FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 18th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Week 6 Fantasy Fallout

More Luck Needed.

This may not be what fantasy owners and Colts fans want to hear, but we are now heading into the 7th week of the season and quarterback Andrew Luck is still weeks away for seeing the field. At what point do you get into the season where you have to think about the long term and shut Luck down? At 2-4 through 6 weeks and a tough week 7 showdown with the Jaguars, the Colts season with Luck is getting farther and farther away. Fantasy owners will have to start facing the awful truth; they’re going to need lots more luck if Luck doesn’t return this season.

Chiefs Defense: Not What You Think?

After 6 weeks of action, there are no more undefeated teams left in the NFL as the Chiefs fell Sunday to the Steelers. And how did this happen? Maybe it’s because the Chiefs defense is not what you think. When they were 5-0 and getting ready to hit cruise control with the Steelers coming to town, what we saw on Sunday and found out, this team is not so formidable. In reality, their weakest link could be their defense, ranked 29th in total yards allowed. Did the Steelers 13th ranked offense in total yards expose them or am I just over-reacting?

Broncos Offense: A Fantasy Mess.

Being the Broncos fan that I am, after watching this offense seemingly struggle week after week a trend starts to emerge; their offense is a fantasy mess with Siemian under center. Is it the play-calling or the execution, hard to tell, maybe it’s both. One thing for sure is, the offense has produced just 10, 16, and 16, since their week 2 explosion for 42 points. Averaging just 14 points the past three weeks is not going to get it done for Broncos fans and fantasy owners. Something needs to be fixed (in the pass game or the run game) or this funk could continue and fantasy owners will be forced to start looking at sitting or trading players like Demaryius Thomas and CJ Anderson.

Packers Offense Facing A Big Change.

Everyone knows about the injury and most who follow football understand the importance of the starting quarterback to his offense. But when you are talking about the Packers starter Aaron Rodgers and his offense, there may not be anyone more important. Rodgers is definitely the engine that makes the Packers offense run. The first reaction is with Aaron OUT, all Packers players fantasy value across the board takes a huge hit. This may make sense, also the run game could become prominent (enter Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery), but the other wild-card to consider is backup quarterback Brett Hundley is no stranger to the offense and his supporting cast. On Sunday he was thrown to the wolves and one week is not going to be enough time to make a 180 degree difference, but as he gets in sync with the offense and the game slows down for him (and it will), we’ll have to see what he can do. So, no need to panic yet.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 25th 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Week 3 Sunday Heroes

Not the Usual Suspects

Week 3 was filled with a lot offense, but not for the usual suspects. On Sunday was saw a lot of new faces in the headlines and that’s just fine with fantasy owners (as long as they keep it up);

The newest Suspect in the huddle for week 3 was the Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett. After getting his first start of the season last week, Brissett turns into a playmaker this week accounting for three scores and leading the Colts to a Week 3 win over the Browns. The impact was the re-emergence of TY Hilton, which is great news for fantasy owners.

Perhaps an even bigger surprise than the Colts week 3 win, was the play of Vikings quarterback Case Keenum. The surprise was not his playing well, but rather how well. Keenum completed near 76 percent of his passes on his way to 369 yards and three touchdowns with no picks. Fantasy owners of the Vikings receivers can breathe a sigh of relief going forward; the passing game appears to be in capable hands.

QB-Case Keenum: 25 of 33, 369 pa yds, 3 Tds

QB-Jacoby Brissett: 17 of 24, 259 pa yds, 1 Td, 2 ru Tds

QB-Blake Bortles: 20 of 31, 244 pa yds, 4 Tds

The Redskins have found themselves one heck of a gem in running back Chris Thompson; 188 total yards on Sunday night. The Redskins 3rd down scat back not only has good hands for the passing game (13 receptions), but a nose for the big play (4 touchdowns in 2017). He’s a PPR darling and touchdown machine at the moment and should be in lineups every week.

The Browns Duke Johnson has alse emerged as a viable weekly PPR play with 11 receptions for 160 yards for the season. In week 3 the former Miami Hurricane (where’s he from?) showed off his skills totaling 104 yards of offense with a touchdown. He’s steady flex in PPR formats.

RB-Chris Thompson: 38 ru yds, 6 rec, 150 rec yds, 1 Td

RB-Duke Johnson: 23 ru yds, 6 rec, 81 rec yds, 1 Td

RB-Chris Carson: 34 ru yds, 2 rec, 18 rec yds, 1 Td

RB-Jamaal Charles: 56 ru yds, 1 Td

It was worth mentioning the re-emergence of TY Hilton, especially since fantasy owners will once again be without quarterback Andrew Luck (ruled Out) through week 4. Hilton showcased his big play skills with an exceptional 61 yard touchdown reception and showed everyone he’s still very relevant (fantasy and reality) even without Luck.

The name to watch on this list is the Chargers Travis Benjamin. He’s a homerun hitter that Philip Rivers likes to go to deep. On Sunday the two showcased this a bit. There’s just so much talent at the WR skill position (not enough targets to go around), consistency will be the only issue with Benjamin.

Ty Hilton: 7 rec, 153 rec yds, 1 Td

Sterling Shepard: 7 rec, 133 rec yds, 1 Td

Rishard Matthews: 6 rec, 87 rec yds, 1 Td

Taylor Gabriel: 5 rec, 79 rec yds, 1 Td

Geronimo Allison: 6 rec, 122 rec yds, 0 Tds

Travis Benjamin: 5 rec, 105 rec yds

Perhaps the shocker on Sunday came the earliest with the Week 3 arrival of Jaguars tight end Marcedes Lewis (a forgotten man in fantasy). The Jags tight end had yet to catch a pass to start the 2017 season and the last time he did catch a pass, dated back to week 11 of the 2016 season (only caught 2 balls that day). That all change on Sunday, Lewis was targeted five times, catching four balls, three for touchdowns; that’s one way to announce yourself to the fantasy world. The Jags offense is very sporadic, so this week 3 performance is not something fantasy owners can hope for to repeat itself anytime soon.

Marcedes Lewis: 4 rec, 62 rec yds, 3 Tds

Ryan Griffin: 5 rec, 61 rec yds, 1 Td

Vernon Davis: 5 rec, 58 rec yds, 1 Td

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 16th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 2 Injury Takes

WR-Golden Tate; the Lions wide receiver has been removed from the team’s injury report this week. Tate is all systems go and should be started with confidence.

QB-Sam Bradford; the Vikings quarterback is trending towards starting Sunday and is expected to play. With Bradford under center, owners can start the Vikings receivers as expected. It’s a tough matchup, so temper your expectations.

WR-Odell Beckham Jr; recent reports suggest OBJ is expected to play. Don’t set your expectations high, but if OBJ is playing owners can’t afford to have him on the bench. It’s a tough call, but the Giants won’t roll him out unless he can be effective.

WR-Jarvis Landry; the Dolphins receiver is also trending toward playing, but owners will have to wait until the afternoon inactives to confirm. Landry is a middle of the road play this week, in my opinion. If safer options are available, that may be the better road traveled. If he’s healthy and a go, he’s likely a better play in PPR formats.

WR-John Brown; the Cardinals speedy receiver has been ruled out for Week 2. Brown is still dealing with quad issues, but his absence will only open more opportunities for Fitzgerald, wide receiver JJ Nelson, and wide receiver Jauron Brown (0 targets in week 1). Nelson (6 targets in week 1) is the play for me this week.

RB-Devontae Booker; the Broncos running back is expected to miss his second week with the wrist injury that’s kept him sidelined. Even healthy he’s likely buried on the depth chart behind Anderson and Charles. The only impact here is, this may give Charles more window to carve out a larger role in the Broncos running game.

WR-Andrew Luck; the Colts are still without their signal caller and there’s no definitive timetable for a return. As long as Luck is sidelined, you have to downgrade the receivers. Only Hilton holds any fantasy relevance, and even his is risky at best (for now).

WR-Danny Amendola; the Patriots will be without Amendola who suffered a concussion in week 1. Brady owners won’t have to worry, he’s still got plenty of weapons. With Amendola sidelined Cooks and Gronkowski will see their normal share, but wide receiver Chris Hogan could see an uptick of involvement on Sunday.

WR-Eric Decker; the Titans wide receiver is off the injury report which is good new for fantasy owners, but he’s probably still a wait and see. Decker saw 8 targets in week one, but only snagged 3; owners should probably wait until we see more production before rolling him out. He’s a very low-end flex option at best this week.

WR-Jamison Crowder; the Redskins receiver is practicing full and expected to play on Sunday. Crowder had a poor showing in week one, but may have been slowed by injury. He’s healthy and should be ready to go, but the offense looks out of sync. I might look elsewhere if you have options, but he should be worth starting in PPR formats.

RB-Thomas Rawls; the Seahawks will have Rawls for Sunday who has been removed from the team’s injury report. With Rawls available, the Seahawks backfield is a cluster-bunch and hard read. It will be a tough call for fantasy owners to navigate and might be best avoided until head coach Pete Carroll gets his backfield sorted out.

That’s My Take for Week 2.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 8th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

That’s My Take 2017

Fantasy Player Notes

It’s time to talk about the big boy receivers, affectionately known as the tight ends. Now normally I might have included the Chiefs Travis Kelce, but we all got a good look at him Thursday; tremendous size and its apparent head coach Andy Reid is going to get him the ball. Kelce could be another Gronk this season. Now here are few names of players that are not like Gronk, but will have fantasy impact.

Fantasy Tight Ends

Kyle Rudolph

There’s little conversation going on about Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph, at least I am not hearing much, but there should be talk. Last season with first year in Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford, Rudolph turned in a stat line of 83-840-7. I have to be honest, that was the quietest stat line I remember from last season and it was good enough for the No.3 fantasy tight end. The Vikings biggest problem last season was their O-line and lack of running game; two things they addressed in the offseason. Any improvements in these areas will likely reflect with improvement in the pass game and Rudolph’s numbers. He may not have been drafted top five at his position in your draft, but there’s a good chance he finishes there.

Hunter Henry

Yes, the Chargers still have the future Hall-of-fame tight end Antonio Gates, but no doubt tight end Hunter Henry is a name on the rise. In his rookie campaign he started 10 games for the Chargers and finished as the league’s No.11 fantasy tight end (standard leagues). His 2016 numbers were touchdown dependent, but this season he should carve out a larger role in the offense and greatly improve on his 19th ranking in PPR last season. He’s a starting TE1 in 12-team leagues (bottom half) for me this season.

Jack Doyle

With the prospect of quarterback Andrew Luck throwing passes to him again this season, I believe Doyle can pick up right where he left off in 2016. A season ago Doyle finished as the No.13 fantasy tight end (PPR) with 59 receptions, 584 yards receiving, and 5 touchdowns. Doyle is probably going to be slow out of the gate with Luck sidelined the first couple of weeks, but he could be a strong sneaky play in the second half of the season. He’s got great fantasy value coming late off the draft boards.

Julius Thomas

After two productive seasons in Denver, the Dolphins tight end Julius Thomas has not been very fantasy relevant since; last season in standard leagues he was the 29th ranked fantasy tight end. Thomas arrived in Miami this offseason, enter head coach Adam Gase (Thomas’ old OC in Denver) and new quarterback Jay Cutler. Thomas is a big body tight end the team believes could finish with double figure touchdowns; add the Gase-Cutler factor. In 2015 when these two (Cutler & Gaes) were paired in Chicago, Cutler targeted his tight ends 127 times, for 88 receptions, and 8 touchdowns. Thomas is a sleeper tight end this season, with potential huge upside if he stays healthy!

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 3rd 2017

Sunday Night Late Edition

Fantasy Watch List

Studs & Duds

The holiday weekend is almost to a close, but there is still plenty of fantasy football to cover, fantasy drafts to be had, and fantasy players to discuss. Always the questions to be asked once you drafted a player or your team; Did I find good value? Is there too much risk? Is this player a stud? Did I take him too early?

Well here are a few players that I’ll offer my answer on;

Studs (target these guys)

Call me a believer and call him Matty Ice, but I like the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan this season once again. Some folks may think his epic and career performance last season is more of an anomaly than the norm, but I see it as a trend. Ryan posted career numbers in passing touchdowns (38), passing yards (4,944), completion percentage (69.9), and QB rating (117.13). Since 2012 he has passed for over 4,500 yards every season, his completion percentage has remained steady above 65 percent. Last year was a big year with a high touchdown volume and few turnovers (7 interceptions), so coming back with virtually all of the same pieces in place on offense, I expect similar results. He’s the number four quarterback going off the boards, where he belongs.

The Redskins tight end Jordan Reed is one of those risks and rewards picks this year. When he’s healthy, he’s as good as the best at his position, putting up fantasy numbers that rival the Patriots Rob Gronkowski. Last season from weeks 1 to 5 and then again from weeks 8 to 12, Reed was the No. 3 scoring fantasy tight end in the NFL. During these two spans the Redskins tight end totaled 81 targets, 59 receptions, 630 yards receiving, and 5 scores; extrapolated over 16 games that’s a line of 105-1120-9. If Reed is healthy this season, his upside is Gronk-like. Even with the risk, he’s worth the take around his mid-5th round ADP (according to FFC) and any later than that he’s a great value.

Duds (drafting too early)

To again clarify, my definition of Dud is not a bust, but rather just under performing their current draft position. When I talk about the Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota, the word bust is not a part of the conversation. Mariota has been steady since his arrival finishing the 2016 campaign as the No. 13 fantasy quarterback. This season the Titan’s signal caller has a few new toys; the addition of veteran wide receiver Eric Decker and rookie receiver Corey Davis. The thing fantasy owners need to remember, last season the Titans were 4th in the NFL with 476 rushing attempts, 3rd in the league in rushing yards per game, and threw the 5th fewest passes. This season the Titans may throw a little more, but their primary weapon is their run game. What I expect to see from Mariota is a lot of efficiency, not necessarily greater volume. On the other hand I see several other passers such as Jameis Winston, Kirk Cousins, and Ben Roethlisberger throwing the ball considerably more. Mariota is a QB1 in 10-12 team leagues, but his total numbers may leave him closer to his No.13 finish from last season, rather than his No.7 fantasy quarterback going off the board.

Another quarterback that I view in similar light to Mariota is the Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. Again, it’s not so much what he does or doesn’t do, but it’s where he lands compared to other quarterbacks going off the board right after him. Wilson is being drafted as the No. 5 quarterback ahead of Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, and Andrew Luck. I have him as my No.12 fantasy quarterback this season, following a No.10 finish in 2016. Last year Wilson needed 546 passes, 63 more than his career high to post his number 10 finish; this is not something I expect to see him repeat. He’ll be efficient and could be easily be Top10 (with better numbers this season), but I think other quarterbacks (the ones mentioned) are more likely to have the opportunity to post Top-10 fantasy numbers this season.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Decemeber 10th 2016
Saturday Morning Edition

Week 14 Fantasy Notes

Taking a look at this week’s quarterback position presents it’s own challenges and dilemmas with so much at stake. Do you ride with what has gotten you there, or do you read the numbers and play the matchups? Decisions, decisions...

The Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has been a hot fantasy prospect much of the season. Slotting in as the number 3 scoring quarterback Ryan has been a regular weekly start’em, but such has not been the case of late. In his first nine games this season, Ryan topped the 20 fantasy points marker six times. 

In his last three starts Ryan has yet to reach 19 fantasy points (standard scoring) and with a banged up wide receiver Julio Jones, the prospects don’t look good. This week will also present a difficult matchup on the road facing a tough Rams defense. The Rams defense has not been invincible this season ranking at 12th fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season and they have also been shredded the past two weeks allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks. At best Ryan is a questionable, but safe start (if you can afford to be safe).

On the other hand, if you need to swing for the fences and can throw caution to the wind Colin Kapaernick may be the play for you this week. The Niners signal caller is coming off one of his worst performances on the field and statistically; 1 for 5 passing for 4 yards and just 20 yards rushing. In fairness conditions were atrocious in the Windy City (Chicago), but just the same this type of performance is concerning for fantasy owners.

The good news for Kap owners and fans, the Niners are home and coming to town are the lowly New York Jets. The Jets are coming off a woeful Monday night showing against the Colts where quarterback Andrew Luck and company made mincemeat of their secondary. Luck completed 22 of 28 for 278 yards and four touchdowns; this followed a week 12 performance from Patriots quarterback Tom Brady who passed for 286 yards with two touchdowns. 

The prospects of a good Sunday are there for Kapaernick and the weather should not be a factor. Play him over quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, Trevor Siemian, and Marcus Mariota at your own risk. With options like Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer, I am sticking with my starters.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 19th, 2016
Saturday Evening Edition

Week 11 Fantasy Favorites

While some folks may be high on the Tennessee Titan's quarterback Marcus Mariota and why not, he's been hot of late; 7 touchdown passes over the past two weeks, I am liking his opponent Colts quarterback Andrew Luck. It hasn't been a great season thus far for Luck, but he's still been very much in the thick of things this fantasy season with six games of 17 fantasy points or more. Sunday he gets the Titans 24th ranked pass defense that allows the 10th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. And remember back in week 7 Luck lit up the Titans for 353 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Another favorite for Sunday that I am high on is Titan's tight end Delanie Walker. Walker is the 2nd ranked fantasy tight end (standard scoring) through 10 weeks, with five receiving touchdowns (tied for most in the league). In his last meeting versus the Colts back in week seven he logged 7 receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. He is the 6th most targeted tight end in the league and figures to have another busy Sunday against the Colts.

Lastly, another Sunday favorite that I will be eyeing is the Steelers 2nd year wide receiver Eli Rogers. No question this is a flyer pick and Sunday sleeper, but I like Rogers chances. The Browns secondary allows the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receivers and have allowed 40 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season (most in the league). The Browns have also allowed 9 pass plays of 40 yards or more (4th most) and Rogers is a big play threat. He's a bit hit or miss; more likely a better DFS play than redraft lineup insert. But keep an eye on Rogers going forward.

That's my take.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 25th, 2016
Sunday Edition

Sleeper Spotlight

With Donte Moncrief out, the speedy Colts wide out Phillip Dorsett with get his shots opposite T.Y. Hilton. Dorsett will also have his starting quarterback Andrew Luck under center, so he should see plenty of targets especially downfield. Like Hilton, I like Dorsett as a big play receiver and he'll get in the end zone today against the Chargers.

The Giants will be without running back Rashad Jennings today, but that's good news for Shane Vereen fantasy owners. Vereen is a very capable runner and exceptional in the passing game. He's a borderline flex-RB2 today especially in PPR formats. I say play him with confidence.

Those are a couple of my takes for Sleepers in week 3.

My Daily DFS

If you are like me you can never get enough fantasy. I enjoy the season long leagues very much, but I am definitely hooked on the daily fantasy sports as well. Here's my week 3 Draft Kings line-up in one of the smaller contests;

QB-Philip Rivers ...still has plenty left in tank
RB-CJ Anderson ...has been solid this season
RB-DeMarco Murray ...looks like the feature back
WR-Travis Benjamin ...doubling down with Rivers
WR-Kenny Britt ...looking for value here.
WR-Amari Cooper ...could be a breakout Sunday
TE-Dwayne Allen ...one of Luck's faves in Red Zone
Flex-Victor Cruz ...should find end zone today
DST-Broncos ...defense looks solid!


That's my take,

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 19th, 2016
Friday







Some Draft Strategy (Wait on the QB)

In my most recent draft, it was clearly evident waiting on your QB was the safe move. It's a pretty standard PPR league with a slight emphasis on yards, but like in most leagues the scoring differential from your top tier QB to the next levels presents very little drop off.

For instance the top QB's taken in our draft (3rd round) were your standard top guns; Aaron Rodgers (#7 ranked in 2015), Drew Brees (#6 ranked), and Andrew Luck (#2 ranked in 2014). I was able to take Carson Palmer (ranked #5) in the 5th round, drafting a top tier RB and two top 15 WR's with Kelvin Benjamin in the 4th round (a slight reach, but I think he has a bounce back season).

The quarterback has the alure of being the main guy, the driving force behind today's pass happy offenses, but aside from Cam Newtons 45 touchdowns last year the difference between the number three quarterback and the number 12 was by average 3.5 fantasy points per game.

Waiting on the QB can give you the opportunity to snag that top flight WR or that reliable running back to solidify your fantasy backfield. Let the other guy reach early for that signal caller, in the long run you'll be the benefactor.

That's my take

~David Ortega

SUNDAY: TWO MINUTE WARNING

November 8th, 2015
Sunday, Week 9

Sunday: Two-Minute Warning

I rarely get into the defensive side of fantasy, especially team defenses, but after last week's impressive display against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers I have to mention the Broncos defense.

Dominant last week, their play alone helped secure a needed win in one of my season long leagues. And the most impressive part was not the three sacks, 10 points allowed, and the safety, but rather the opponent they shut down. They have to be looked at as one of the top three and must plays in every format, every week.

This week should be no different facing a similar style quarterback that has athleticism and mobility and strong arm, but the Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has not been playing well. And while he has the ability to evade pressure in the pocket, he makes a lot of his plays from the pocket (which could play right into the Broncos wheelhouse).

Another defense worth riding today; facing a depleted and struggling Niners offense the Falcons defense is primed to put up solid numbers. The Niners offense is near the bottom and have allowed the 4th most sacks this season (28 sacks allowed); and at a great value in DFS, the Falcons defense should be in many of your lineups today.

Some other quick nuggets for Sunday;

I like Ben Roethlisberger to have a big passing day against the Raiders today; look for Martavis Bryant to see some downfield looks.

I like what we are seeing from Drew Brees and today could be another solid Sunday for wide receiver Brandin Cooks (12 receptions in his last two games).

A Sunday sleeper could be the Broncos running back CJ Anderson. Last week he ran very well and looked real comfortable in the backfield. He should also see some week in the pass game.

That's my take.

~David G

FSH NOTEBOOK: (SATURDAY'S) FRIDAY FOOTBALL FIXX

Saturday Edition
December 8th, 2012

  

(Saturday’s) Friday Football Fixx

Fantasy Player News

Taking a look around the National Football League at fantasy football players for Sunday with the latest news and takes;

Nicks Questionable for Sunday
The Giants wide receiver Hakeem Nicks is listed as questionable for Sunday against the Saints, but the explosive wide out did practice on Friday. Nicks has been battling injuries all season and has yet to get back to 100%, but despite being limited this week he is still expected to play on Sunday. Nicks play has been improving over the past couple of weeks since his return from injury, but this little setback could be cause of concern for fantasy owners. His status is still up in the air, but if he is active against the Saints shaky secondary, he needs to be in fantasy lineups.

Nelson Ruled OUT for Sunday
Wide receiver Jordy Nelson has been ruled out for Sunday night against the Lions and will not play. With Nelson on the sidelines, fantasy owners for wide receivers Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb, and James Jones can expect a bump in fantasy value this week. Jennings will be playing only in his second game since returning from injury, but he is expected to fill the role of Nelson and should do just fine. With the Lions up next, Jennings should be in your lineups this week.

Sunday is Wayne’s World
The Colts veteran wide receiver Reggie Wayne has been having a prolific 2012 campaign and his current 88 catches and 1,156 yards receiving have him on pace to set career highs in both categories. Wayne is without question rookie quarterback Andrew Luck’s security blanket and has been targeted a league high 153 times this season. On Sunday the Colts have a very favorable matchup against the Titans 25th ranked pass defense, so fantasy owners can expect Luck to look Wayne’s way quite often.

Ivory Unlikely to Play Sunday
The Saints are likely to be without the services of running back Christopher Ivory (doubtful) on Sunday against the Giants. The Giants defense is ranked 21st against the run and even without Ivory, the Saints backfield remains crowded and convoluted. With the Saints being primarily a passing team, running back Darren Sproles remains the only reliable running back with any real fantasy value (in PPR leagues only).

With Harvin OUT All-Day Must Carry the Load
The Vikings have been riding the legs of running back Adrian Peterson (1,446 yard rushing in 2012) most of this season and with the loss of wide receiver Percy Harvin, it looks like he will have to carry the offensive load the rest of the way. Peterson is averaging just over 20 carries in his last six games and has rushed for more than 100 yards in each (he’s also scored in 5 of his last 6), including 210 yards last week. Fantasy owners can expect to see a heavy dose of All-Day the rest of the way and similar success on the ground, despite who Peterson faces

Turner to Play Sunday against Panthers
The Falcons will have running back Michael Turner in the lineup on Sunday against the Panthers, which is good news for fantasy owners. Turner has yet to really break out this season recording just two 100-yard rushing efforts, both at home with the last coming in week 9. This Sunday on the road against the Panthers could be his third facing the league’s 25th ranked run defense. The Panthers are allowing nearly 130 yards on the ground, 4.4 yards a pop, and have surrendered 10 rushing touchdowns. If you a looking for a big game from Turner this week, this matchup could not come at a better time; he’s a safe play this Sunday.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FIVE

Friday Edition
December 7th, 2012  

FSH Fantasy Five

Week 14 Fantasy Picks (all positions)

The Fantasy Playoffs are underway and this is no time to be second guessing or playing with doubt. This week it’s “Go Big or Go Home” so you better have the right guys in your lineup. Looking over the week 14 matchups, I offer a handful of plays that I favor this Sunday;

Week 14 fantasy help;

Michael Crabtree, WR
The 49ers don’t usually have much for fantasy owners to get excited about on offense, but unlike any other season or earlier in the season with quarterback Colin Kaepernick under center he adds another dimension that can open things up. Since Kaepernick took over the controls of the offense, wide receiver Michael Crabtree has been steadily involved. Last Sunday Crabtree was targeted a season high 11 times; his stat line, 7 receptions for 101 yards. This Sunday the Niners will face the Dolphins 26th ranked defense that allows the 17th most fantasy points to wide receivers.  In their last three road games the Dolphins have allowed at least 79 yards to the opposing team’s leading receiver; Crabtree should be a very safe flex option this week. 

Brandon Pettigrew, TE
It’s looking to be a chilly night this Sunday in Lambeau, but even low temperatures won’t stop the Lions passing game from heating up. The Lions pass game is in full throttle and over the team’s past four games tight end Brandon Pettigrew has been targeted heavily (39 times). With injuries to their young receivers (Ryan Broyles and Titus Young), fantasy owners can expect to see Pettigrew even more involved. The Packers secondary does a pretty good job against opposing tight ends, but last season at Lambeau Pettigrew caught 7 balls for 116 yards; this week could be another big game.

Alfred Morris, RB
The Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan has found himself another gem in the draft. Many of us knew that RGIII was a great talent with a tremendous upside, but very few knew what the Redskins found when they selected rookie running back Alfred Morris in the 6th round. Morris has been great this season rushing for 1,106 yards with six rushing touchdowns. He has surpassed the century mark five times this season, including his back-to-back efforts in week 12 and 13. With the Ravens 23rd ranked run defense coming to town, Morris could make it three in a row. He’s averaging 22 carries per game in his last three starts and may not need that many to hit the 100-yard mark this Sunday; play him!

Greg Jennings, WR
The Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings is just one game back from injury and although his return was less than spectacular, his four grabs for 46 yards were respectable considering. The more important number to note from last week was his 8 targets. This week the Packers will be without wide out Jordy Nelson facing the Lions 18th ranked pass defense. Fantasy owners can expect at least as many, if not more targets for Jennings this week and facing a secondary that allows the 12th most fantasy points to wide receivers, he’s a lock for a more productive week 14. Jennings should be in your lineup somewhere, low WR2 or flex.

Andrew Luck, QB
Quarterback Andrew Luck has been too consistent this season to be lucky; the kid is just good. This week facing the Titans 25th ranked pass defense, fantasy owners can count on the Colts offense riding Luck’s arm; the Colts offense goes through Luck. Not only does Luck lead the way, but this week he gets a defense that allows the 8th most fantasy points to quarterbacks and has allowed 24 touchdowns. Coming off a big win in week 13, Luck needs to be in lineups this Sunday for another big performance.


By David Ortega