FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 26th 2017

Saturday Afternoon Edition

The Fantasy Draft Room

Recap

It’s still relatively early for the fantasy draft season, but no question it is in high gear now. I’ve managed to complete several myself and following along with several others. I’ve also been on the internet quite a bit lately checking many websites for the current ADP of many players.

With your draft season kicking into high gear, I am just running through and recapping some recent picks made in my drafts that I have taken note.

Let’s start at the top with Buccaneers Mike Evans. I am hearing a lot of good things about Evans and I am on the bandwagon for another big season. Last year Evans finished as the No.3 fantasy receiver with a stat line of 96-1321-12, and going off the draft boards as the No. 4 receiver big things are expected again this season. Fantasy owners will have to target him early.

Last season was unquestionably Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan’s best season of his career with a 70.0 completion percentage, 4,944 yards passing, and 38 touchdowns. He’ll have a lot of the same pieces in place for the 2017 season, so an encore performance to his 2016 campaign looks likely. He’s clearly the number 4 quarterback going off draft boards around the 5th round, a full round in front of the 5th QB, (according to FFC ADP). Fantasy owners are drinking the Cool-aid; another big season for Matty Ice. He’s a great target to start those middle rounds, after you filled your backfield and/or slotted your wideouts.

Moving right along Terrelle Pryor, coming off a nice 2016 showing in Cleveland (77 receptions, 1,007 yards receiving, 4 touchdowns) the Redskins newest big target in their passing game is being drafted as a solid WR2. Last season Pryor finished as the No. 19 fantasy receiver in scoring, in a better system this year with Kirk Cousin chucking the rock in his direction Pryor should easily match and exceed his numbers from a year ago.I see him more as a low WR2, but will just as happy taking him a little early as my WR2; being drafted around the middle of the third round in 12 team leagues.

One play I am not completely enthused about is the Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch. After taking a year off it make take Lynch a few games to find Beast Mode and his current ADP (late second round) is too rich for my blood. I don’t necessarily think Lynch will be a bust, just not ready to sell the farm with a 2nd round pick. His value is more in line for me a couple of rounds later, 4th round or early 5th.

Right now one of the hottest fantasy stocks on the rise has to be Vikings rookie running back Dalvin Cook. A lot of positive reports suggesting Cook could be a three-down back and with Latavius Murray missing as much time as he has, the rookie has been able to showcase his talents. It’s early and only preseason, but an early 3rd round grab (current ADP 3.04 according to FFC) sits well with me. Cook is a fantasy running back I’d like to own this season.

Another hot fantasy stock is the Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey. The rookie out of Stanford arrived with on the hype train this summer and so far he’s making believers everywhere. McCaffrey figures to be a change of pace ball-carrier in Carolina, but heavily involved in the pass game; can you say PPR stud. His current ADP puts him in the 3rd round and someone fantasy owners will target as a preferred RB2, especially in PPR formats.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 25th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

PPR Studs

When it comes to fantasy football, I will play any format, standard, DFS, Head-to-Head, rotisserie style. There’s no question that one of my favorites and one of the most popular is PPR or points-per-reception. In this format players are rewarded with a half-point and a full point (other leagues may vary) for each reception.

In this format, the emphasis is on the pass-catching players, wide receivers, tight ends and these guys, my PPR studs. These will be the guys fantasy owners can count on to see a heavy volume of targets and receptions throughout the season.

Now you have your top tier elite PPR ballers in running backs David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell, so these are the backs a couple of tiers down that specialize at the passing game. At the top of my list for such candidates include the new Ravens running back Danny Woodhead. When he was in San Diego, Woodhead was featured in the passing attack. Last season Woodhead’s season was cut short to two games, but back in 2015 when he played all 16, he lead all running backs with 106 targets and tied for the most receptions with 80. If he can stay healthy, which has been an issue in recent years, no question he’s a PPR stud.

Another capable pass-catcher out of the backfield includes the Lions running back Theo Riddick. In 2015 Riddick tied with Woodhead with 80 receptions (on 99 targets) to lead all running backs and again in  2016 he was a top 10 running back in targets with 67. Despite only touching the ball 159 times last season, Riddick still finished as the number 25 running back in PPR.

Without a doubt and up and comer in the PPR fantasy world is the Browns 2nd year running back Duke Johnson. The kid out of Miami University has proven to be excellent out of the backfield totaling 74 targets in each of his first two seasons finishing with 114 receptions, finishing only behind Theo Riddick (133 receptions), Devonta Freeman (127 receptions), and David Johnson (116 receptions) over that same span. The word is Duke is expected to be even more involved this season; can you say upside.

Now this back is a bit of sneaky play and one you can likely get at great value. The Jets running back Bilal Powell is coming off the board around the 6th round as the RB28 (according to FFC). Over the past season Powell has seen 137 targets and hauled in 105 balls, making him a prime value PPR play at his current ADP. The Jets are in rebuild mode and there’s just not much there right now, even with the presence of Matt Forte. Last season Powell saw 205 touches finishing as the number RB16 in PPR; would not surprise to see him equal of increase his touches in 2017.

Okay, with all of that shared and said, one more.

Perhaps a sleeper or some great late round value with the Giants running back Shane Vereen. There’s been nothing said or reported recently that should have anyone believing Vereen won’t be a part of the offense this season. Vereen has a current ADP of 13.07, coming off the board around the 13th round as the RB58. Vereen missed a lot of time last season which is likely why he is the forgotten man in New York, but back in 2015 he played in all 16 games finishing with 81 targets, 59 receptions, and a total of 120 touches; not a huge volume but good enough for Vereen to finish as the RB26 (flex play territory). Savvy Owners will be looking at him in the later rounds.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 23rd 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

We are inching ever so closer to your fantasy draft day or in many cases your next fantasy draft day. As you prepare for your next draft, even with one or more in the books, you can never get enough fantasy info or nuggets.

Now I can honestly say I didn’t pull any of these off the McDonald’s menu, but I will do my best to keep this as informative as I can. And with that, more players I like to add to your fantasy watch list.

The Lions will see the return of a healthy Ameer Abdullah this season (14 games missed last year). Abdullah is a talented runner that will give the Lions backfield a needed boost; team ranked 30th in rushing last season. There’s only been a small sample size of Abdullah since being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2015 draft, but a lot of analysts, including this fan like his opportunity and upside this year. Abdullah should be in line for the majority of the early down work this season, but don’t be fooled he’s more than a capable pass-catching back. You can wait on this kid a few rounds, right now his ADP is 5.07, he’s going off the board as the RB26 (according to FFC).

Another running back that you can wait on for a few rounds is the Saints Mark Ingram. With the arrival and influence of Adrian Peterson Ingram has an ADP of 5.09, going off the board as the RB27 (according to FFC). Last season Ingram played in all 16 games and started 14, finishing with 1,043 yards rushing, 46 receptions, 319 receiving yards, and 10 total touchdowns, good enough for the number 10 fantasy running back. Right now he is being greatly undervalued going where he’s currently being drafted, which is why I like Ingram so much.

Even with his three-game suspension to start the season looming, Buccaneers running back Doug Martin is making enough noise in camp for me to believe when he returns, he’ll eventually (if not right away) resume his starting duties. Martin is healthy now, coming off an injury-shortened 2016 season, and even though he was not having a great campaign, he was on pace to finish around the RB22 fantasy back. Currently Martin has an ADP of 5.01, the RB23 going off the board (according to FFC), but he has looked very good this preseason and in camp. WE know Martin has upside, finishing as the RB3 in 2015. I am one who believes in his talent and ability and think if you take him this late, there’s plenty of good value here.

Speaking of running back Adrian Peterson, he’s back and with his return there’s a lot of questions and concerns, but this being fantasy football, there’s a lot of hope too. Everyone knows when healthy, All-Day is as good as they come and when healthy he’s a top 10 fantasy running back; top-10 eight times since 2007 (standard leagues according to Fantasydata), including number one in 2012. Peterson is now 32, in a new system, and figures to be in a timeshare with Mark Ingram. His volume is the big question, but there’s little doubt of his talent. I don’t think you can go wrong taking him beyond the 3rd round. Where he’s currently going (ADP of 4.12, the number RB22, according to FFC), puts him around a late RB2 or an early RB3; which is where I like him. He’s a mid-to-late 4th rounder with potential home run upside.

Interesting Late Grabs

There have been quite a few changes in New Orleans in the off-season, but one change that has caught my eye is the addition of Ted Ginn Jr. He joins an offense that has one of the league’s premiere deep ball throwers and accurate passers. Ginn has never really been a high volume receiver, but he is coming off back-to-back seasons with more than 95 targets, averaging 49 receptions. If he can see similar volume this season in New Orleans (last season the Saints number 3 receiver saw 104 targets), he’ll definitely improve his number 47 fantasy receiver from last year. With an ADP of 12.04, going off the board as the WR55, Ginn is virtually free and a late round flier I am high on.

  

Until we see how Jamaal Charles looks on the field, the best we can invest in him is a late round dart throw. He’s healthy now, but the Broncos have yet to turn him loose, so there should be pause. I’d expect when he hits the field, the needle will move a great deal in either direction; shoot up the draft board or go undrafted. If you are drafting before Saturday, he’s one of my favorite picks as a late or last round flier. The current word around the watercooler is he’s not expected to see a high volume of work this season (assuming he makes the team), maybe 8-10 touches, but I believe all this could change if he has success. And the biggest thing currently, with the exception of the team’s 6th round draft selection running back DeAngelo Henderson, there’s not a whole lot going on with the team’s running game.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 21st 2017

Monday Night Edition

On the Cover This Week

Aaron is the Man!

Whether you like the Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers or the Patriots signal caller, Tom Brady either one is going to be fine for you in fantasy this season. However, if you hope to grab either the price is going to be high.

Right now Aaron Rodgers is going off the board as this year’s number one Fantasy Quarterback with a current ADP of 2.09 (according to FFC). Last season Rodgers turned in another stellar season finishing with 4,428 yards passing, 40 touchdowns, and 4 rushing touchdowns, finishing as the number one player in fantasy football standard leagues (he was second behind running back David Johnson). This was his fourth time in the past six seasons with at least 40 total touchdowns.

How good is Rodgers?

Since 2008, excluding his shortened due to injury 2013 season, Rodgers has finished as the number fantasy scoring player (in standard leagues) four out of seven seasons, finishing second twice, and third in the other three seasons. In PPR formats here’s how Rodgers has finished (top 10 finishes only); 2016-2nd, 2014-3rd, 2012-3rd, 2011-1st, 2010-4th, and 2009-2nd.

If Rodgers is not the man, then he is Mr. Fantasy Football!

Taking a quarterback early is tough, because you pass up on a lot of value you need to fill at a lot of other positions, but at the tail-end of the 2nd round taking Rodgers may be a price worth paying.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 20th 2017

Sunday Afternoon Edition

The Rookie Radar

The second week of Preseason is nearly complete and even though it’s only two weeks of preseason action, fantasy owners have seen enough to know there are some very good rookies to watch.

Even with names like Latavius Murray and Jerrick McKinnon, rookie running back Dalvin Cook is creating a lot of buzz in Minnesota. The 2nd round rookie pick out of Florida State has been impressive in camp and shown chemistry with quarterback Sam Bradford. It should also be noted that in the team’s 2nd exhibition game Cook started with the first team ahead of McKinnon. The rookie looks like a lock to hold the starting gig heading into the start of the season. With his current ADP of 3.07 (according to Fantasy Football Calculator) he is going as early as a late third or early 4th round pick. Cook’s stock is on the rise and worth watching.

Over in Houston there’s a little noise coming out of the Texans camp. Their 3rd round selection out of Texas D’Onta Foreman has quietly been putting together a nice highlight reel during the preseason drawing some warranted attention. In two games the rookie runner has totaled 16 carries for 93 yards rushing and 4 grabs for 72 yards receiving with a touchdown. Right now Foreman is well behind Lamar Miller on the depth chart, but his impressive play could be closing the gap in a hurry; keep an eye on this rookie.

In the off-season the Denver Broncos signed Jamaal Charles to a one year deal, looking for the veteran running back to help bolster a Broncos running game in need. It seems the team may have found some additional help in their 6th round draft selection, DeAngelo Henderson. The rookie running back has been solid in the preseason, displaying quickness and a great burst of speed. It’s only two games and only the preseason, but Henderson has looked very good; 13 carries for 84 yards rushing and a touchdown. So far this preseason Henderson looks like the best running back in Denver. Fantasy owners should take note, because I’m sure the Broncos coaching staff has.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega