.

Last season, the Bears 2nd year quarterback Justin Fields took over the reins and went on an exceptional run of his own from weeks 7 through 15 (missing only week 12). During this stretch Fields posted 7 straight games with 19 or more fantasy points, including two games over 39. Fields finished as the No.6 fantasy quarterback in 2022 and has a good chance at repeating or improving in 2023.

The Browns starting quarterback Deshaun Watson, after missing the full 2021 season, played in less than half of the 2022 season, 6 games. The rust from his layoff showed last season, as Watson finished as the No.25 fantasy (points-per-game) scoring quarterback. This coming after finishing as the No.5 fantasy QB in 2020, his last full season played. With a full training camp under his belt and a full complement of weapons, Watson is poised for the Top-10 and could push for a Top-5 spot in 2023..

Just missing the Top-10, but still start-worthy in 12-team leagues are quarterbacks, (Dolphins) Tua Tagovailoa and (Giants) Daniel Jones. With the Dolphins passer, his health will be the biggest concern. As long as Tua stays healthy, he’s a Top-10 all day.

With the Giants signal caller, Jones just needs to build off his 2022 season (finished as the No.10 fantasy scoring QB). Six of his final eight games Jones scored no fewer than 17 fantasy points, eclipsing 20 points three times. Like Tua, Jones is a borderline Top-10.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Morning Edition
November 17th 2019

Sunday Morning Gametime

Numbers, Numbers, Numbers

The Bills Quarterback Josh Allen has a prime road matchup against the Dolphins, ranked 26th against opposing QBs, according to FanDuel. Allen has scored at least 17 fantasy points over his last five games and has a great chance to keep this trend going.

The Raiders rookie running back Josh Jacobs has been solid this season and will get the 29th ranked defense versus the running back in the Bengals. In his last two games Jacobs has totaled over 100 yards and scored three touchdowns. He has a very good opportunity to do both today.

The Falcons will have a new face starting in their backfield today with running back Brian Hill taking over ball-carrying duties for the injured Devonta Freeman out. Hill logged 20 carries last week replacing the injured Freeman and should see similar work today against the shaky Panthers run defense (ranked 30th against opposing running backs). Hill could be a nice sneaky play in DFS today.

The Texans top receiving target DeAndre Hopkins (PPR Fantasy WR7) has not been big this season, but he has been steady. Over his past three games Hopkins has logged at least 15 fantasy points (according to FanDuel) with at least 8 receptions. Hopkins will get the Ravens secondary (ranked 17th versus opposing wide receivers, according to FD) today and have a chance at keeping those steady numbers rolling.

Despite what should be a difficult road matchup against the Vikings today, the Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (PPR Fantasy WR14) has a chance to continue his solid 2019 campaign today facing the 27th ranked defense versus wide receivers. Sutton has had at least 6 targets in every game this season and has scored in double digit fantasy points in 7 straight games.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Monday Evening Edition
August 26th, 2019

Late Round Fliers: Favorite Sleepers and Such

[Diamonds in the Rough]

NY Jets, Running Back Ty Montgomery

Currently coming off the board (Full PPR) as the RB58 at ADP #157.2 (according to FFC), the Jets back-up running back is a steal. Even with running back Le’Veon Bell in the lead-dog position in New York, Montgomery is going to see action because of his versatility as a runner and pass catcher. At the very least I think he can be a reliable low value flex play with potential upside. If Bell should miss any time, Montgomery would see an increase work-share. Don’t get me wrong, Bell figures to dominate touches in the backfield, but Montgomery has enough talent and skill he could work his way onto the field every week. At the very least he figures to be a great hand-cuff you can snag late and may even offer some stand alone value.

NY Jets, Quarterback Sam Darnold

Let’s not get carried away here, I am not thinking the Jets will have a juggernaut offense in 2019, but I do believe they will be in the upper half. Their young quarterback (Darnold) is a budding star in this league and this offseason he’s been given a few new toys. At the close of 2018, Darnold showed flashes as a top 12 Fantasy QB over his last 3 starts; 5 touchdown passes, no interceptions, and 102.8 passer rating. Add an elite pass catcher out of the backfield like Bell (160 receptions his last two seasons played), wide receiver Jamison Crowder (already showing strong chemistry with his QB) in the slot, and tight end Chris Herndon (suspended for the first four games) when he returns and Darnold will have plenty of weapons in 2019. He’s an absolute heist going as #QB23, ADP 161.7 (FFC). He’s absolutely worth a stash on your bench in deeper leagues and could be a difference maker down the stretch for fantasy owners.

SF 49ers, Wide receiver Marquise Goodwin

In his last 5 games in 2017, with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo under center, Goodwin was number 13 fantasy receiver in full PPR (stat line; 29 catches, 384 yards receiving, 1 touchdown, 43 targets). He’s currently coming off the boards at ADP 164.1, #WR64 (FFC) and he’s projected to be a starter heading into the regular season. There have been plenty of whispers about some of the other receivers in San Francisco, but Goodwin has history with Garoppolo. If Jimmy G can get his legs under him, these two could once again find that chemistry for 2017. Going as deep as Goodwin is in drafts, he’s a must pick up late.

Buffalo Bills, Wide Receiver John Brown

Over the past several seasons, Brown has become kind of a training camp folk hero. Every year it seems, we hear the whispers of how good Brown looks in camp. There’s no question, Brown has big play talent and skill, health has always been his nemesis. Well he’s healthy again this offseason (as he was last season) and once again he’s looking great in camp. The difference this season is the big arm under center in Buffalo (Josh Allen) and the great rapport and connection the two are showing. There’s not another real established receiver in Buffalo ahead of Brown, so another difference this season is “Opportunity.” Brown who is coming off the boards at ADP 145.5, #WR57 (FFC), has a chance to lead this team in receiving. He’s another starter with breakout potential, that you can snag very late in drafts.

Minnesota Vikings, Quarterback Kirk Cousins??

For the money he’s getting paid, he may not be worth, but as a fantasy starting QB, I disagree. Cousins is coming off the boards late #QB18, ADP 138.7 (FFC). He has the weapons in wide receivers Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and tight end Kyle Rudolph, add the return of running back Dalvin Cook (who looked great in the team’s third preseason game) and Cousins will put up numbers. Last season was a down year for Cousins, but he still finished as the number 12 fantasy QB; this after finishing 6th in 2017 and 5th in 2016. I like his outlook and believe in his ability to produce. Call this a gut feeling, but I got a feeling.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega