Saturday Late Evening Edition
September 7th, 2019
Week One: Fantasy Five
This is my first Fantasy Five entry for the season; these are my
five predictions for Week One. There are obvious players you drafted you will
be starting regardless of the matchup, so these are bubble players that may or
may not be in your line-up on Sunday! Here are my Stud, Dud, Boom, Bust, and
Sleeper for tomorrow.
Stud - WR, Mike Williams
There’s not a large sample size to evaluate here, so this is more
of a gut call for me. Williams is in his third season now and ready for a
breakout. The Chargers will meet the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, but this is
a home matchup, so I like the homedawgs to have success on offense tomorrow.
The Colts were the best last season against opposing receivers allowing the
fewest fantasy points, so why do I like Williams. Last season in his last four
games, Williams saw at least six targets in three of his last four games. With
the Colts defense keying on the other Chargers receiver Keenan Allen (WR11
according to FFC), and with his 6’4” frame I like Williams to find the end-zone
on Sunday. He’ll finish much better than his WR26, ADP 61.8 (according to FFC).
Dud - QB, Matt Ryan
The Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was coming off drafts boards
with an ADP of 68.2 (FFC), good enough for the QB5 spot. That high in drafts,
he’s a QB1 in all redraft leagues, but fantasy owners will need to keep their
expectations in check. Ryan and the Falcons open on the road and face the
Minnesota Vikings, the league’s 3rd ranked pass defense (allowing fewer than
200 yards passing per game) from a year ago. The Vikings also allowed the 3rd
fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. While many project a big year
for Matty-Ice, he may not get off to the high-flying start many will be hoping
for. With the weapons Ryan has, I am predicting a decent outing, but his
numbers may fall outside the top 12 for the week.
Boom - RB, Kerryon Johnson
The Lions are set to meet the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday and
running back Kerryon Johnson is set to have a huge Sunday. The Cardinals
defense was bad last season against opposing running backs allowing the most
fantasy points, over 150 yards on the ground, and 20 rushing touchdowns (to
running backs); all led the league in 2018. Johnson should some flashes last
season when healthy and given the chance. Coming off fantasy drafts boards as
the RB14, I think he’s a shoo-in to be a Top-10 on Sunday. He’s healthy and
primed to be a workhorse in the Lions backfield this season; at least in Week
one he should take full advantage of the opportunity.
Bust - TE, David Njoku
This is hardly a news breaker, but the Browns tight end is going
to be lower in the pecking order when it comes to Targets, likely behind OBJ
(Odell Beckham Jr), Jarvis Landry, and (maybe even) Nick Chubb. He’s a talented
pass catcher with a lot of skills, but he’ll have a difficult matchup this week
against the Titans defense that allowed the 5th fewest points to opposing tight
ends in 2018. Njoku finished the 2018 season as the TE9, the same spot he’s
being drafted in fantasy leagues at ADP 81.1 (FFC). In 2018, in his final 8
games, Njoku had just two games with more than 5 targets, and his 7 targets in
Week 17 were the most he saw during that stretch. With the arrival of OBJ, the
target shares he enjoyed last season may not be available. Njoku may give
owners fantasy TE9 numbers over the course of the season, but at times it could
be feast or famine; Week one looks like a potential famine.
Sleeper - QB, Kirk Cousins
Cousins and the Vikings open up at home and with the return of a
healthy running back Dalvin Cook, the offense looks primed for 2019. Cousins
has been a steady fantasy QB1, over the past several seasons and with a full
complement of weapons this Sunday against the Falcons, I like his prospects for
a big game. The Falcons defense allowed the most fantasy points to opposing
quarterbacks last season along with 33 passing touchdowns, 4th most allowed in
the league. The Falcons are healthy this season and should be improved, but
Cousins was the QB18 in fantasy drafts at ADP 130.8 (FFC); he looks like a lock
to finish significantly higher this week than QB18.
Week One: Injury Notes
Notable
- TE Jordan Reed (concussion) is out, fade all Redskins TEs
- WR Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday, check status.
- WR Robby Anderson (calf) is questionable for Week 1, look at other options.
- WR Alshon Jeffery (biceps) expected to play Sunday, he’s a safe flex or WR3.
- WR Marquise Lee (knee) removed from injury report, a possible week one sleeper.
- WR Antonio Brown lands in New England; he’s out for Week 1
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
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