FSH NOTEBOOK: BY THE NUMBERS

Saturday Edition
November 24th, 2012  

By the Numbers

With the fantasy regular season winding down, it’s time to start looking at your squad for your post season run; do they have what it will take to ride deep into your fantasy playoffs. A good way to measure the value and worthiness of your players are not just performance, but matchups and tendencies will always play a big factor.

At the end of the day, when you are making your decisions who to sit and who to start, one thing you can never get away is breaking down your players by the numbers.

With week 12 under way and the Sunday schedule less than 24 hours away, here are some of my fantasy favorites; By The Numbers…

Quarterback Andy Dalton;
The Bengals are playing host to the Raiders tomorrow and this is one match up I am very fond of; quarterback Andy Dalton versus the Raiders secondary. Dalton is completing nearly 65% of his passes over his last three starts with 7 touchdowns and only one interception; he’s also averaging more than 240 yards passing. This Sunday he faces the Raiders defense that is ranked 24th against the pass (253 yards passing allowed per game), allows the 3rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and has surrendered 20 passing touchdowns. Dalton has a premiere wide out in AJ Green and has hooked up with his favorite receiving target for a score in 9 straight games; Sunday will make it 10 straight and a big day of passing for Dalton. Dalton might not be your regular starter in fantasy, but this is one week you  should try to get him in your lineup.

Quarterback Carson Palmer;
The Raiders passing offense led by quarterback Carson Palmer is ranked 7th in the league averaging 288 yards passing per game. Palmer has thrown 40 or more passes in his last three starts and has passed for more than 300 yards in each. Palmer has also thrown at least two touchdowns in each of his past four starts. The Bengals are ranked 14th against the pass and riding a two game winning streak that has put them back into the playoff hunt at 5-5. Playing at home tomorrow they could give some ground in the air to the Raiders in a game that could see the Silver & Black having to work their way out of a big hole; playing from behind could lead to more passing numbers for Palmer. Palmer ranks 6th in the NFL with 3,035 yards passing this season; he’s also thrown 17 touchdowns. He’s a low-end QB option, but worth a start this week in much deeper formats.

Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree;
The Niners passing offense has been limited this season ranked 28th in the league, but could get a lift this Sunday with Colin Kaepernick under center. Kaepernick adds another dimension to the offense that could help open things in the passing game, as it did Monday night against the Bears. Over his last three starts wide receiver Michael Crabtree has managed to find the end zone, with Kaepernick under center (if he starts), Crabtree looks like a good bet to make it four straight. The Niners will face a Saints defense that ranks 31st against the pass and has allowed 21 passing touchdowns. The Saints defense also allows the second highest passer rating to quarterbacks, nearly 64% passes completed, and the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Crabtree is averaging just 6.5 targets per game, but is making the most of them; he’s a mid-level WR3 and worth starting in most formats.

Tight End Brandon Myers;
The Raiders have been throwing the ball quite a bit their last three games, averaging nearly 49 pass attempts and one of the beneficiaries has been tight end Brandon Myers. The Raiders tight end is second on the team with 67 targets this season and is averaging 10 targets in each of the last three games. In his last three starts Myers has totaled 19 receptions, 171 yards receiving, and three touchdowns. With the Raiders on the road, this matchup could be one that sees the team playing catch up and continuing its’ recent trend; this could be good news for fantasy owners. The Bengals defense allows the 7th most fantasy points to tight ends; Myers is a top 10 tight end this week and should be in your lineup.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition
November 24th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Bryce Brown Slated to Start Monday Night
The Eagles have ruled out LeSean McCoy (concussion) for Monday night and back up rookie running back Bryce Brown will get the start. Brown has seem limited action this season, but filling in as the starter this week could offer some hope to struggling fantasy owners. With rookie quarterback Nick Foles making his second start, the Eagles could rely more on its’ ground game after last week’s struggles in the air. Brown should have some success against the Panther’s 19th ranked run defense that allows over four yards per carry. The Panthers also allow the 11th most fantasy points to running backs.

Spiller Looking for Big Game on Sunday
Running back Fred Jackson is expected to return to action this Sunday against the Colts, but it will be CJ Spiller getting the start. Jackson is returning from a concussion and will likely see limited action. Spiller has the hot hand and could continue his solid play this week facing the Colts 21st ranked run defense. Spiller leads the team with 723 yards on the ground and has added another 336 receiving yards with five total touchdowns (4 rush, 1 receiving). The Colts allow the 7th most fantasy points to running backs and have surrendered 11 rushing touchdowns; this is the recipe for a great Sunday.

Foles will Start, Vick Ruled OUT Monday
The Eagles will roll with rookie quarterback Nick Foles on Monday night against the Panthers with Michael Vick (concussion) being ruled OUT. Last week Foles really struggled in the pocket completing less than 50% of his passes and throwing two interceptions. Foles was harassed all afternoon by the Redskins defense that sacked him four times and forced three fumbles from the rookie. With Foles under center, starting receivers DeSean Jackson (2 catches, 5 yards last week) and Jeremy Maclin (0 catches last week) become huge risky plays this week. The Panthers will bring more pressure this Monday night and only allow the 6th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Jackson and Maclin should be avoided, if you have other options.

Smith or Kaepernick, Expect Niners to Ride Gore
The move to start quarterback Colin Kaepernick on Sunday against the Saints has not been made official just yet, although all signs indicate he will. Whether the Niners make the move from Alex Smith to Kaepernick this Sunday or not, facing the Saints 32nd ranked run defense the team is likely to feed its running game that features Frank Gore. Gore leads the team with 829 yards rushing this season and quietly ranks 8th in the NFL. The Saints defense this season allow the most rushing yards per game and give up the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs; Gore needs to be in all line-ups this Sunday.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SFFL WEEK 12

Thursday Edition
November 22nd, 2012  

Suicide Fantasy Football

Week 12

Last week my team took a bit of a dive (less than 100 points, season low), some of the low-lights include; a surprising let down by the Texans defense (only 3 points). My two receivers (Denarius Moore and Steve Smith) totaled just 12 points. Moore was completely ineffective finishing with one catch for 9 yards and adding one carry for -5 yards. Steve Smith was not a whole lot better finishing his day with 5 grabs for 61 yards (hardly much to get excited about). 

The one high note was quarterback Carson Palmer posting 20 points with 312 yards passing and two touchdowns; it was his 5th 300-yard passing game this season and third in a row. My place kicker of choice, Matt Prater also came through with 12 points; not big, but a nice contribution. 

Needless to say with that bump in the road my team slipped a few spots, but the top is still in sight and with another week of play it’s time to get moving back in the right direction.

Here’s my week 12 picks;

My Line-up 

Quarterback:
The Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been on a roll over his past seven games tossing 24 touchdowns to only four interceptions. This week he will match up against the Giants 25th ranked pass defense which could be the recipe for a huge game. The Giants defense allows the 13th most fantasy points to quarterbacks and has surrendered 17 touchdowns this season. I like Rodgers to attack the Giants secondary early and often; expect big numbers this week.

Running Backs:
With injuries playing a big part of the game, this week I am rolling with the rookie in Denver running back Ronnie Hillman. Last Sunday the Broncos lost starter Willis McGahee to injury (torn MCL) and will now turn to the rookie to pick up the slack. Hillman will be part of a timeshare, but with his explosiveness and lightning speed, I like him to take the lead and be very productive in the Broncos backfield. He’ll get his first shot against the Chiefs 9th ranked run defense this Sunday. With Peyton Manning drawing a lot of attention and focus from the D, all Hillman will need is a small seam or crack in the defense and he can turn it into a big play.

My other running back is the Steelers Jonathan Dwyer who will share time as well this Sunday. Last Sunday night Dwyer proved to be the more effective runner in the Steelers backfield and whether he starts or not, he’ll get his share of carries in week 12. Dywer has emerged as the team’s leading rusher and should lead the way this Sunday. The Steelers will face the Browns 24th ranked run defense on Sunday and Dwyer will have an opportunity to take his shots at a defense that allows the 13th most fantasy points to running backs. This doesn’t have the making of a huge day, but Dwyer should be solid as a strong flex this week.

Wide Receivers:
It’s Thanksgiving and if you own Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant, you are thankful for last Sunday’s performance against the Browns. This week Bryant will be part of the Thanksgiving Thursday schedule and could give owners plenty more to be thankful for when he faces the Redskins 29th ranked pass defense. Bryant is second on the team with 86 targets this season and has emerged as quarterback Tony Romos’ primary weapon. Bryant has scored in each of his last two starts, he’s coming off a big performance, and facing the Redskins secondary that allows the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receivers he looks primed for a great Thanksgiving day performance.

My second receiver of choice is simply a “riding the hot hand” move with a good match up this Sunday; Jaguars wide receiver Justin Blackmon. The rookie receiver is coming up a huge day against the Texans in week 11 with over 200 yards receiving on 7 receptions. Blackmon’s breakout game last week came with quarterback Chad Henne under center and now with Henne the starter, I like the chances of continued success. Blackmon will also face the Titans 26 ranked pass defense that allows the 14th most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Tight End:
The Broncos passing offense has been automatic and solid this season under the direction of quarterback Peyton Manning ranked 5th in the league. In his first season with the Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme is also enjoying modest success as one of Mannings’ weapons. Manning spreads the ball around quite a bit these days, but Tamme will still see his normal 5-6 targets and could steal a red zone grab. He’s only scored once this season, while his teammate tight end Joel Dreesen has scored four times; Tamme is due to cash in.

Place Kicker:
The Bengals will host the Raiders this Sunday and kicker Mike Nugent should see plenty of opportunities to chip in a number of kicks against one of the leagues worst defenses. The Raiders have allowed the most points this season (32.2 per game) and rank 24th in total yards allowed. At home I like the Bengals to be able to move the ball with great success setting up some easy shots for Nugent.

Team Defense:
The Rams are the defense of choice this week. On the road facing the Cardinals, the defense ranked 11th in total yards allowed this season will look to get their team back on track. The Rams have a pretty good pass rush with 29 sacks this season and with the recent quarterback struggles the Cardinals have had, this could be a good match up for the Rams.

These are my picks for week 12.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Edition
November 21st, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Henne Takes Over Starting Duties in Jacksonville
Chad Henne blew up last week for big numbers against a very good Texans defense, now the named starter the rest of the way he’ll have a chance to earn the gig full-time in 2013. The football gods must be smiling down on Henne at the moment with a week 12 matchup against the Titans 26th pass defense. The Titans allow the 6th most fantasy quarterbacks , a good matchup for Henne to continue his hot hand.

Avery Limited, but Looks Like He Will Play Sunday
The Colts receiver Donnie Avery is returning from a concussion suffered on Sunday. With his early return to the practice field, all signs for the moment point toward his playing this week against the Bills. Avery has been the team’s predominant number two receiver much of the season, but his numbers and targets have fallen a bit over the past several weeks. The Bills rank 18th versus the pass and allow the 12th most fantasy points to wide receivers, including 13 touchdowns this season; a good matchup for Avery to rebound.

Thursday Night Could be Lloyds Night
With two of Tom Brady’s favorite targets (Gronkowski & Hernandez) OUT and limited for Thursday night, wide receiver Brandon Lloyd could be next up on the Patriots rotation. Lloyd and Brady have been off just a bit this season, but Lloyd continues to see his share of balls; second on the team with 82 targets. In Lloyd’s last two games he’s seen a total of 13 targets, a slight drop from what he was getting earlier in the season. With limited weapons tomorrow night for Brady, Lloyd could be a strong flex option.

Kaepernick to Start Versus Saints
The Niners are sticking with their healthy quarterback Colin Kaepernick; he will get the start this Sunday against the Saints. Kaepernick had the hot hand and arm on Monday night completely dismantling the Bears defense and with the Saints up next, fantasy owners should expect more. The Saints defense is allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including 21 touchdowns this season. With his mobility, Kaepernick is a double threat and lock to produce solid fantasy numbers; could be waiver wire pick up of the week.

The Chief Wide Reciever Bowe Limited
Wide receiver Dwayne Bowe (neck) was limited in practice, but looks to be on track to play Sunday barring any setbacks. With the Chiefs matching up with the Broncos on Sunday, this is not good news for Bowe or fantasy owners. Bowe is likely to see a lot of the Broncos cover corner Champ Bailey, fantasy owners should not expect a big day; he’s nothing more than a flex option at best.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Edition
November 20th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

McGahee OUT, Hillman Set to Take the Reins
The Denver Broncos running game took a huge hit on Sunday with running back Willis McGahee going down with a torn MCL. McGahee is expected to miss the remainder of the regular season and the team will turn to rookie running back Ronnie Hillman to pick up the slack. Hillman is going to share time with running back Lance Ball, but the rookie will offer the greater upside. Hillman has burst and explosion and can give the Broncos running game the big play component it may be lacking. Hillman is definitely one of week 12’s sleeper plays and waiver wire favorites.

Felix Likely A Game-Time Call for Thursday
The Cowboys running back Felix Jones is currently nursing a couple of sore knees, but will likely get the call again to start this Thursday. Jones has started the last five games for the Cowboys will get the start again if he can go. Jones is likely to be a game-time call, but early signs indicate he will likely play. Jones did score this past Sunday, but again struggled on the ground with just 43 yards rushing on 14 carries. He’s no more than a very low flex option in deeper formats.

Garcon Limited, Questionable for Thursday
The Redskins wide receiver Pierre Garcon made his return last Sunday against the Eagles, but was relatively ineffective and a fantasy non-factor finishing the game with three catches for just 5 yards. Garcon is still dealing with a foot injury and is expected to be game-time for Thursday’s matchup against the Cowboys. Even if Garcon is a go, it’s hard-pressed to think he can offer much fantasy value facing the Cowboys secondary that allow the 8th fewest fantasy points to receivers. 

Starks Falling Down the Fantasy Tree
The Packers running back James Starks has had a hard go of it on the ground as of late totaling just 135 yards on 42 carries for a 3.2 yards per average in his two recent starts. That’s not going to get it done and with head coach Mike McCarthy expressing displeasure with Starks recent lack of production, his (little) fantasy value takes a big hit. Starks will have limited value in deeper leagues and going forward it sounds like we can expect to see more of a committee approach in the backfield. With Cedric Benson possibly due back in couple of weeks Starks continues to lose any fantasy value he may have offered.

Dwyer Looks Like the Favorite for Now
After watching the Steelers ground game against Ravens this past Sunday night, it looks apparent that running back Jonathan Dwyer has to be the favorite in the teams’ backfield. Both Dwyer and Mendenhall (33 yards) saw double digit carries in the game, but Dwyer (55 yards) was the more effective runner. With Big Ben still ailing expect the Steelers to stick more with the ground game opening up plenty of opportunities for Dwyer going forward.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: QUICK TAKES

Monday Edition

November 19th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

MNF Quick Notes

Sunday Night’s matchup between the Ravens and Steelers was just an appetizer to what fantasy owners should expect tonight when the San Francisco 49ers host the Chicago Bears. While both teams are not short on the fantasy list of offensive skill players, this contest has the makings to be all about the defense.

With that said, there will still be plenty of notable fantasy players to watch on both sidelines when these two teams take to the field in just a few short hours. None of what I have to say here is to say or suggest no other players will rise tonight, but if you are just looking for those safe plays, these gridiron warriors may be as far as you want to look.

The Players…

The Bears will provide some of the more attractive options, although tonight they may not offer some of their more productive outings. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall has been a fantasy savior this season, in particular of late. Marshall is currently riding a six game streak with at least 6 catches and 80 yards receiving. In that span his numbers are 51 receptions for 690 yards with six touchdowns; even with Jason Campbell under center Marshall should be targeted heavily and be able to produce his minimum numbers, 6/80.

The Niners defense is stingy to say the least, but fortunately for Matt Forte owners, the Bears ball carrier is multi-faceted. The versatile back will likely contribute as much in the short passing as he does in the run and while yards may be tough to find on the ground with 22 receptions this season he should still be a safe PPR play this evening.

On the other sideline, running back Frank Gore is a hard nose grinder built for matchups just like tonight. He should see more than enough carries to gauge and carve his way through the Bears defense for good numbers. I would not expect (though I wouldn’t be surprised) a 100-yard effort, but Gore may come very close and could sneak a carry into the end zoen f the Niners can keep this one close and not get impatient. Their best tonight will be with Gore and the Niners ground game, especially after watching the Texans grind out 129 yards last Sunday night.

Sleeper…

With this one being a close affair and both sides taking a more conservative approach, don’t be surprised to see Bears Michael Bush getting some carries and maybe an opportunity or two in the red zone. He may not offer much to most, but in deeper formats he could be a nice sleeper play in a flex spot.

Team Defenses…

While the Niners defense does get a lot of notoriety, the Bears defense may be the better play tonight. The Bears have been making as much if not more noise than any other team in the league on the defensive side of the ball in 2012; a good reason why any fantasy players versus the Bears tonight could face a disappointing outcome. The Bears are by no means dominant and they are not going to shut folks down, but they are opportunistic and big play. Sacks, picks, and touchdowns seem to be the trademark of the Bears and facing a back-up quarterback tonight would seem to spell much success.

  

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SFFL WEEK 11

Sunday Edition
November 18th, 2012  

Suicide Fantasy Football

Week 11

Week 10 was another moving day as my team posted a solid 106 points. My top scorers last week were quarterback Matthew Stafford (26.46 points), running back Frank Gore (20.50 points), and wide receiver Malcom Floyd (18.30 points). 

This week will offer a lot of favorable matchups for my players of choice and now sitting in the 12th spot this could be the week where my team cracks the top 10.

With my team set to make it’s move, here’s my lineup for week11;

My Line-up 

Quarterback:
With the Saints coming to town, quarterback Carson Palmer will continue to sling the rock all over the sandlot. Palmer is averaging over 50 passes and 390 yards passing in his last two starts. The Saints defense is ranked 31st against the pass (19 touchdowns allowed) and allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, this is the week to start Palmer if you have him.

Running Backs:
I have already played running back CJ Spiller (this was the week to start him) and his performance was not great, but did not disappoint with a 16 point effort.

My other ball carrier this week is the Packers running back James Starks. Green Bay is traveling to Detroit in what looks to have the making of a track meet, but Starks has earned the starting gig and should see the majority of carries for the Pack. The Pack will undoubtedly be able to move the ball today and Starks could get a couple of red zone carries. 

Wide Receivers:
Lining up wide for my squad is the Raiders wide receiver Denarius Moore. It only makes sense if the Saints are getting torched by quarterbacks they have to be throwing the ball to someone. If Palmer has a big game today, Moore is going to be a huge benefactor, especially with Heyward-Bey on the shelf today. The Saints also allow the most fantasy points to wide receivers.

My other pass catcher today is the Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith. The speedy wideout has a very nice matchup today facing the Buccaneers 32nd ranked pass defense. Smith was held to just one catch last week against the Broncos, so he’ll be looking to rebound today and should. The Buccaneers defense allow the 2nd most fantasy points to wide receivers and have surrendered the second most completions to wide outs.

Tight End:
I consider this my risky pick going with the Eagles tight end Brent Celek. What I like about Celek today, a rookie quarterback needs a safety blanket and Celek could be just that for quarterback Nick Foles. Celek will also matchup against the Redskins 30th pass defense that allows the 2nd most fantasy points to tight ends; hard to argue these numbers.

Place Kicker:
The Broncos have been rolling and they will be at home today. There’s no place like home and with quarterback Peyton Manning leading the charge the Broncos are sure to see plenty of scoring opportunities; hence my starting place kicker Matt Prater. In a divisional matchup today I expect to see the Broncos to take points when they are available and we could see Prater hitting several kicks today.

Team Defense:
The Jaguars just don’t have any weapons, especially with Maurice Jones-Drew sidelined and with the Texans in town, this is a matchup you can’t ignore. The Texans are coming off a great road win and at home today against the Jags seems like a no-brainer. The Jags offense also allows the 3rd most fantasy points.

These are my picks for week 11.


By David Ortega