FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Morning Edition

September 14th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Gametime

Last Minute Notes

Well, we actually have more than a couple of minutes; we are several hours away from Sunday kickoff. But in the whole scheme of things this is last minute considering how much time we have had available to set our line-ups.

With Sunday kickoff for week 2 of the NFL just a few short hours away, I thought I would take a look at some of today’s matchups and offer some helpful insight or just give you my opinion; whatever makes you feel most comfortable.

While I am setting my 19 head-2-head fantasy lineups this morning and one thing I will be remembering, in the Jacksonville-Washington game today the Jaguars will not have the services of safety Johnathan Cyprien (concussion). Cyprien is a great talent in the secondary and was second on the team in tackles last season with 104. Last week when Cyprien left the game against the Eagles, the Jaguars secondary had a lot of problems, blown assignments and allowed several big plans. As a result the defense surrendered 34 second half points.

The Redskins offense is in great need of some kind of spark coming off their poor performance in week one scoring just six points. The Jaguars may be just what the doctored ordered. With Cyprien ruled out this week, the Redskins wide receivers Pierre Garcon (10rec/77yds) and DeSean Jackson (8rec/62yds) may finally get on track and hit a few big plays in the pass game. I like both plays today and I would even consider tight end Niles Paul (4 targets in week 1) a sneaky sleeper play today for those with need at the position. And of course with all this love for his receivers, I have to say I like quarterback Robert Griffin III to bounce back today with a solid performance.

Looking at another matchup today with injury implications having an impact, the Saints-Browns matchup is interesting. Browns tight end Jordan Cameron has been listed as questionable all with a shoulder injury that he reaggravated in week one. With Cameron limited or possibly ruled out, I am in heavy favor of wide receiver Andrew Hawkins (8rec/87yds last week). Hawkins played with the Bengals last season and came over to the Browns during the offseason. During training camp he built up a nice rapport with quartback Brian Hoyer; in week one Hawkins was targeted 10 times. Today could be much of the same. Hawkins is not a big play, but has the look of a volume receiver; he’ll see plenty more targets and rack up more catches. That’s PPR gold.

Circling back the wagons and looking at an earlier morning matchup in the Northeast, I believe the Dolphins-Bills matchup today will be a close game. I believe both teams will be able to stay with the game-plans and run the ball extensively. The Bills did a solid job in week one limiting the Bears run game allowing 86 yards on 18 carries. The key number here is the 18 carries, because today the Bills defense is likely to see a significantly larger number facing the M&M boys. In week one against the Patriots, the Dolphins running backs Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller combined for 35 carries. Moreno is the favorite here, leading the way in week one with 24 totes, but Lamar Miller still has plenty of fantasy relevance. Miller carried the ball 11 times to the tune of 59 yards; he also snagged four passes. Both have value and both should be in your lineup today; Moreno as an RB2 and Miller as a flex.

These are just a couple of my takes for Week 2.

Good luck.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FIVE

Friday Edition
December 7th, 2012  

FSH Fantasy Five

Week 14 Fantasy Picks (all positions)

The Fantasy Playoffs are underway and this is no time to be second guessing or playing with doubt. This week it’s “Go Big or Go Home” so you better have the right guys in your lineup. Looking over the week 14 matchups, I offer a handful of plays that I favor this Sunday;

Week 14 fantasy help;

Michael Crabtree, WR
The 49ers don’t usually have much for fantasy owners to get excited about on offense, but unlike any other season or earlier in the season with quarterback Colin Kaepernick under center he adds another dimension that can open things up. Since Kaepernick took over the controls of the offense, wide receiver Michael Crabtree has been steadily involved. Last Sunday Crabtree was targeted a season high 11 times; his stat line, 7 receptions for 101 yards. This Sunday the Niners will face the Dolphins 26th ranked defense that allows the 17th most fantasy points to wide receivers.  In their last three road games the Dolphins have allowed at least 79 yards to the opposing team’s leading receiver; Crabtree should be a very safe flex option this week. 

Brandon Pettigrew, TE
It’s looking to be a chilly night this Sunday in Lambeau, but even low temperatures won’t stop the Lions passing game from heating up. The Lions pass game is in full throttle and over the team’s past four games tight end Brandon Pettigrew has been targeted heavily (39 times). With injuries to their young receivers (Ryan Broyles and Titus Young), fantasy owners can expect to see Pettigrew even more involved. The Packers secondary does a pretty good job against opposing tight ends, but last season at Lambeau Pettigrew caught 7 balls for 116 yards; this week could be another big game.

Alfred Morris, RB
The Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan has found himself another gem in the draft. Many of us knew that RGIII was a great talent with a tremendous upside, but very few knew what the Redskins found when they selected rookie running back Alfred Morris in the 6th round. Morris has been great this season rushing for 1,106 yards with six rushing touchdowns. He has surpassed the century mark five times this season, including his back-to-back efforts in week 12 and 13. With the Ravens 23rd ranked run defense coming to town, Morris could make it three in a row. He’s averaging 22 carries per game in his last three starts and may not need that many to hit the 100-yard mark this Sunday; play him!

Greg Jennings, WR
The Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings is just one game back from injury and although his return was less than spectacular, his four grabs for 46 yards were respectable considering. The more important number to note from last week was his 8 targets. This week the Packers will be without wide out Jordy Nelson facing the Lions 18th ranked pass defense. Fantasy owners can expect at least as many, if not more targets for Jennings this week and facing a secondary that allows the 12th most fantasy points to wide receivers, he’s a lock for a more productive week 14. Jennings should be in your lineup somewhere, low WR2 or flex.

Andrew Luck, QB
Quarterback Andrew Luck has been too consistent this season to be lucky; the kid is just good. This week facing the Titans 25th ranked pass defense, fantasy owners can count on the Colts offense riding Luck’s arm; the Colts offense goes through Luck. Not only does Luck lead the way, but this week he gets a defense that allows the 8th most fantasy points to quarterbacks and has allowed 24 touchdowns. Coming off a big win in week 13, Luck needs to be in lineups this Sunday for another big performance.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition

November 17th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

Turner Limited, Rodgers Could See More Action

The Falcons starting running back Michael Turner has been limited all week in practice and is listed as questionable for Sunday. Turner, who has remained relatively ineffective most of the 2012 campaign, could lose some touches this week should he even play. Back up Jacquizz Rodgers has slowly become more a part of the weekly game plan averaging 9 touches a contest over the team’s last three games. Rodgers has shown great productivity in his limited role averaging 65 yards of offense in the same span. Rodgers season high for carries is 10, something we could very well see him match against the Cardinals 23^rd ranked run defense with Turner ailing. Rodgers is a risky play in normal 10-team leagues, but in deeper formats he could be a sneaky sleeper.

Murray Doubtful for Sunday, Time for More Felix the Back

The Cowboys will likely not have the services of running back DeMarco Murray on Sunday, opening the door for back up Felix Jones. The Cowboys back up runner says he is feeling good and will have a great opportunity to show just how much agains the Browns 26^th ranked run defense. Jones is averaging less than four yards per carry this season and has scored just two rushing touchdowns in four starts this season. The Browns are allowing 4.3 yards per carry and have allowed only 7 rushing touchdowns this season, but they are giving up the 11^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Jones has a good matchup this week and looks to be a good flex option in deeper formats.

Tom Terrific Set to Shine on Sunday Once Again

With the emergence of a couple of youngsters and the return of an old foe, quarterback Tom Brady has seemingly become lost in the shuffle by normal standards. Despite the less press he’s been receiving in fantasy circles and the regular media, Brady has been terrific in 2012; 18 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 293 yards passing per game. With the Colts up next, Brady looks set to shine once again. The Colts rank 15^th against the pass and allow the 13^th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, numbers that figure to rise after Sunday’s tilt. Brady has also been on fire as of late averaging 24 completions, 265 yards-plus passing per game over his last three starts; he’s also tossed 8 touchdowns without an interception. He’s a must start and facing a strong Colts passing game, Brady could post some big numbers this week to set the pace.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: MONDAY MORNING HUDDLE

Monday Edition

October 22nd, 2012 

Monday Morning Huddle

Week 7 Fantasy Headlines

V-Jax Emerging Among the Elite

On Sunday against the Saints shoddy secondary wide receiver Vincent Jackson continued his hot hand, adding 7 receptions for over 200 yards receiving with a touchdown grab. In his last three starts V-Jax has tallied 17 catches for 382 yards receiving (a 22.8 yards per catch average), and four touchdowns. Jackson has scored five times this season, including a touchdown in each of his last three games and now ranks among the leaders in yards receiving (5^th) and touchdowns (T-4^th). He’s a man on fire and looks to continue this trend in week 8 when Tampa Bay visits the Vikings.

Andrew Luck Can Also Use His Legs

There has been so much made about Andrew Luck, his arm, and his head as he makes the transition from college to pro, but something some may have overlooked is his mobility and ability to use his legs. Before Sunday this season Luck had been exception at home throwing six touchdowns and passing for an average of nearly 300 yards per game. Against the Browns on Sunday, Luck showed not only can he beat you with his arm, but he can also use his legs rushing for two scores to lead the Colts to victory. Luck has accounted for 8 scores in four home games and improved his home record to 3-1 this season; nothing like home-cooking.

RGIII Playing Beyond His Years

It was a tough loss for the Redskins on Sunday falling to the Giants, but one thing learned (if you didn’t already know) this Griffin kid is something special. It was not one of his more prolific statistical game, but RGIII did an outstanding job managing the offense and making plays with his leg when he had to; his Sunday line 258 yards pass, 89 yards rush, two touchdowns (pass) and two turnovers. In spite of some of his rookie tendencies, he still gave his team a chance handling the pressure of late game heroics and making the necessary plays to win. He did just that and it was his defense let him down on Sunday.

Aaron Rodger Returning To Form

In the Packers first five games this season quarterback Aaron Rodgers tossed a total of 10 touchdowns, in his past two starts he has nine. Rodgers and the Packers aerial attack at starting to resemble more and more like the 2011 team that went 15-1. They still have a few issues in the backfield to sort out, but as long as Rodgers continues to play at his elite level, the Packers will always have a chance and will figure into the scheme of things come January.

Fantasy Stock Notes

On the Rise

The Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman has had the hot hand of late passing for 299 yards or more in his last three starts, including 420 yards on Sunday against the Saints. Freeman has also collected 7 passing touchdowns in his last three starts while scoring 15, 29, and 34 fantasy (standard scoring) points respectively.

The Steelers backfield is currently ailing and banged up, emerge running back Jonathan Dwyer. With Mendenhall and Redman sidelined, Dwyer took the reins and rambled for 122 yards on the ground Sunday night against the Bengals. With the Steelers running game grounded much for the season, Dwyer gave it signs of life and could figure more prominently moving forward. His 100 yards were a first for the team this season.

The Packers may have found themselves a new weapon in wide receiver Randall Cobb, making them even more dangerous when Greg Jennings returns. In his last four starts Cobb has averaged 6.5 receptions, 84.7 yards receiving, and has scored three times, including twice last Sunday. Cobb has shown he is a true playmaker and you can bet the Packers will continue to keep him involved in the game plan moving forward.

Falling

The Browns rookie running back Trent Richardson is quickly falling out of favor from fantasy owners as his stock continues to plummet. Richardson again exited from a game early on Sunday, finishing the day with just 8 yards rushing (nothing a fantasy owner wants to see). Richardson has been hampered with nagging injuries thus far this season and has hardly played enough to showcase anything to get excited about. In his seven starts he finished with less than 60 yards of offense four times scoring just once in those games.

The Colts speedy receiver Donnie Avery continues to see looks every week, averaging nearly 9 targets per game, but the numbers are just not there. He has just one 100-yard receiving game this season in six tries and has only broke 60 or more yards just one other time. His lack of production in recent weeks has sent his stock plunging to the bottom of the barrel. He’s no longer lineup worthy (even as a flex) until he breaks from his current slump.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Monday Edition

September 17th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

My Week 2 Takes

Andrew Luck: The Colts QB More Than Just Luck

The Colts rookie quarterback is growing up fast. After a tough debut a week ago in Chicago quarterback Andrew Luck rebounds not just with a solid performance in week 2 against the Vikings, but gets his first career win. Luck is still short of being an every week fantasy QB, but with his three touchdown passes and over 550 yards passing in two games with each performance he’s getting closer.

Alex Smith: The Look of a Winner

The Niners have the defense and a punishing ground attack, but what they have lacked in the air may have finally arrived this season. Thus far this season quarterback Alex Smith has looked steady and efficient, but Sunday night against the Lions he looked like a winner. He didn’t just manage the game, he made plays; his first touchdown pass to Vernon (dropped right in on the money), his second toss to Vernon (gave his playmaker a chance to make a play). Before Monday night’s game, Smith ranked tied-for-second in the NFL with 4 touchdown passes and his 115.9 passer rating ranks 3^rd. He’s not an elite fantasy option, but in deep leagues he’s safe play under center.

Robert Griffin III: Better Than Advertised

After two games and nearly two wins (should have beat the Rams), it’s clear that head coach Mike Shanahan and the Redskins may have caught lightning in a bottle. Quarterback Robert Griffin III is a special player and could be much better than most expected. After two weeks of NFL play RGIII is a top five rated passer and a fantasy stud; (standard scoring) in two games he has scored 28 and 32 fantasy points. Now that’s impressive.

Ray Rice: Best Fantasy RB in the Biz

After another Sunday of just dominating on the gridiron and the fantasy football charts (99 rushing yards, 6 receptions and 53 yards), running back Ray Rice stakes his claim as the best in the biz. What makes Rice such an appealing fantasy option is his consistency; standard scoring 20 fantasy points in week one and 14 points in week two. With nine receptions already, in PPR leagues he’s even better.

Darren Sproles: A Small Package of Dynamite

The small package that is Darren Sproles continues to electrify football fans and fantasy owners on Sunday with high output of production. The scat back was solid in week 2 (huge in PPR leagues) with 13 grabs for 128 yards. He’s not an RB1 fantasy back, but he’s a worthy start as a flex or RB2 in deeper leagues because of his productivity and play making ability; 9 fantasy points in week one and 12 in week two.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FIVE

Monday Edition

September 10th, 2012 

FSH Fantasy Five

Week 1 Quarterbacks

There were plenty of surprises and nice turn-ins by a few of the Fantasy regular, but these five were the performances I found most interesting on Sunday. I am not saying these were the best, but there’s no question their numbers had an impact in fantasy and on the field.

Mark Sanchez, NYJ (266 yards passing, 3 touchdowns)

The San-chise is back? Maybe it’s too early to be crowing anyone, but what a nice turn-around for the former Trojan after a dismal showing throughout the playoffs; or was that the plan?

My Fantasy Read: Sanchez had a break-out Sunday against the Bills, but it’s far too small a sample to weigh in that he’s come of age. This should be a make or break year for Sanchez and he’s off to a good start, but before you start selling his stock high we’ll need to see more return.

Robert Griffin III, WASH (320 yards passing, 2 touchdowns)

Does anyone want to give Mike Shanahan any credit for knowing what he is doing. Sure his tenure in Washington thus far has been tumultuous at best, but nice call with the selection of the kid with the dreads. RGIII looked nothing like a raw rookie dicing up the Saints defense on Sunday.

My Fantasy Read: The rookie sure didn’t play like one, taking his Redskins on the road and traveling to New Orleans to knock off last seasons’ NFC South Division winner. The feat and performance on Sunday was quite impressive, but it may be a little too early to coronate RGIII. Early as it may be, it’s not too early to say he’s worth starting in week two against the Rams.

  

Tom Brady, NE (236 yards passing, 2 touchdowns)

Tom Terrifc was every bit just that completing 23 of 31 passes as he and the Patriots sailed to an easy 34-13 road win over the Titans.

My Fantasy Read: Once he and his deep threat Brandon Lloyd get more in sync, expect Brady to start posting not just big, but huge numbers. Brady has plenty of weapons, but he’ll need the presence and effectiveness of Lloyd to retain his place near the top of the QB fantasy world.

Jay Cutler, CHI (333 yards passing, 2 touchdowns)

With his new toy in place, Cutler made wide receiver Brandon Marshall feel right at home hooking up with his former and re-united teammate nine times. Cutler also made mince meat of the Colts secondary connecting on 21 of 35 passes.

My Fantasy Read: Cutler was brilliant and quite deadly with his big arm. Now that he has a big time receiver and a couple of big targets he’s going to be a top 10 fantasy QB every week. In week two, he could have trouble facing the Packers pass rush, but when they don’t get there he’s going to make them pay. He’s a worthy start every week.

Peyton Manning, DEN (253 yards passing, 2 touchdowns)

How long was he out anyway? Peyton Manning sure didn’t show much rust Sunday night facing the Steelers defense, as a matter of fact he showed a lot of sharpness and poise. Manning was efficient and accurate as ever completing 19 of 26 passes (73% completion) and completely picking apart the Steelers secondary.

My Fantasy Read: Like any fantasy play it’s always good to consider the matchup, but Manning at this point looks like a safe solid play week in and week out. The Broncos O-line did a pretty good job of protection and with the next matchup in doors (at Atlanta), Manning should feel quite comfortable facing the Falcons secondary next Monday. 

One Final Thought

Not to slight any quarterbacks in week one, but one more that deserves a quick mention is Matt Ryan (ATL). Against the Chiefs Ryan shined with 299 yards passing and three touchdowns. A quick read, this was no fluke; with the weapons he now has in Atlanta, Ryan is poised to put up big numbers. 

By David Ortega