FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID DAILY DIGEST

January 14th, 2017
Saturday morning Edition

Fantasy Five for Saturday

Back in Week 6 the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan ($8,300 DFS salary) torched the Seahawks secondary completing 27 of 42 passes for 335 yards and three touchdowns. Ryan has been brilliant throughout his 2016 campaign, passing for nearly 5,000 yards and tossing 38 touchdowns (2nd in the league). Despite the success the Seahawks defense has had against opposing quarterbacks, I believe Ryan is in for another big day on Saturday against the Seahawks.

Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones ($8,300 DFS salary)  is just a beast and in the earlier matchup this season with the Seahawks he just did his thing; 7 receptions, 139 yards, and a touchdown. The Seahawks will definitely focus on trying to stop Jones, but Falcons will have OC Kyle Shanahan on the case and ready to show the NFL teams that passed on him why they made a mistake. Expect the Falcons to move Jones around and make a concerted effort to get the ball in his hands; no fewer than 10 targets for the receiving monster today, plenty of opportunities to post safe numbers.

With the Falcons offense rolling on Saturday, my expectation is this game will take on the shape of a good old fashioned shootout. I am sure the Hawks would prefer to stay with the ground game, but with quarterback Russell Wilson ($8,200 DFS salary) under center, they won’t shy from taking it to the air. Wilson has the ability to rise and play big and that’s what I would expect from the former Badger out of Wisconsin.

The Texans-Patriots matchup has the feel of a defensive battle, rather than shootout. The Patriots are always tough at home, the Texans offense is questionable on the road in this one, and the Texans defense is one of the best in the league. I am not expecting many fireworks in this one, but I do like Patriots running back Dion Lewis ($5,400 DFS salary) to heavily involved, especially in the passing game. Lewis averaged better than 16 touches per game over the last three weeks of the season. I would expect similar numbers in this one, but look for more involvement in the short passing game from Lewis.

As I speculate, the Texans-Patriots matchup will be more about the defense and one key factor will be place-kicker Stephen Gostkowski ($4,800 DSF salary). Playing at home the Patriots defense will put a lot of pressure on quarterback Brock Osweiler and the Texans offense. Turnovers and short fields could dictate this one and Gostkowski will play big.

These are DFS plays I am leaning with today.

That’s my Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

January 11th, 2017
Wednesday Night Edition

Divisional Round DFS

Another week of fantasy football and life is good. With the Divisional matchups set, there are plenty of plays this week that I like, so let’s take a look at the core plays I will be building my (Fan Duel) DFS lineups around this week.

Let’s start with defense. Although the Texans may have a number of coaches that have been cycled through the Patriot’s coaching carousel including Bill O’Brien, at home the Patriots defense ($5,100 salary) is still going to be very tough to crack. Even as the highest salaried defense, the Patriots are a safe play this week against an offense that ranks in the bottom 10 for giving fantasy points to opposing defense. The Patriots defense has also scored in double digits in two of their last three homes games; that’s trending in the right direction.

Another trend that I like as a bargain play this week is the other Atlanta running back Tevin Coleman ($4,500 salary). Starter running back Devonta Freeman ($7,600 salary) is going to be a popular play this week, but at his current salary and 11 touchdowns this season Coleman could be a nice contrarian play.

The Cowboys defense is ranked 31st versus opposing tight ends and over the last four weeks of the season they allowed the most. This sets up Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers ($8,800 salary) and his tight end Jared Cook ($5,400 salary) as possibly a nice tandem play for this weekend. Rodgers has had the hot hand of late to say the least; in his last 8 games 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Cook missed the first matchup versus the Cowboys, but you can bet he’ll be heavily involved with the likelihood of no Jordy Nelson.

Rounding out the line-up, a low play at place kicker Nick Novak ($4,500 salary) and a nice value, but a little risky play with Seahawks wide receiver Paul Richardson ($4,700 salary) opens the door for sliding in a couple of big guns like Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones, Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown, and Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott.
On paper these might sound and look good, but that’s why they play the games. Good luck this weekend if you play.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega