FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY FANTASY REPORT

January 15th, 2011 Saturday

The Saturday Fantasy Report

The Divisional Round

Jay Cutler Could Have a Quiet Afternoon
…Sunday is expected to be cold and perfect football weather to grind the ball and that should suit all of the Chicago Bears just fine; just maybe not a few fantasy owners looking for some production from Jay Cutler.

The Bears have been playing very well lately and a big reason has been a solid running game and more balanced offense. Sunday’s matchup with the Seahawks could be all about the Bears playing championship style football; great defense and a solid run game. Cutler is only averaging 192 yards passing and 30 passes per game in his last three starts.

With some breeze and snow on Sunday Cutler could still have success in the air, but don’t look for him to put the ball up often (unless the Bears are behind)
(My thoughts; 20 of 28 passing, 185 yards passing, one touchdown)


Marshawn Lynch Could Hit A Wall On Sunday
...the Bears boast the leagues number two run defense and on Sunday against “the Beast” (Marshawn Lynch) they will have a chance to prove it. Last week against the Saints Lynch was able to run rough-shot through the defense, but that could be very different on Sunday against da Bears.

The Monsters of the Midway have a lot of speed and athleticism in the middle and could make it very difficult for Lynch to find any space. In their first meeting this season the Seahawks running back was only able to muster 44 yards on 17 carries; he did however find the end-zone once.

After his impressive performance last week, there’s no question Lynch will anchor the ground game, but if he stalls against the Urlacher and company back up running back Justin Forsett could steal some action.
(My thoughts; 16 carries, 55 yards, no touchdowns)

Mike Williams Could Be Big On Sunday
...even if there is snow or the wind gusts the Seahawks are going to have to find a way to throw the ball against the Bears. It’s no secret that most teams find it difficult to move the ball on the ground against Chicago and on Sunday the Seahawks will probably learn that painful fact. If the snow and Bears defense does ground Seattle’s run game, Matt Hasselbeck is going to have to get the ball to his big receiver Mike Williams.

Williams is a huge target and effective receiver in the pass game for Seattle and last time around against these same Bears, he and his quarterback had great success. In week six Williams grabbed 10 passes for 123 yards to lead all receivers in the game.

There’s no question Williams has good hands and because of his tremendous size should have a distinct advantage on Sunday against the Bears 20th ranked pass defense. The only question will be can Hasselbeck get him the ball.
(My thoughts; 8 catches, 105 yards receiving, one touchdowns)

Just my take

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY FANTASY WATCH

January 14th, 2011, Friday

Friday Fantasy Watch

James Jones: Jones Could Have a Huge Night

The Falcons will definitely be looking to roll coverage toward wide receiver Greg Jennings wherever he is on the field and even though Donald Driver looks ready to go, third year receiver James Jones could end up being the big play man for the Pack. Last week Jones dropped a sure long touchdown grab against the Eagles.

Even though Jones has struggled with drops throughout the season, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has continued to show confidence in his speedy wideout. Jones finished the regular season with 50 grabs and five touchdowns. In their only meeting this season Jones did register five catches against the Falcons; he could be a big play Saturday night.

Saturday’s projections against the Falcons.
(5 catches, 90 yards receiving, one touchdowns)

Hines Ward: The VeteranCould Be Clutch on Saturday

You won’t have to tell the Ravens to pay attention to the Steeler’s Mike Wallace. The 2nd year wideout has emerged into a big play specialist a will likely be the focus of the Raven’s secondary on Saturday. With Wallace drawing so much attention, veteran wide receiver Hines Ward could end up being the big playmaker.

In two games this season Wallace has been relatively quiet with seven catches for 100 yards (no touchdowns), and while Ward was less effective this season against the Ravens, he is still one of Big Ben’s favorite targets. In the team’s two final games this season Ward led all receivers with 14 targets. He’s lost a step or two after 13 seasons in the NFL, but he still has that veteran savvy to find the end-zone.

Saturday’s projections against the Ravens.
(6 catches, 65 yards receiving, one touchdown)

Tony Gonzales: Tony G Could Be A Hot Ticket

The Falcons have plenty of speed and the dangerous Roddy White to stretch the field and with the Packers will likely countering with Charles Woodson (on White) tight end Tony Gonzales could be a vital component in the Atlanta’s red-zone passing game.

Gonzales finished the year with 70 receptions and just 656 yards receiving, but was second on the team with six touchdowns. Against the Packers in their first matchup Tony G was busy hauling in six passes for 51 yards and a score. He could very well be looking at similar numbers Saturday night against the Packers 5th ranked pass defense that will bend (allow the short stuff) and not break (taking away White deep).

Saturday’s projections against the Packers.
(7 catches, 70 yards receiving, one touchdown)

Just my take.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

January 13th, 2011 Thursday

David’s Daily Digest

Now that the playoffs are in full swing and have entered the second round, for those of us still enjoying this fantasy season, we are really looking at some interesting matchups this weekend. With three of the four games being played outdoors, the Falcons-Packers matchup at the Georgia Dome could be the only one with any real fireworks for fantasy owners…

Fantasy Notes:

MIKE WILLIAMS LOOKING FOR A REPEAT PERFORMANCE
In their first and only meeting earlier this season the Seahawks had some success in the air against the Bears 20th ranked pass defense. One of the keys was wide receiver “big” Mike Williams who caught 10 passes for 123 yards.
My Fantasy Read:
The Seahawks will be facing a very stout and fast Bears run defense; the ground game could stall greatly on Sunday setting up a lot of passes from Hasselbeck to Williams. Williams is a big target with sure hands and could have great success against the Bears under-sized secondary; even if cornerback Charles Tillman (6’1”) matches up with Williams (6’5”) he is giving away four inches.

MATT FORTE COULD STEAL THE SHOW
The Bears know how to play hard ball in the snow and with temperatures expecting to fall on Sunday, it sounds like running back Matt Forte could be in business for lots of work. In the first matchup the Bears called 45 pass plays and just ran the ball 14 times; it doesn’t look like that will be the case this time around.
My Fantasy Read:
Forte finished the regular season strong averaging 17 carries per game and 98 yards rushing in his last three starts; he also caught 12 balls for 116 yards in his last two. For the Bears running back, cold is good; Forte could be a featured component in the Bears offensive attack on Sunday. Fantasy owners are singing, let it snow, let it snow, let is snow.

AARON RODGERS GEARING UP FOR A SATURDAY NIGHT SPECIAL
The Packers are on a roll and quarterback Aaron Rodgers is a big reason. Their last three wins have come against the Giants, Bears, and Eagles. In those games Rodgers has thrown eight touchdowns for 813 yards while completing 62 of 92 passes.
My Fantasy Read:
In their first matchup Rodgers enjoyed some success in the air completing 26 of 35 passes for 344 yards, but was only able to find the endzone just once. Rodgers has got the hot hand and has been playing extremely well; it will be tough for the Falcons 22nd ranked defense to keep him out of the end-zone this time around.

THE STEELERS GROUND GAME COULD GO M.I.A.
The Ravens defense has been playing very well against the run as of late; aside from Jamaal Charles’ 41 yard touchdown run in the first quarter, the Chiefs were only able to gain 57 yards the rest of the way. In their previous three games the Ravens run defense has been even better allowing just 73 yards and 3.08 yards per carry.
My Fantasy Read:
The Steelers have the league’s 11th ranked run offense (120.2 yard per game) but have only been able to muster 69 yards per game on the ground in two meeting with the Ravens. Big Ben (Roethlisberger) missed their first meeting, but in the second go round he threw 38 passes, completing 22 for 253 yards and a touchdown. With the elements and the Raven’s dictating a tough grudge match that will likely yield few yards on the ground this Saturday, the game is likely to fall into the hands and rely on the arm of Big Ben.

FSH NOTEBOOK: ON THE COVER

January 11th, 2011, Tuesday

On the Cover

Marshawn Lynch Goes Beast Mode

Lynch And Seahawks Stomp The Saints

Well no one was expecting this, but the Seahawks and not the Saints will be moving on to the next round of the playoffs. With quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and running back Marshawn Lynch playing head and shoulders above the rest, the Seahawks managed to outlast the Saints on Saturday in the Wild-Card weekend opener, 41-36.

Lynch was a force on the ground stomping his way to 131 yards rushing on 19 carries, while Hasselbeck was dominant in the air completing 22 of 35 passes for 272 yards and four touchdowns. Things didn’t start out quite so well for the Seahawks too, on their opening drive Hasselbeck was intercepted setting up the Saints first touchdown and putting them in a hole down 10-0.

Once things settled down, the Seahawks went to work scoring touchdowns on their next two drives and making a game of it for the Saints. The Seahawks would continue their offensive explosion led by Hasselbeck, who would throw three of his touchdowns in the first half to turn a 17-7 deficit into a 24-20 halftime lead. After turning over the ball on their first possession, the Seahawks scored on six of their next seven.

The second half was a see-saw battle between the two NFC teams and just when the Saints were looking to turn this thing around, trailing just 34-30 with 3:38 left in the game, thunder struck. Lynch took the ball from Hasselbeck and stomped his way through the Saints defense, breaking numerous tackles, and storming 67 yards to pay-dirt raising the roof at Qwest Field and slamming the door on any hopes of the Saints repeating.

The bone-jarring run crushed the Saints hopes, and sent them reeling, but being the defending Super Bowl Champions they are, they did not stop the fight. They would score once more in the last minutes of the game to add some window dressing, but this contest was decided when Lynch ran through the entire Saints defense and crossed the goal-line.

FSH NOTEBOOK: MONDAY MORNING HUDDLE

January 10th, 2011, Monday

Monday Morning Huddle
(Late Evening Edition)

If you happen to be as big a fan of football as I am then you had to enjoy this past weekend’s slate of games. I did not have a side in the Saints-Seahawks matchup, but I never expected to see the defending champs do down so soon. Even the night cap on Saturday caught me off guard, it was not much of an upset if any, but it was a surprise seeing the Jets roll into Indy and shut down Manning and the Colts. After one day of action last year’s two Super Bowl participants were gone.

Sunday brought about some eyebrow-raising as well, with both the Ravens and Packers handling their business in decisive fashion. Sure the Eagles playing at home made it close, but it was a game quarterback Michael Vick and company were pretty much scrambling all afternoon. The Aaron Rodgers led Packers came into Lincoln Field, grab control and took the lead never to look back. In Kansas City the Ravens defense needed a few plays, but once they awoke it was lights out for the Chiefs.

With the Seahawks winners over the Saints and the Packers coming out of Philly with the win, check your brackets folks, cause there will be some changes.

Top Stories

The Saturday Night Special At The Georgia Dome

For those of us still entertained with fantasy fever, this Saturday’s divisional round matchup between the Packers and Falcons promises to deliver plenty to cheer about. Remember these two teams squared off about a month and a half ago and gave fans plenty of fireworks to get excited about. This time around looks to be a lot of the same, but with the Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (28 touchdowns, 3,922 yards passing in 2010) playing so well, it’s hard to imagine the Falcons being able to limit the Green Bay offense to just 17 points. Back in week 12 against the Falcons Rodgers passed for 344 yards, but only threw one touchdown pass. In his last three starts, Rodgers is averaging 270 yards passing and has eight touchdown passes. Rodgers will still have plenty of weapons on the field, even with a dinged up Donald Driver (knee) and could be in for another big outing against the Falcons 22nd ranked pass defense.

While Rodgers figures to provide plenty of fanfare on Saturday, across the field on the other side the Falcons will be leaning heavily on their ground attack and running back Michael Turner (1,371 yards rushing in 2010). The more Turner carries the ball, the clock he eats, the less the Falcons’ secondary has to deal with Rodgers. In their first matchup the Falcons and Turner had a lot of success with 110 yards on the ground. Turner toted the rock 23 times and helped the Falcons not only win the time-of-possession battle, but the game. Turner (12 rushing touchdowns in 2010) also added a scoring run in the game and will be a strong bet to find pay-dirt once again.

Notables

There were several performances over the weekend worth noting for fantasy owners. In Baltimore wide receiver Anquan Boldin did not have a breakout game, but his five receptions were the most among the Raven’s wide receivers and one of his grabs came in the red-zone for a score. Boldin has had his up and downs this season, but could re-emerge as Flacco’s go-to receiver, especially in the red-zone.

The Packers rediscovered a ground game led by rookie running back James Starks, who set a Packer’s rookie post season record with 123 yards on the ground. Starks led all running backs over the weekend with 23 carries and looks in line to be the Packer’s featured ground gainer when the team travels to Atlanta. The Falcons (ranked 10th against the run) did a pretty good job against the run this season, but they will have their hands full with this kid on Saturday. Starks did not play in their first matchup this season.

Joe “Cool” (Flacco) was steady Freddy on Sunday once his offensive line made the necessary adjustments and allowed him time to throw. On the afternoon Flacco was dumped four times, but when he was not being hurried or hit he was completing passes (25 of 34) and throwing touchdowns (two on Sunday). Flacco passed for 265 yards on the day, often connecting with his tight end and when he didn’t have much downfield he was able to use his legs scrambling for another 26 yards on the ground. Flacco face his old nemesis the Pittsburgh Steelers in the matinee matchup on Saturday. The two teams split their two meetings this season and Flacco is 2-4 in his career against the Steelers; including 1-2 at Heinz Field

Just my thoughts.

Fantasy Spotlight

Although the Ravens offense struggled to put points on the board early they had little trouble moving the ball well against the Chiefs on Sunday. One of the biggest reasons the offense had so much success was quarterback Joe Flacco’s rediscovering his tight end Todd Heap.

The Raven’s tight end led all receivers over the weekend with 10 receptions for 108 yards receiving; both were season highs for Heap. Flacco targeted Heap early and found him often. On the day Heap was targeted 13 times and his 10 catches set a Raven’s post season record.

Heap enjoyed a very good Wild-Card weekend, but faces a stiff test next against the Steelers. In two games Heap only totaled three catches for 35 yards, including a donut in week 13 when he suffered a hamstring injury and left early. Now that he’s healthy, Heap figures to play a much bigger role in the passing game.

He’s our Fantasy Spotlight Player of the Week!

Diamonds in the Rough

WR-James Jones

Jones has explosive speed on the outside, but had an issue with focus and drops. The Falcons figure to roll their attention toward wide receiver Greg Jennings and with wide receiver Donald Driver ailing a bit and Jones could play a much bigger role Saturday night. This past weekend against the Eagles, Jones caught just one pass for nine yards, but it was good enough for a score. He also just missed on a big pass play for a long score when he dropped a sure pass that fell through his hands. Jones has too much talent and big play potential to overlook and he could be primed for a breakout game on Saturday against Atlanta.

WR-John Carlson

Did anyone remember who John Carlson was before Saturday’s breakout game against the Saints? Carlson didn’t post big yardage on Saturday in the Seahawks Wild-card round matchup with the Saints, but he pretty much made every catch count. Carlson nabbed just three passes for 17 yards, but two of those grabs were for touchdowns. The Seahawks tightend has become somewhat of a forgotten name in the fantasy world this season. He has only managed more than three catches in a game twice this season, but coming off an effort like this it could all change. Carlson was not heavily targeted, but his two scores were more than he had all season. On Sunday he’ll face a Bears defense that has struggled this season with opposing tightends; Carlson could be in for another surprising performance this weekend.

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY NIGHT GAME NOTES

January 9th, 2011, Sunday

Sunday Night Game Notes

Notable Injury News

(for fantasy owners)

In Saturday’s win over the Saints, according to the Everett Herald Seahawks wide receiver Ben Obomanu suffered a separated shoulder during action, but was able to return to the field. Obomanu finished the game with five receptions for 43 yards. Although he was able to return to the game his status for next Sunday could be in question.

The Jets wide receiver and wild-cat operator Brad Smith suffered a groin injury Saturday night against the Colts according to the Star-Ledger. Smith was able to return and finish the game, but was not much of a factor on offense or in special teams; clearly he was not 100%. His status for next Sunday against the Patriots may not be in question, but if he’s not healthy his effectiveness could be limited.

According to ESPN, the Packer’s head coach Mike McCarthy said wide receiver Donald Driver suffered a bruised knee in the team’s win over Philadelphia on Sunday. Driver led the team with five catches for 56 yards in the win. His injury does not sound serious, so he should to be okay for next Saturday’s matchup with the Falcons.

“Sunday’s Heroes”

This Weekend’s Heroes

Wildcard weekend left nothing to the imagination with plenty of fireworks in the first weekend tilt Saturday between the Saints and Seahawks; of course it was quarterback Matt Hasselbeck providing most of the sparks. The Seahawks 35 year-old signal caller was more than brilliant completing 22 of 35 passes and throwing four touchdowns against the Saints 4th ranked pass defense. Hasselbeck started out on a shaky note, throwing a pick early on this third pass of the game, but from that moment on he was pin-point and explosive on his way to 272 yards passing. The remarkable day concluded with the Seahawks and their 12th man sending the defending Super Bowl champs home early and setting up their divisional matchup with the Bears next Sunday.

Saturday night’s showcase was complete with a dramatic finish, but the story of the game was tag-team of running backs LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene (70 yards rushing). The two Jets ball carriers combined for 35 carries, over 150 yards on the ground, and lots of time off the clock. Tomlinson (4 receptions, 17 yards receiving) was the fantasy stud totaling 82 yards rushing and two scores, but it was the effectiveness of both backs that did in the Peyton Manning and the Colts. The ball control offense of New York ate up more than 15 minutes of time on their opening two possessions of the second half. The Jets kept it close throughout and shorten the game dramatically, giving their special teams a chance at the end to win it; and they did.

Sunday morning had the look and feel of a possible bruising matchup with the Chiefs defense playing well early and the Ravens offense struggling, but this AFC first round matchup was all about the Raven’s defense. Ray Lewis (three tackles, one sack, one forced fumble) and the defense needed a few plays to get warmed up, but the defense definitely came to play once they showed up. On their second drive of the game the Chiefs only needed two plays to score; the drive was 46 yards and took just 49 seconds. That would be their only score as the Ravens defense would soon dominate from that point on. The 46 yards allowed on the only scoring drive of the day for Kansas City would amount to almost one-third of their total net yards gained for the day (161 yards). The Ravens defense would bring pressure and sack Cassel three times also forcing five total turnovers for the game. It was a great win for the Ravens 10th ranked defense; next up the rubber match with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

It was what every Packer fan had been waiting for since the end of the Favre Era, the coming of age of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. After losing his first two playoff appearances, both in overtime the Cheesehead finally nabbed that elusive first post season victory. It was not the easiest of tasks taking on Michael Vick and the Eagles, but Rodgers for the most part looked composed, self-assured, and sharp as an arrow with his throws. Fantasy owners relished the performance as Rodgers connected on three pass plays for scores while completing 18 of 27 (67%) passes for 180 yards. It was a big day for the six year starter and a well deserved win. The Packers will travel to the Georgia Dome next to face the NFC’s top seed, the Atlanta Falcons.