FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIX

November 24th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

Over his last three games the Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (fantasy WR2) is averaging 13 targets per game. During this span Allen has recorded 29 receptions for 368 yards receiving and three touchdowns. He’s pretty much matchup proof and a must-start WR-1.

During Weeks 9 thru 11, the Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (fantasy WR14) has registered 20 receptions (on 35 targets) for 319 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns. Dell has been special the past three weeks and should be locked in as a safe WR2.

The Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (fantasy WR23) has scored a touchdown reception in five straight games. During this stretch he’s collected 24 receptions (on 31 targets) for 270 yards receiving and five of his season total 8 touchdowns. Sutton has been producing on the level of a fantasy WR-2 and should be considered such going forward.

Over his last three games, the Bills rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid (fantasy TE8) has caught 16 passes for 233 yards receiving and a score. The Bills rookie has been solid this season and become a reliable TE-1 going forward.

 The Vikings tight end TJ Hockenson (fantasy TE2) has caught 22 passes (on 34 targets) for 258 yards receiving and a touchdown over his last three games. The Vikings tight end is locked in as a TE-1.

With his touchdown grab on Thanksgiving Day, the Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta (fantasy TE4) raised his season total to 5. LaPorta has blossomed into a solid TE-1 and a must-start every week.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF SOMETHING WORTH NOTING (WK10)

November 13th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Monday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football: Something Worth Noting

(Week 10 Takeaways)

The Giants offense is bad.

Not only are the G-men the lowest scoring team in the league, but they also have the fewest passing yards per game and only the Jets have fewer passing touchdowns. The Giants continue to set new lows and other than running back Saquon Barkley (fantasy RB24), no other G-man is in the top 100 of fantasy.

The Lions offense is fantasy gold.

Not only is Goff playing his way into a fantasy starter for the back stretch of the season, the offense has at least four other fantasy starters in Amon-Ra St.Brown (fantasy WR6), Jahmyr Gibbs (fantasy RB8), David Montgomery (fantasy RB9), and Sam LaPorta (fantasy TE4).

Other notable takeaways from Week 10.

The Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (fantasy QB4) has averaged 360.7 yards passing while completing 73% of his passes with 11 touchdowns over his last three games.

The Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (fantasy QB9) has thrown 17 touchdowns this season, including 8 in his last three games.

The Lions running back David Montgomery (fantasy RB9) who has 501 yards rushing, has rushed for over 100 yards in a game three times this season.

The Lions rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs (fantasy RB8) has cashed in with 4 rushing touchdowns this season to go along with his 476 yards rushing and 200 receiving yards.

With his 11 catches on Sunday, the Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (fantasy WR2) now leads the NFL with 73 receptions this season through 9 games.

The Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (fantasy WR4) has been on a tear of late, totaling  41 receptions for 617 yards receiving with three touchdowns over his last four games.

With his 11 grabs on Sunday, the Vikings tight end TJ Hockenson (fantasy TE2) has hauled in 71 passes this season to lead all tight ends.

The 49ers tight end George Kittle (fantasy TE4) has totaled 35 receptions for 559 yards receiving and averaged 16 yards per reception this season.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY HEROES WEEK 3

September 25th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Monday Afternoon Edition

NFL Sunday Week 3:

Sunday’s Heroes

What a wild weekend NFL Sunday week 3 was. 70 points scored in a single game, by one team. Three players on the same team with over 30 fantasy points, and two running backs from the same team scoring four touchdowns each. It was a day filled with great performances by some great players.

These were the NFL Week 3 Sunday Heroes.

QB, Justin Herbert (Chargers) - The Chargers signal caller was impressive on the road, leading the Bolts to a big and much needed week 3 win. Herbert was spectacular, completing 40 of 47 passes (85.1% completion) for 405 yards passing with 3 touchdowns. He finished the day as the fantasy QB1.

RB, De’Von Achane (Dolphins) - It was a “Welcome to the NFL” and breakout game for the Dolphins rookie running back as he ran rampant all over the Broncos defense. The Rook was Mister Big play all afternoon with impressive runs and scoring three times, including a scintillating display of speed on a 67-yard rushing scamper to the house. On the day, Achane rushed for 203 yards on 18 carries (11.3 yards per carry), adding 4 receptions and 30 yards receiving. He finished the day as the fantasy RB1.

WR, Keenan Allen (Chargers) - It only makes sense with the big day that Herbert turned in this afternoon, that Keenan would factor big. The Chargers wide receiver was ridiculous on Sunday, not only setting career highs with receptions (18) and yards (215) in a single game, but he also threw his first NFL touchdown pass to fellow teammate wide receiver Mike Williams. Allen was the fantasy WR1 for week 3.

TE, Sam LaPorta (Lions) - The Lions rookie tight end was huge on Sunday contributing big in the passing game and the team’s win at home. LaPorta started quickly in this one and was targeted often throughout. The rookie finished the day with 8 grabs, for 84 yards, including a 45-yard touchdown reception on 11 targets.

IDP, Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - The Ravens safety was special on Sunday in a losing cause against the Colts. Hamilton turned in stellar performance recording 7 solo tackles, two tackles for a loss, and three 3 sacks. The Ravens defensive back also added three QB hits, a pass defense, and a forced fumble for good measure. An outstanding week 3 performance on Sunday.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY'S HEROES WEEK 2

September 18th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Monday Evening Edition

NFL Sunday Week 2:

Sunday’s Heroes

A big day of production on Sunday for these fantasy heroes and studs. If you had any of these performers in your lineup this week, you are likely in a good spot to secure a week two win. But it is fantasy football, so there are no guarantee.

QB, Daniel Jones (Giants) - The Giants quarterback Daniel Jones used his legs as well as his arm to dig his team out of a 21 point hole in week 2. Down 28-7 in the 3rd quarter, Jones went to work. Jones passed for 321 yards on the day, completing 26 of 37 passes (70.3), tossing two scores and rushing for a third, leading the Giants all the way back for the win. Jones finished the day as the No.1 fantasy QB.

RB, Brian Robinson (Commanders) - Robinson played a big role in his teams come-from-behind win on Sunday. Trailing by 18 points late in the 1st half, Robinson and company jumped into high gear. Robinson led the way on the ground rushing for 87 yards on 18 carries, with two rushing touchdowns, and a critical 2-point conversion. He would also contribute in the passing game with a couple of grabs for 42 yards receiving. The Commanders ball carrier was the RB1 fantasy running back on Sunday.

WR, Keenan Allen (Chargers) - The Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen was targeted often in week 2 (10 times) and produced big numbers. Allen pulled in 8 balls for 111 yards receiving and two touchdown receptions to pace the Chargers receiving game. Allen finished the day as the No.1 fantasy wide receiver.

TE, Hunter Henry (Patriots) - The Patriots tight end was once again big in the pass game on Sunday night. Henry was targeted six times and caught six passes for 52 yards and his second receiving touchdown for the season. Henry finished as the top fantasy tight end on Sunday and after two weeks he is currently the number two fantasy tight end overall through two weeks.

IDP, Micah Parsons (Cowboys) - The Cowboys young linebacker was special on Sunday, causing chaos and wrecking havoc in the Jets backfield. Parsons collected 4 solo tackles, including three tackles for a loss, two sacks, 4 quarterback hits, one pass defense, one forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. He finished as the number one fantasy IDP player on Sunday.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Evening Edition
October 4th 2019

Friday Fantasy Fixx

Week 5 Lineup Decisions

Running Back Trends
Over the past two weeks, here are the top 10 most used running backs;

1. Christian McCaffrey, CAR: 64 touches (51 carries/13 receptions)
2. Le’Veon Bell, NYJ: 53 touches (39/14)*
3. Leonard Fournette, JAX: 52 touches (44/8)
4. Nick Chubb, CLE: 50 touches (43/7)
5. Kerryon Johnson, DET: 49 touches (46/3)
6. Derrick Henry, TEN: 46 touches (44/2)
7. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL: 45 touches (37/8)
8. Alvin Kamara, NO: 45 touches (33/12)
9. David Montgomery, CHI: 40 touches (34/6)
10. Dalvin Cook, MIN: 40 touches (30/10)

DNP Week 4*

Targets to Target
Over the past two weeks, these are the top 10 targeted wide receivers;

1. Mike Evans, TB - 22 targets
2. Keenan Allen, LAC - 22 targets
3. Cole Beasley, BUF - 22 targets
4. Davante Adams, GB - 19 targets*
5. Jarvis Landry, CLE - 19 targets
6. Preston Williams, MIA - 19 targets
7. Chris Godwin, TB - 18 targets
8. Sterling Shepard, NYG - 18 targets
9. Josh Gordon, NE - 18 targets
10. Mohamed Sanu, ATL - 18 targets

Out for Week 5*

PPR Specials
Over the past two weeks, these are the top 10 targeted running backs;

1. David Johnson, ARI - 20 targets
2. Christian McCaffrey, CAR - 14 targets
3. Le’Veon Bell, NYJ - 14 targets*
4. James White, NE - 14 targets
5. Alvin Kamara, NO - 13 targets
6. Dalvin Cook, MIN - 13 targets
7. Devonta Freeman, ATL - 13 targets
8. Austin Ekeler, LAC - 12 targets
9. Saquan Barkley, NYG - 12 targets*
10. James Conner, PIT: 12 targets

DNP Week 4*

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Evening Edition

September 7th, 2019

Week One: Fantasy Five

This is my first Fantasy Five entry for the season; these are my five predictions for Week One. There are obvious players you drafted you will be starting regardless of the matchup, so these are bubble players that may or may not be in your line-up on Sunday! Here are my Stud, Dud, Boom, Bust, and Sleeper for tomorrow.

Stud - WR, Mike Williams

There’s not a large sample size to evaluate here, so this is more of a gut call for me. Williams is in his third season now and ready for a breakout. The Chargers will meet the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, but this is a home matchup, so I like the homedawgs to have success on offense tomorrow. The Colts were the best last season against opposing receivers allowing the fewest fantasy points, so why do I like Williams. Last season in his last four games, Williams saw at least six targets in three of his last four games. With the Colts defense keying on the other Chargers receiver Keenan Allen (WR11 according to FFC), and with his 6’4” frame I like Williams to find the end-zone on Sunday. He’ll finish much better than his WR26, ADP 61.8 (according to FFC).

Dud - QB, Matt Ryan

The Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was coming off drafts boards with an ADP of 68.2 (FFC), good enough for the QB5 spot. That high in drafts, he’s a QB1 in all redraft leagues, but fantasy owners will need to keep their expectations in check. Ryan and the Falcons open on the road and face the Minnesota Vikings, the league’s 3rd ranked pass defense (allowing fewer than 200 yards passing per game) from a year ago. The Vikings also allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. While many project a big year for Matty-Ice, he may not get off to the high-flying start many will be hoping for. With the weapons Ryan has, I am predicting a decent outing, but his numbers may fall outside the top 12 for the week.

Boom - RB, Kerryon Johnson

The Lions are set to meet the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday and running back Kerryon Johnson is set to have a huge Sunday. The Cardinals defense was bad last season against opposing running backs allowing the most fantasy points, over 150 yards on the ground, and 20 rushing touchdowns (to running backs); all led the league in 2018. Johnson should some flashes last season when healthy and given the chance. Coming off fantasy drafts boards as the RB14, I think he’s a shoo-in to be a Top-10 on Sunday. He’s healthy and primed to be a workhorse in the Lions backfield this season; at least in Week one he should take full advantage of the opportunity.

Bust - TE, David Njoku

This is hardly a news breaker, but the Browns tight end is going to be lower in the pecking order when it comes to Targets, likely behind OBJ (Odell Beckham Jr), Jarvis Landry, and (maybe even) Nick Chubb. He’s a talented pass catcher with a lot of skills, but he’ll have a difficult matchup this week against the Titans defense that allowed the 5th fewest points to opposing tight ends in 2018. Njoku finished the 2018 season as the TE9, the same spot he’s being drafted in fantasy leagues at ADP 81.1 (FFC). In 2018, in his final 8 games, Njoku had just two games with more than 5 targets, and his 7 targets in Week 17 were the most he saw during that stretch. With the arrival of OBJ, the target shares he enjoyed last season may not be available. Njoku may give owners fantasy TE9 numbers over the course of the season, but at times it could be feast or famine; Week one looks like a potential famine.

Sleeper - QB, Kirk Cousins

Cousins and the Vikings open up at home and with the return of a healthy running back Dalvin Cook, the offense looks primed for 2019. Cousins has been a steady fantasy QB1, over the past several seasons and with a full complement of weapons this Sunday against the Falcons, I like his prospects for a big game. The Falcons defense allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season along with 33 passing touchdowns, 4th most allowed in the league. The Falcons are healthy this season and should be improved, but Cousins was the QB18 in fantasy drafts at ADP 130.8 (FFC); he looks like a lock to finish significantly higher this week than QB18.

Week One: Injury Notes

Notable

• TE Jordan Reed (concussion) is out, fade all Redskins TEs
• WR Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday, check status.
• WR Robby Anderson (calf) is questionable for Week 1, look at other options.
• WR Alshon Jeffery (biceps) expected to play Sunday, he’s a safe flex or WR3.
• WR Marquise Lee (knee) removed from injury report, a possible week one sleeper.
• WR Antonio Brown lands in New England; he’s out for Week 1

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 2nd 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 13 Favorite Plays

Kickoff Sunday for Week 13 is just over 12 hours away and I am still shuffling many of my lineups, as this is a huge weekend with a lot on the line. In several of my leagues, a win this week will go a long way (post-season baby). These aren’t necessarily players I have on my rosters, but these are players that I like in tomorrow’s matchups;

CJ Anderson/Devontae Booker; the boys in Bronco’s backfield should be busy tomorrow in a road matchup against the Dolphins. The run game will be the priority, even in a timeshare, these two should get plenty of work.

Adrian Peterson; I can’t imagine the Cardinals not leaning heavy on All-day in the home matchup with the Rams tomorrow. It should be a busy day for Adrian against the Rams 27th ranked run defense.

Keenan Allen; The Chargers receiver leads the team with 67 receptions and 97 yards. He has been big at times this season and tomorrow could be another one of those games. Allen has 23 receptions for 331 yards and 3 scores; he’s on fire and should continue the trend.

Mike Evans; The Buccaneers receiver has slid down the fantasy tree some this season, currently at the No.19 fantasy WR in PPR. Evans has yet to surpass the 100-yard receiving barrier this season, but with 22 targets in the past two weeks and an easy matchup this Sunday and big game looms.

Jared Cook; the Raiders tight end has a juicy matchup and he’s in a few of my lineups tomorrow. Fantasy owners can expect a strong game from Cook with starters Crabtree and Cooper out for Sunday.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 29th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Gametime

Week 8 has begun with two games in the books. I am just running down, my thoughts for Sunday morning, sprinkling a little bit of this and that for fantasy consideration. I don't have a crystal ball or hot-line to Matt Berry for info, so tread with caution;

Stud of the Week

I am all-in with Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen. The great thing here is the matchup against the Patriots and the fact the quarterback Philip Rivers has plenty of other options that should keep the defense honest. Allen has been a target monster at times this season, today could be another double-digit look and big production.

Dud of the Week

I am staying away for Niners running back Carlos Hyde. This is an ugly matchup for the Niners, over-matched on the defensive side facing the Eagles offense and likely to be overwhelmed this week on the offense side matching up against the league's number one rushing defense.

DFS favorites today

Joe Mixon; I like the rookie running back's matchup today. Mixon has been getting the bulk of the workload in the backfield and with today's matchup against the Colts, owners should see significant production in what I predict to be a breakout performance.

Kelvin Benjamin; the Panthers and quarterback Cam Newton look to rebound from the ambush at Soldier Field a week ago. Benjamin is going to be a primary target and should get a couple of scoring opportunities today. I like him a lot against the Bucs today.

Diamonds in the Rough

Mack Hollins; the explosive Eagles rookie receiver had one catch last week, but it was a big one; a 64 yard touchdown strike. A risky play in redraft leagues yes (maybe a flier in big DFS tournaments), but I like his chances today to get behind the Niners secondary for another big score.

Marlon Mack; the Colts rookie running back has been trending in the right direction with his snap count. He's a preferred option in the pass game and could potentially see significant play today in a game where the Colts could be playing catch-up most of the way.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 28th 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Week 8 WR Rankings

Coming off a huge Week 7 performance against the Chiefs, I like Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper on the road this week against the Bills. With Marshawn Lynch sidelined, the Raiders may not feature the run game and rely more on the pass. I also believe the Bills will be tough on the road and force the Raiders to be more one dimension. Cooper played well last week and could continue that momentum this week.

At No.19, I have the Eagles wide receiver Nelson Agholor. It’s a decent matchup for the Eagles receiver this week against the Niners, who have allowed an average of 20-plus fantasy points versus opposing receivers. Agholor is tied for 2nd this season with 5 receiving touchdowns, so he’ll be threat to score again on Sunday.

The Redskins wide receiver Josh Doctson enters the Top-30 this week. He’s been quiet most of the season, but lately he’s been turning heads. His number the past two weeks have been modest, 4 catches, for 50 yards and a touchdown. He’ll be matched up against a Cowboys defense that has allowed 8 touchdowns to opposing receivers; this could be his breakout week.

WR Rankings

1. Antonio Brown

2. AJ Green

3. Julio Jones

4. Keenan Allen

5. Mike Evans

6. Michael Thomas

7. Dez Bryant

8. Doug Baldwin

9. Brandin Cooks

10. Amari Cooper

11. DeAndre Hopkins

12. Kelvin Benjamin

13. Adam Thielen

14. Chris Hogan

15. Alshon Jeffery

16. Michael Crabtree

17. Pierre Garcon

18. TY Hilton

19. Nelson Agholor

20. Stefon Diggs

21. Devin Funchess

22. Tyreek Hill

23. Demaryius Thomas

24. Mohamed Sanu

25. DeSean Jackson

26. Marvin Jones Jr

27. Ted Ginn Jr

28. Will Fuller

29. Jermaine Kearse

30. Josh Doctson

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 28th 2017

Saturday Afternoon Edition

My Perfect Lineup Week 8

(NFL.com)

Just a quick week 7 review, Brees was my quarterback last week and he finished No.10, my running backs were McCoy and Freeman, both finished No.2 and No.19 respectively; not bad, but certainly not great. My receivers were Julio and Dez, No.4 and No.9 a vast improvement, and Jimmy Graham (No.6 fantasy TE) wasn’t far off.

For a perfect lineup (standard scoring), a bit off the pace no doubt, but not a bad DFS play (if the salaries work). My Kicker and D/ST were both decent, finishing 7th for Week 7. Final results for week 7, probably not too bad, but we are certainly looking for more from my Week 8 picks;

QB-Carson Wentz; the Eagles quarterback has been on fire of late and with a golden matchup with the Niners at home, he has to be this week’s favorite at QB. Wentz is currently the No.2 fantasy QB with 17 touchdowns and 260 yards passing per game.

RB-Le’Veon Bell; the Steelers running back has been the focal point of the offense all season and that’s not changing this week. Bell is averaging nearly 29 touches per game and the Lions

RB-Jordan Howard; the Bears running back has been running like thunder through opposing defenses this season with 560 rushing yards (ranks 5th in the league). He’s only the No.14 fantasy RB (in PPR), but I feel good about his matchup against the Saints this week. Remember, last week the Saints allowed 131 yards rushing to Packers running back Aaron Jones.

WR-AJ Green; the Bengals passing game starts and finishes with Green. He’s the No.6 fantasy WR (in PPR) this season and looks to improve his ranking this week against the Colts. Colts allow the 5th most fantasy points to opposing receivers and the 6th most over the past 4 weeks; looking good for AJ on Sunday.

WR-Keenan Allen; the Chargers receiver is one of the most targeted receivers in the league with 68 this season (3rd most). The Patriots have played well this season, but they will have all they can handle trying to cover Allen and the rest of the Chargers receivers. Allen is the go-to, so I expect to see him post numbers on Sunday.

TE-Rob Gronkowski; Gronk has been quiet of late and regardless of the matchup, he’s always has a chance to blow up. I am just taking a shot here and playing the odds. Gronk is still the No.2 fantasy TE this season, but has only scored in double-digit fantasy points in 3 of 6 games and last week he only posted 8.10 fantasy points (in PPR).

PK-Jake Elliott; let’s face it the Eagles are going to score a lot on Sunday against the Niners. I like Elliott’s chances to hit a couple of chip shots and posting double digit points on Sunday.

D/ST-Bengals defense; just playing the numbers with this matchup. The Bengals have a sound defense and they are at home this week. The Bengals will matchup against a Colts offense that ranks 28th in the league in Total Offense and they in turn are the No.2 defense this season. Something’s gotta give, so rolling with Cincy.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega