FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 9th 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

(Week 5)

My Takes



Quarterback Sam Bradford; it's sounding very much like Sam will go tonight against the Bears. The matchup is never favorable in the friendly confines of Soldier Field and last season Bradford was ineffective in a 20-10 loss. But that was about a year ago and an old Bradford. The new Bradford brings with him some great weapons and an even greater understanding of the offense. It's not going to be a breakout performance, but rather a solid one for Sam returning from injury. Feel confident if you have to ride Sam tonight, he's a nice bye week fill.

Running backs Latavius Murray & Jerrick McKinnon; the loss of rookie running back Dalvin Cook hurts, but with Bradford back under center the combination of Murray and McKinnon should fill just fine. Murray is expected to log the majority of carries and if he's close to 100 percent he should be able to provide some of the in-between the tackle presence the running game was missing last season; he's a fade option at running back this week. McKinnon will likely play his regular 3rd down pass catching role, but he's not fantasy worthy tonight.

Wide receivers Stefon Diggs & Adam Thielen; these two are the Vikings wonder twins. Both run great routes, both have great hands, and with Bradford under center, both are worth starting. Also, only a mother can tell these two apart. Unfortunately for the Bears secondary (ranked 4th in the NFL), they don't have any mom's playing safety, so it'll be a long night for them. Diggs and Thilen should both be started.

Tight end Kyle Rudolph; with his starting quarterback returning this week, Rudolph is back in play. Now fantasy owners will need to hold their water as he's only a backend TE1 this week. The Bears are pretty good against the tight end spot, but I like Rudolph as a great candidate for a red zone score.

Quarterback Mitchell Turbisky; the Bears roll out the Trubisky era tonight, but don't expect a welcoming reception from the Vikings defense tonight. It's likely going to be a long night for the rookie, but more importantly for the Bears among the inevitable mistakes he'll make, they are hoping to see a spark on the offensive side of the ball. Trubisky is not worth starting or owning at this time, but tonight it will be interesting to see what he can do.

Running backs Jordan Howard & Tarik Cohen; unfortunately for Thunder and lightning and fantasy owners, the weather's been pretty calm the past couple of weeks and the forecast for tonight does not look stormy. The Vikings are ranked 2nd versus the run, so fantasy owners should temper their expectations. The only good thing to count on, with a rookie quarterback you will see a lot of run and a lot of short passes. Despite the terrible matchup, expect volume for both Howard and Cohen; they'll both be serviceable tonight.

Wide receiver Kendall Wright; it's another one of those cases of Trubisky has to throw the ball to somebody. Wright has emerged as the likely go-to candidate leading the team with 14 receptions for 154 yards, and a touchdown. It's not a promising matchup tonight, especially with the expected growing pains with a rookie quarterback making his first start. If you are desperate, Wright will be a tough start tonight.

Tight end Zach Miller; with a rookie quarterback under the center the expectation is the tight end becomes his security blanket. That is likely the rule to follow here to tonight. Miller (30th ranked TE in PPR) has only 13 grabs this season, but may get caught up in a lot of check downs and short routes to keep his quarterback clean. What this likely means for Miller is a busy night for few yards, but he could salvage things with the potential for a red zone grab; but keep in mind Miller has zero touchdowns in four games.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 7th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 5 QB Rankings

(does not include Thursday’s game)

The bye weeks have started and it’s time to look deeper each week for starting help and depth at all of your positions. With names like Brees and Ryan off this week, a lot of owners will be looking to a backup solution or the waiver wire for Week 5.

Deshaun Watson is my popular pick for week 5. He doesn’t have a great matchup, but what I like is Watson and his ability to make plays outside the pocket with his feet. He’s the leading rusher for quarterbacks after 4 weeks and the Chiefs have trouble keeping the QB contained. Watson is my No.4 fantasy QB this week.

Looking down the tree a little further, reports are suggesting Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford will play. Last season Bradford led the league with a record setting 71.6 completion percentage and this season he opened his campaign completing 84 percent of his passes back in week 1. If he’s healthy and returns Monday night, Bradford is my No.12 fantasy QB this week and worthy of starting consideration against a Bears 17th ranked secondary.

The Rams quarterback Jared Goff comes in at No.13 and should be considered a possible start this week for owners looking to fill a bye week need. Goff has played very well this season and is the No.11 fantasy QB through the first 4 weeks. And while the Seahawks (the Rams Week 5 opponent) present a formidable challenge this week, the Rams are a well balanced offense this season (4th ranked passing, 16th ranked rushing) and the highest scoring team at 35.5 points per game. Goff and company will also present many challenges for the Seahawks 15th ranked defense overall.

Here are my Week 5 QB rankings;

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Dak Prescott

3. Carson Wentz

4. Deshaun Watson

5. Matthew Stafford

6. Carson Palmer

7. Russell Wilson

8. Eli Manning

9. Ben Roethlisberger

10. Alex Smith

11. Cam Newton

12. Sam Bradford

13. Jared Goff

14. Marcus Mariota

15. Philip Rivers

16. Jay Cutler

17. Brian Hoyer

18. Tyrod Taylor

19. Andy Dalton

20. Josh McCown

These are my Top-20 rankings for Week 5.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 6th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

What I Learned from Week 4

(Quick Takes) 

Cutler and Dolphins offense in trouble.

After watching their awful performance in Week 4 against the Saints, you get the sense the Dolphins offense is in really trouble if things don't start clicking quick. Cutler was pulled out of retirement because he knew the offense and had familiarity with the system. With receivers like Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker and running back Jay Ajayi, this team wasn't necessarily expected to be better, but should have been just as good. So far this has not been the case and this week they are home with Tennessee rolling into town. Last week the Titans were wiped out by the Texans surrendering 57 points. If the Dolphins are going to get things right, if fantasy owners are going to be able to trust players like Ajayi, Landry, and Parker, this is the week to make it all happen.

Texans have something special brewing.

I've been talking this up all week and if you haven't heard me, you just haven't been listening. Yes, it's a little early to making such bold statements about Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson, but the kid is playing special. Through 4 games he's been special. Watson is the No.7 fantasy QB, ahead of names like Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Marcus Mariota. He's 2-1 as a starter, making plays, throwing for 7 touchdowns, while running for 2 more. He's a rookie, so mistakes will come, but the resiliency this kid has already shown, he's making me a believer every Sunday.

Vikings receivers need Sam Bradford

When the season opened, back in week one the Vikings offense and passing game burst onto the scene with Bradford and his talented pass catchers leading the way. Diggs (No.1 in PPR) and Thielen (No.13 in PPR) are still among the top pass receiving fantasy options this season, but their numbers tailed off a bit last week and fantasy owners have to be getting the sense they really need Bradford back. If these two and tight end Kyle Rudolph are going to run with the fantasy big dogs, they need their starting quarterback. Bradford knows the system well, he's efficient with the ball, and deadly accurate; their numbers get a bump when Sam plays.

Are the Falcons Smoke and Mirrors?

To put it simply, the Falcons are 3-1, but could easily be 1-3 after surviving week 1 & 3 scares against the Bears and Lions. Last season the Falcons were a dominate team, lighting up the scoreboard. This season seems different. The team is still averaging 26 points per game (ranks 6th in the league), but they are definitely doing it in different ways. Matt Ryan had elevated his play a year ago to elite status, but this season he's just the 22nd fantasy QB and as would be expected wide receiver Julio Jones is the No.25 fantasy WR (in PPR). These are fall below fantasy owner expectations. Are the Falcons as good as advertised and will Ryan's numbers eventually reflect or are they telling now and the worse is to come? We'll see.

Is something wrong with Big Ben?

Big Ben has never really been a Top-5 fantasy QB. Since 2011 he has only finished inside the Top-10 once, in 2013 when he was the No.5 fantasy QB. Despite the lack of top finishes, fantasy owners have to be frustrated with Roethlisberger's current No.21 ranking. In four games he's only topped 250 yards passing once, and has just two multiple touchdowns games; two games of two. These are not quite the fantasy numbers owners are looking for. Historically Big Ben has always played well at home versus the road, so even though it's Jacksonville up next owners are hoping playing at home this Sunday will help him to get things going.

The Giants run game stuck in reverse.

After four games, it's pretty apparent the Giants running is non-existent. The Giants are the 30th ranked run offense this season and their 3.2 yards per carry average ranks near the bottom of the league. The prime culprit for these poor numbers is running back Paul Perkins. He's averaging less than 2 yards per carry this season and has just 61 rushing yards through 4 games. A starter to begin the year, Perkins (ribs) who is likely sidelined this week has fallen off the fantasy map and running backs Wayne Gallman and Orleans Darkwa will now try to resuscitate the Giants lifeless run game.

Cousins and offense starting to show something.

There's no doubt, had Terrelle Pryor hung onto that touchdown throw late in the game and the Redskins came out on top, the talk on Monday would have been look out for Washington. This was the second straight game for Cousins where he played very well. In a tough road matchup Cousins was 14 of 24 for 220 yards passing and two scores (which could have easily been three). He also added 38 yards on 7 scrambles/runs. If the Redskins can get some of their pieces like Jordan Reed and Robert Kelley, healthy and back soon, then lookout because these guys could start to heat up real fast.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 6th 2017

Friday evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five

5 Things to Watch This Week

Week 4 was an exciting week filled with brilliant performances (Deshaun Watson’s 5 touchdowns), more disappointment (DeMarco Murray just 31 yards rushing and Dolphins offense zero touchdowns), lots of big plays (Bilal Powell’s 75-yards scamper for six), and plenty of excitement to catch your attention and have you looking forward to Week 5. Here are the 5 things to watch this Week;

Deshaun versus the Chiefs defense.

The Texans rookie quarterback has been brilliant the last three weeks averaging over 23.0 fantasy points per game (the No.3 fantasy QB during this stretch) and leading the Texans to two wins. In his three starts Watson has accounted for 8 total touchdowns; 6 pass, 2 rush. The Chiefs defense has been pretty good, but a stat to note and something to watch on Sunday, Watson’s mobility and ability to run. Watson leads all quarterbacks with 148 yards rushing and the Chiefs have allowed 93, 3rd most to opposing quarterbacks. The Chiefs will need to be careful when in coverage, because Watson has the ability to pull the ball down and take off.

Jay Cutler and Dolphins offense.

After a dismal week 4 performance it’s going to be real interesting for fantasy owners to see what the Dolphins do this week. With players like Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker, Jay Ajayi, and Julius Thomas, you expect quarterback Jay Cutler and company to product more than zero points. Well there matchup could not have been dialed up any better with Tennessee coming to town. Last week the Titans defense was toasted for 57 points allowed and 445 yards of offense. Landry, Parker, and Ajayi and fantasy household names, so owners will be watching to see if their players can cash in on a reeling defense.

LeSean McCoy and the Bills on the road this week.

The Bills have been on a roll this season, winning three of their first four games, including wins over the Broncos and Falcons. When you think of the Bills, you immediately think Shady and his running prowess. The funny thing is Shady has been doing it more with his hands, than his legs. His rushing numbers are down at the moment (16th ranked fantasy RB in PPR), but he’s elevated his receiving game this season with 21 receptions through 4 weeks (on a pace for 80+ catches). McCoy’s career high in catches is 78 back in 2010. Shady has a tough matchup against a stingy Bengals defense, but could once again have success as a receiver out of the backfield against a defense that has allowed the 10th most receptions to opposing running backs.

Rams-Seahawks matchup will be telling.

This game is going to be a good one to follow this Sunday. The fact it’s a divisional matchup is enough to capture interest, but the direction these two teams have been taking of late is the catalyst that will have many looking in with great interest. The Rams are 3-1 and through 4 weeks, their offense has looked leaps and bounds ahead of last season. On the other side, the Seahawks seem to be in scramble mode pasting and patching things together on the offense side. Poor line play, a struggling running game, and injuries to key skill positions have forced Wilson (the No.3 fantasy QB) to carry the load (41 pass attempts through 4 games). Can Wilson continue to be the offense for Seattle and can the Rams quarterback Jared Goff and his offense prove they are legit. A strong performance on both sides would prove their cases.

Sam Bradford’s return under center.

Quite simply, with Bradford calling the signals in week one, the Vikings offense looked formidable. Since then, the offense and receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen at times have been a mere shell of themselves. The reports are indicating that Bradford is on track to start Monday night. It’s a divisional matchup with the Bears on the road, so you know it’s not going to be a cakewalk at Soldier Field. The Bears will present a respectable challenge, but with Bradford back under center fantasy owners can feel better about their chances rolling out Diggs, Thielen, and tight end Kyle Rudolph.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 5th, 2017

Thursday Late Night Edition

My Week 4 Recap

(Week Four Fallout)

For Vikings fans, it was fun while it lasted, although it didn't last very long before quarterback Case Keenum came back to earth. In Week 3 Keenum was brilliant, but this past Sunday against a tough Lions defense he did not have the same success. This is something fantasy owners are going to have to realize going forward, with starter Sam Bradford sidelined the value of players like Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph will take a hit from time to time.

Week 4 also offered some eye-opening performances to take note, like the play of rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson. Coming off a solid week 3 performance against the Patriots, Watson doubled down in week 5 with a huge 5-touchdown (4 pass, 1 rush) showing. DeMarco Murray provided less eye-opening and more mystery as his 2017 season continued it's flutter. He's had only one start worthy game in four tries; fantasy owners are scratching their heads.

The Giants running game situation is not one that has been envious thus far this season. One of it's components that been a disappointment has been Paul Perkins. Through 4 games Perkins has been awful averaging just 2 yards per rushing attempt and totaling just  61 yards rushing; he's completely off the fantasy radar.

A concern to watch for fantasy owners is the Redskins wide receiver Jamison Crowder. Last season Crowder finished 2016 as the No.31 fantasy WR (in PPR) with 67 catches for 847 yards and 7 touchdowns. Through 4 games he's currently outside the Top-50 and in week four he was targeted just one time. Considering where you took Crowder in your draft, there's reason to be concerned.

This is just some of the fallout from week 4, running through the slate of games here's a few more observations;

#1. Big Ben and Martavis out of sync.

Through 4 weeks, these two have yet to really hook up and blow up as they did in 2015. Bryant has been limited to no more than 3 catches (twice this season) per game while only topping 50 yards receiving once; 91 yards in week 2. Big Ben on the other has not caught fire either. In four games Big Ben has yet to pass for 300 yards and has multiple touchdowns in only two games this season, the last one in week 2. Fantasy owners are waiting for these two to get cooking and this Sunday they may be again waiting since the two will face Jacksonville.

#2. Is Broncos RB Jamaal Charles underused?

The Broncos don't have any problems in their backfield right now, with CJ Anderson holding down the fort, Jamaal Charles healthy, and Devontae Booker returning from injury, they have depth and experience. One noticable statistic that is hard to avoid, is the yards per touch; currently Charles at 5.4 yards per dominates this category more than a half yard better than CJ. The other important stat is CJ has 83 touches to Charles 36. Jam is healthy and at times looks explosive. With Booker healthy, it may be time to give Charles some run and see what he can do with the reins or at least with an extended look. Big plays is one of the elements the Broncos offense is lacking.

#3. Palmer back in play with his receiving cast.

With both wide receivers JJ Nelson and John Brown returning to action in Week 4, Palmer passed for over 300 yards for the third straight week in a row. One element missing from his game right now is touchdowns; Palmer has just six in four games (a little on the low side). He's got a prime matchup this week agains the Eagles, so Palmer is definitely in play.

#4. Giovani Bernard needs more touches in Cincy.

Quite simply, with the Bengals offense in flux there's been a search at the running back position for production and consistency. Through the first quarter of the season, the Bengal may still be looking. Right now the lead horse in the backfield is rookie running back Joe Mixon with 63 touches is ranked as the 33rd fantasy RB in PPR. Running back Giovani Bernard has 26 touches this season and is currently the 28th ranked fantasy RB. Giovani needs more touches.

#5. In case you don't know, Kamara is the Saint to own.

If you been watching or listening to the buzz out of New Orleans, then you know the favorite in the Saints backfield is rookie Alvin Kamara. Through the teams first 4 games, Kamara leads the backfield in yards per carry average (5.53), receiving targets (28), receiving yards (147), and touchdowns (2). Kamara is also the 19th ranked fantasy RB in PPR, as compared to starter Mark Ingram ranked 26th. Kamara is the one to own in New Orleans.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 23rd 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 3 Injury Takes

TE-Jimmy Graham; the Seahawks tight end has not been effective to start the season, but that could be more about the O-line play, than his usage and effectiveness. Graham is questionable for Sunday, but expected to play. It’s always tough to sit Jimmy since he’s always a red-zone favorite, so he’ll be a risky bottom-line TE1 this week.

WR-JJ Nelson; the Cardinals best receiver right now is nursing a hamstring injury. He’s expected to play Monday, but this may be a tough situation for owners to navigate with the Monday kickoff. Nelson has been brilliant to start the season, if he’s a go he’s a must play.

WR-Phillip Dorsett; the Patriots newest receiver is questionable for Sunday, but expected to play. Dorsett has been limited with a knee injury. He’s still pretty new to the offense, so this may not have a big fantasy impact at this time, but he’s already shown some flash and should be on fantasy radars.

WR-Chris Hogan; 7-11 is trending towards playing on Sunday and he should be in all lineups on Sunday. He’s definitely one of Brady’s more trusted options and should fare well coming off a week 2 stat line of 5/78/1.

TE-Jared Cook; the Raiders tight end is off the injury report and should be good to go against the Redskins. Cook is one of my preferred starts of the week and should be considered a startable low-end TE1 this week.

RB-Melvin Gordon; the Chargers running back is questionable, but expected to play Sunday. That’s good news for fantasy owners, although it was never expected that he wouldn’t play. Gordon is off to slow start on the ground, but the versatile back has maintained his value with his pass-catching skills. He should be a Top-15 RB this week once again.

WR-Jordy Nelson; the Packers receiver has been practicing in full this week and is expected to play. With his teammate Cobb likely out this week, Jordy is a strong WR1 play this week

WR-Randall Cobb; the Packers receiver is doubtful for Sunday and should be taken out of your lineups. With Cobb out, Nelson, Montgomery, Bennett, and Adams should see a bump in value.

TE-Evan Engram; the rookie  has been removed from the injury report this week and will play He’s got a good matchup this week and red-zone favorite this week. Facing the Eagles defense on Sunday, he’s a likely candidate to score this week.

DEF-Vontae Davis; Davis is going to miss week 3. With the Colts offense stuck in neutral and their best corner on the sideline, the Browns passing offense will have time and should be able to operate. Give Rashard Higgins, Duke Johnson Jr, and Isaiah Crowell all a bump in value this week.

WR-Amari Cooper; the Raiders wide receiver has been removed from the team’s injury report. Cooper has been somewhat quiet through two weeks, but he’s healthy and ready to go. A favorable matchup this week, Cooper should be in your lineup on Sunday.

WR-Kendall Wright; the Bears wide receiver is off the team’s injury report and ready to go for Sunday. He’s been the most active receiver in a stagnant Bears passing game with 14 targets through two weeks, but this Sunday could find it tough to get open. He’s a risky play that should be avoided.

RB-DeMarco Murray; the Titans running back is a little banged up with a hamstring injury. It sounds like Murray will be available for Sunday, but based on what we’ve seen thus far from him and the fact he’s dealing with an injury his workload could be lightened significantly this week.

RB-Derrick Henry; With Murray dealing with a hamstring issue and his slow start, dial up Henry this week. The former Crimson Tide is likely to see the bulk of the carries this week.

RB-Jordan Howard; the Bears running back is off the injury report, so he’s good to go for Sunday. It’s a tough start for Howard against the Steelers, so tread lightly with your expectations.

WR-John Brown; the speedy receiver has been ruled out for a second consecutive week with a quad injury. He can be dropped at this time, until his health turns for the better.

TE-Rob Gronkowski; the Patriots tight end has been trending all week toward playing, so it sounds like owners can expect to see the Gronk on Sunday. As long as he’s on the field, Gronk is a must play

TE-Jordan Reed; the Redskins tight end is looking like a Game-time call for Sunday night. The offense has been stagnate after two weeks and Reed is a risky play, owners are better off looking at alternative options like Jared Cook or Jack Doyle this week.

QB-Sam Bradford; the Vikings signal caller has been shelved for week 3. His biggest impact is the value hit his receivers will take once again. Thielen, Diggs, and Rudolph all drop in value, making all tough starts. Diggs and Thielen are salvageable in larger leagues, Rudolph may be the one fantasy casualty that sits this week.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega