FSH NOTEBOOK: DFS SATURDAY NIGHT

December 2nd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

DFS Saturday night

These are the names I like on Sunday, NFL Week 13. I’ll have each of these players sprinkled in and throughout my fantasy lineups, as well as stacked in several.

RB, Zack Moss (Colts) We’ve seen Moss do it before as the lead back and with Jonathan Taylor already ruled out, he’ll serve in that role once again. The Titan’s run defense has been a bit leaky as of late and with Moss handling the lion share of the duties on Sunday (averaged over 23 touches per game pre-Taylor), he’ll provide a safe floor.

RB, Najee Harris (Steelers) This week at home against the Cardinals 30the ranked run defense, this feels like a Najee Harris game. He’s coming off his best rushing game of the season with 99 yards on the ground and a score and he led the team with 15 carries. 

WR, Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) Through 11 games Hill has been unstoppable. In his last 7 games he’s had no fewer than 9 targets, caught fewer than 8 balls once, topped 100-yards receiving in five of the seven, and has scored in six of the seven. The Commanders have been amongst the worst pass defenses the past four weeks, and with a matchup against Hill it won’t get any better.

WR, Michael Pittman Jr (Colts) The Colts wide receiver has seen 8 or more targets in each of his last four games, including 12 or more in three of those. He has only eclipsed 100 yards in one of those contests, but with his high volume he has a safe floor with upside.

TE, Sam LaPorta (Lions) The Lions rookie tight end has a nice matchup on Sunday and he’s coming off a nice showing of 5 catches, 47 yards receiving and a score last week. LaPorta has seen at least 5 targets in his last six straight games and has posted double-digit fantast points (ppr) in 3 of his last 5.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: 10 THINGS FOR NFL SUNDAY

October 1st, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

10 Things for Sunday

NFL Sunday week 4 is set to start in a couple of hours. I’ve got my coffee poured, the TV tubes are fired up, watching the game in London, and I am combing over the day’s slate of games.

There are some great divisional matchups today with some potential fireworks in the forecast. We’ve got the Phins traveling north to face the Bills, the Ravens will enter the Dawg Pound today, and it’s always fun to watch the Raiders & Chargers in an AFC West clash.

The fridge is full, I’ve got my eggs on the skillet, and I am getting ready for my second cup of coffee. While I am looking over today’s docket, here are the Top-10 things on my mind as I await the kickoff to NFL Sunday Week 4;

1. “Will the Bears score 70” - Last week was not good for the Broncos defense and the only good thing they have going today is the Bears are not the Dolphins. However the Broncos are going to miss a few key players on the defensive side and may be without safety Justin Simmons. Both defenses entering this contest have been bad, so this could end up being more of a higher scoring affair than advertised. The Bears quarterback Justin Fields will provide all sorts of problems for the defense and could keep the chains moving and on the other side, I expect to see the Broncos offense take some shots downfield with receivers Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims Jr.

2. “Will Allen and Company Shine” - This matchup is the Marquee matchup of the day. The Bills have been on a roll, but no offense has been as hot as the Dolphins. But of course in this matchup, it’s not the Broncos defense, the game will be played in Buffalo, and Josh Allen has been a little better than Russell Wilson recently. I am expecting a shootout of sorts, start all your Bills and Dolphins, and if you have space in the flex spot, start the Waterboy.

3. “Is it time to Bench Najee” - If Najee doesn’t show-out today, he may not get another chance this season. He’s been a disappointment for fantasy owners the first three weeks and he has running back Jaylen Warren nipping at his heels. Harris is going to need his quarterback to help him out in order to open some running lanes or he could be looking at another long day. I am not holding my breath. It could be time to see more Warren and less Harris.

4. “Can anyone stop JJ” - There’s not a lot to say other than Justin Jefferson has been fantasy gold Know for fantasy owners. In ppr format through three games he has scored no less than 24 fantasy points. Getting off the bus JJ already has a couple of catches in his pocket. He’s getting heavily targeted (12+ targets per game) and he is producing at an Elite ++ level with 9 receptions and 150 yards + per outing. I can’t imagine the Panthers slowing him down today, expect more of the ridiculous same.

5. “Unleash the Zack Attack” - Over the past two weeks, it’s been the Zack Moss show as he is averaging 27 touches per game. With the Rams rolling into town, I would expect much of the same, even with the return of quarterback Anthony Richardson. I am expecting the Colts to once again feature Moss and he should again finish in the neighborhood of 20+ touches.

6. “Start of Sit Mike Evans” - After his fast start this season, fantasy WR6 through three weeks, Evans is a must start. But today presents a challenge that is likely to frustrate fantasy owners. Evans has not been historically great against the Saints, it seems Marshon Lattimore and the Saints have had his number. Evans has to be in lineups today, but owners need to temper their expectations, it could be a long afternoon.

7. “Another Swift Sunday” - This will actually be Swift’s first Sunday, since taking over the lead role in the Eagles backfield. Swift has been great in the lead spot the last two games and behind the Eagles offensive line, he’s a good bet to keep the wheel spinning in week 4. He’s currently fantasy RB18 and trending his way to the top. He’s a must-start.

8. “The Return of Joe Cool” - It’s been a slow start for Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing game, but if ever there was a game to get right, this matchup in Tennessee could be it. The Titans rank 30th versus the pass and the Bengals pass game finally showed signs of life last Monday. Today sets up to be a great opportunity and weather should not play a factor. Fire up Joe Cool and the Bengals pass catchers.

9. “Don’t forget Josh Jacobs” -.No Jimmy G today, what do fantasy owners do with Davante Adams, start him of course. But don’t forget the Raiders also have Josh Jacobs. Adams will get his, but the Raiders offense may lean a little more today on Jacobs as they should. The Chargers are in the bottom 3rd of yards and fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Today should be a good day for Jacobs owners.

10. “CMC for MVP” - The Niners running back Christian McCaffrey has been spectacular this season leading the NFL with 353 rushing yards, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. He is also the number two fantasy running back, so he’s making a lot of fantasy owners smile. Today should just be another day at the office for CMC.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 4 STARTS

September 30th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 3

Start’Ems

My Week 4 Starts

Every week fantasy owners deal with and tackle the question of, who to sit and who to start. For some of us or maybe many of us, we follow the rule, start your starters. There are certain players you targeted in your draft and took in the early rounds and they should be started. Fantasy owners need not overthink this.

When it comes to those mid-round picks or later, this is where you might look at your bench and the waiver wire for favorable options. When I look at NFL Sunday, Week 4 these are the players that should be started and in your lineups.

QB-Russell Wilson (Broncos)

It’s been nothing less than a bad rollercoaster ride for Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense this season. Through the first three games we’ve seen some good, but we’ve also seen a lot of inconsistencies.

Wilson is currently the fantasy QB9, although it doesn’t seem like it. This season he’s throwing for 260 yards and two touchdowns per game, completing better than 65% of his passes and he’s added 57 yards rushing. While the numbers sound good, the team hasn’t looked good and they are 0-3, coming off the embarrassing 70-20 loss to Miami.

Wilson will have a chance at redemption for the team this week in Chicago. A big key for Wilson’s success facing the Bears 28th ranked pass defense, will be the lack of pressure. In three games this season the Bears defense is last in the league with one sack and has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. 

There’s not a lot of confidence in the Broncos team, but I have confidence in Wilson and head coach Sean Payton, tomorrow will be a better output for the offense and passing game. Start Wilson.

RB-Zack Moss (Colts)

The Colts running back has been fantastic as the team’s lead back. In two games this season Moss has been delivering as an elite RB-1 (currently the fantasy RB5) averaging 4.4 yards per carry, 27 touches and 126 scrimmage yards per game. He contributes in the pass game with 6 catches for 42 yards and a score in his two appearances.

With the Colts playing host to the Rams this week, Moss will be in line for another full workload, against a Rams defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per carry. This feels like a game where Moss should see enough volume to produce RB-1 numbers for the week.

In each of the two weeks Moss has seen at least 22 touches, totaled more than 100 yards of offense in each game, finishing in the top-10 for rushing each week. His floor is high enough that he’s a safe bet and should be in your lineup. Start Moss

WR-Brandon Aiyuk (49ers)

The Niners wide receiver returns after missing one game and with the possibility of no Deebo or a less than a 100% Samuel, Aiyuk is a strong start this week. Aiyuk has blossomed into a trustworthy and dependable weapon in the pass game.

He has 11 receptions for 172 yards receiving this season, with two touchdowns. If the 49ers are without Deebo, Aiyuk could be featured even more and provide a repeat of his week one performance (fantasy WR2).

Although the Cardinals defense has played well this season, the Niners are a well-balanced and well-oiled machine on offense and will present a myriad of problems for the D. Aiyuk could see a bump in his target share, making him a strong play on Sunday. Start Aiyuk

If you are in a deep league looking for some help in the flex spot, the Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr could be a sneaky play. I already like Wilson to continue with even greater success and we’ve already seen these two connect a couple of times this season. Mims provides the deep threat for the Broncos passing game and has shown the ability to take the lid off the top of the defense.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

September 27th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Wednesday Evening Edition

The Wednesday Watercooler

Targets Equal Opportunities

Your fantasy players can’t produce without the ball and they need opportunities to produce. Week 3 was a big week for production, lots of yards totaled and points tallied, and undoubtedly a lot of the production was reflected in the opportunity that was there.

Let’s take a look at the Week 3 leaders in targets and touches.

Here are the weekly leaders for Receiving Targets;

Week 3

Top 10 WR

1. Davante Adams (20)

2. Keenan Allen (20)

3. Ja’Marr Chase (15)

4. Adam Thielen (14)

5. AJ Brown (14)

6. Justin Jefferson (13)

7. Deebo Samuel (12)

8. Stefon Diggs (12)

9. Jakobi Meyers (12)

10. Joshua Downs (12)

11. Romeo Doubs (12)

The Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, currently fantasy WR26 for the season, turned his 15 targets (most this season) in week 3, into 12 receptions for 141 receiving yards. By far this was his best output of the season and good enough for fantasy WR6. If this trend continues (26.4% target share), fantasy owners will start to reap the rewards from the draft capital they invested in Chase.

It’s really no surprise to see Adams (fantasy WR4) sitting near the top of the fantasy receiver tree. His 37 targets for the season ranks 4th, his 322 yards receiving ranks 5th, and his 25 receptions are tied for 4th. As long as he and Jimmy G (Garoppolo) can continue to connect at a high level (39.3% target share) Adams will remain a Top-5 fantasy WR.

Top 10 TE

1. Sam LaPorta (11)

2. TJ Hockenson (11)

3. George Kittle (9)

4. Kyle Pitts (9)

5. Evan Engram (8)

6. Travis Kelce (8)

7. Luke Musgrave (8)

8. Jonnu Smith (8)

9. Four players tied with (7)

The Vikings TJ Hockenson, also the No.1 fantasy tight end continues to be a Target Hog in the passing game. Hockenson is getting a 20.3% target share per game which is equating to 9.3 targets per. With that kind of volume it should not be surprising to see him at the top of the fantasy tight end tree. His 11 targets in week 3 were good enough to produce 8 receptions for 78 yards. With his current volume he’s Top-5 the rest of the way.

The Jaguars tight end Evan Engram has been trending in the right direction the past two weeks. With his 16 targets in that span, he has accumulated 13 receptions for 124 yards receiving, numbers good enough for fantasy TE4. For the year, he has 21 total targets which have him sitting as the No.3 fantasy tight end, behind LaPorta and Hockenson. This type of workload (18.6% target share) will keep him well inside the Top-10 fantasy tight end conversation.

Top 10 RB

1. Miles Sanders (10)

2. Raheem Mostert (7)

3. Kyren Williams (7)

4. Alexander Mattison (7)

5. Bijan Robinson (6)

6. Christian McCaffrey (5)

7. Travis Etienne Jr (5)

8. Josh Jacobs (5)

9. Antonio Gibson (5)

10. Six tied with (4)

Not only has the Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert been healthy this season, but he has been producing at an elite level. After three games Mostert is the top fantasy running back. He’s not only getting it done on the ground, but he’s contributing in the passing game with 10 receptions, 79 yards receiving, and a touchdown. His 17 touches per game, if this continues, will keep him in the RB-1 conversation.

Touches Are Fantasy Gold

Just like a receiver needs to be targeted, a running back’s success leans heavily on how many times they touch (carries + catches) the rock.

Here are the weekly Touch leaders;

Week 3

Top 10 RB

1. Zack Moss (32)

2. Tony Pollard (26)

3. Alexander Mattison (25)

4. Christian McCaffrey (23)

5. Travis Etienne Jr (23)

6. De’Von Achane (22)

7. Kenneth Walker III (21)

8. Josh Jacobs (20)

9. Rhamondre Stevenson (20)

10. Joe Mixon (20)

How good has the Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker been this season, he’s the fantasy RB7 through the first three games. Over the past two weeks, he’s been even better, totaling 140 yards rushing, 70 yards receiving, and four rushing touchdowns good enough for fantasy RB3. His 39 touches over the same span ranks tied for 5th. 

The Colts running back Zack Moss may only be renting the starting gig in Indy, but he’s looking like a permanent squatter at the moment. Over the past two weeks Moss has been the fantasy RB5 (tied with Jerome Ford). He has totaled 210 yards rushing and 42 yards receiving with 54 total touches (ranks 2nd). As long as the workload continues he’s a must-start, beyond week 4 we’ll have to see what happens with running back Jonathan Taylor.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega