FSH NOTEBOOK: WEEK 2 FF SIT'EMS

September 16th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 2

Sit’Ems

My week 2 Sits for Sunday and Monday.

QB-Russell Wilson (Broncos) - Wilson was very efficient in week 1 versus the Raiders, completing 27 of 34 passes (79.4% completion), but faced only a little pressure on the day being sacked just twice. This could be a very different story on Sunday facing the Commanders. Washington recorded three sacks in week one, two with Top-15 fastest sack times. Their defense also only allowed 3.8 yards per pass attempt, 5th best in the league in week one. Wilson and the Broncos pass game could struggle in week two.

RB-Cam Akers (Rams) - I’m not expecting much from Akers in week 2, this is in part to his lackluster production in week one (29 yards rushing on 22 carries), but mostly his matchup against a Niners defense that allowed only 37 yards rushing to opposing running backs in week one. I am avoiding Akers this week.

WR-George Pickens (Steelers) - Week one was rough treading for Pickens and the Steelers passing game with a tough matchup with the Niners. Pickens finished week one with 5 catches, but for just 36 yards. With another tough matchup in week 2 against a Browns secondary that allowed the 3rd fewest receptions to opposing receivers in week one, I am avoiding Pickens.

WR-Courtland Sutton (Broncos) - With a tough matchup on the slate for Wilson and company, Sutton may be the one receiver most affected. With the return of Jerry Jeudy this week, Sutton is likely to see some of the attention on offense shift away from his direction, in what could become a quiet week 2.

TE-Pat Freiermuth (Steelers) - Freiermuth was able to salvage his day last Sunday with a 3-yard touchdown grab. He may not be so lucky this week against a Browns defense that held the opposing tight ends to 3 catches for 17 yards. I will look elsewhere for help at the tight end spot.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WEEK 2 FF START'EMS

September 16th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football Week 2

Start'Ems

My Week Starts for Sunday and Monday.

QB-Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) - Last season in their divisional round matchup, Lawrence fell flat passing for just 217 yards with one touchdown and an interception. There’s nothing like home cooking and this Sunday the Jaguars third-year quarterback will find redemption and a big day against the defending champs. The Chiefs defense had a decent showing in week one, but Lawrence has got himself some nice weapons he’ll be showcasing on Sunday and they should lead to a big day. Start him.

RB-James Cook (Bills) - Cook dominated the snap counts (59.4%) and usage (16 touches) for the Bills backfield in week one. Although his production was a bit pedestrian (RB27) at best in week one, Cook has a favorable matchup in week 2 where the ceiling is raised. Cook faces a Raiders defense that allowed 10 receptions to opposing running backs and almost 4.5 yards per carry in week one. This sets up potentially for a very nice game for Cook, start him.

WR-Tee Higgins (Bengals) - The Bengals wideout was targeted 8 times in week one and did not post a single catch. You can almost guarantee that will never happen again and most likely what will happen is a bounce back game. Higgins has a truly special player in his teammate Ja’Marr Chase lining up on the other side of the field, who will also look to bounce back this week, so I am going to temper my expectations. I expect Higgins to grab a handful of passes, but more importantly he finds the endzone, start him.

WR-Deebo Samuel (49ers) - Last week it was Brandon Aiyuk featured in the pass game, but Deebo was still a big part and played on 86.8% of snaps (to Aiyuk’s 85.3%). Deebo (week one WR36) has scored in four of his last five meetings against the Rams, scoring five times. I believe he’s a strong bet to find pay dirt in this one, of course you are starting him.

TE-Hunter Henry (Patriots) - This take is one part due to usage and another part due to matchup. In week one Henry played on 78.8% of the offensive snaps. He was targeted six times and finished week one as the TE1. His matchup this week is against a Dolphins defense that allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Henry likely won’t have a lot of catches and yards, but he’s a good bet to reach the end zone in this one, start him.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: (DFS) THE FAVORITE FIVE

September 15th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Friday Late-Evening Edition

(DFS) The Favorite Five

(Draft Kings)

My week one picks didn’t fare too well. With Justin Herbert (QB5) and Travis Etienne Jr. (RB6), my backfield was secure, but beyond that it was lackluster. Both of my wideouts finished outside the top 20, Chris Godwin was WR40 and Mike Williams was WR50. And in an ugly week for the tight ends, Juwan Johnson finished as the TE18.

Looking ahead to Sunday, I am hoping to bounce back with some strong plays that deserve Week 2 consideration.

QB-Jared Goff ($6200) - I love this matchup for Goff and company. At home this week against a reeling Seahawks secondary that allowed 334 air yards in week 1 (ranked 30th vs pass). Goff’s showing in week one was a bit pedestrian (just one score), but he’ll have the luxury of home cooking this week and should take advantage. At his salary, I consider him a great play against the Seahawks.

RB-Travis Etienne Jr ($6900) - Again a great matchup this week for Etienne and at his salary I love this play. In week one the Jags running back finished as the No.6 fantasy running back and this week he could finish as a Top-10 once again. Etienne was in on 80% of the offensive snaps and totaled over 100 yards in week one, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. The Chiefs defense allowed better than four yards a tilt against the Lions in week one, so with his 18 carries and 5 targets in week one, I’m expecting Etienne to again find similar success. He’ll be a week 2 Stud to anchor my DFS lineups.

WR-Amon-Ra St.Brown ($7800) - I gotta tie St. Brown to Goff in this one. One of the biggest keys to the success of the Lions passing game and to Goff is Amon-Ra. In week one he was targeted 9 times (tied for 17th among WRs), a low-number considering he totaled 146 in 2022 (ranked 8th). I am expecting to see ASB heavily targeted in this one against a secondary that allowed the 2nd most receptions to opposing wide receivers in week one. ASB will be another one of my Stud anchors in my DFS lineup for week 2.

WR-Darnell Mooney ($4400) - If there ever was a value play in week 2, this has to be it. Despite the low volume passing in the Bears offense (only 13 passes to WRS - 3rd fewest in week 1), Mooney still finished as WR20. Mooney dominated the WR target shares with a 53.8% share and 18.9% overall. He converted his opportunity to 4 catches for 53 yards and a score. This Sunday Mooney faces a Bucs defense that was torched for 242 air yards by the opposing WRs. A similar line in week 2 is gold in DFS.

TE-Adam Trautman ($3000) - The Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson was highly efficient in week one and will have one of his primary weapons in Jerry Jeudy back this week. The Commanders defense will be forced to deal with Jeudy’s explosiveness which could offer a lot of room for the underneath stuff. At his salary Trautman is worth the risk, especially considering the Commanders defense allowed the 2nd most receptions to the position in week one. 

These are my favorite plays for Week 2.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

September 15th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Morning Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 2)

(Favorable Matchups)

After one week of data it doesn’t get any easier for fantasy owners to decide who to start and who to sit, but the information does help. So let’s take a look at the week 2 matchups and set our lineups for Sunday.

QB-Jared Goff (Lions) - Coming off a week 1 win over the defending champion Chiefs, Lions quarterback Jared Goff will be playing with a lot of confidence in this week 2 matchup. Goff and company will square off against a Seahawks defense that allowed 334 yards passing (3rd most) in week one. This could be a big afternoon for Goff.

RB-Bijan Robinson (Falcons) - Considering his usage in the passing game in week one, this Sunday against the Packers could be a big afternoon for the Rookie. Robinson was targeted six times in week one and will face a Packers defense that allowed 11 receptions (2nd most) last week. The Falcons rookie should have another productive Sunday.

WR-DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) - Just playing the numbers with this call. Last week Hopkins was heavily targeted and no reason it should not continue. This Sunday the Titans will face a Chargers secondary that surrendered the most receptions, yards, and touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. Fantasy owners can expect Hopkins to turn in another busy Sunday.

WR-Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) - After a quiet week one, this sets up to be a great bounce back game for Chase and the Bengals offense. In two games versus the Ravens last season Chase was targeted 25 times, so the elite wideout can be expected to be heavily involved in the passing game this week.

TE-Evan Engram (Jaguars) - The Jags tight end was a bit quiet in week one, but still finished as the No.5 fantasy tight end with 5 catches for 49 yards. This week Engram will take his shot at the Chiefs defense that surrendered 7 catches (tied for 3rd most) last week to the opposing tight end. Last postseason, the Chiefs were able to limit Engram to 31 yards receiving, but that was the pre-Ridley era. Results this Sunday should be very different.

These are not necessarily considered week 2 start’ems, as some are of course already locked in your lineups as they should be. These are rather my predictions or feelings about their respective week 2 matchups and outcomes this weekend. 

These are my week 2 favorites with some great matchups.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

September 14th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

It looks like the NFL got this one right with this Week 2 meeting between the Eagles and Vikings. The Vegas line has the over/under at 49.5, so the good news for fantasy owners is the expectation is an old fashion western shootout at the O.K Corral.

Both teams enter this matchup loaded with offensive weapons on both sides and according to Vegas we should see a lot of them. The Eagles defense ranks 29th against the pass, so expect a lot of Jefferson and Hockenson on the Vikes side. 

While the Vikes defense had much better numbers than Philly in week 1 on defense, Hurts and company may prove to be too much. Looking to Thursday night, I have some (DFS) favorites in play.

My Fantasy Five for Thursday Night Football;

1.Jalen Hurts (QB) - We’ll see some vintage Hurts in this one. He should give us a little bit of everything, passing and rushing. I would count on at least three scores, including one rushing. (DK-My Captain)

2.DeVonta Smith (WR) - The Eagles receiver is hardly a number two, but more like a 1B. Smith, like his teammate AJ Brown also registered 10 targets in week 1. He’ll be a key piece in this one and a strong DFS play.

3.TJ Hockenson (TE) - The Eagles had trouble (ranked last) with the tight end in week one and Hockenson is one of the best in fantasy and the NFL. Hockenson collected 8 passes in week one and could very easily duplicate his numbers on Thursday.

4.Justin Jefferson (WR) - The Eagles secondary struggled in week one against the Patriots. With Jefferson coming to town on Thursday night, it could be a long night for the Eagles defense. 

5.D’Andre Swift (RB) - Swift did not see a lot of usage in week 1, but with Kenneth Gainwell ruled out, he could be in line as the lead back and see plenty of work here. Swift is a risky play here, but I believe in the talent; it rises to the top. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

September 13th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Wednesday Evening Edition

The Wednesday Watercooler

Targets Equal Opportunities

In fantasy football luck plays its part, but success is all about chances. You can’t win if you don’t have the ball and your dudes can’t score fantasy points if they don’t have a chance.

Here are the weekly leaders for Receiving Targets;

Week 1

Top 5 WR

1. Tyreek Hill (15)

2. Puka Nacua (15)

3. Stefon Diggs (13)

4. DeAndre Hopkins (13)

5. Justin Jefferson (12)

Stefon Diggs displayed why he’s an elite receiver in the NFL turning in another 100-yard receiving performance with 10 receptions and a score. He will finish as a Top-5 fantasy receiver in 2023 at this pace.

Top 5 TE

1. Zach Ertz (10)

2. TJ Hockenson (9)

3. Logan Thomas (8)

4. Hayden Hurst (7)

5. Cole Kmet (7)

The overall production was a bit light, but with the10 targets on Sunday tight end Zach Ertz could easily bounce back and very soon. The Cardinals air attack may continue to stall a bit here in the early season, but as long the volume is there Ertz could be fantasy relevant soon.

Top 5 RB

1. Roschon Johnson (7)

2. Ezekiel Elliott (7)

3. Bijan Robinson (6)

4. Rhamondre Stevenson (6)

5. James Cook (6)

Running back James Cook was lead back on Monday night and dominated the Bills backfield in snaps and touches. He’s a big play waiting to happen and as long as this volume continues, he’s in line for some big games in the future.

Touches Are Fantasy Gold

Just like a receiver needs to be targeted, a running backs success leans heavily on how many times they touch (carries + catches) the rock.

Here are the weekly Touch leaders;

Week 1

Top 5 RB

1. Christian McCaffrey (25)

2. Travis Etienne Jr (23)

3. Nick Chubb (22)

4. Cam Akers (22)

5. Miles Sanders (22)

Cam Akers was ineffective on Sunday against the Seahawks only totaling 29 yards on the ground, but you can't ignore his usage. Despite the tough treading, the Rams stayed with Akers. His 22 carries ranked tied for the most in week 1 and with that kind of work, fantasy owners can expect better outputs from Akers (so long as the workload continues).

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WAIVER WIRE

September 12th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

The Waiver Wire

After one week of action, it’s time to make some changes and fix those rosters. If week one injuries impacted your championship run or have put you in an 0-1 hole, it might be time to hit the Waiver wire.

Week 2 Waiver wire options;

RB-Kenneth Gainwell (Eagles) - With Miles Sanders gone, it wasn’t D’Andre Swift, Rashad Penny (healthy scratch), or Boston Scott. It was Gainwell who dominated the action in the Eagles backfield. Gainwell earned a 62.1% snap count share and logged 18 touches to Swifts’ and Scotts’ 2 apiece. Gainwell appears to own the job at the moment and needs to be owned in all leagues.

WR-Darnell Mooney (Bears) - Despite the heavy competition at the position, Mooney was still heavily involved (83.8% snap count share). But clearly Mooney was the favorite on Sunday garnering 7 targets to DJ Moores’ (2) and Claypools’ 2. He needs to be owned.

TE-Hunter Henry (Patriots) - The Patriots tight end was on the field for 63 snaps (78.8% share) and very involved in the team's passing game. Henry was 4th on the team with 6 targets, turning in a stat line of 5 (rec)/56 (yds)/1 (Td). He finished as the No.1 fantasy tight end on Sunday. He should be a waiver wire target for week 2.

WR-Puka Nacua (Rams) - The Rams Rookie 5th round draft pick was huge on Sunday and played a big role in the passing attack. Nacua garnered a 77.8% snap count share and was targeted a team high 15 times leading to 10 receptions for 119 yards receiving to lead the Rams. A virtual unknown that will be a hot pickup off the waiver wire this week.

RB-Kyren Williams (Rams) - While Cam Akers (29 yards rushing) received more carries on Sunday, Williams (52 yards rushing) was the more effective runner of the two. The more glaring stat was the snap counts of both, Williams out paced Akers, 53-28. He’s definitely worth a grab and stash if you have the room on your bench.

A few more notables to consider, (WR) Tutu Atwell (RB) Joshua Kelley, (TE) Hayden Hurst, (RB) Justice Hill and (RB) Gus Edwards could be in the cards.

Check your leagues for availability and good luck in week 2.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WINS

September 11th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Monday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Wins!

(NFL Week 1)

The NFL season is long and this one will be no different, unless your fantasy team is in the tank early, then it's long and one to forget. There will be plenty of surprises and disappointments throughout, just as there will be some wins and whiffs with some of my fantasy predictions. 

These were some of my week one wins.

Jordan Love (QB) - The Packers looked to be in capable hands on Sunday. With the departure of Aaron Rodgers, the Packers ushered in their next era of quarterback with Jordan Love. He led the team to a season opening road win in the windy city, passing for 245 yards and throwing three touchdowns. 

Justin Herbert (QB) - Herbert was one of my strong plays for DFS and he came through with a strong performance throwing for 228 yards on 23 of 33 passing, adding a passing touchdown and a rushing score. Herbert finished Sunday tied as the No.4 fantasy quarterback.

Travis Etienne Jr (RB) - The Jaguars running back, also a DFS favorite, was solid on Sunday, finishing as the No.7 fantasy running back. Etienne rushed for 77 yards on 18 carries, caught 5 balls for 27 yards receiving, with one rushing touchdown.

The season is early and a lot more football to be played. This list will grow. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WHIFFS

September 11th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Monday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Whiffs!

(NFL Week 1)

I was down on Darnell

Darnell Mooney (WR) - The Bears receiver is still Justin Fields' go-to guy. In a low-volume passing game, Fields only attempted 13 passes to his receivers and Mooney was the recipient (7) times. I missed on this one, Mooney should be owned.

I didn't like Jimmy G.

Jimmy Garappolo (QB) - He’s still Mr.GQ Smooth and on Sunday Jimmy G showed he’s a winner. Garappolo passed for 200 yards and tossed two scores to finish as the No.14 fantasy QB on Sunday. He's a fringe QB1 in deeper leagues with some upside potential.

I was expecting a lot from him in the passing game

Antonio Gibson (RB) - The Commanders running back was a complete dud on Sunday. Gibson contributed just four touches for 19 total yards and a turnover. He played in just 25 snaps (35.2%) on Sunday.

I was not on the hype train.

Bijan Robinson (RB) - I was not on the hype-train during the preseason. I didn’t doubt this kid’s talent or ability, just wasn’t hyping him up and getting excited. I know it’s only one game, but he was impressive enough for me to say I was wrong about him - he’s pretty good.

I liked Johnson's matchup in week 1.

Juwan Johnson (TE) - The Saints tight end was a non-factor on Sunday, getting targeted just five times. Johnson finished the day with three catches for 36 yards. He’s best on fantasy owners benches for now.

These were a few of my week one misses. Hopefully I can improve my numbers as we forward into the season.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega