FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Morning Edition

September 21st, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Gametime

Favorites for Week 3

It’s Sunday morning and time to set those line-ups for Week 3. This past week I have been looking at the numbers, reflecting back on some of the action I have been able to catch, and taking notes from around the many sites and shows covering fantasy football.

With all this information, I must know what I am doing right? Wrong, I would be just as confused as anyone, but fortunately it does not matter. I have fun playing fantasy football and in the grand scheme, that’s what matter. Of course winning is fun too!

The Four Horsemen

In week 3, if my hopes of winning rely on Bills quarterback EJ Manuel that might be a good thing. The Bills are off to a fast start 2-0, and with a home game scheduled today facing a west coast team, the chances are good they could be 3-0 by day’s end. Manuel intrigues me today, because he’ll face a defense that allows 8.2 yards per pass (tied for 5^th most) and has allowed the 5^th most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. With his arms and legs in play, I believe Manuel is a sneaky play for week 3.

In the backfield I have been betting large on Colts running back Ahmad Bradshaw. He’s coming off a two-score performance last Monday night and has a prime matchup against Jacksonville. The Jaguars defense allows the most fantasy points to opposing running backs and has surrendered 5 total touchdowns to the position. Bradshaw is golden to be a solid play today.

Split out wide, my money today is on Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson. There was some speculation in the preseason about Johnson’s outlook; would he be traded, has he lost a step, is he on the decline. His 2014 campaign is not lighting any fires, but facing the Giants defense that allows the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers could help to ignite it. The Giants secondary has also surrendered 355 yards receiving to the position (5^th most), numbers that favor a strong outing for Johnson; play him with confidence.

At the tight end spot, I am rolling out with the Titans Delanie Walker. He’s had a strong start this season with 13 receptions for 179 yards and two scores. He’s facing a Bengals defense that allowed 10 receptions to the opposing tight end back in week 1. Walker may not need as many balls to do damage, but his 18 targets in two games suggest he’ll be a busy man on Sunday. I like one of those to come in the red zone for pay dirt. Walker is my play at tight end today.

These are my Sunday takes for week 3.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Evening Edition

September 9th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 1 Recap

Sorting through the Debris

The fantasy football roller-coaster is just starting to pick up speed and with one week in the books, there’s so much to cover and talk about. We have to look at who did what, who was a bust, which sleepers emerged, and which studs were on par this past Sunday. Was there real concern in the Steelers backfield with Le’Veon Bell and LeGarette Blount splitting carries, who is the real feature back in New England, and with Wes Welker missing which Broncos receiver emerged to pick up the slack?

With all of this to sort through it can become real over-whelming for fantasy owners looking to rebound from their week one debacle or continue their winning ways following a season opening win. There’s never too much information when it comes to fantasy football, just sometimes we need to take a minute to sort through the debris and see a clear picture.

The refuse…

With Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell seeing the bulk of work (27 touches) in week one, looks like fantasy owners that drafted running back LeGarrette Blount (4 touches) may have to rethink their strategy. He did sneak in a score, but going forward if he is limited to few touches, owners can’t count on consistent production.

There was a lot of hype surrounding the Lions rookie tight end Eric Ebron, but for now that’s all there is. Ebron was targeted just twice and did not record a catch. He’s not worth owning at this time; at least not until fantasy owners see something.

The Cardinals running back Andre Ellington saw plenty of action on Monday night; 18 touches. Back-up running back Jonathan Dwyer saw about the most action he might see all season; 9 touches for 28 yards. You can toss Dwyer back into the pile.

The Salvage….

The Ravens basically benched running back Bernard Pierce after fumbling, which opened the door for running back Justin Forsett. The journeyman back finished with 16 touches, which included 6 targets. Going forward, in light of the Ray Rice loss Forsett should continue to see plenty of action as long as he responds as he did in week one; he had 84 total yards and a score.

The Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger likes his receiver Antonio Brown, but his second year wideout Marcus Wheaton could quickly become his second favorite. Wheaton has great speed and tremendous upside, along with his seven targets (tied for most on team) on Sunday he looks to be busy fantasy receiver as well. Wheaton is probably a low WR3 or flex at the moment, but should be owned.

So much for the worry surrounding Texans receiver Andre Johnson; he was a bit quiet on Sunday, but still turned in a decent fantasy day with six receptions for 93 yards. His nine targets should be a real indicator he’s still a safe fantasy play on Sunday.

The Broncos just have too many weapons and with Wes Welker out, quarterback Peyton Manning just dipped into his receiving depth targeting wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders nine times. Sanders also added a carry for 11 yards. He’s a safe weekly play as a mid flex or high WR3.

Lastly, I heard about this kid early last week, the Saints rookie receiver Brandin Cooks and what I saw on Sunday confirmed the deal. Cooks is a special talent that we’ll continue to see lots of moving forward. On Sunday he totaled 95 yards with one receiving touchdown on 8 touches. In the Saints explosive pass game Cooks should be a gamer. Owners may want to temper their expectations momentarily until we see a larger sample, but he should be a safe flex for now.

These are just some of my takes for the Week 1 recap.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Edition
October 21st, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes

It’s a bit of a stretch, wide receiver Donnie Avery could be a huge factor today against the Browns. Andrew Luck has played extremely well at home this season and play opposite wide receiver Reggie Wayne has to open some good looks for Avery. The speedy wideout is second on the team with 47 targets and is coming off a season high 12 targets.

The Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant is the hot hand in big D with 21 receptions for 200 yards with two touchdowns in the team’s past two games. Bryant has been targeted 28 times and figures to remain the focal point of the passing attack, as long as he is on the field. A groin injury could make him a risky play, but he is expected in the lineup today.

The Texans playmaking wide receiver Andre Johnson has been relatively quiet this season, but today could offer a big change to that. The Ravens 22nd ranked pass defense rolls into town minus their heart and soul, lineback Ray Lewis. Even with the addition of Terrell Suggs, the Ravens defense is still in trouble without one of their best corners Lardarius Webb; Johnson could be looking at his 2012 breakout game.

The Packers offense flourished a week ago against a very tough Texans defense and not saying the Rams will fold like a house of cards, but they will have their hands more than full trying to slow Aaron Rodgers and company. A less than household name wide receiver Randall Cobb could come up as one of the catalyst to lead the Packers charge. With Jennings sidelined the past three weeks Cobb has tallied 18 receptions and 250 yards receiving on 22 targets.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: QUICK TAKES

Sunday Edition
October 14th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Week 6 Quick Takes

Likes

The Lions are not known for being a stellar run defense, even with Ndamukong Suh lining up. The Eagles running back LeSean McCoy has elevated himself to elite status as a runner and for fantasy owners, it’s about that time to rise again. The Lions have been respectable, but McCoy is too dynamic to be contained and should contribute in both the run and pass game today.

The Texans and Packers could be headed to an old-fashion shootout tonight when they take the field. There’s no question the Packers secondary will be focused on containing wideout Andre Johnson, but I like tight end Owen Daniels to exploit some matchups and have a big game. Daniels has emerged as one of quarterback Matt Schaub’s favorites and leads the team with 33 targets.

With Daniel Thomas sidelined, this could be the week that Dolphins running back Reggie Bush makes believers out of everyone again. Bush is having a decent 2012 campaign, but today’s matchup against the Rams 18th ranked run defense could be the spring board he’s looking for. The Rams allow well over four yards per carry, nearly 120 yards per game, and in five games have surrendered six rushing touchdowns. I like Bush to have a nice game on the ground and look for him to add a couple of grabs to the stat book.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Edition

August 17th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

2011 in Rewind

The Busts, Duds, and Disappointments

Staying with the “looking back at 2011” theme, let’s talk about a few names from last year that drove us nuts, because of under-performing, pulling the disappearing act, or just not showing up; and let me say having played in quite a few leagues last season the list is long.

With the 2012 season just about to start, a new fantasy season upon us, and so much to be excited about, we won’t delve too deeply into this touchy subject. As is the case every year, there are going to be players that will break your heart and each year fantasy owners learn that tough lesson the hard way.

These are just a few of those players.

The Heartbreakers

Last season there were several, just ask all of the (RB) Darren McFadden, (RB) Jamaal Charles, and (WR) Andre Johnson owners. These were some of the biggest fantasy studs in the game last year and with their seasons cut short because of injury fantasy owners were left with nothing but heartache. There is tremendous talent with this list, but plenty of risk if you choose to go for broke and draft them early. Johnson and Charles might be safer picks, but McFadden is likely the trickier play. He has a history, albeit short history of being a homerun hitter on the field or swing and a miss play in fantasy. If you put all your eggs in his basket, be prepared with plenty of Kleenex (just in case).

The Chargers have a running back that might also fit this profile; Ryan Mathews. This kid has shown plenty of flash, enough to get fantasy homers and geeks all fired up, but his lack of health has made him a questionable early fantasy draft selection. He’s another stud that could leave you in tears if you put too much value here.

The Disappointments

For all the talk about “it’s their time” and “too much talent” fantasy owners of (QB) Michael Vick, (WR) DeSean Jackson, and (RB) Shonn Greene paid another heavy price if they bought into the early season hype last year. With Vick, you are just treading troubled water with a fantasy quarterback that exposes himself to so much risk when he runs the ball. As long as he can avoid taking hits, he’ll pay off big, but when he doesn’t fantasy owners are left to pick up the tab.

And so goes Vick, goes DeSean Jackson, so long as his head is on straight and he’s in the game. Jackson has become one of today’s Diva receivers, so you just don’t know what you will get. If he’s on, he can bring great reward, but when he’s has six games with 3 or fewer receptions and all less than 50 yards receiving with NO touchdowns, for a number one receiver that spells disappointment Big-Time.

Quietly another disappointing play in 2011 was the Ravens physical wideout, Anquan Boldin who finished outside the top 30 in both yards receiving and receptions. His three touchdowns last season were also his worst showing since his second year (2004) in the league when he registered just one in 10 games. The Ravens play a more conservative run-first style offense and with the emergence of deep threat receiver Torrey Smith, Boldin could continue to see his production diminish.

For all the flare he showed jumping over a defender to score a touchdown in his rookie campaign and looking like the incumbent in the Buccaneers backfield, running back LeGarrette Blount fell far from expectation in his sophomore season. The Tampa Bay runner finished with fewer carries, fewer yards, and one less touchdown in 2011 after starting in 14 games, 7 more than his rookie season. Unfortunately there wasn’t enough hype to carry this back into the top twenty in 2011, as he finished 24^th in rushing and just five scores; not what owners had in mind.

The Busts

It’s never fun kicking a man when he’s down, so rather than kicking many, we’ll just point out the obvious; Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb. Before the 2011 season the Cards inked Kolb to a hefty contract with plenty of green, but saw little return in their investment. Fantasy owners were equally (emotionally) hurt with the former Houston Cougar’s lackluster play in 2011 (ranked 28^th in passing yards. Kolb finished last season just playing in nine games (started 8), throwing just nine touchdowns with eight picks and 1,955 yards. I think owners were looking for a little more from someone who gets to throw to (WR) Larry Fitzgerald every week.

Let this be a warning for the fantasy owners eye-balling quarterback Matt Flynn in Seattle.

There were probably more names that were a whole lot closer to many fantasy owners hearts from a year ago, but I think we have covered the point sufficiently; caveat your emptor. If you are buying into the hype, beware; because every year we are going to have plenty of Busts, Duds, and Disappointments.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 30th, 2011 Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

ANDRE JOHNSON: To Start or Not-To Start
The Texans All-Pro receiver, Andre Johnson (knee) finally made his return to the field last Sunday against the Jaguars, after missing the past six games. His return was far from triumphant (just two catches for 22 yards), but it was a good sign for fantasy owners who will be hoping to see him return to form in week 14 (during the fantasy playoffs). That’s the good news.

The bad news for fantasy owners hoping to play Johnson now and into the playoffs; who will be under center for the Texans? Following their week 10 in over the Buccaneers, the Texans lost their starter Matt Schaub for the season with a foot injury and just when it looked “all systems go” with back up quarterback Matt Lienart under center, he went down in week 12 with a broken collarbone. Now the Texans are left with an inexperienced rookie quarterback at the helm.

We know that rookie T.J Yates (North Carolina) will be taking the snaps on Sunday, but what we don’t know is how this is going to impact the offense and the passing game for fantasy owners. For those of us that have been riding all season long without one of our biggest weapons (Johnson), we could be submitting our lineups on Sunday with one of our biggest guns firing blanks or will he.

I am always the optimist and when I consider how high I drafted Johnson back in August, I can’t imagine sitting him on Sunday and seeing my fantasy team go down without all of my best players. For some it may look like fantasy-suicide, but is it really. On Sunday when Yates entered the game Johnson had only been targeted just once, a play in the first half that was nullified because of a penalty. In the second half Yates would look for #80 three times connecting twice for 22 yards.

While these numbers are nowhere near staggering it should be mentioned also that the Texans where well in control leading 20-10 and did not have to lean much on the pass. So if you project these numbers some, if Yates had started the game and the Jaguars offense been a little more effective in the early going, Johnson may have had a chance to see as many as six to seven targets (maybe a couple more in the early going) throughout the game.

My Analysis: This Sunday’s matchup with the Falcons would appear to pit the Texans up against an offense that could force them to be a little less conservative and have to keep pace. I would not expect a shoot-out of any sort, but the Falcons will certainly be more capable of putting up more than 13 points. Yates is going to have to stand in the pocket and make some throws and from we saw in week 12, he is more than capable of finding AJ. I would not expect a big game necessarily from Johnson, but I would not be surprised to see as many as 7-9 targets would come mean a very decent fantasy out-put; especially with this fantasy beast. Start him!


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FAST FIVE

October 14th, 2011 Friday

Friday’s Fast Five

My Five Calls for Week 6

1. White’s Week to Wreck Havoc
Fantasy owners have been waiting for Atlanta Falcon’s receiver Roddy White to breakout this season. He has 32 receptions (on 54 targets), but just 352 yards receiving and two scores. These are significantly sub-par numbers for our guy, Roddy. With their rookie stud Julio Jones sidelined this week, Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing offense should turn to old-reliable number 84. The Panthers secondary is ranked 15th this season against the pass and they have already been bit for the long ball (40 yards or more) four times this season. Roddy’s numbers are down and this could be the week he picks them up.

2. It’s Back to Basics for the Eagles
The Eagles offense has been riding the arms and legs of quarterback far too much this season and it has not paid off, 10 turnovers and a 1-4 record. With so many weapons, Jackson, McCoy, Maclin, and Celek, I am expecting Reid to reel in Vick some this week and ask his to share the rock more with some of his other playmakers. The Redskins are playing well defensively this season, so the Eagles will need to attack from all angles. McCoy is averaging almost six yards a tote this season and in two games last season he totaled 268 yards of offense; look for a productive Sunday from the league’s 5th leading rusher.

3. Tony Romo Should Breathe Easy on Sunday
This matchup Sunday has all the ingredients of a big passing day for Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo. The Patriots defense is dead last in the league and has given up a ton of yards in the air this season, but the good news doesn’t stop there. In five games this season the Patriots secondary has been victimized for nine touchdowns and 32 pass plays of 20 yards or more. With his best receiving weapon returning this week and tight end Jason Witten underneath, Romo should be a huge fantasy play on Sunday; even in Foxboro.

4. Life Without Andre Could be Hard
The Texans quarterback Matt Schaub could be someone fantasy owners may want to avoid this week. On Sunday the Texans travel to Baltimore to meet Mr. Ray Lewis and the Ravens 8th ranked pass defense. Schaub will take the field without his best weapon and favorite target; expect the Ravens to crowd the line, stuff the run, and turn the Texans into a one dimension offense. Once that happens the dawgs will be turned loose and Schaub could be looking at a long afternoon.

5. Newton Rolling and Could Pick up Speed
The Panthers dynamic and electrifying rookie quarterback Cam Newton has been taking the league by storm and turning his team into a tough matchup week in and week out. Week six should be no different and if you are the Falcons you should be worried. The Falcons 29th ranked pass defense is coming off a beating from week 5 surrendering 396 yards and two touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers and Packers. Now Newton is no Rodgers, and he doesn’t have quite the same compliment of skill players, but he does have plenty of help and enough weapons to do a lot of damage. This matchup could easily turn into a shoot out with Newton providing plenty of fireworks of his own.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 7th, 2011 Friday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Ryan Grant Cleared to Play
The James Starks (210 yards rushing) ERA could be put on hold for a bit with running back Ryan Grant cleared to play Sunday against the Falcons. For the better part of this young season Starks has looked like the dominant runner, until the old Grant showed up in week 3 (92 yards on 17 carries). Last week Grant was held out of action with a bruised kidney injury, but this Sunday he makes his return. His return and presence will affect Starks playing time, so fantasy owners should be advised if rolling with Starks.

Hernandez on track to Play Sunday
The Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez has been practicing and appears to be ready to return to action this week; it was noted that Hernandez has been moving around the team facility without a limp. With the Patriots offense ranked number one in passing if Hernandez (14 receptions, 2 touchdowns) is active on Sunday, he is a must play against the Jets.

Manning’s Fire Keeps Growing
While big brother is sidelined this season with injury, the Giants quarterback Eli Manning is doing his best to carry the family name. In the past three weeks Manning has thrown eight touchdowns with just one pick. With the league’s 14th ranked pass defense (Cardinals) coming to town, Manning is looking to keep his fire burning.

Bradshaw Could see a big load on Sunday
The Giants are likely to be without running back Brandon Jacobs on Sunday when they face the Cardinals, with Jacobs out Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to see a larger work-load. Bradshaw is averaging better than five yards per carry, but has not carried the ball more than 15 times in any game this season; this Sunday that could change.

Daniels Figures to see More Action
With the Texans missing Andre Johnson this week against the Raiders, someone will have to step up in the passing game; tight end Owen Daniels. Daniels has been relatively quiet this season, although he does have 10 receptions over the past two weeks and has scored three times this season. On Sunday Daniels will face the Raiders 22nd ranked pass defense.

Garcon Could Be a Nice Play in Week 5
The Colts offense is beginning to show some signs of life and one of its most lively components is wide receiver Pierre Garcon. In the past two weeks Garcon has seen a total of 18 targets and has benefitted greatly; 218 yards receiving with two touchdowns. This week the Colts will face the Chiefs 15th ranked pass defense and Garcon figures to see plenty of chances in the pass game; he could be a nice flex in week 5.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

September 11TH, 2011 Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

It’s week one of the NFL and plenty to get excited about with some key matchups, many personnel changes and a new season at hand. For fantasy owners there are a lot of questions to pose heading into week one and many answers to be found; is this the year of Stafford, how good is Stafford, what about the Colts’ receivers without Manning, and how much action with Chris Johnson see? These are just a few of many we hope to have answered today.

Watch-list

Today’s fantasy watch-list should also include quarterback Donovan McNabb’s impact in Minnesota, does he have anything left in the tank. There should also be plenty of interest in wide receiver Lee Evan’s arrival in Baltimore; will he be able to stretch the field? Let’s not forget about another subtle change that has fantasy interest, quarterback Matt Hasselbeck in Tennessee; can he bring stability to the position and help revive the Titans offense in a division that now looks up for grabs.

Today’s quick notes:

The Eagles will take their 2011show on the road today visiting the St. Louis Rams and they will have the services of recently acquired wide receiver Steve Smith. It remains to be seen how involved Smith will be coming off of injury, for fantasy owners this is a wait-and-see situation.

The Texans will likely be preparing for a running-back-by-committee game plan as it is being reported that Arian Foster is not expected to play today. With their number one sidelined running backs Derrick Ward and Ben Tate will split carries and the Texans passing game could receive a boost.

The Colts will roll into the 2011 football season with a new field general under center, quarterback Kerry Collins. There’s no question Collins is a capable leader and quarterback, but can he command these troops in Indianapolis to near the same level as Peyton? That’s a tall order for any quarterback and with the change, for fantasy owners you will have to devalue all Colts receiver some until we can see what Collins can bring to the table.


Notable Matchups;

The Rams second year quarterback Sam Bradford is looking to have a very good sophomore season and by all counts he should, but today against the Eagles he will face a stiff test. With the additions of Cullen Jenkins (DL), Nnamdi Asomugha (DB), and Dominique Rogers-Cromartie(DB), this could be one exam he could struggle to find the answers today.

Listening to some of the early reports, it sounds like the Texans will be making plans without running back Arian Foster, but they may not need him. Quarterback Matt Schaub and the Texans will face a depleted Colts offense without Peyton Manning and could be primed to strike; add wide receivers Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and tight end Owen Daniels and the prospects look good.

The Chargers will look to start fast in 2011 and will have tight end Antonio Gates on the field today against the Vikings. Gates has been one of the league’s best tight ends and will present a lot of matchup problems for the Vikings; he could have a big game today.

The Giant’s defense is battered leading into week one and will be tested today by Mike Shanahan’s and his Redskins’ running game. Tim Hightower the team’s new starter should see a heavy dose today and could be very effective. Hightower could also make an impact in the short passing game, remember he caught 63 balls back in 2009.

My Picks Today

My “Four Horsemen”

QB-Matt Stafford; I have him in several leagues and believe he will stay upright this season. He starts in Tampa today and with some nice complimentary weapons and “Megatron” on the perimeter, he should kick start things in high fashion today.

RB-LeSean McCoy; One of the league’s top running backs, but receiving very little fanfare in the early part of the season. I like McCoy out of the backfield a lot today against the Rams.

WR-Roddy White; The talk this preseason has been Julio Jones, but you can bet quarterback Matt Ryan remembers his favorite target (White). With Jones receiving a lot of notoriety, White could remind folks why they had not better forget about him; he could be big today against the Bears.

TE-Owen Daniels; there’s little chance that the colts will be able to stop Andre Johnson, but you know they will have to throw a safety over the top and roll coverage his direction; and when they do tight end Owen Daniels will step up. Lets’ not forget just three seasons ago Daniels caught 70 balls for over 800 yards.

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY FANTASY REPORT

February 19th, 2011 Saturday

The Saturday Fantasy Report

Continuing my look back at the 2010 season, here is my list of the best hands in the NFL from a year ago and over the past couple of season. These are your fantasy wide receivers that will continue to dominate the conversation during the offseason and are expected to be at the top of all fantasy drafts in 2011…..

The Elite Class of the Fantasy Wide Receivers

Roddy White (Falcons)
Without question the Falcons leading receiver over the past several seasons, Roddy White has emerged as one of the leagues very best. Over the past four seasons White’s number have been consistent and very good. Since 2007 he has averaged 92 receptions, 1,280 yards receiving per season while scoring 34 touchdowns. In 2010 White set a career high with yards (1,389 yard receiving) and touchdowns (11); he’ll be at the top of many fantasy drafts this summer.

Andre Johnson (Texans)
Like the Falcon’s leading receiver, the Texan’s wide receiver Andre Johnson has been just as consistent and just as good. Johnson has averaged more than 100 receptions, 1,450 yards receiving, and eight touchdowns over the past three seasons. His yards and catches were down due to injury, but this guys has been a monster over the past couple of season and figures to be huge again in 2011; he’s a top three wide receiver in 2011.

Reggie Wayne (Colts)
The Colts leading receiver has been doing it as well and for as long as anyone in this league. 2010 saw no slow down for Reggie Wayne as he set a career high with 111 receptions; his 1,355 yards receiving was his second best effort of his career. Over the past four seasons Wayne has averaged nearly 100 receptions and better than 1,300 yards receiving while scoring 32 touchdowns. Wayne has been a top 10 fantasy favorite for several seasons and should be again in 2011.

Greg Jennings (Packers)
The Packers number one receiver for the past several seasons was very good once again in 2010, with more than 1,200 yards receiving and 12 touchdowns. He’s been consistent over the past four seasons averaging 69 grabs, over 1,100 yards receiving while scoring 35 touchdowns. His numbers are solid and entering his sixth season, he’s a top five fantasy receiver grab in 2011.

Just a step below….

Calvin Johnson (Lions)
Megatron has been a talent in this league since his arrival; in just four short seasons Johnson has already scored 33 times. With just a little more time to marinate and more consistency at the quarterback position he’ll achieve the elite fantasy stud he is destined to achieve; for now Megatron is still a top 10 wide receiver pick in most fantasy drafts.

Dwayne Bowe (Chiefs)
The Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe had a big 2010 season setting a career high with 1,162 yards receiving and 15 touchdowns. Bowe rebounded with his strong 2010 campaign after a disappointing 2009 season. He has shown strong play in the past and looked very good last season; he’ll figure into a top 20 fantasy wide receiver slot in 2011.

On The Rise

Hakeem Nicks (Giants)
The Giants second year wide out had a big coming out season finishing with 79 grabs, over 1,000 yards receiving and 11 touchdowns. Nicks was good in his rookie season and a whole lot better his second time around. His third season could be a charm; after a strong 2010 campaign, Nicks looks like a top 10 fantasy wide receiver candidate in 2011.

Stevie Johnson (Bills)
The Bills young receiver had a breakout 3rd season finishing 2010 with 82 receptions, over 1,000 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns. If the Bills can sustain some stability at the quarterback position with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Johnson could be in for another good season. He looks to be a top 20 fantasy receiver in 2011.

Mike Wallace (Steelers)
The Steelers big play threat catapulted his fantasy stock a big step closer to the top tier. His 1,200 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns make him an easy fantasy favorite to go early in 2011. Look for Wallace to be a top 10 fantasy receiver this summer.


Just my take

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY FANTASY WATCH

December 31st, 2010, Friday

Friday Fantasy Watch

Shonn Greene: Greene set to get some work

The Jets could be giving some players the day off this Sunday, but running back Shonn Greene does not appear to be one. With reports of running back LaDanian Tomlinson resting on Sunday Greene figures to get the brunt of the load against the Bills.

The Bills are ranked dead last against the run and while he has been splitting carries down the stretch, Greene has actually been the more effective runner in the Jets backfield. Greene rushed for 70 yards on 12 carries last week against the Bears with a touchdown and could see a more productive afternoon this Sunday.

Sunday’s projections against the Bills.
(20 carries, 115 yards rushing, 2 catches, 15 yards receiving, one touchdown)

Matt Forte: All Signs Indicate A Day Off

The Bears have been giving some of their back-up running backs extra reps in practice this week indicating that Forte could share more of the load this week. Forte has been the primary ball carrier this season, but with the division locked up and not much more to gain it would make sense to rest some of the starters.

Forte is having a productive season and has been particularly strong down the stretch, but if Sunday’s contest against the Packers is decided early it’s very possible Forte could see an early exit.

Sunday’s projections against the Packers.
(12 carries, 45 yards rushing, one catch, 10 yards receiving)

Jacoby Jones: Could Be In For Another Strong Outing

The Texans are likely to be without wide receiver Andre Johnson (ankle) this Sunday against the Jaguars. With Johnson listed as doubtful, wide receiver Jacoby Jones is expected to start in his place. Jones has started six games this season and has 46 receptions this season; including 17 in his last three games.

Jones started last Sunday in place of the injured Johnson and turned in a solid performance with five catches for 115 yards on seven targets. This week the Texans meet the Jacksonville and Jones will line up against the leagues 26th ranked pass defense. The Texans are playing for pride this week and will likely ride their sixth ranked passing offense; expect Jones to be a big part of the passing attack.

Sunday’s projections against the Jagaurs.
(5 catches, 105 yards passing, one touchdown)

Just my take.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: MY WEEKLY SURVIVAL

December 30th, 2010, Thursday

My Weekly Survivors

It looks like we picked the worst time to have a bad week in our season long chase for a Suicide fantasy football championship. With the season winding down and fewer chances to make a move to the top last week was one to forget.

Week 16 did not go so well with a few of our picks tanking big time. With Marion Barber returning to the field last week, Tashard Choice saw very few touches and totaled only two points. On Monday night Marques Colston turned in one of his quietest games with just two catches for 21 yards (two points). Ben Watson kept our hard luck with the tight ends going another week with a poor fantasy outing last Sunday against the Ravens (2 points). The only highlights of our week 16 team picks were quarterback Matt Schaub (16 points) and place kicker Neil Rackers (11 points).

This week we enter the season finale with all hopes of a run at the top now a distant memory. With one lineup left to submit a lineup and currently residing in the 8th spot, a top five finish still looks possible. This week will offer some unique challenges with the possibility of some players sitting (resting), but like every week we’ll just have to dig a little deeper to find this week’s stars on Sunday.

Here are my picks for week 17….

QB-Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers still have a lot left to play for, so Big Ben should be a busy man on Sunday making plays. In their first meeting versus the Browns back in week 6, Roethlisberger passed for 257 yards and tossed three touchdowns. The Steelers have won five of their last six and a win on Sunday will deliver a division title; expect Big Ben to play a big part.
(Projected: 20 fantasy points/ 250 yards passing, two touchdowns, 25 rushing yards)

RB- Shonn Greene, New York Jets
The Jets have clinched a playoff berth, but have no shot at the division. With Sunday’s meeting with the Bills having very little impact on their playoff seeding it sounds like several Jets could be rested; including LaDanian Tomlinson. With LT likely to see the bench on Sunday it could be a very productive day for running back Shonn Greene (766 yards rushing in 2010).
(Projected: 17 fantasy points/ 105 yards rushing, 2 catches, 10 yards receiving, one touchdown)

RB-Ryan Matthews, San Diego Chargers
The Chargers’ running back is healthy again, running well, and has seen his most extensive action of this season over the past three weeks. Mathews is averaging 16 touches per game in his last three games and 3.9 yards per carry. With Mike Tolbert ruled out is should be all Mathews against the Broncos’ 31st ranked run defense.
(Projected: 17 fantasy points/ 85 yards rushing, 3 catches, 30 yards receiving, one touchdown)

WR-Mario Manningham, New York Giants
The Giants wide receiver Mario Manningham has been on fire over the past couple of weeks and could be even bigger with Hakeem Nicks not expected to play this Sunday. Manningham has posted consecutive 100 yard receiving games and this week he’ll face the Redskins 31st ranked pass defense in week 17; he looks like a good bet to make it three straight.
(Projected: 17 fantasy points/ 7 catches, 110 yards, one touchdown)

WR-Jacoby Jones, Houston Texans
The Texans have the sixth ranked passing offense in the league making their receivers look very attractive in week 17 against the Jaguars 26th ranked pass defense. With Andre Johnson inactive last week, wide receiver Jacoby Jones got the nod to start and turned in strong performance with five catches for 115 yards. If Johnson sits, Jones looks to be a good play against a weak secondary. If Johnson decides to go, he would be the preferred play here.
(Projected: 14 fantasy points/ 4 catches, 85 yards, one touchdown)

TE-Kellen Winslow Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winslow leads the team in catches this season with 63 and is coming off a big Sunday with seven grabs and two scores. With the Bucs still in the post season hunt, quarterback Josh Freeman will be sure to look his way often. In their first matchup this season against the Saints, Winslow did not total a lot of yards, but was targeted 10 times and caught 7 passes. He figures to be busy in the rematch.
(Projected: 14 fantasy points/ 6 catches, 80 yards, one touchdown)

PK-Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts rank 3rd in the league in scoring this season averaging just over 27points per contest, but at home in their last two games have totaled 69 points. With the Titans in town this Sunday, the Colts look like a good bet to post another 30 point effort. Vinatieri has been gold this season making 23 of 25 field goals and he is perfect at home on 13 tries.
(Projected: 12 fantasy points/ three field goals, three extra points)

Last week’s results

(Week 16 Points=41, Total Season Points=1,192, 8th place)
QB-Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
RB- Tashard Choice, Dallas Cowboys
RB-Mike Tolbert, San Diego Chargers
WR-Santana Moss, Washington Redskins
WR-Marques Coltson, New Orleans Saints
TE-Ben Watson, Cleveland Browns
PK-Neil Rackers, Houston Texans