FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Edition
November 21st, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Henne Takes Over Starting Duties in Jacksonville
Chad Henne blew up last week for big numbers against a very good Texans defense, now the named starter the rest of the way he’ll have a chance to earn the gig full-time in 2013. The football gods must be smiling down on Henne at the moment with a week 12 matchup against the Titans 26th pass defense. The Titans allow the 6th most fantasy quarterbacks , a good matchup for Henne to continue his hot hand.

Avery Limited, but Looks Like He Will Play Sunday
The Colts receiver Donnie Avery is returning from a concussion suffered on Sunday. With his early return to the practice field, all signs for the moment point toward his playing this week against the Bills. Avery has been the team’s predominant number two receiver much of the season, but his numbers and targets have fallen a bit over the past several weeks. The Bills rank 18th versus the pass and allow the 12th most fantasy points to wide receivers, including 13 touchdowns this season; a good matchup for Avery to rebound.

Thursday Night Could be Lloyds Night
With two of Tom Brady’s favorite targets (Gronkowski & Hernandez) OUT and limited for Thursday night, wide receiver Brandon Lloyd could be next up on the Patriots rotation. Lloyd and Brady have been off just a bit this season, but Lloyd continues to see his share of balls; second on the team with 82 targets. In Lloyd’s last two games he’s seen a total of 13 targets, a slight drop from what he was getting earlier in the season. With limited weapons tomorrow night for Brady, Lloyd could be a strong flex option.

Kaepernick to Start Versus Saints
The Niners are sticking with their healthy quarterback Colin Kaepernick; he will get the start this Sunday against the Saints. Kaepernick had the hot hand and arm on Monday night completely dismantling the Bears defense and with the Saints up next, fantasy owners should expect more. The Saints defense is allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including 21 touchdowns this season. With his mobility, Kaepernick is a double threat and lock to produce solid fantasy numbers; could be waiver wire pick up of the week.

The Chief Wide Reciever Bowe Limited
Wide receiver Dwayne Bowe (neck) was limited in practice, but looks to be on track to play Sunday barring any setbacks. With the Chiefs matching up with the Broncos on Sunday, this is not good news for Bowe or fantasy owners. Bowe is likely to see a lot of the Broncos cover corner Champ Bailey, fantasy owners should not expect a big day; he’s nothing more than a flex option at best.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Edition
November 11th, 2012  








David’s Daily Digest

Sunday notes

NFL sources have already ruled out Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin today, so you can expect to see a ton of Adrian Peterson. All-Day may have trouble finding a lot of holes today against the Lions run defense, but he’s going to get plenty of touches and is always a good bet to break one. AP is good for a 20+ carry game today and 100 yards on the ground seems likely.

The Patriots are going to be without tight end Aaron Hernandez. Going up against the Bills today, we should see lots of running back Stevan Ridley and you can count of some Gronk in the red zone. Tight end Visanthe Shancoe is expected to start in place of Hernandez, but he’s not expected to make any kind of fantasy impact today.

The Lions Calvin Johnson is expected to play according to ESPN’s Chris Mortensen. There’s was little chance of Megatron sitting this week as is the case with most weeks; takes more than a little Madden curse to keep Megatron out. Calvin has just one touchdown this season, but he has responded with four 100-yard receiving games; he’s on pace for 96 receptions and 1,534 yards (not bad for a curse).

Running back DeMarco Murray is still sidelined opening the door for back up Felix Jones to make his fourth straight start. Since his week six 92 yard rushing effort Jones has hardly been a factor in the run game, but he did post 109 total yards last week; although a great number came late in the game against a prevent defense. Jones is only worth a look in the deepest leagues as a possible flex play.

The Texans are calling tight end Owen Daniels a game-time decision and won’t make any decisions on whether he’ll play until we are closer to kickoff; the Texans play in the Sunday night contest. Daniels is one of the leagues’ leading tight ends, but does have a tough matchup against a physical Bears defense. With a late game today, if you have a capable backup and can avoid this situation it’s probably best.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

December 4th, 2011 Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

My quick notes:

Who to Watch

Tonight’s Sunday night matchup between the Saints and Lions could end up being a much closer track meet than what saw last Monday between the Saints and Giants. Matthew Stafford has shown this season he has the talent to run with the big dogs, but he’s also got the horses. The Saints are 27th against the pass and could have a lot of matchup problems with some of the Lions big targets. I like Stafford to break out of his funk and play well on the road.

The Cowboys have been rolling along the past several weeks and a big reason has been the consistent play of quarterback Tony Romo. On the road today, he’ll have a chance to continue his winning ways and solid play when the Cowboys meet the Cardinals in Arizona. The Cards rank 25th against the pass and allow more than 250 yards in the air; Romo should be solid today.

Despite the notion that “he can’t” I would suggest sticking with your instincts and keep Tebow in your lineup. He’s on the road today to take on Minnesota, and while the Broncos have been predominantly a running team, I expect to see a few more balls in the air. This could be the week where we see more of Tebow the passer and not just Tebow the playmaker. Either way facing the leagues 29th ranked pass defense could mean for a big game for Tebow.

Who to Avoid

It looks like Rams quarterback Sam Bradford (game-time decision) is sitting on the fence and with AJ Feeley taking first team snaps this week in practice, this could be a situation well worth avoiding all together. The Rams are on the road today and face a daunting task when they travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers.

The Cardinals Beanie Wells is coming off a career game, so the tendency is to stick him in your line-up. While the Cowboys have not been stout versus the run, they have good speed on the defensive side and could be playing most of this game from out front. Wells will become less of a factor if the Cards have to play catchup; Wells could be risky so you may want to look at better options if available.


My Picks Today

My “Four Horsemen”

I stepped away for a while, but today I am feeling good about quite a few players, so let’s take another shot at our four riders for week 13;

Matthew Stafford; the kid has been struggling some, but I look for a bounce back performance tonight against a Saint team that will have to bring pressure and could leave a few Lions in single coverage. Stafford should go for a nifty 300 with at least two touchdowns tonight.

Reggie Bush; if you play PPR then this is your man for Sundya. Taking on the Raiders, Bush should be the focus out of the backfield and in space. The Raiders run defense is ranked 27th and will have trouble slowing down Bush; he’s also a threat to grab a number of passes out of the backfield. I expect at least 125 yards of total offense with 4-5 grabs and a trip to the end-zone.

Brandon Lloyd; despite the possible change at quarterback today, I still like Lloyd. He is the Rams best weapon and whether it’s Feeley or Bradford, he’ll see more than his share of targets; averaging double-digits since becoming a Ram. The 49ers boast a stingy defense, but they do surrender over 240 yards per game and have allowed 15 passing touchdowns. I expect Lloyd to grab a number of passes with at least one trip to the end-zone.

Aaron Hernandez; The Colts are well of aware of the Patriots tight ends, but they won’t be able to cover both. Gronkowski has been the focus over recent weeks, but with Hernandez coming off consecutive seven target games I expect to see Brady look his way a little more often this Sunday. Hernandez has not a big game since week one, but could turn in a huge day today against the Colts; six catches, 85 yards and a score.

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY GAMETIME

October 16th, 2011 Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

My quick notes:

Who to Watch

The Falcons may get caught up in a shoot-out today, something they have not been proficient at this season, but I am expecting a more explosive team that we have yet to see. With their explosive rookie receiver Julio Jones OUT today, it will be a no-brainer for quarterback Matt Ryan to decide where to go with the ball; expect a big game from wide receiver Roddy White, 10+ targets today will net him some big numbers and lots of fantasy points.

The Cowboys wide receiver Miles Austin makes his return today against the Patriots and you have to love his matchup against the league’s worst secondary. Expect Romo to take a couple of shots deep to Austin and connect; Miles should be big today for fantasy owners.

With the Falcons and Panthers putting up huge numbers today, fantasy owners better keep their eyes on Panthers rookie quarterback Cam Newton and wide receiver Steve Smith. The Falcons have had their issues in the secondary and with pressure on the quarterback. Newton has been a fantasy beast this season and week six will prove to be no different. Smith will of course benefit greatly today from Cam’s success.


Who to Avoid

For most fantasy owners this may go without saying, but after coming off a very poor week five performance and loss the Bills, expect the Eagles defense to take out their frustrations on Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman. They may concede a few yards on the ground to the Redskins running game, but when they have their opportunities they will get to Grossman and force some mistakes.

The Colts backfield is in for a long day against one of the league’s stingiest defenses. The Bengals are ranked 7th against the run allowing just 3.2 yards per carry and today they could improve on both of those numbers; avoid running backs Delone Carter and Donald Brown. They won’t see a lot of opening or yards on the ground today.


My Picks Today

My “Four Horsemen”

I haven’t been having my best season thus far, but I am looking for week six to really get things turned around.

Tony Romo; win or lose today in Foxboro, the Cowboys gunslinger is going to put up some big numbers today against the league’s 32nd ranked pass defense. Romo will see the return of wide receiver Miles Austin and he’ll also have (TE) Jason Witten and (WR) Dez Bryant to throw to today.

Ryan Torain; the Eagles defense struggles with the ground game and could see a lot of Torain early and often. As long as the Redskins take care of the ball and keeps this close, Torain could see a hefty workload and some very good rushing numbers. He should make at least one trip to the house today.

Roddy White; the Falcons could be gearing up for a shoot-out today in the dome, something that will favor White fantasy owners. Roddy is averaging just 11 yards per catch and has just two scores; against the Panthers 14th ranked secondary expect those numbers to improve.

Aaron Hernandez; The Cowboys secondary is very thin and has been quite suspect this season ranked 13th against the pass. With receivers like Welker and Branch to contend with expect Brady to exploit matchups with his tight ends, especially Hernandez. The Patriots often like to split Hernandez wide and in the slot; he could be hugely effective in the red-zone today.

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 7th, 2011 Friday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Ryan Grant Cleared to Play
The James Starks (210 yards rushing) ERA could be put on hold for a bit with running back Ryan Grant cleared to play Sunday against the Falcons. For the better part of this young season Starks has looked like the dominant runner, until the old Grant showed up in week 3 (92 yards on 17 carries). Last week Grant was held out of action with a bruised kidney injury, but this Sunday he makes his return. His return and presence will affect Starks playing time, so fantasy owners should be advised if rolling with Starks.

Hernandez on track to Play Sunday
The Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez has been practicing and appears to be ready to return to action this week; it was noted that Hernandez has been moving around the team facility without a limp. With the Patriots offense ranked number one in passing if Hernandez (14 receptions, 2 touchdowns) is active on Sunday, he is a must play against the Jets.

Manning’s Fire Keeps Growing
While big brother is sidelined this season with injury, the Giants quarterback Eli Manning is doing his best to carry the family name. In the past three weeks Manning has thrown eight touchdowns with just one pick. With the league’s 14th ranked pass defense (Cardinals) coming to town, Manning is looking to keep his fire burning.

Bradshaw Could see a big load on Sunday
The Giants are likely to be without running back Brandon Jacobs on Sunday when they face the Cardinals, with Jacobs out Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to see a larger work-load. Bradshaw is averaging better than five yards per carry, but has not carried the ball more than 15 times in any game this season; this Sunday that could change.

Daniels Figures to see More Action
With the Texans missing Andre Johnson this week against the Raiders, someone will have to step up in the passing game; tight end Owen Daniels. Daniels has been relatively quiet this season, although he does have 10 receptions over the past two weeks and has scored three times this season. On Sunday Daniels will face the Raiders 22nd ranked pass defense.

Garcon Could Be a Nice Play in Week 5
The Colts offense is beginning to show some signs of life and one of its most lively components is wide receiver Pierre Garcon. In the past two weeks Garcon has seen a total of 18 targets and has benefitted greatly; 218 yards receiving with two touchdowns. This week the Colts will face the Chiefs 15th ranked pass defense and Garcon figures to see plenty of chances in the pass game; he could be a nice flex in week 5.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

February 14th, 2011 Monday

David’s Daily Digest

The Most Notable Fantasy Players of 2011

The 2010 season produced a long list of new names to the fantasy world, names that owners will be coveting greatly come fantasy draft day. These are just more the studs we’ll be talking about on fantasy draft day 2011.

RB-Peyton Hillis (Browns)
The Browns not only found a starter in running back Peyton Hillis, they found a superstar. Hillis was merely a back-up and special teamer in Denver, but did show some flash back in 2008 when given the opportunity. This past season he was handed the reins and ran with it he did. Hillis finished the 2010 season with 1,177 yards on the ground and 11 rushing touchdowns. More of a power runner he still averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught 61 balls for another 477 yards receiving. With numbers like he produced this past season, Hillis appears to be a strong top 10 fantasy candidate in 2011.

WR-Mike Williams (Seahawks)
The Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll rediscovered a college jewel and brought him to Seattle when he signed wide receiver Mike Williams. Maybe all he needed was a little motivation, but whatever it was, Carroll found the formula and Williams was reborn. The Seahawks wide receiver bounced back from the abyss in 2010 to snag 65 balls for 735 yards and two scores. Not bad for someone who had not caught a pass in over two seasons. His numbers weren’t spectacular, but he played well enough at times for folks to take notice; he could be a top 25 fantasy receiver in 2011 (especially PPR leagues).

WR-Hakeem Nicks (Giants)
The Giants 2nd year receiver exploded in 2010 with a huge season catching 79 passes for 1,052 yards receiving, and 11 touchdowns; led the team in all three categories. Nicks was a big time play-maker last season; with great hands and great speed he can only get better. Nicks will undoubtedly and rightfully fall into the top 10 for wide receivers in this summer’s fantasy drafts.

RB-Mike Tolbert (Chargers)
The Chargers less notable, but more productive running back Mike Tolbert earned his way onto the fantasy radar last season. With rookie Ryan Matthews banged up for quite a bit of the season, Tolbert was given more opportunity to carry the rock and he did it well. Tolbert was an effective running option in San Diego tallying 182 carries for the season. He also collected 735 yards on the ground and scored 11 touchdowns. He’ll see a slight decrease in touches next season if Matthews stays healthy, but he’s still fantasy worthy in deep leagues.

TE-Aaron Hernandez (Patriots)
The Patriots tight end enjoyed a pretty good rookie campaign, but it was one that could have been much more productive had he remained healthy. Hernandez played in 14 games last season recording 45 receptions for 563 yards and six touchdowns. With a healthy campaign in 2011 and Tom Brady tossing the pill, Hernandez should be a possible top 10 option for fantasy owners.

WR-Mike Williams (Buccaneers)
The other Mike Williams over in Tampa was not too bad himself last season. In fact the rookie was sensational catching 65 balls for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns. These numbers were not quite the level of the elite, but they were more than good enough to have owners looking at him much earlier in fantasy drafts this summer. With an up and coming quarterback (Josh Freeman), Williams looks like he can be a very good fantasy player in 2011.


Check back for more of my digest and more notes on fantasy players in 2011.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

December 26th, 2010, Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

Today’s injury notes

The Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez practiced Friday and is expected to start today against the Bears according to ESPN. Sanchez is dealing with a sore shoulder, but did not suffer any setbacks this week; he is clear to play and will start.

The Patriots are likely to go after their 13th win and a chance to clinch a division title today without rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez. He has been downgraded to doubtful with a hip injury and is not expected to play today, according to the Patriots Twitter feed.

The Jaguars are not expecting running back Maurice Jones-Drew to be available today against the Redskins. MJD missed practice all week and looks doubtful for today’s matchup. Running back Rashard Jennings would get the start if MJD is unable to go.

The Packers will have quarterback Aaron Rodgers returning to the lineup today against the Giants. Rodgers, recovering from a concussion was cleared earlier in the week to return to the field and practiced well all week with the team this week. He is expected to start.

Before they signs indicated this game could be postponed, the Vikings quarterback Brett Favre was looking doubtful for Sunday night. If the game gets moved, you’d better check back on Favre’s status.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Texan’s are likely to be without wide receiver Andre Johnson (ankle). The Texan’s wideout is listed as doubtful for Sunday, but Johnson will test the ankle during warm-ups; the Texan’s play a late game today.

The Bengals will not have Chad Ochocinco (foot) available today against the visiting Chargers. The team has declared the wide receiver inactive. Rookie receiver Jordan Shipley and Andre Caldwell and expected to start for the injured TO and Ochocinco.

Today’s Matchup

Weather conditions should have little effect on Philip Rivers today, expect to the see the Bolts’ quarterbacks do what he does so well; throw the ball. He should have a big day as one of the top rated quarterbacks in the league.

Rodgers will be a risk and reward play today against the Giants. As long as he is protected he’ll be able to torch the Giants’ secondary, but expect the G-men to come after him with lots of blitzes and pressure. As long as he is standing he’s due for a big passing day.

Rashard Jennings is expected to start in place of the injured MJD, but he is not MJD. The Redskins are however the 27th ranked run defense. Jennings should be productive (90+ total yards), but not likely to have a huge game.

With Andre Johnson ailing, tight end Owen Daniels could become more of a focal point in the pass game against an awful Broncos secondary. Daniels should see plenty of targets today and has a good chance at scoring Sunday.

The Jaguars defense ranks 18th against the run, so expect to see a heavy does of Redskin’s running back Ryan Torain. With Grossman making his second start on Sunday the Redskins would like to get Torain rolling early and see a more balanced attack. Torain leads the team with 616 yards rushing and three touchdowns this season.

By David Ortega