FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 9th 2017

Saturday Late Afternoon Edition

My Week 1 Four Horsemen + A Flex

(Bold Predictions)

So here we go with another season of boldly predicting the weekly outcome of a handful of fantasy players each week. The normal count has always been a fabulous four or Four Horsemen, but this year I am adding a flex play. So these are my bold predictions for Week 1.

Quarterback

We have all heard the talk regarding Ben Roethlisberger’s Jekyll and Hyde play on the road and at home. The big difference with this Sunday road contest is Big Ben will finally have all his toys available; wide receivers Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant, and a healthy running back Le’Veon Bell to start the season. His last start at Cleveland (last season) was a bit underwhelming, but in two of his last three starts Big Ben has passed for over 300 yards (in each) and tossed six touchdowns. There’s just too much fire-power on the Steelers offense this season and they are facing a defense that allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Big Ben will turn in a stat line of 22 of 29 passing for 339 yards and 3 touchdowns with a pick.

Running Back

My ball carrier for Sunday is the Jets Bilal Powell. Yes, this is not a sexy pick, but Powell is in line to see the lion’s share of carries in the Jets backfield and he adds the pass-catching dimension; 58 receptions last season. Powell will face a Bills defense that allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs (standard scoring) in 2016 including 18 rushing touchdowns (tied for 2nd most). Powell should get plenty of opportunity tomorrow and post RB1 numbers; 90 rushing yards, (5 catches) 45 receiving yards, and two scores.

Wide Receiver

The Redskins have made a lot of changes in the offseason, but one mainstay is wide receiver Jamison Crowder. Last season the Redskins wide receiver started 9 games and finished with 67 receptions for 847 yards and 7 touchdowns. This Sunday he’ll match up with an Eagles secondary that allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers (standard scoring) including the 3rd most receiving yards. I particularly like Crowder in PPR formats this week as I see him getting a lot of work in the slot; his stat line for Sunday, 8 catches for 105 yards receiving and a touchdown.

Tight End

In the same matchup (Redskins & Eagles), a strong play I am hyping this week is the Eagles tight end Zach Ertz. Ertz is a solid TE1 this season finishing with 78 receptions just a year ago. This week he’ll line up against a Redskins defense that allowed the 2nd most receptions to opposing tight ends in 2016, including the 3rd most receiving yards. In their last matchup last season, Ertz caught 10 passes on 13 targets for 112 yards. I am looking for a similar result on Sunday; 8 receptions, 75 yards receiving, and a touchdown.

Flex

The Ravens have announced that Joe Flacco is not on the injury report, which means he’ll start on Sunday. I have to believe his safety blanket will be running back Danny Woodhead, a PPR darling in the fantasy world. The Ravens will want Flacco to get the ball out of his hands quickly, so you know he will be relying heavily on Woodhead. The new Ravens running back missed much of the 2016 season, but back in 2015 he was the No.3 fantasy back in PPR with 80 receptions, 1,091 total yards, and 9 total touchdowns. Woodhead will draw the Bengals on Sunday and their defense that allowed 5th most receptions to opposing running backs. Woodhead will be a strong flex on Sunday with a stat line of 35 yards rushing, 6 catches for 55 yards receiving, and one score.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 25th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

PPR Studs

When it comes to fantasy football, I will play any format, standard, DFS, Head-to-Head, rotisserie style. There’s no question that one of my favorites and one of the most popular is PPR or points-per-reception. In this format players are rewarded with a half-point and a full point (other leagues may vary) for each reception.

In this format, the emphasis is on the pass-catching players, wide receivers, tight ends and these guys, my PPR studs. These will be the guys fantasy owners can count on to see a heavy volume of targets and receptions throughout the season.

Now you have your top tier elite PPR ballers in running backs David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell, so these are the backs a couple of tiers down that specialize at the passing game. At the top of my list for such candidates include the new Ravens running back Danny Woodhead. When he was in San Diego, Woodhead was featured in the passing attack. Last season Woodhead’s season was cut short to two games, but back in 2015 when he played all 16, he lead all running backs with 106 targets and tied for the most receptions with 80. If he can stay healthy, which has been an issue in recent years, no question he’s a PPR stud.

Another capable pass-catcher out of the backfield includes the Lions running back Theo Riddick. In 2015 Riddick tied with Woodhead with 80 receptions (on 99 targets) to lead all running backs and again in  2016 he was a top 10 running back in targets with 67. Despite only touching the ball 159 times last season, Riddick still finished as the number 25 running back in PPR.

Without a doubt and up and comer in the PPR fantasy world is the Browns 2nd year running back Duke Johnson. The kid out of Miami University has proven to be excellent out of the backfield totaling 74 targets in each of his first two seasons finishing with 114 receptions, finishing only behind Theo Riddick (133 receptions), Devonta Freeman (127 receptions), and David Johnson (116 receptions) over that same span. The word is Duke is expected to be even more involved this season; can you say upside.

Now this back is a bit of sneaky play and one you can likely get at great value. The Jets running back Bilal Powell is coming off the board around the 6th round as the RB28 (according to FFC). Over the past season Powell has seen 137 targets and hauled in 105 balls, making him a prime value PPR play at his current ADP. The Jets are in rebuild mode and there’s just not much there right now, even with the presence of Matt Forte. Last season Powell saw 205 touches finishing as the number RB16 in PPR; would not surprise to see him equal of increase his touches in 2017.

Okay, with all of that shared and said, one more.

Perhaps a sleeper or some great late round value with the Giants running back Shane Vereen. There’s been nothing said or reported recently that should have anyone believing Vereen won’t be a part of the offense this season. Vereen has a current ADP of 13.07, coming off the board around the 13th round as the RB58. Vereen missed a lot of time last season which is likely why he is the forgotten man in New York, but back in 2015 he played in all 16 games finishing with 81 targets, 59 receptions, and a total of 120 touches; not a huge volume but good enough for Vereen to finish as the RB26 (flex play territory). Savvy Owners will be looking at him in the later rounds.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 9th, 2017

Wednesday Night Edition

Draft Watch: Eyeing the Backfield

In this year’s draft, like most from past fantasy seasons, there are your notable stud running backs (DJ, Bell, Zeke, & Shady) that everyone will target. They are no secret and if you have a high draft slot you’ll be in the market to make a grab.

You’ll hear this alot and I’ll say it here as well, when drafting beyond the obvious picks what you should be looking for in your draft is “value.” It’s not just who you take, but when you take them. Reaching too early can cost you a lot of value at the top and reaching too late you’ll miss out on those players that will pay huge dividends throughout the season.

After the first round (in the early rounds), running backs that are not too early to reach for in my opinion are DeMarco Murray (Titans), Jay Ajayi (Dolphins), Jordan Howard (Bears), Todd Gurley (Rams), and Leonard Fournette (Jaguars). With this group, what I like best about them is their potential volume. None have a real threat in the backfield to steal their workload. Ajayi looks very appealing with the recent change at quarterback and Fournette is expected to be a workhorse.

Once you hit the mid-rounds (round 4 and on), in particular in PPR formats, pass catching running backs that I like and should reap plenty of rewards are Danny Woodhead (Ravens), Ty Montgomery (Packers), Ameer Abdullah (Lions), Paul Perkins (Giants), and Christian McCaffrey (Panthers). I see most of these guys going in the 5th and 6th rounds as early RB3 with some potential as an RB2. I believe Woodhead could set the bar for receptions this season and even as a rookie I believe McCaffrey could make a run at 65 to 70 catches.

The late round fliers that will come cheap and could pay-off big in my estimation are running backs Theo Riddick (Lions), Duke Johnson (Browns), Giovani Bernard (Bengals), and James White (Patriots). As late as these guys could be had, even with only 40-45 catches, they are a great value as a flex options and bye week fills.

A couple of names that are being undervalued that owners should be able to snag at a great price are the Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart (ADP 94.3), Ravens running back Terrance West (ADP 83), and Jets running back Matt Forte (ADP 105.7). Now these guys may not win your league, but they are low risk with potential.

That’s my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 24th, 2016
Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Stock Watch

Stock Rising

With running back Danny Woodhead going down for the season, 2nd year back Melvin Gordon is likely to see his workload increase. He's off to a strong so far with 38 carries for 159 rushing yards to go with his 3 grabs for 18 yards. Owners can expect to see more Gordon going forward, as long as he can stay healthy he's a fantasy stock on the rise.

Like Gordon, the Lions running back Theo Riddick could see a significant spike in his workload and production with starter Ameer Abdullah expected to miss some time. While Riddick is not a big back, or built for between the tackles, the Lions friendly short passing game is a great fit for him. In the two games he has 9 receptions on 10 targets and with more time on the field those numbers could spike. He's a great PPR play and could offer some 

Heading into week 3, the Texans rookie receiver Will Fuller had a lot of flavor, but fantasy owners may want to stick to just just sipping the kool aid for now until we see more, especially after Thursday night's disappointing performance. Fuller shot out of the gate like a hot stock on the rise with two consecutive 100 yard performances, but cooled off against the Patriots. The rookie is still seeing plenty of opportunities with 7 targets on Thursday night, so this is a fluid stock that has great upside.

After missing all of the 2015 season, it looks like Raven's tight end Dennis Pitta could be back to his old form. He's coming off a huge productive Sunday with 9 catches off 12 targets for 102 yards. The big athletic tight end has had past success with current quarterback Joe Flacco and with his return this season, he could finish as a TE1 by season's end. Pitta is definitely a fantasy stock on the rise.

This is tight end Jacob Tamme's second season with the Falcons. With all the changes at the wide receiver position and lack of experience, the veteran tight end could see himself vulturing a lot of opportunities in the pass game. Through the first two weeks he's averaging 8 targets per game, most on the team and his 11 receptions also leads the teams passing game. For the moment, Tamme looks like a solid stock trend on the upside.

Stock Falling

The Dolphins veteran runner Arian Foster is coming off a serious injury from a year ago and with a history of being banged up, his prognosis for staying healthy does not look good. Already slated to miss Sunday Week 3, Foster stock is sliding fast.

The Chiefs running back, Jamaal Charles looks like he could be active this Sunday, but having missed the first two games and coming off a torn ACL from a year ago, fantasy owners should keep their expectations in check. Charles could see action, but there's no question right now, at best he'll be sharing duties with running back Spence Ware. Charles stock, for the price likely paid in most drafts is over-valued until we see something worthy of an early round draft pick.

Through two weeks, the Lions wide receiver Golden Tate has seen plenty of targets with 16, but his 9 receptions has only accounted for 54 yards. He's definitely an active target in the short passing game, unfortunately for owners he's not doing much after the catch and until that changes, his stock will continue to fall.

The Steelers wide receiver Marcus Wheaton has yet to see any action this season, but does look like he could be on the field this Sunday. Lets roll him out on the trading floor and see what he can do against the Eagles on Sunday, before we buy into any of stock. For now his value is flatlining.

That's my take for Week 3

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 17th, 2016
Saturday

Week 2 Four Horsemen

After quickly glancing at this week's matchups on Sunday, here are a few names that jump off the board as possible fantasy stud plays for Week 2. 

Here are my Four Horsemen for NFL Sunday Week 2.

QB-Philip Rivers (Chargers)
The Chargers lost a tough one in week one letting an 18 point half-time lead slip away and again it was a tale of two tapes. Against a tough Chiefs defense quarterback Philip Rivers started fast completing 16 of 20 passes for 151 yards and a score. In the second half along with the offense is where Rivers struggled. This week look for the savvy vet to rebound and finish strong at home on Sunday. Rivers lost a big weapon with wide receiver Keenan Allen going down, but he'll still have plenty of targets with Travis Benjamin, Antonio Gates, and Danny Woodhead. Rivers will be facing a Jaguars defense that allowed 199 yards passing and two scores in week one to the Packers. If Rivers is afforded the time, he'll pick apart the secondary and should post some strong week 2 fantasy numbers; 22 of 29 passes, 277 yards passing, three touchdown passes!

RB-Rashad Jennings (Giants)
Week one was anything but blistering for the Giants running back Rashad Jennings, but for fantasy owners his 19 touches were a big positive. This week the Giants offense will match up with Saints defense that was obliterated for 486 yards of offense in week one, including 169 yards on the ground. Jennings has some success in week one with 75 yards on the ground, but he should definitely improve on his totals and 4.2 yards per carry average against a run defense that allowed 6.4 yards per carry and three scores. This Sunday Jennings should be a top 10 fantasy play; 19 carries, 95 yards, two rushing touchdowns!

WR-Golden Tate (Lions)
The Lions slot man, Golden Tate was perfect in week one, catching 7 passes on 7 targets. This week he could feast even more against a visiting Titans secondary. The match up is not necessarily a fantasy frenzy, the Lions just have a lot of weapons and will present a lot of match up problems for Tennessee. And back in week one, the Titans struggled to keep up with Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs; Tate owners take note. With his seven targets last week, Tate is a big part of the passing game and Stafford looked sharp a week ago; expect similar production with an added score; 6 receptions, 90 yards receiving, and a touchdown. 

TE-Delanie Walker (Titans)
Here's a match up fantasy owners should be all-in on. In week one the Lions pass defense allowed 7 receptions (on 10 targets) for 88 yards receiving, and three touchdowns to the tight end position. This week tight end Delanie Walker and the Titans come to town. Walker has been a rising star at the TE position the past couple of seasons and after a slow start in week one, 3 receptions (on five targets) for 42 yards, expect the Titans to get him going early and often. Last season Walker posted career numbers (94 receptions, 1,088 yards receiving, 6 touchdowns) with rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota under center, this season the duo will be looking to improve. Fantasy owners can expect a good start this Sunday; 7 receptions, 85 yards receiving, 1 touchdown.

That's my take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 29th, 2010 Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

ROBERT MEACHEM BLOWS UP MONDAY NIGHT
One of the Saints big play deep threats has been on and off all season, but Monday night he came up big with his best game of the season. Meachem racked up 10 catches for 101 yards receiving off 13 targets (his most targets in a single game all season).
My Fantasy Read:
The Saints still have a lot to play for with a division title still up for grabs. Although he’s coming off a solid Monday night, Meachem is too inconsistent to be relied upon. Brees has the ability to spread the ball around to any of his receiving options making Meachem a risky play at best.

JOSH FREEMAN HAS A FANTASY SUNDAY
The Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman saved his best for last (or at least week 16). Last Sunday against the Seahawks Freeman was brilliant completing 21 of 26 passes, throwing five touchdown, and passing for 237 yards in the team’s week 16 win.
My Fantasy Read:
The Buccaneers are still battling for a post-season berth, so Freeman could be a preferred option under center with names like Brady, Vick, and Cutler expected to see limited action on Sunday.

MATT CASSEL IS COOL ON SUNDAY
With a division title hanging in the balance the Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel was cool in the clutch leading his team to their 10th win of the season and their first division title since 2003. Cassel completed 24 of 34 passes for over 300 yards (only the second time this season) an tossed three touchdowns (27 this season).
My Fantasy Read:
Even with the division wrapped up, the Chiefs are not expected to rest their starters this weekend. Although there is not a lot to gain with a win, Cassel will start and should be one of the more reliable starters this weekend.

DANNY WOODHEAD FINDS PAY-DIRT
The Patriots running back Danny Woodhead took advantage of some extra work last Sunday rushing for 93 yards with a touchdown on 13 carries. Woodhead was also effective in the pass game snagging three balls on four targets for 32 yards. His 125 total yards of offense was his most productive game of the season.
My Fantasy Read:
The Patriots’ small package of dynamite continues to be a valuable asset to the offense, but with Woodhead only averaging 10-12 touches per game he typically has limited fantasy value as a flex option. With the Patriots wrapping up the division and home field this past week Woodhead could see some extended action this coming Sunday.

DOMINIC RHODES GETS SOME WORK ON SUNDAY
The Colts running game received a much needed boost last Sunday from running back Dominic Rhodes. It was only his second game back with the Colts, but Rhodes took advantage of the opportunity rushing for 98 yards on 17 carries.
My Fantasy Read:
It was a nice afternoon for the returning Colt, but with Joseph Addai (12 carries for 45 yards) returning to action Rhodes is only going to see fewer touches going forward. His fantasy stardom looks short lived.

FSH: MY WEEKLY SURVIVAL

November 25th, 2010, Thursday

My Weekly Survivors

Last week was not our best week, although our fantasy team did not suffer too much damage. With players like DeSean Jackson (5 points) and Percy Harvin (2 points) not living up to the hype, my fantasy team struggled it’s way to 73 total points. It was enough to keep the team locked inside the top ten, but we’ll need big improvement in the coming weeks to reach the leaders.

A few notables and highlights from last weeks picks include a great performance from running back Fred Jackson (24 points) who finished with 116 yards rushing with two touchdowns. Matt Ryan was also a solid start under center adding 20 point s by passing for 253 yards and tossing two scores. We’ll need of this type of production in week 12 if we hope to make another push to the top in the standings.

The well continues to dry, so again we’ll be scrapping the bottom and the sides to see what we can find in the coming weeks, but for the week 12 slate of games here’s what we got;

Here are my picks for week 12….

QB-Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs
Since week six, no other quarterback in the NFL has more passing touchdowns than Matt Cassel; he has 14 and just one interception. Cassel is also averaging 19 fantasy points during this stretch. Sunday he’ll face the league’s 30th ranked pass defense and if given the time (has only been sacked 15 times this season) Cassel could have another nice afternoon.
(Projected: 20 fantasy points/ 285 yards passing, 11 rushing yards, two touchdowns)

RB- Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
There’s only one thing to say here, it’s Chris Johnson. The NFL’s leading rusher a year ago is not having quite a 2,000 yard season, but this Sunday will help him to try and get back on track. In his last two games against the Texans Johnson is averaging 174 yards rushing and has scored three times. I am looking for another big game this week.
(Projected: 22 fantasy points/ 115 yards rushing, 5 catches, 55 yards receiving, one touchdown)

RB-Danny Woodhead, New England Patriots
Quietly this kid is becoming a fantasy football underground favorite. After “Hardknocks” then being picked up by the Patriots after the Jets let him go, the 5’6” package of dynamite has been a welcomed addition to the New England offense. Woodhead is coming off two solid performances scoring 15 and 19 fantasy points. Against the Lions this week he could make it three in a row.
(Projected: 14 fantasy points/ 55 yards rushing, 5 catches, 35 yards receiving, one touchdown)

WR-Santonio Holmes, New York Jets
Since becoming active with the team in week five, Holmes has gradually evolved into Mark Sanchez’s favorite target; leads the team with 49 targets over that stretch. Last week Holmes brokeout with a big game catching 7 balls for over 100-yards receiving with a couple of scores. He may not be looking at the same production Thursday night, but against the Bengals he’ll do just fine.
(Projected: 15 fantasy points/ 6 catches, 95 yards, one touchdown)

WR-Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings
We tried one Viking last week why not try another this week? What I liked about Rice’s performance last week; 48 snaps and 56 receiving yards with three catches. With another full week of practice to get the timing down, I would expect more improvement this Sunday.
(Projected: 14 fantasy points/ 5 catches, 85 yards, one touchdown)

TE-Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers
If you have been following the Bills defense this season you know the tight end position has scored very well more often than not. Last week the Bengals did not take advantage, but with Pittsburgh Big Ben likes his tight end Heath Miller a lot and should take advantage. Miller won’t make many grabs, but he is facing a defense that has allowed 8 touchdowns to the tight end.
(Projected: 10 fantasy points/ 4 catches, 40 yards, one touchdown)

PK-Matt Bryant, Atlanta Falcons
Picking kickers this season has not been one of my strengths, but in a game (Packers-Falcon) that has the feel of a lot of scoring, I am counting on the Falcon’s kicker Matt Bryant to have plenty of opportunities to add a few points to the board.
(Projected: 9 fantasy points/ two field goals, three extra points)

My Previous starts

Week 1 (Total points-77)
QB Donovan McNabb (WAS)
RB Matt Forte (CHI)
RB Carnell Williams (TB)
WR Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
WR Jabar Gaffney (DEN)
TE Zach Miller (OAK)
K Joe Nedney (SF)

Week 2 (Total points-68)
QB Michael Vick (PHI)
RB Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)
RB Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
WR Nate Washington (TEN)
WR Greg Jennings (GB)
TE Chris Cooley (WAS)
K Nick Folk (NYJ)

Week 3 (Total points-87)
QB Tony Romo (DAL)
RB Darren McFadden
RB Ray Rice (BAL)
WR Austin Collie (IND)
WR Dez Bryant (DAL)
TE Brent Celek (PHI)
K Lawrence Tynes (NYG)

Week 4 (Total points-58)
QB Eli Manning (NYG)
RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
RB Frank Gore (SF)
WR Mark Clayton (STL)
WR Brandon Marshall (MIA)
TE John Carlson (SEA)
K Jeff Reed (PIT)

Week 5 (Total Points-72 points)
QB Drew Brees (NO)
RB Steven Jackson (STL)
RB Thomas Jones (KC)
WR Donald Driver (GB)
WR Calvin Johnson (DET)
TE Marcedes Lewis (JAX)
K Mike Nugent (CIN)

Week 6 (Total Points-83 points)
QB Peyton Manning (IND)
RB Ryan Torain (WASH)
RB LaDanian Tomlinson (NYJ)
WR Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
WR Kenny Britt (TEN)
TE Dallas Clark, (IND)
K Sebastian Janikowski (OAK)

Week 7 (Total Points-93 points)
QB Philip Rivers (SD)
RB Adrian Peterson (MIN)
RB Michael Turner (ATL)
WR Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
WR Dwayne Bowe (KC)
TE Tony Gonzales (ATL)
K Matt Prater (DEN)

Week 8 (Total Points-82 points)
QB Kyle Orton (DEN)
RB Felix Jones (DAL)
RB Jamaal Charles (KC)
WR Brandon Lloyd (DEN)
WR Deion Branch (NE)
TE Tony Moeki (KC)
K Stephen Gostkowski (NE)

Week 9 (Total Points-79 points)
QB Aaron Rodgers (GB)
RB LeSean McCoy (PHI)
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE)
WR Steve Smith (NYG)
WR Patrick Crayton (SD)
TE Jacob Tamme (IND)
PK Mason Crosby

Week 10 (Total Points-78 points)
QB Joe Flacco (BAL)
RB LeGarrette Blount (TB)
RB Cedric Benson (CIN)
WR Roddy White (ATL)
WR Steve Johnson (BUF)
TE Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
PK Rob Bironas (TEN)

Week 11 (Total Points-73 points)
QB Matt Ryan (ATL)
RB Fred Jackson (BUF)
RB Peyton Hillis (CLE)
WR DeSean Jackson (PHI)
WR Percy Harvin (MIN)
TE Jermaine Gresham (CIN)
PK Dan Carpenter (MIA)