FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 30th 2017

Monday Morning Edition

Monday Night Takes
(Week 8)

It’s a divisional matchup, a meeting of two potential playoff contenders, and as always a heated AFC West rivalry when the Broncos and the Chiefs clash. Tonight’s meeting shouldn’t disappoint fantasy owners with the Chiefs Alex Smith, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt playing host to the Broncos Trevor Siemian, Demaryius Thomas, and Jamaal Charles.

This could be a tale of two cities or two teams. This season the Chiefs offense (ranked 2nd in total yards, 3rd in scoring) has been off the charts with Smith having an MVP-like season passing the ball, and the emergence of rookie running back Kareem Hunt; he’s been sensational out of the gate.

On the other side, it’s been a different story for Siemian and the Broncos (ranked 15th total yards and 24 in scoring). The Broncos defense has been good this season, but against a team like the Chiefs, they’ll need some help from the offense in this one.

My Takes.

QB-Alex Smith; the Chiefs signal caller has been good this season, but an improved pass rush with the return of Broncos linebacker Shane Ray could slow his roll on Monday night. Fantasy owners looking for a big game from Smith should temper their expectations.

RB-Kareem Hunt; as good as this kid has been this season, it’s hard to imagine any team shutting him down. He was held in check two weeks ago by the Steelers with just 21 rushing yards, but he still managed 89 receiving. The Broncos could keep him bottled up most of the night, but with his volume of touches he should still see double-digit fantasy points.

WR-Demarcus Robinson; it’s going to be tough night for the Chiefs passing game, but with a lot of focus on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce (who will both get their usual opportunities), I like Robinson flying under the radar. He won’t be in for a big night, but he may be able to match his season highs in receptions and yards.

TE-Travis Kelce; if the Broncos defense has a weakness it appears to be covering opposing tight ends. Kelce should be heavily involved tonight and could have a big night. With the defenses concerns focused on stopping Smith and Hunt in the backfield, Kelce is a safe play for owners.

QB-Trevor Siemian; the Broncos passer has not been a fantasy option in weeks and with a tough road matchup (in Arrowhead) on Monday night, I’m not expecting Trevor to summon his inner Peyton. He could have a decent night against a struggling Chiefs secondary, but he’s still not a fantasy option in this matchup.

RB-Jamaal Charles; the Broncos are likely to stick with their ineffective game script of going with CJ Anderson (so he’s the much safer play tonight) early and sprinkling in Charles at times. Being that this is Charles’ old team, the revenge factor does come up. If Charles can break loose for a couple of big plays, this could open up more snaps and touches. Charles has been the more explosive and efficient option this season, the question is will head coach Vance Joseph take a longer look at his speedy back tonight. Charles is too risky for redraft lineups, but could be a flier option in DFS.

WR-Demaryius Thomas; it all comes down to his quarterback, how well DT plays or produces. The offense has been woeful, but thankfully they get a struggling secondary tonight. The bad thing is the game is on the road in Arrowhead where emotions will run high and that could be enough to change things.Regardless of the success or lack of, DT should see enough targets to provide his usual safe (in PPR) 5 for 55.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 13th 2017

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five

Another exciting Sunday approaches as we are already underway with week 6, following Thursday night’s exciting finish between the Eagles and Panthers. And like the great game we watched Thursday, I am looking for a lot of great and a lot of exciting on Sunday. Here are five things I will be following on Sunday;

#1. The Giants are a mess, time to strike.

Injuries and in-house feuding has the G-men in turmoil. The offense has been decimated with injuries and the defense is a mess with players being suspended. If there was ever a time for the Broncos offense to strike, this Sunday night could be it. Coming off the bye quarterback Trevor Siemian will be looking to kickstart the passing game, while the Jamaal Charles and CJ Anderson will be looking to lead the running game against a 29th ranked Giants run defense.

#2. Steelers Offense needs a Spark.

After a horrid week 5 performance at home against the Jaguars, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the offense are in dire need of a spark. Running back Le’Veon Bell has been anchoring the run game, but what the offense has been missing are the big plays from the passing game. There’s been talk about giving wide receiver Martavis Bryant a break, I don’t buy it. He’s unquestionably your most explosive offensive player, he’s got to be involved this Sunday against the Chiefs. I’ve watched a number of Steelers games this season, and there have been numerous close misses between Big Ben and Martavis. I look for the two to take a number of shots this week and finally dial in a couple for the spark they need.

#3. Watch John Brown on Sunday.

The Cardinals speedy playmaking receiver John Brown has been practicing and getting healthier each week. Last Sunday Brown was targeted 7 times, snagging two balls for 26 yards and a score. Not big numbers in week 5, but his 7 targets equaled the number of targets he saw in week 4. As long as Brown continues to see a steady diet of looks, he’s going to have fantasy value; and this week adds an appetizing matchup against the Buccaneers 26th ranked pass defense.

#4. Deshaun a Stud; It’s Elementary my Dear Watson.

After back-to-back brilliant performances, the Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is educating the rest of the league as to how good this stud really is. Through five weeks Watson has cemented himself as a Top-10 fantasy QB. With a date against the Browns this Sunday and a defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, Watson will once again be putting his theory to the test.

#5. Mack’s time is coming, maybe sooner than later.

Father time has a way of calling when you least expect it and don’t want to listen. While Colts running back Frank Gore has been actively involved in the passing game the past couple of weeks, his rushing numbers have not been impressive; just 151 yards rushing on 51 carries in his last three starts. Rookie running back Marlon Mack had his first breakout game last week totaling 91 yards on 9 carries. The dominant running performance will surely earn him more time on the field and while we’re not ready to retire Gore just yet, you can bet Mack’s time is coming and he should be owned in fantasy leagues.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 5th, 2017

Thursday Late Night Edition

My Week 4 Recap

(Week Four Fallout)

For Vikings fans, it was fun while it lasted, although it didn't last very long before quarterback Case Keenum came back to earth. In Week 3 Keenum was brilliant, but this past Sunday against a tough Lions defense he did not have the same success. This is something fantasy owners are going to have to realize going forward, with starter Sam Bradford sidelined the value of players like Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph will take a hit from time to time.

Week 4 also offered some eye-opening performances to take note, like the play of rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson. Coming off a solid week 3 performance against the Patriots, Watson doubled down in week 5 with a huge 5-touchdown (4 pass, 1 rush) showing. DeMarco Murray provided less eye-opening and more mystery as his 2017 season continued it's flutter. He's had only one start worthy game in four tries; fantasy owners are scratching their heads.

The Giants running game situation is not one that has been envious thus far this season. One of it's components that been a disappointment has been Paul Perkins. Through 4 games Perkins has been awful averaging just 2 yards per rushing attempt and totaling just  61 yards rushing; he's completely off the fantasy radar.

A concern to watch for fantasy owners is the Redskins wide receiver Jamison Crowder. Last season Crowder finished 2016 as the No.31 fantasy WR (in PPR) with 67 catches for 847 yards and 7 touchdowns. Through 4 games he's currently outside the Top-50 and in week four he was targeted just one time. Considering where you took Crowder in your draft, there's reason to be concerned.

This is just some of the fallout from week 4, running through the slate of games here's a few more observations;

#1. Big Ben and Martavis out of sync.

Through 4 weeks, these two have yet to really hook up and blow up as they did in 2015. Bryant has been limited to no more than 3 catches (twice this season) per game while only topping 50 yards receiving once; 91 yards in week 2. Big Ben on the other has not caught fire either. In four games Big Ben has yet to pass for 300 yards and has multiple touchdowns in only two games this season, the last one in week 2. Fantasy owners are waiting for these two to get cooking and this Sunday they may be again waiting since the two will face Jacksonville.

#2. Is Broncos RB Jamaal Charles underused?

The Broncos don't have any problems in their backfield right now, with CJ Anderson holding down the fort, Jamaal Charles healthy, and Devontae Booker returning from injury, they have depth and experience. One noticable statistic that is hard to avoid, is the yards per touch; currently Charles at 5.4 yards per dominates this category more than a half yard better than CJ. The other important stat is CJ has 83 touches to Charles 36. Jam is healthy and at times looks explosive. With Booker healthy, it may be time to give Charles some run and see what he can do with the reins or at least with an extended look. Big plays is one of the elements the Broncos offense is lacking.

#3. Palmer back in play with his receiving cast.

With both wide receivers JJ Nelson and John Brown returning to action in Week 4, Palmer passed for over 300 yards for the third straight week in a row. One element missing from his game right now is touchdowns; Palmer has just six in four games (a little on the low side). He's got a prime matchup this week agains the Eagles, so Palmer is definitely in play.

#4. Giovani Bernard needs more touches in Cincy.

Quite simply, with the Bengals offense in flux there's been a search at the running back position for production and consistency. Through the first quarter of the season, the Bengal may still be looking. Right now the lead horse in the backfield is rookie running back Joe Mixon with 63 touches is ranked as the 33rd fantasy RB in PPR. Running back Giovani Bernard has 26 touches this season and is currently the 28th ranked fantasy RB. Giovani needs more touches.

#5. In case you don't know, Kamara is the Saint to own.

If you been watching or listening to the buzz out of New Orleans, then you know the favorite in the Saints backfield is rookie Alvin Kamara. Through the teams first 4 games, Kamara leads the backfield in yards per carry average (5.53), receiving targets (28), receiving yards (147), and touchdowns (2). Kamara is also the 19th ranked fantasy RB in PPR, as compared to starter Mark Ingram ranked 26th. Kamara is the one to own in New Orleans.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 1st, 2017

Sunday Early Morning Edition

Who are you Starting & Sitting (Week 4)

Start or Sit

(Sunday’s Games)

Marcus Mariota (start) The Titans are on the road this week, but that shouldn't slow quarterback Marcus Mariota. Currently the No.10 fantasy QB Mariota will look to increase his numbers today against a Texans defense that allows the 8th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks; start him.

Marquise Lee (start) How often will you hear anyone say to start a Jaguars receiver. With Allen Robinson done for the season, Lee who emerged in the second half of last season has started to become more active with 19 targets over his last two games. If he stays involved today, look for him to find the end zone for the first time this season.

Kelvin Benjamin (start) The Panthers wide out was removed from the injury report, so he should be good to go and I like him today against the Patriots. The Pats have allowed the 5th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers; start Benjamin.

Adam Thielen (start) The Vikings passing game has received a new injection with the surprise play of quarterback Case Keenum. Through the two weeks Keenum has started, Thielen has been effective; 10 receptions for 142 yards over the past 2 weeks. I expect another productive day from Thielen, start him.

Austin Hopper (sit) The Falcons tight end has not been a big part of the offense this early part of the season with just 6 targets through 3 games. Don’t expect Hooper to get kickstarted today against a Bills defense that has been stingy against opposing tight ends.

Joe Flacco (sit) After last weeks dismal performance, I don’t expect there are too many rolling with Flacco today. He should have been on your bench last week and that’s where he should stay today. The Steelers defense limits opposing quarterbacks to the 3rd fewest fantasy points, sit no go Joe.

Isaiah Crowell (sit) Crowell has quietly become a forgotten man in fantasy through the first three weeks. Crowell was expected to be a top 20 fantasy runner, currently No.40 in PPR, today’s matchup against the Bengals is not likely to help his cause. Sit the Crow.

Sammy Watkins (start) This is a gut call, but I also like the matchup. Watkins will be available week 4 and the big play receiver should have success working against a Cowboys secondary that has allowed the 5th most receptions and 4 touchdowns to opposing receivers. Start Sammy.

Travis Benjamin (start) A Philip Rivers favorite in the passing game it seems, Benjamin was pretty good a week ago with 5 receptions for 105 yards receiving. The two should have no problem keeping this combo rolling against an Eagles defense that has allowed the most receptions to opposing receivers. Start him.

Paul Perkins (sit) The Giants run game has been non-existent and even more so running back Paul Perkins has done nothing through three games. He may eventually get things turned around, but too risky to chance today. Sit Perkins.

Chris Johnson (start) CJ2K looked a little rusty last week, so with another week of practicing perhaps he can get his wheels spinning into a higher gear. He’s got the matchup to make some noise today against the Niner’s 22nd ranked run defense.

Jamaal Charles (start) This is not too bold, but it’s risky, start Jam today against the Raiders. Last week Charles played out as a nice flex option with 56 yards and a score. He’ll get a few more carries today and I like his chances to break one against the league’s 19th ranked run defense (Raiders).

