FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Night Edition
October 12th 2019

DSF Saturday

[Week 6: My Lineup Faves]

QB-DeShaun Watson ($6,700); Over the last three weeks, Watson is the Number 2 fantasy quarterback in scoring with 937 yards passing (ranks 5th), 8 passing touchdowns (ranks 2nd), 74% completions (ranks 4th), and 129.46 passer rating (ranks 1st). Watson will face a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th in total defense and could provide plenty of opportunity for another big Sunday.

RB-Mark Ingram II ($6,600); The Ravens running back is the No. 9 fantasy running back (PPR scoring) and is coming off back-to-back modest games in weeks 4 & 5. This Sunday Ingram will get his crack at a Bengals defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past four weeks. He has a great chance to rebound in a big way.

RB-Chris Thompson ($5,000); The Redskins ball carrier ranks as the No. 23 fantasy running back (PPR scoring) through 5 weeks. Thompson ranks 4th among running backs with 35 targets, 6th with 25 receptions, and 3rd with 268 yards receiving. While the Dolphins have not surrendered a lot in the passing game to opposing running backs over the course of the season, in week 4 they were torched by the Chargers for 97 yards receiving and two scores.

WR-DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400); Hopkins is due and at his current salary, he plays as a nice stack with Watson. The Chiefs defense has been awful against the run this season, which could open some play action and create some opportunities for Hopkins to do some downfield damage. Hopkins 44 targets through 5 games ranks tied for 7th; he should see plenty of opportunity on Sunday.

WR-Terry McLaurin ($6,000); The Redskins-Dolphins matchup should showcase little defense and open up some potential big play opportunities for both sides. With the return of Case Keenum under center, McLaurin will have a great chance to exploit a Dolphins defense that has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers through five games.

WR-Preston Williams ($4,100); In the same matchup, the Dolphins passing game could finally get off the ground this week facing a Redskins defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. Williams the No. 58 fantasy receiver this season (PPR scoring) has been a target hog leading the team with 30; this Sunday he’s got a shot to move up the ranks. 

TE-Zach Ertz ($5,400); The Vikings defense has been solid this season against the pass, ranked 6th this season, but if there is a chink in the armor; they have allowed the 13th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Ertz lead the team in targets with 45 and ranks 2nd in the league (among TEs). He’ll be a focal point in the pass game on Sunday.

Flex-Joe Mixon ($5,500); The Bengals running back will face a Ravens defense that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. At his current salary, Mixon is almost a must play.

DST-Redskins ($3,200); The Redskins are a value play, facing a turnover prone Dolphins offense this week.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 11th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 10 Injury Takes

RB-Jeremy Hill (ankle); The Bengals placed Hill on the Injured Reserve ending his season. For fantasy owners, this changes little. Rookie running back Joe Mixon has been the lead backs for weeks, but will now also pick up short yardage and goal-line duties increasing his long term fantasy value.

WR-Will Fuller (knee); the Texans wide receiver is not listed on the team’s injury report. Fuller will be a go for Sunday, but faces a tough matchup against a stingy Rams defense allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. With Watson out and Savage in, Fuller’s shine has dimmed significantly; he’s a borderline WR3/4 this week.

TE-Delanie Walker (ankle); the Titan’s tight is listed as questionable and could be a huge risky play this week for owners. Walker played through the injury last week and even though he’ll be at less than 100 percent (if he goes), he’s still in line to see a healthy dose of snaps. Walker remains a TE1 this week.

WR-Julio Jones (ankle); the Falcons wide receiver is not listed on the team’s injury report. Jones will be all-systems-go on Sunday and a must-start against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing receivers.

WR-Dez Bryant (ankle); the Cowboys playmaking receiver is listed as questionable for Sunday, but looks like he’ll be out there on Sunday. The Falcons have been pretty good against opposing receivers, but with the Cowboys minus Zeke, Sunday could become more of the Dez and Dak show.

WR-Chris Hogan (shoulder); the Patriots wide receiver has been ruled out for Sunday’s matchup with the Bronco’s No Fly Zone defense. With Hogan out, this should open more opportunities for both Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola.

RB-Matt Forte (knee); the Jets running back has been ruled out for Sunday. With Forte sidelined, Bilal Powell a borderline RB1 this week should handle lead duties, but Elijah McGuire will also figure in the mix as a low-end flex and DFS flier.

WR-Michael Thomas (ankle); the Saints receiver is not listed on team’s injury report. Thomas has been steady this season, but not spectacular. The Saints are away this week at Buffalo, with Thomas being a low-end WR2 against a Bills secondary that allows the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers.

WR-TY Hilton (groin); the Colts wide receiver is listed as questionable for Sunday against the Steelers. While Hilton is expected to play, he’ll be a huge risk option with the potential for a setback; owners should proceed with caution.

WR-Stefon Diggs (tooth); the Vikings wide receiver was not listed on the team’s final injury report. Diggs will be on the field Sunday drawing lots of attention from the Redskins Josh Norman, which could open up some opportunities for Adam Thielen.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 29th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Gametime

Week 8 has begun with two games in the books. I am just running down, my thoughts for Sunday morning, sprinkling a little bit of this and that for fantasy consideration. I don't have a crystal ball or hot-line to Matt Berry for info, so tread with caution;

Stud of the Week

I am all-in with Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen. The great thing here is the matchup against the Patriots and the fact the quarterback Philip Rivers has plenty of other options that should keep the defense honest. Allen has been a target monster at times this season, today could be another double-digit look and big production.

Dud of the Week

I am staying away for Niners running back Carlos Hyde. This is an ugly matchup for the Niners, over-matched on the defensive side facing the Eagles offense and likely to be overwhelmed this week on the offense side matching up against the league's number one rushing defense.

DFS favorites today

Joe Mixon; I like the rookie running back's matchup today. Mixon has been getting the bulk of the workload in the backfield and with today's matchup against the Colts, owners should see significant production in what I predict to be a breakout performance.

Kelvin Benjamin; the Panthers and quarterback Cam Newton look to rebound from the ambush at Soldier Field a week ago. Benjamin is going to be a primary target and should get a couple of scoring opportunities today. I like him a lot against the Bucs today.

Diamonds in the Rough

Mack Hollins; the explosive Eagles rookie receiver had one catch last week, but it was a big one; a 64 yard touchdown strike. A risky play in redraft leagues yes (maybe a flier in big DFS tournaments), but I like his chances today to get behind the Niners secondary for another big score.

Marlon Mack; the Colts rookie running back has been trending in the right direction with his snap count. He's a preferred option in the pass game and could potentially see significant play today in a game where the Colts could be playing catch-up most of the way.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 28th 2017

Saturday Night Edition

Week 8 RB Rankings

With a week 8 matchup against the Patriots this Sunday, Chargers running back Melvin Gordon is slotted at the number two spot. Gordon, the No.4 fantasy RB (PPR format) has been a dual threat this season and should heavily involved in the offense on Sunday; he’s a favorite this week.

He’s the lead back in the Bengals running game and this week’s meeting against the Colts could finally be breakout week for rookie running back Joe Mixon. The Colts have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points and most rushing touchdowns (8) to opposing running backs. This could be the week Mixon tops his season high 62 rushing yards set back in week 3 and finds the end zone (for the second time this season).

The Niners allow the most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have surrendered the most receptions and receiving yards making Wendell Smallwood a week 8 flex favorite. Smallwood hasn’t done much this season, but this Sunday could be very different.

RB Rankings

1. Le’Veon Bell

2. Melvin Gordon

3. LeSean McCoy

4. Kareem Hunt

5. Ezekiel Elliott

6. Mark Ingram

7. Jordan Howard

8. Devonta Freeman

9. Alvin Kamara

10. Christian McCaffrey

11. Joe Mixon

12. Jerick McKinnon

13. Doug Martin

14. Chris Thompson

15. Ameer Abdullah

16. Lamar Miller

17. Carlos Hyde

18. James White

19. Duke Johnson

20. Latavius Murray

21. CJ Anderson

22. Tevin Coleman

23. Jalen Richard

24. Dion Lewis

25. Wendell Smallwood

26. Matt Forte

27. LeGarrette Blount

28. Bilal Powell

29. Tarik Cohen

30. Theo Riddick

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 5th, 2017

Thursday Late Night Edition

My Week 4 Recap

(Week Four Fallout)

For Vikings fans, it was fun while it lasted, although it didn't last very long before quarterback Case Keenum came back to earth. In Week 3 Keenum was brilliant, but this past Sunday against a tough Lions defense he did not have the same success. This is something fantasy owners are going to have to realize going forward, with starter Sam Bradford sidelined the value of players like Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph will take a hit from time to time.

Week 4 also offered some eye-opening performances to take note, like the play of rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson. Coming off a solid week 3 performance against the Patriots, Watson doubled down in week 5 with a huge 5-touchdown (4 pass, 1 rush) showing. DeMarco Murray provided less eye-opening and more mystery as his 2017 season continued it's flutter. He's had only one start worthy game in four tries; fantasy owners are scratching their heads.

The Giants running game situation is not one that has been envious thus far this season. One of it's components that been a disappointment has been Paul Perkins. Through 4 games Perkins has been awful averaging just 2 yards per rushing attempt and totaling just  61 yards rushing; he's completely off the fantasy radar.

A concern to watch for fantasy owners is the Redskins wide receiver Jamison Crowder. Last season Crowder finished 2016 as the No.31 fantasy WR (in PPR) with 67 catches for 847 yards and 7 touchdowns. Through 4 games he's currently outside the Top-50 and in week four he was targeted just one time. Considering where you took Crowder in your draft, there's reason to be concerned.

This is just some of the fallout from week 4, running through the slate of games here's a few more observations;

#1. Big Ben and Martavis out of sync.

Through 4 weeks, these two have yet to really hook up and blow up as they did in 2015. Bryant has been limited to no more than 3 catches (twice this season) per game while only topping 50 yards receiving once; 91 yards in week 2. Big Ben on the other has not caught fire either. In four games Big Ben has yet to pass for 300 yards and has multiple touchdowns in only two games this season, the last one in week 2. Fantasy owners are waiting for these two to get cooking and this Sunday they may be again waiting since the two will face Jacksonville.

#2. Is Broncos RB Jamaal Charles underused?

The Broncos don't have any problems in their backfield right now, with CJ Anderson holding down the fort, Jamaal Charles healthy, and Devontae Booker returning from injury, they have depth and experience. One noticable statistic that is hard to avoid, is the yards per touch; currently Charles at 5.4 yards per dominates this category more than a half yard better than CJ. The other important stat is CJ has 83 touches to Charles 36. Jam is healthy and at times looks explosive. With Booker healthy, it may be time to give Charles some run and see what he can do with the reins or at least with an extended look. Big plays is one of the elements the Broncos offense is lacking.

#3. Palmer back in play with his receiving cast.

With both wide receivers JJ Nelson and John Brown returning to action in Week 4, Palmer passed for over 300 yards for the third straight week in a row. One element missing from his game right now is touchdowns; Palmer has just six in four games (a little on the low side). He's got a prime matchup this week agains the Eagles, so Palmer is definitely in play.

#4. Giovani Bernard needs more touches in Cincy.

Quite simply, with the Bengals offense in flux there's been a search at the running back position for production and consistency. Through the first quarter of the season, the Bengal may still be looking. Right now the lead horse in the backfield is rookie running back Joe Mixon with 63 touches is ranked as the 33rd fantasy RB in PPR. Running back Giovani Bernard has 26 touches this season and is currently the 28th ranked fantasy RB. Giovani needs more touches.

#5. In case you don't know, Kamara is the Saint to own.

If you been watching or listening to the buzz out of New Orleans, then you know the favorite in the Saints backfield is rookie Alvin Kamara. Through the teams first 4 games, Kamara leads the backfield in yards per carry average (5.53), receiving targets (28), receiving yards (147), and touchdowns (2). Kamara is also the 19th ranked fantasy RB in PPR, as compared to starter Mark Ingram ranked 26th. Kamara is the one to own in New Orleans.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 23rd 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Who are you Starting & Sitting (Week 3)

Start or Sit

(Sunday’s Games)

Javorius Allen (start) Just like last week, Buck Allen is a start for Week 3 against the Jaguars. He may not do too much treading on the ground, but his pass catching skills will help his value this week. Allen is expected to pick up the load if running back Terrance West is limited or slowed.

Tyrod Taylor (sit) The Bills quarterback has an awful matchup this week facing the Broncos No Fly Zone defense. The Denver defense hasn’t been exactly seal tight, but they seen some pretty good skill position players at the receiver spot (like Dez Bryant and Keenan Allen), something Taylor is lacking. Sit the Bills quarterback.

Kelvin Benjamin (start) The Saints are in town and that means lots of yards all around. The Saints have allowed an avalanche of yards passing and rushing in their first two games. Time for Benjamin owners to reap the rewards of this matchup. Start the Panthers wide out.

Jordan Howard (sit) The Bears starting running back is off to a slow start this season and things may not get any better on Sunday. Howard will line up against the Steelers 8th ranked run defense that allow just 3.3 yards per tote. Sit him.

Ameer Abdullah (start) In what should be a matchup filled with a lot of points on both sides, I really like Abdullah to see a fair amount of carries and overall touches in this matchup. The Falcons allow 5.4 yards per carry, start Abdullah.

Jack Doyle (start) The Colts tight end is the No.13 fantasy TE currently. With a matchup against the Browns defense that’s allowed the most receptions and 3rd most receiving yards to opposing tight ends, expect Doyle to improve his ranking.

Jacquizz Rodgers (sit) The Vikings defense allows the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and overall they are ranked 11th against the run allowing just 3.1 yards per carry. I don’t like Rodgers in this matchup, sit him.

Mike Gillislee (start) The Patriots running back played more of a featured role last week with 18 carries and a score. The Texans will be tested in the air by quarterback Tom Brady and his bunch, which should open up a few running lanes for Gillislee. He’s sure to get one of those easy scores as well.

Jermaine Kearse (start) The Jets receiver has been busy through two weeks, ranked as the No.7 fantasy WR. Kearse has been targeted 14 times in two games and figures to see a steady diet of targets on Sunday against the Fins; a defense that’s allowed a 73% efficiency rate for opposing receivers.

Brandon Marshall (sit) The Giants number 3 receiver has been non-existent through two weeks and shouldn’t be trusted at this point. Marshall has caught just two passes and looks completely out of sync with quarterback Eli Manning right now. Sit him.

Derrick Henry (start) Let me start with, sit DeMarco Murray. The writing's on the wall for this one anyway. Even if Murray is active, he is likely to play second fiddle. Henry ran like a beast last week totaling 92 yards on the ground and he should get the Lionshare Sunday against the Seahawks 23rd ranked run defense that allows 5.2 yards per carry.

Jeremy Hill (sit) The team axed their Offensive Coordinator and head Coach Marvin Lewis has to be feeling the heat. Expect a lot of changes, including the usage of or lack of usage for running back Jeremy Hill. There are whispers this week we could see more of the rookie running back Joe Mixon. Hill’s a risky play, pass on him this week.

Hunter Henry (start) The Chargers tight end finally got some work in week 2 and turned in a nice stat line of 7/80/0. Henry caught all seven of his targets last week and could be just as busy Sunday against a Chiefs defense that’s allowed the 6th most receiving yards against opposing tight ends. Start Henry.

Samaje Perine (start) Starter Rob Kelley has been ruled out, so the rookie will get the nod. Start him. The Raiders are ranked 19th versus the run, allowing 4.8 yards per carry. Perine should get plenty of run in the backfield Sunday night.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 14th 2017

Thursday Edition

My Thursday Night Takes

The Houston Texans will travel to Cincinnati tonight in our Weekly Thursday Night Matchup, and unfortunately for those fans that enjoy lots of points this affair has the makings of an ugly matchup and not a lot of points. That being said, there’s still going to be some fantasy relevance, whether you play or avoid certain play.

Here are some of my Thursday night takes for fantasy owners;

The Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is expected to start. Its unlikely fantasy owners even drafted Watson this season, except for maybe Dynasty leagues, but his matchup this week has the potential of being a train wreck. He’s only played quarterback for a half in the NFL and he’s gets his first start on the road and a short week; nuff said.

Although his quarterback may struggle tremendously tonight, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is almost assured to see a plethora of targets. Even with 16 targets in week one Hopkins was not able to generate much of a big game, but his 4th quarter score was able to salvage the day. Fantasy owners may be able to count on the same happening here tonight, especially if the Bengals get up big.

One area of success the Texans offense may be able to rely on tonight, is the running game led by running back Lamar Miller. The Bengals defense did not struggle too poorly in week one allowing 157 yards on the ground; they held Ravens ball carriers to less than 4 yards per carry on 42 attempts. This one could be close throughout providing Miller plenty of opportunity to accumulate the carries; Miller’s got a good shot at 20 or so carries and 100 yards.

Perhaps the favorite play tonight will be the Bengals Defense. The team is coming off an embarrassing week one loss and with a home game tonight and the prospects of facing a rookie quarterback the thinking could be someone ring the dinner bell. Bengals D should be a DFS streaming favorite this week.

And his name is Dalton; quote from the movie Roadhouse. Unfortunately quarterback Andy Dalton is not our hero, as was displayed in week one. Dalton has a tendency to be like that, cold and hot, so tonight at home could be quite the opposite from last Sunday. I’m not gambling any farms away on this, Dalton should be decent against the Texans, but hardly worth starting.

Fortunately for wide receiver AJ Green, a good game for Dalton only means good things for Green. In week one AJ was targeted 10 times finishing 5/74, he’s going to be featured heavily once again. The Texans do have good corners so owners should not expect a huge game; more in the line with week one numbers, but maybe add a score.

I’m not going to bank on a bounce back game for tight end Tyler Eifert who was targeted just once in week one. He’ll be a part of the passing game plan, but may only put up modest numbers. I, however think he gets a couple of looks in the red-zone tonight and may be able to cash one in. He’s a tough play, especially in DFS.

The area of confusion fantasy owners may have trouble sorting through for tonight’s matchup is the Bengals backfield; running backs Jeremy Hill, Giovanni Bernard, and (rookie) Joe Mixon. There’s no easy read here where the team might commit, but of the three Giovanni looked like the best in week one. Hill and Mixon will get looks on the ground, but if you have to play any of the three I am leaning with Bernard because of his pass catching prowess.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega