FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 18th 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

Tonight’s not exactly what you might call a Primetime matchup, but there’s still plenty of fantasy relevance with names like Stafford, Manning, and Beckham on the slate.

So let’s talk about tonight’s matchup and some of the plays that could have huge impact and implication on your weekly season long league matchups and your weekly DFS lineups.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford, could be in some DFS lineups tonight as well as a likely starter in season long leagues. Stafford is coming off a big week one performance with four touchdowns, but tonight could find slimmer pickings against a tough Giants secondary. Owners needing big numbers could be in for disappointment, but Stafford should come through with standard numbers in the 16-19 fantasy point range.

Wide receivers Golden Tate & Kenny Golladay, should once again be heavily involved in the passing game tonight. The Lions running game is certainly lacking after one week, and Stafford definitively favors his receivers; 25 targets of 41 passes to the wideouts. Tate is the heavy favorite in PPR, but Golladay could the better option in standard with the likelihood of a score tonight. Wide receiver Marvin Jones Jr (2 targets last week) could be the odd man out tonight and may be better off on your bench.

Running backs Theo Riddick & Ameer Abdullah are both in play tonight, but I wouldn’t expect big numbers from either. Riddick is the PPR fave out of the backfield with 7 targets in week one, but Abdullah (4 targets last week) could see enough work in the ground game (15 carries in week 1) against a Giants defense that allowed 129 yards in week one to be lineup worthy.

Tight End Eric Ebron is currently off the radar. He’s a risky start coming off a quiet week one with just 2 catches for 9 yards. Stafford three the ball 41 times in week one and only went Ebron’s way three times. With that ratio, he’s sitting until we see changes in the passing game progression.

Quarterback Eli Manning is probably not in too many lineups tonight and probably a good thing, tough to always predict his outcomes. Last week was not good with just 6.70 fantasy points against the Cowboys, but tonight could fare a little better for Eli at home. He’s still not a lineup favorite, but could put up reasonable numbers in the 14-17 fantasy point range

Running backs Paul Perkins & Shane Vereen should both be plenty active tonight against the Lions. There was no question in week one, the Giants abandon the run with just 11 total carries. We could see a more patient offense tonight, especially if star receiver OBJ is not available. Even with additional touches tonight for Perkins, Vereen (9 receptions in week 1) is the only viable Giant’s running back I am starting, and that’s only in PPR leagues.

Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr is the biggest factor and will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the Giants offense. Amid current rumors it sounds like OBJ could play tonight, but it doesn’t sound like he’s anywhere close to 100 percent. If he plays, he’ll be a huge risky start for fantasy owners. I am avoiding him in DFS, but may roll the dice with him in season long leagues.

Wide receivers Brandon Marshall & Sterling Shepard could see a bump in value is OBJ plays. Beckham Jr’s presence will certainly draw some attention and may allow Marshall and Shepard to operate underneath. Shepard (7 receptions & 88 yards receiving in week 1) is the favorite here, while Marshall may warrant some (but not much) consideration in PPR formats and TD heavy leagues.

Tight end Evan Engram had a decent showing in week 1 for an overall poor performance the Giants offense. The rookie tight end was targeted 5 times, snagging 4 for 44 yards. He’s more than likely in line to see similar numbers and may be worth starting in deeper PPR leagues. At 6’3” and with his athletic talent, he’s also worth a look TD-heavy formats as he’ll likely be featured in red-zone packages.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 25th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

PPR Studs

When it comes to fantasy football, I will play any format, standard, DFS, Head-to-Head, rotisserie style. There’s no question that one of my favorites and one of the most popular is PPR or points-per-reception. In this format players are rewarded with a half-point and a full point (other leagues may vary) for each reception.

In this format, the emphasis is on the pass-catching players, wide receivers, tight ends and these guys, my PPR studs. These will be the guys fantasy owners can count on to see a heavy volume of targets and receptions throughout the season.

Now you have your top tier elite PPR ballers in running backs David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell, so these are the backs a couple of tiers down that specialize at the passing game. At the top of my list for such candidates include the new Ravens running back Danny Woodhead. When he was in San Diego, Woodhead was featured in the passing attack. Last season Woodhead’s season was cut short to two games, but back in 2015 when he played all 16, he lead all running backs with 106 targets and tied for the most receptions with 80. If he can stay healthy, which has been an issue in recent years, no question he’s a PPR stud.

Another capable pass-catcher out of the backfield includes the Lions running back Theo Riddick. In 2015 Riddick tied with Woodhead with 80 receptions (on 99 targets) to lead all running backs and again in  2016 he was a top 10 running back in targets with 67. Despite only touching the ball 159 times last season, Riddick still finished as the number 25 running back in PPR.

Without a doubt and up and comer in the PPR fantasy world is the Browns 2nd year running back Duke Johnson. The kid out of Miami University has proven to be excellent out of the backfield totaling 74 targets in each of his first two seasons finishing with 114 receptions, finishing only behind Theo Riddick (133 receptions), Devonta Freeman (127 receptions), and David Johnson (116 receptions) over that same span. The word is Duke is expected to be even more involved this season; can you say upside.

Now this back is a bit of sneaky play and one you can likely get at great value. The Jets running back Bilal Powell is coming off the board around the 6th round as the RB28 (according to FFC). Over the past season Powell has seen 137 targets and hauled in 105 balls, making him a prime value PPR play at his current ADP. The Jets are in rebuild mode and there’s just not much there right now, even with the presence of Matt Forte. Last season Powell saw 205 touches finishing as the number RB16 in PPR; would not surprise to see him equal of increase his touches in 2017.

Okay, with all of that shared and said, one more.

Perhaps a sleeper or some great late round value with the Giants running back Shane Vereen. There’s been nothing said or reported recently that should have anyone believing Vereen won’t be a part of the offense this season. Vereen has a current ADP of 13.07, coming off the board around the 13th round as the RB58. Vereen missed a lot of time last season which is likely why he is the forgotten man in New York, but back in 2015 he played in all 16 games finishing with 81 targets, 59 receptions, and a total of 120 touches; not a huge volume but good enough for Vereen to finish as the RB26 (flex play territory). Savvy Owners will be looking at him in the later rounds.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 24th, 2016
Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Stock Watch

Stock Rising

With running back Danny Woodhead going down for the season, 2nd year back Melvin Gordon is likely to see his workload increase. He's off to a strong so far with 38 carries for 159 rushing yards to go with his 3 grabs for 18 yards. Owners can expect to see more Gordon going forward, as long as he can stay healthy he's a fantasy stock on the rise.

Like Gordon, the Lions running back Theo Riddick could see a significant spike in his workload and production with starter Ameer Abdullah expected to miss some time. While Riddick is not a big back, or built for between the tackles, the Lions friendly short passing game is a great fit for him. In the two games he has 9 receptions on 10 targets and with more time on the field those numbers could spike. He's a great PPR play and could offer some 

Heading into week 3, the Texans rookie receiver Will Fuller had a lot of flavor, but fantasy owners may want to stick to just just sipping the kool aid for now until we see more, especially after Thursday night's disappointing performance. Fuller shot out of the gate like a hot stock on the rise with two consecutive 100 yard performances, but cooled off against the Patriots. The rookie is still seeing plenty of opportunities with 7 targets on Thursday night, so this is a fluid stock that has great upside.

After missing all of the 2015 season, it looks like Raven's tight end Dennis Pitta could be back to his old form. He's coming off a huge productive Sunday with 9 catches off 12 targets for 102 yards. The big athletic tight end has had past success with current quarterback Joe Flacco and with his return this season, he could finish as a TE1 by season's end. Pitta is definitely a fantasy stock on the rise.

This is tight end Jacob Tamme's second season with the Falcons. With all the changes at the wide receiver position and lack of experience, the veteran tight end could see himself vulturing a lot of opportunities in the pass game. Through the first two weeks he's averaging 8 targets per game, most on the team and his 11 receptions also leads the teams passing game. For the moment, Tamme looks like a solid stock trend on the upside.

Stock Falling

The Dolphins veteran runner Arian Foster is coming off a serious injury from a year ago and with a history of being banged up, his prognosis for staying healthy does not look good. Already slated to miss Sunday Week 3, Foster stock is sliding fast.

The Chiefs running back, Jamaal Charles looks like he could be active this Sunday, but having missed the first two games and coming off a torn ACL from a year ago, fantasy owners should keep their expectations in check. Charles could see action, but there's no question right now, at best he'll be sharing duties with running back Spence Ware. Charles stock, for the price likely paid in most drafts is over-valued until we see something worthy of an early round draft pick.

Through two weeks, the Lions wide receiver Golden Tate has seen plenty of targets with 16, but his 9 receptions has only accounted for 54 yards. He's definitely an active target in the short passing game, unfortunately for owners he's not doing much after the catch and until that changes, his stock will continue to fall.

The Steelers wide receiver Marcus Wheaton has yet to see any action this season, but does look like he could be on the field this Sunday. Lets roll him out on the trading floor and see what he can do against the Eagles on Sunday, before we buy into any of stock. For now his value is flatlining.

That's my take for Week 3

~David G. Ortega