Paul Richardson (start) The Seahawks receiver has had a nose for the end zone in the early going this season with two scores. The Colts allow the 9th most fantasy points to opposing WRs, I like Richardson here to be more involved, especially with Baldwin less than 100 percent. Start Richardson.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 29th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Week 4 RB Rankings

Running Backs (does not include Thurs)

1. Kareem Hunt

2. LeSean McCoy

3. Ezekiel Elliott

4. Jay Ajayi

5. Devonta Freeman

6. Todd Gurley

7. Le’Veon Bell

8. Dalvin Cook

9. Leonard Fournette

10. DeMarco Murray

11. Melvin Gordon

12. Marshawn Lynch

13. Carlos Hyde

14. CJ Anderson

15. Lamar Miller

16. Chris Carson

17. Christian McCaffrey

18. Ameer Abdullah

19. Joe Mixon

20. Terrance West

21. Mark Ingram

22. Jonathan Stewart

23. Frank Gore

24. Chris Thompson

25. Isaiah Crowell

26. Mike Gillislee

27. Jacquizz Rodgers

28. Tevin Coleman

29. Duke Johnson

30. Javorius Allen

The Chiefs rookie running back Kareem Hunt has been on fire to start the season and back on the big stage Monday night against the Redskins he’s looking to continue. He may find little space this week against the Redskins 4th ranked run defense, but no way is he sitting. Hunt has the big play knack and with 137 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns he has great value in PPR regardless.

I am running with Bills running back LeSean McCoy in week 4. Last week the Broncos number three ranked run defense had the no.17 fantasy runner boxed up, but this week McCoy gets the Falcons. It should be easier sledding for the Bills ball carrier facing a Falcons defense that ranks 8th, but has seen the 4th fewest carries and allows the 3rd most yards per carry.

I am not down on Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell this week, just keeping his numbers real at No. 7 this week. Bell is currently ranked as the No.15 fantasy running back, but should do well this week facing the Ravens 18th ranked run defense.

I’ve move Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch down a few spots this week, but owners proceed with caution. The Broncos run defense has been stout through three weeks, no reason to see this change. Yards will be hard to find, but Lynch will see the lionshare and could get some goal line work for an short score.

In the same game, I am not real high on Broncos running back CJ Anderson. He’ll likely see his usual workload, but what could derail his efforts is Jamaal Charles. If Charles gets into the game and has early success, he could cut into Anderson’s carries.

I’ve moved Redskins running back Chris Thompson up to No.24 this week, but don’t be surprised if he cracks the Top-20. Thompson has been on fire the past two weeks and as the rest of the offense heats up, Thompson’s upside skyrockets. Last week Thompson recorded 14 touches, expect the Redskins to try and get him to that number again this week.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 29th 2017

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five

5 Things to Watch this Week

We are three weeks in and we’ve seen some football, but is it still too early to call it; who the best team is, who the best studs are, and what we can expect the rest of the way? I’d have to say hold that thought. Remember “Any Given Sunday” anything can happen, which leads me to my week 4 “Fantasy Five”...

Can Raiders and Carr bounce back?

Normally I would say that’s a given. Quarterback Derek Carr has that Rodgers like swag, lots of talent and plenty of weapons to go around. The only exception here is the Raiders next opponent; the Denver Broncos. But which Broncos team will show up? Last week the Bills had an fairly easy go. The Broncos have remained stout against the run, so keep Lynch in the stall this week, but I would hang with Carr on Sunday. but don’t expect his greatest success this week. The

Is it time to turn Charles loose?

Last week we saw flashes and throughout these early weeks of the season we’ve seen hints. The Broncos running back Jamaal Charles looks healthy, he’s been running well, it’s time. Last week an ineffective run game for the most part submarined there hopes of winning on the road. I think you have to commit to Charles now if you are ever going to. Turn him loose and see what he can do. You have the luxury of a 1A-1B option in CJ, so you can use him to close games to save the thoroughbred. For now, Charles is still a risky flex, but my gut senses say he’s getting closer to cracking the starting lineup.

Do you trust Eli and the Giants offense?

I for one did not draft too many Giants this season, but I do have Odell Beckham Jr in a couple of leagues, along with running backs Paul Perkins and Shane Vereen. Needless to say after the first few weeks of seeing the mess this offense is, I’ve dropped Vereen and Perkins in a number. OBJ is still in my lineups for the 2-3 leagues I have him in, but it’s painful considering where I drafted him and what I’ve gotten in return. I think you have to wait it out with OBJ, but (Evan) Engram, Perkins, Vereen, and Marshall I am avoiding for the time being.

How good are the Rams and how good is Sean McVay?

It’s too early to be making such grand and bold statements, suggesting the Rams and quarterback Jared Goff are a great offense. But I’ll tell you, through the first three weeks I like what I see and I am buying into what McVay is selling. He’s put some nice pieces together and Goff is night and day from a year ago. I don’t believe we are at the point where you are starting everyone on this offense (just Gurley at the moment, Watkins is a flex), but we are moving closer and closer to seeing others become more prominent as fantasy fixtures. Stay patient.

Can Cousins repeat against Chiefs?

Week 3 was a wake up call for the Redskins offense last week and they were wide awake taking it to the Raiders. They will follow last week’s call with a big road test on Monday night against the Chiefs. Can Cousins repeat his scintillating Sunday night performance, it will be tough. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the loudest places to play in the NFL, but my belief is Cousins is starting to warm up this season and like Alex Smith (who will be on the other side), he’ll have company. Running back Chris Thompson is going to a matchup problem, tight end Jordan Reed (if healthy) will present some issues in the secondary, and the emergence of Josh Doctson who should be on fantasy radars. Cousins should be well equipped and fine on Monday night. He’ll present plenty of problems for the Chiefs defense that before Thursday night have allowed the 7th most passing yards this season.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 13th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

My Week 2 RB Rankings (PPR)

1. Le’Veon Bell

2. LeSean McCoy

3. Leonard Fournette

4. Ezekiel Elliott

5. Melvin Gordon

6. Jay Ajayi

7. Devonta Freeman

8. Kareem Hunt

9. Marshawn Lynch

10. Todd Gurley

11. Ty Montgomery

12. DeMarco Murray

13. Dalvin Cook

14. Jordan Howard

15. Mark Ingram

16. Christian McCaffrey

17. CJ Anderson

18. Isaiah Crowell

19. Lamar Miller

20. Carlos Hyde

21. Bilal Powell

22. Terrance West

23. Jacquizz Rodgers

24. Ameer Abdullah

25. Jonathan Stewart

26. James White

27. Mike Gillislee

28. Tevin Coleman

29. Tarik Cohen

30. Javorius Allen

Although he struggled in his first week back, I have to put Bell at the top of my rankings for Week 2. He’ll be featured in the short-passing game as well as the run game this Sunday against the Vikings, so what he’ll lack on the ground he will more than make up in the air.

I’ve moved the rookie Leonard Fournette way up my rankings this week. He’ll face a Titans defense that yielded 76 yards rushing (on 18 carries) to Marshawn Lynch a week ago, but Fournette will get more than just 18 chances.

I’m going to buy into the Chiefs rookie running back Kareem Hunt this week, but I’m not going overboard. I have him ranked 9th this week, going against a pretty good Eagles front, he’s a dual threat and will stay productive out of the backfield.

I’ve dropped DeMarco Murray a few slots; not thrilled with his matchup this week against the Jaguars defense. This one will be close throughout, so Murray should see even touches to salvage the day.

The Saints and Patriots could be locked up in a shootout this Sunday and while it’s hard to figure who’s going to see the majority of snaps, I favor Mark Ingram (ranked 15th this week). The Saints rookie Alvin Kamara actually saw more snaps in the backfield than Ingram did last week, but the veteran was considerably more productive; even with Adrian Peterson’s presence I expect Ingram to lead the way.

I have said before that I like Jamaal Charles over CJ Anderson, but until the Broncos coaching staff commits to giving JC an extended look, Anderson will carry the reigns. Anderson was successful in week 1 totaling 81 yards on the ground on 20 carries and could see similar work this week. Charles will have to be patient.

Lastly, a notable insertion at the 23rd spot is Buccaneers running back Jacquizz Rodgers. Last season when Doug Martin went down, Rodgers was a strong fill-in averaging better than 4 yards per carry. He’ll be at home this week against the Bears and should see plenty of opportunity.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega