FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

September 29th, 2024

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Gametime

This is Sunday week 4 of the 2024 Fantasy Football season and we are passing the quarter mark of the regular fantasy season. With three weeks in the books, it is still tough to get a good read on what to expect and as per usual, injuries are playing havoc with the early part of this season.

Sunday thoughts:

• Even with Deebo Samuel returning today, it’s still safe to start (WR) Jauan Jennings today.
• With a trip to Sauce (Gardner) Island on the slate, avoid starting (WR) Courtland Sutton, if possible.
• Facing the 31st ranked fantasy defense against quarterbacks, today (QB) CJ Stroud gets right with a big game.
• Despite missing his top two targets, (QB) Jalen Hurts will thrive against the Bucs 27th ranked fantasy defense against quarterbacks.
• The Rams 30th ranked defense against opposing receivers has struggled to cover opposing receivers allowing the 6th most receiving yards, sounds like a big day for (WR) DJ Moore.

Sunday Fliers

If you are having any stretch of luck this season similar to mine, you too are swimming in the week 4 free agent pool looking for some help. For the deeper leagues looking for a dart throw this Sunday to fill a much needed void you might find some help with the following players.

WR-Parris Campbell & Jahan Dotson

The Eagles will be without both starters AJ Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (Concussion) Campbell and Dotson will be elevated into more prominent roles in the passing. The expectation is tight end Dallas Goedert and running back Saquon Barkley will be heavily involved in the passing game, but one of these dudes could step up today. If you are desperate, Dotson was on the field for 88% of snaps in week 3, while Campbell saw half. Dotson was traded to the team earlier this season, so he is still getting acclimated with the offense. I would lean on Dotson here and expect a decent showing against a decent Buccaneers defense.

That’s my take.
~David G Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 4 STARTS

September 30th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 3

Start’Ems

My Week 4 Starts

Every week fantasy owners deal with and tackle the question of, who to sit and who to start. For some of us or maybe many of us, we follow the rule, start your starters. There are certain players you targeted in your draft and took in the early rounds and they should be started. Fantasy owners need not overthink this.

When it comes to those mid-round picks or later, this is where you might look at your bench and the waiver wire for favorable options. When I look at NFL Sunday, Week 4 these are the players that should be started and in your lineups.

QB-Russell Wilson (Broncos)

It’s been nothing less than a bad rollercoaster ride for Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense this season. Through the first three games we’ve seen some good, but we’ve also seen a lot of inconsistencies.

Wilson is currently the fantasy QB9, although it doesn’t seem like it. This season he’s throwing for 260 yards and two touchdowns per game, completing better than 65% of his passes and he’s added 57 yards rushing. While the numbers sound good, the team hasn’t looked good and they are 0-3, coming off the embarrassing 70-20 loss to Miami.

Wilson will have a chance at redemption for the team this week in Chicago. A big key for Wilson’s success facing the Bears 28th ranked pass defense, will be the lack of pressure. In three games this season the Bears defense is last in the league with one sack and has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. 

There’s not a lot of confidence in the Broncos team, but I have confidence in Wilson and head coach Sean Payton, tomorrow will be a better output for the offense and passing game. Start Wilson.

RB-Zack Moss (Colts)

The Colts running back has been fantastic as the team’s lead back. In two games this season Moss has been delivering as an elite RB-1 (currently the fantasy RB5) averaging 4.4 yards per carry, 27 touches and 126 scrimmage yards per game. He contributes in the pass game with 6 catches for 42 yards and a score in his two appearances.

With the Colts playing host to the Rams this week, Moss will be in line for another full workload, against a Rams defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per carry. This feels like a game where Moss should see enough volume to produce RB-1 numbers for the week.

In each of the two weeks Moss has seen at least 22 touches, totaled more than 100 yards of offense in each game, finishing in the top-10 for rushing each week. His floor is high enough that he’s a safe bet and should be in your lineup. Start Moss

WR-Brandon Aiyuk (49ers)

The Niners wide receiver returns after missing one game and with the possibility of no Deebo or a less than a 100% Samuel, Aiyuk is a strong start this week. Aiyuk has blossomed into a trustworthy and dependable weapon in the pass game.

He has 11 receptions for 172 yards receiving this season, with two touchdowns. If the 49ers are without Deebo, Aiyuk could be featured even more and provide a repeat of his week one performance (fantasy WR2).

Although the Cardinals defense has played well this season, the Niners are a well-balanced and well-oiled machine on offense and will present a myriad of problems for the D. Aiyuk could see a bump in his target share, making him a strong play on Sunday. Start Aiyuk

If you are in a deep league looking for some help in the flex spot, the Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr could be a sneaky play. I already like Wilson to continue with even greater success and we’ve already seen these two connect a couple of times this season. Mims provides the deep threat for the Broncos passing game and has shown the ability to take the lid off the top of the defense.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WINS

September 19th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football Wins!

(NFL Week 2)

I am going to have bad picks and I’m going to have some good ones too. It’s just the nature of this game, so here are my week 2 picks that hit.

Jared Goff (QB) - The Lions quarterback was sizzling for most of the Sunday afternoon, with the exception of one glaring pick-six mistake. The rest of his day he produced 323 passing yards and tossed three scores. He finished as fantasy QB8 for the week. 

James Cook (RB) - The Bills running back turned in his first big Sunday of the 2023 season, finishing the week as fantasy RB11. Cook was solid carrying the ball 17 times for 123 yards and added 4 receptions for another 36 yards.

Amon-Ra St.Brown (WR) - The Lions wide receiver was solid, but not spectacular. He turned in a serviceable 6-catch, 102 receiving yards effort, good enough for fantasy WR34 for the week. Not quite wide receiver one territory, more like a solid flex play, but that’ll work for fantasy purposes.

Tee Higgins (WR) - Following a week one dud, the Bengals stud receiver came to life in week 2. Higgins posted a big donut in the team’s season opener, but on Sunday he was spectacular. Higgins caught 8 passes on 12 targets for 89 yards receiving with two touchdowns, finishing the day as fantasy WR4.

Deebo Samuel (WR) - Coming off a quiet game in week one, you just knew Deebo would be featured (11 touches on Sunday) and he delivered. Deebo totaled 101 scrimmage yards and added a touchdown, finishing as the Week 2 fantasy WR12. Of course he did.

Hunter Henry (TE) - Two weeks in a row Henry has been the top pass catching option at tight end. This seems hardly sustainable for the duration of the season and since he was unlikely drafted as your starter in your league, he (or your original first tight end pick could be a high sell.

Cam Akers (RB) - This one seemed predictable to me, considering some of the off-field issues the team dealt with last season. Although Akers seemed to have turned things around in the latter half of last season, it seems now maybe all of the issues did not get resolved. In any case, the Rams seem to be moving on, as should fantasy owners for the time being.

Pat Freiermuth (TE) – Another predictable outcome with this pick. The Steelers offense was bad in week one and for the most part (with the exception of the Pickens score) they were bad last night. Freiermuth recorded one catch for two yards on a single target on Monday night.

The season is early and there’s a lot more football to be played. This list will grow. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: 10 THINGS FOR NFL SUNDAY

September 17th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

10 Things for NFL Sunday

(Week 2)

With the Kickoff to NFL Sunday week 2 just a few hours away, I’m getting fresh batteries for my remotes, breaking out the second TV, switching on Youtube TV (with Sunday Ticket), checking my fantasy lineups, making some last minute adjustments, and tuning into the latest fantasy shows for injury updates.

There’s a lot to take in and the clock to kickoff is counting down. On top of the inventory check on cold beverages and football foods supply for the day, here are the Top-10 things on my mind as I anxiously await for NFL Sunday to kick off;

1. “James gets cooking” - I like what I saw from the Bills running back on Monday night. Although he did not put up great numbers, his snap share and his usage indicated to me, he’s the guy. It’s only a matter of time before he gets cooking and week 2 versus the Raiders is as good a time as any.

2. “Joe Cool to Chase” - The Bengals passing offense was stagnant in week one, but you had a tough Browns defense and horrible weather. It looks like the weather won’t be a factor this week

3. Henry is still King” - At least for another Sunday, Titans running back will show why he is King. The Chargers are traveling back east for an early game, so this sets up as one of those games where they could fall flat. You know the Titans will lean hard on Henry, especially with a banged up D-Hop (DeAndre Hopkins).

4. “Big Sunday for Big Mike” - The Chargers wideout was quiet in week one and as per the norm, he’ll bounce back this week with a big performance. It’s a good matchup for Big Mike and three times last season when he was targeted fewer than 5 times, he averaged nearly 22 fantasy points.

5. “ASB & Lions keep prowling” - When was the last time the Lions started out 2-0? How about 2023? The Lions will be on the prowl today squaring off with the Seahawks. This matchup looks like a great opportunity for Goff to ASB (Amon-Ra St. Brown) to be called a couple of times. The Seahawks secondary was torched in week one.

6. “Texans not out of Woods” - It’s not surprising to see Robert Woods still hanging around in the NFL, but after the past two quiet seasons I hardly expected to hear his name called again. Now he didn’t light up the scoreboard last week, but he did turn in a solid 6 catch, 57 yards receiving performance. The glaring statistics were his 10 targets and 75.3% snap count. He may not have much fantasy relevance leading into the 2023 campaign, but those numbers might say otherwise.

7. “Mooney is money” - DJ Moore who? Did everyone forget about Mooney? Mooney was a 1,000 yard receiver for the Bears in 2021 and before going down to injury in 2022 he was a primary target for quarterback Justin Fields. Fields trust him and knows he’s money. Don’t count him out.

8. “Waller is winning” - The Giants tight end doesn’t carry an injury designation leading into Sunday. Fantasy owners can grab your popcorn and get ready to see what all the hype during training camp was all about.

9. “Sunday is Deebo Time” - It’s rivalry Sunday, Rams and Niners and that means Deebo time. The Niners wideout has scored in four of their last five meetings, including 5 total touchdowns. He was relatively quiet in week one, but against the Rams I expect a lot of noise from the playmaker.

10. “Jeudy will bring the Juice” - He may be on a pitch count, but no question when he’s on the field he’ll make it count. One element missing last Sunday from the Broncos offense was explosiveness. Jeudy has great speed and can be electric, on Sunday he will bring the juice.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WEEK 2 FF START'EMS

September 16th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football Week 2

Start'Ems

My Week Starts for Sunday and Monday.

QB-Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) - Last season in their divisional round matchup, Lawrence fell flat passing for just 217 yards with one touchdown and an interception. There’s nothing like home cooking and this Sunday the Jaguars third-year quarterback will find redemption and a big day against the defending champs. The Chiefs defense had a decent showing in week one, but Lawrence has got himself some nice weapons he’ll be showcasing on Sunday and they should lead to a big day. Start him.

RB-James Cook (Bills) - Cook dominated the snap counts (59.4%) and usage (16 touches) for the Bills backfield in week one. Although his production was a bit pedestrian (RB27) at best in week one, Cook has a favorable matchup in week 2 where the ceiling is raised. Cook faces a Raiders defense that allowed 10 receptions to opposing running backs and almost 4.5 yards per carry in week one. This sets up potentially for a very nice game for Cook, start him.

WR-Tee Higgins (Bengals) - The Bengals wideout was targeted 8 times in week one and did not post a single catch. You can almost guarantee that will never happen again and most likely what will happen is a bounce back game. Higgins has a truly special player in his teammate Ja’Marr Chase lining up on the other side of the field, who will also look to bounce back this week, so I am going to temper my expectations. I expect Higgins to grab a handful of passes, but more importantly he finds the endzone, start him.

WR-Deebo Samuel (49ers) - Last week it was Brandon Aiyuk featured in the pass game, but Deebo was still a big part and played on 86.8% of snaps (to Aiyuk’s 85.3%). Deebo (week one WR36) has scored in four of his last five meetings against the Rams, scoring five times. I believe he’s a strong bet to find pay dirt in this one, of course you are starting him.

TE-Hunter Henry (Patriots) - This take is one part due to usage and another part due to matchup. In week one Henry played on 78.8% of the offensive snaps. He was targeted six times and finished week one as the TE1. His matchup this week is against a Dolphins defense that allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Henry likely won’t have a lot of catches and yards, but he’s a good bet to reach the end zone in this one, start him.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega