FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY'S HEROES WEEK 11

November 21st, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

NFL Sunday Week 11

Sunday’s Heroes

While there were many outstanding performances on Sunday Week 11, these notable players were not only productive, but their performance played a huge part in their teamm's success and ultimate victories.

Jordan Love, QB (Packers) After hearing weeks of scrutiny and criticism of his play on radio and otherwise, the Packers signal caller had the last word. Love was very good, finishing the week as the fantasy QB9, it was his highest fantasy scoring total since week 3. Love finished the week completing 67.5% of his passes, while throwing for 322 yards and two scores.

Saquon Barkley, RB (Giants) The Giants offense has not made much noise in weeks, including their running back, but on Sunday Barkley spoke loud. The Giants ball carrier was sensational, turning in the best game of the week for running backs, finishing as the fantasy RB1 for the week. Barkley carried the ball 14 times for 83 yards and caught 4 passes for another 57 yards and two touchdowns.

Calvin Ridley, WR (Jaguars) Following several weeks of being dormant, the Jaguars wide receiver finally came to life with a big performance, his best since a week 5 100-yards receiving performance. On Sunday Ridley showcased what had Jaguars fans excited in the preseason, collecting 7 passes (on 9 targets) for 103 yards receiving, and two touchdowns. Ridley was the top fantasy receiving dawg for Week 11.

Dallas Cowboys, DTS - The Cowboys defense turned in a stellar performance on road in Week 11 against the Panthers. The Cowboys recorded 7 sacks on the day, hitting the opposing quarterback 11 times, adding 2 takeaways, with a pick six on the menu. The Defense allowed just 10 points, finishing the week as the second best DST.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEEKLY WAIVER WIRE

November 14th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

The Weekly Waiver Wire

10 weeks into the season, if your playoff bubble has yet to burst, if you still have a chip and a chair, the Waiver Wire list may not be over-saturated or run deep, but there are still plenty of options offering help. With three more weeks impacted by team byes, here’s the short list of some Waiver wire help for Week 11.

Brandin Cooks (Cowboys) Owned in 49.1% of ESPN fantasy leagues, Cooks has scored 14 or more fantasy points (ppr) in 3 of his last 4 games.

Jordan Love (Packers) Owned in 44.7% of ESPN fantasy leagues, Love has not been spectacular and his fantasy scoring has tapered off a bit in recent weeks, but he has had a safe floor over his past four starts.

Odell Beckham Jr (Ravens) Owned in 42.6% of ESPN fantasy leagues, OBJ is a flier option as a flex-fill during the remaining bye. He has scored a touchdown in back-to-back contests and flashed some explosiveness in Week 10. With just 13 targets in his last three games his lack of volume makes him a risky play. 

Romeo Doubs (Packers) Owned in 39.7% of ESPN fantasy leagues, Doubs has scored in double digits fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games. Over this stretch Doubs has been targeted 22 times, catching 12 passes and scoring three touchdowns.

Joshua Dobbs (Vikings) 38.9% needs to be owned in all 2QB leagues, picked up in rest and could be a must-start the rest of the way.

Tyjae Spears (Titans) Owned in 32.6% of ESPN fantasy leagues, is doing enough work to be worth a roster spot. He is living around the flex bubble in larger (12 or more teams) fantasy leagues.

Demario Douglas (Patriots) Owned in 27.2% of ESPN fantasy leagues, Douglas has scored in double-digit fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games. It’s tough to trust the Patriots offense, but Douglas has been about the only consistent fantasy play over the past month, averaging more than 4 catches with 218 yards receiving over his last four games.

Noah Brown (Texans) Owned in 27.0% of ESPN fantasy leagues, Brown should be owned in all leagues. His quarterback (CJ Stroud) has shown he’s capable of carrying multiple receivers and Brown has been one of the hottest of late with 13 receptions for 325 yards receiving with a touchdown in the past two weeks.

Jayden Reed (Packers) Owned in 15.1% of ESPN fantasy leagues, Reed has scored in double-digit fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games. His target volume is a little on the lighter side, but 14.9 yards per reception bodes well for fantasy managers.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 7 STARTS & SITS

October 21st, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football: Week 7 Starts & Sits

The available options off the Wire or from the free agent pool may feel scarce this week with six teams (Cincinnati, Carolina, Houston, Tennessee, Dallas, and New York Jets) on byes, but there are still plenty of streaming options available to fill lineup holes. With CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, Derrick Henry, and others taking the week off, fantasy managers will have to check in every nook and turn over every stone to find some fantasy value in Week 7.

Well, that’s why I am doing here. In my search under rocks and behind opened doors, here’s what I have found for the Week 7 slate.

Week 7 Starts

The Passers

Sam Howell (Commanders) Howell has been the fantasy QB3 the past two weeks passing for 539 yards with 5 touchdowns. A Week 7 matchup against a middle of the pack Giants defense puts Howell on the streaming radar.

Jordan Love (Packers) With the Packers coming off their Week 6 bye, Love and company are on the road at Denver. Love did not look good in his last game, back in Week 5, but nothing spells get-well better than the Broncos defense. The Broncos defense has allowed a top-7 performance to opposing quarterbacks in 3 of their last 4 games. The Pack are getting healthy with Christian Watson and Aaron Jones expected to be available, Love is in the streaming mix this week.

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) Mayfield versus the Falcons this week would be more of a reach play for fantasy managers in most leagues. The Falcons have allowed 4 passing touchdowns the past two weeks and Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans is now a couple of weeks removed from his hamstring injury before the team’s bye. With a healthier Evans, these two should hook-up for a score.

The Ball Carriers

Brian Robinson Jr (Commanders) Facing the Giants defense that is allowing more than 5-yards per carry this season, including over 140 yards on the ground per game for the last four weeks, Robinson Jr figures to get plenty of work. He’ll be a mid-to-high RB2 this week.

Jerome Ford (Browns) Over the past four weeks, the Colts defense has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Browns running back Jerome Ford should find plenty of success this week. Consider him a strong RB2 this week.

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) The Patriots offense would like to keep the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands, so it’s safe to expect a heavy dose of the run game. In this one Stevenson is the preferred option in the Patriots backfield, now off the injury report. Facing the Bills defense that has been rolled the past two weeks surrendering over 250 yards on the ground and over 4 yards per carry. Stevenson figures as a back-end RB2 this week.

The Pass Catchers

Marquise Brown (Cardinals) The Seahawks secondary has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Brown has been targeted 31 times over his last three games. This week Hollywood shows up.

Wan’Dale Robinson (Giants) The Giants receiver has been seeing a steady diet of targets  the past several weeks. In his last three games he’s been targeted 20 times, including 8 in Week 6. Over the past four weeks the Commanders defense has allowed the 3rd most receiving yards to opposing receivers. This matchup sits well for Robinson, he’s a WR3/flex play this week.

Zay Flowers (Ravens) I like this kid a lot this week against the Lions. He’s the clear number one and over the past three weeks, he’s getting 7.7 targets, 4.7 receptions, 59.7 yards per game. Over their last two games the Lions defense has allowed the 4th most receptions to opposing receivers. Flowers is a borderline WR2/WR3 play this week.

Mecole Hardman (Chiefs) Having just been traded back to his old team, Hardman could be a sneaky sleeper play this week. For weeks he was comatose in New York (Jeets), but he returns to a Chiefs team that has yet to find their big play receiver this season.

The tight ends

Cade Otton (Buccaneers) The Bucs have not gotten much production from the tight end spot this season, but fantasy managers with few options might want to take a flier on Otton this week when he faces the Falcons. The Falcons defense has had some trouble this season with the tight ends, allowing the 7th most fantasy points. With fewer options this week Otton, a boom or bust candidate, could score his second touchdown of the season on Sunday.

Michael Mayer (Raiders) Mayer is coming off his most productive game this season a week ago against the Patriots. With Brian Hoyer getting the start for injured Jimmy Garappolo against the Bears this Sunday, Mayer could be in line for continued success. The Bears have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the past 4 weeks. Mayer could crack TE-1 scoring this week.

My Week 7 Sits

Russell Wilson (Broncos-QB) The Broncos play host this week and Wilson will get a taste of the Packers defense that allows the 5th fewest points to opposing quarterbacks. Wilson is coming off a poor Week 6 (Thursday night) showing and fantasy managers would be better served to steer clear.

Gus Edwards (Ravens-RB) Already in a crowded backfield that includes quarterback Lamar Jackson, the Ravens running back could struggle this week to find running room against the Lions. The Lions defense allows the 2nd fewest yards per carry and the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. 

Ram backfield - With Kyren Williams placed on IR, the Rams have added pieces and elevated players. It’s just a tough situation to predict and with the return of Cooper Kupp, head coach Sean McVay may place the ball in the hands of quarterback Matt Stafford. I’m avoiding this situation altogether.

Josh Downs (Colts-WR) Downs has been seeing steady work, but this week he draws a tough matchup against a very good Browns defense. The Browns have allowed the fewest fantasy points, receptions, and receiving yards to wide receivers this season. I am looking elsewhere this week.

Elijah Moore (Browns) Facing the Colts this week, Moore’s outlook is not good. First he’s only caught 6 passes for 39 yards the past two weeks, there’s uncertainty at the quarterback position this week (although Watson may return), and the Colts have allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers the past 4 weeks. I’m moving along here.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

September 28th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

Tonight’s matchup offers a lot of interesting perspectives, the possible return of running back Aaron Jones, the debut of wide receiver Christian Watson and the arrival of rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. Regardless of whichever you might find most intriguing, all of them will have some kind of fantasy impact in tonight’s matchup.

Aaron Jones looked dynamic and explosive in week one, but a bum hammy has had him sitting out the team’s last two games. If he’s 100% and ready to roll, he could feast in this matchup against the Lions defense (ranked 25th in passing vs RBs).

Christian Watson is slated to make his debut and if he’s good to go, he could add the explosiveness and deep threat the Packers offense is missing. With 7 passing touchdowns (ranked T3rd) this season, the addition of Watson will only give quarterback Jordan Love more options to beat a defense ranked 17th vs opposing QBs.

LaPorta has been terrific this season, currently the No.2 fantasy tight end. His 22 targets ranks second among tight ends while his 18 receptions also ranks tied for 2nd. He’ll easily be a featured target in this one and could be in for a big night.

These would be just a few of the storylines in this one and with that said, these are my favorite plays for DFS.

Thursday’s Take Five;

1. Jordan Love (QB) - I have to play the hot hand. Love has 8 total touchdowns this season, 7 pass, 1 run, tied with Tua Tagovailoa and second to Kirk Cousins 9. He gets a couple of big weapons back in Jones and Christian Watson and with the strong play of receivers Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed, I feel very strong about this play. (DK-My Captain)

2.Jahmyr Gibbs (QB) - The Lions rookie runner should be busy in the pass game out of the backfield, an area where the Packers have allowed the 3rd most receiving yards to opposing running backs. Gibbs should also handle a fair share of the ground work, especially if Montgomery sits or is less than 100%.

3. Romeo Doubs (WR) - I believe the Lions secondary numbers are a bit skewed. We’ve seen the receiving situation in Kansas City and last week the Falcons receivers were awful. The Packers don’t have the likes of Adams, but with the return of Aaron Jones and Christian Watson and the recent play of Doubs and rookie receiver Jayden Reed, the Pack should have success airing it out. Doubs is tied with Reed for the team lead in targets with 20 and is tied with the rookie tied Luke Musgrave with 11 receptions. Doubs should see plenty of work and should benefit with the presence of Watson on the field.

4. Amon-Ra St.Brown (WR) - The Lions leading receiver has been consistent all three weeks, injury or not. He’s averaging 9+ targets per game and has eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark, twice in three games. I can’t see him not delivering tonight. He should see a steady diet of targets throughout the evening and will certainly post his standard 6 for 80. And I’d say he’s due to find pay dirt in this one as well. 

5.Sam LaPorta (TE) - The Lions rookie tight end has been gold for fantasy owners through the first three weeks. He ranks second in targets (22), tied for second in receptions (18), and is the fantasy TE3. Just like St.Brown, the rookie should be a focal point in the Lion’s passing attack and could have a busy night.

A notable consideration for tonight’s matchup has to be the Packers rookie tight Musgrave. I believe the return of Jones and Watson tonight will cut into his workload in the air, but the kid should be an effective option in the red zone with his 6-foot, 6-inch frame.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WAIVER WIRE

September 26th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

The Waiver Wire

We’ve completed three weeks of action and there’s plenty of data to unsort and players to consider for adding this week. If you were impacted by the unfortunate loss of Williams (Chargers) in Los Angeles this week or have been trying to navigate without Aaron Jones or Christian Watson, it’s that time of the week again. Waiver wire time.

Week 4 Waiver wire options;

QB-CJ Stroud (Texans) - In case you haven’t paid attention, through the first three weeks of the season, the Texans rookie quarterback is fantasy QB12. He’s coming off two straight weeks inside the Top-12 and has looked good doing so. He definitely looks like a worthy streaming option and bye week filler. He’s worth the add, if you can make room.

QB-Jordan Love (Packers) - The Packers signal caller sits at the fantasy QB4 spot and while the numbers look great, his inaccuracy (53.1% completion) is concerning. Last week Love showed some of his character and ability to handle adversity. I’m not ready to call him an every-week starter, but he needs to be owned.

QB-Russell Wilson (Broncos) - While the Broncos in general look like a mess, at least the offense and Wilson appear to be better than last year. Through the first three weeks Wilson is the No.9 fantasy quarterback. It hasn’t looked pretty at times, because the defense has been a disaster, but Wilson is completing over 65% of his passes and has thrown for 791 yards and 6 touchdowns. Wilson looks improved this season and should be considered a safe add and streaming option.

RB-Zach Moss (Colts) - He should be owned in every fantasy league and in your starting lineups. He looks the part (averaging 27 touches per game) and is currently producing like a fantasy RB1. Moss is the fantasy RB6 in his two weeks on the field and this past week against a pretty good Ravens defense he finished the week at fantasy RB5. If he’s still available go get him and use 85-90% of your FAAB to get him. 

RB-De’Von Achane (Dolphins) - The Dolphins rookie running back made a huge splash in his debut, breaking out and running all over the Broncos in week 3. Achane was on fire getting into the end zone four times and rushing for over 200 yards. It’s hard to predict his usage going forward at this moment, but with so much talent you have to believe the Phins will work him into the rotation. He should be owned and flex consideration.

WR-Tank Dell (Texans) - The Texans rookie receiver has been brilliant this season. Through the first three games he is the fantasy WR14, tied with Chris Olave. After a slow start in week one, his past two games have been Top-20 finishes. He’s averaging 7 targets per game, enough usage to keep him in the flex mix. He needs to be added.

WR-Joshua Palmer (Chargers) - There’s little doubt Palmer is going to be one of the hot adds this week. With Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams (ACL) going down this week, Palmer is the next man up. Palmer is a capable receiver in his own right and when he has been asked to step up in the past, he has delivered. He should be added and inserted into your lineup.

WR-Courtland Sutton (Broncos) - The Broncos receiver had a rough week 3, fumbling twice, but still finished as the fantasy WR13. With the improved Wilson this season, Sutton has been good enough to be a starting fantasy receiver. For the moment he warrants flex consideration and can be added.

TE-Gerald Everett (Chargers) - Everett is the fantasy TE19 through three weeks, but with the absence of Mike Williams he should see a bump in usage. His appeal and numbers should improve going forward, now would be the time to nab him before his stock rises.

A few more players that should be kept an eye on include the following players, (WR) Michael Gallup, (TE) Luke Musgrave, (WR) Quentin Johnson, (WR) Marvin Mims Jr. These are players that at some point could become viable streaming options and bye week fills.

Check your leagues for availability and good luck in week 3.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WINS

September 11th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Monday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Wins!

(NFL Week 1)

The NFL season is long and this one will be no different, unless your fantasy team is in the tank early, then it's long and one to forget. There will be plenty of surprises and disappointments throughout, just as there will be some wins and whiffs with some of my fantasy predictions. 

These were some of my week one wins.

Jordan Love (QB) - The Packers looked to be in capable hands on Sunday. With the departure of Aaron Rodgers, the Packers ushered in their next era of quarterback with Jordan Love. He led the team to a season opening road win in the windy city, passing for 245 yards and throwing three touchdowns. 

Justin Herbert (QB) - Herbert was one of my strong plays for DFS and he came through with a strong performance throwing for 228 yards on 23 of 33 passing, adding a passing touchdown and a rushing score. Herbert finished Sunday tied as the No.4 fantasy quarterback.

Travis Etienne Jr (RB) - The Jaguars running back, also a DFS favorite, was solid on Sunday, finishing as the No.7 fantasy running back. Etienne rushed for 77 yards on 18 carries, caught 5 balls for 27 yards receiving, with one rushing touchdown.

The season is early and a lot more football to be played. This list will grow. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 3rd, 2023

Sunday Evening Edition

2023 Breakout Players

(12-Team, PPR format, Fantasy Calculator)

George Pickens, WR-Steelers / ADP 6.10 - The Steelers wide receiver has displayed his incredible talent and receiving prowess throughout training camp and the preseason. He has great athletic ability and great hands. He showed plenty of flash as well in 2022, setting up what could be a breakout campaign in 2023. 

Jahan Dotson, WR-Commanders / ADP 7.01 – Dotson has been one of those players this preseason that has been the talk of Fantasy Radio. He showed some flash in 2022, scoring a touchdown in 3 of his last 5 games while totaling 344 yards receiving with 21 receptions. Dotson is could be on the verge of a big 2023 season.

Garrett Wilson, WR-Jets / ADP 2.04 – When future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers calls you special, you know that’s something. Last year’s AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, Wilson could be the piece that was missing from Rodgers derailed 2022 fantasy season. The talk is Wilson could be a top-5 fantasy wide receiver, currently being drafted as WR10.

Aaron Rodgers, QB-Jets / ADP 9.08 – Last season Rodgers overall numbers dipped quote a bit, but he didn’t have his Alpha receiver Davante Adams who had moved onto the Raiders. Traded to New York in the offseason, Rodgers may have found his new Alpha (receiving) weapon in 2nd year receiver Garrett Wilson. The benefit of having a receiver of Wilson’s caliber could return Rodgers to fantasy relevance as a top-6 fantasy quarterback.

Kenny Pickett, QB-Steelers / ADP 13.09 – The Steelers 2nd year quarterback has looked sharp in the preseason and although we don’t want to read too much it’s a good sign. Another big sign is the weapons he has in Pittsburgh, with receivers Diontae Johnson and Pickens, add a trusty tight end like Pat Freiermuth and Pickett is a favorite of mine to outperform his current QB20 draft position.

Jordan Love, QB-Packers / ADP 14.04 – Just like Pickett, I really like the Packers quarterback to outperform his current QB24 draft position. He’s been sharp in camp this season completing over 60% of his throws and tossing three touchdowns. And although the sample size is small, this is Love’s 4th season in Green Bay and I believe he’s primed and ready to breakout.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega