FSH NOTEBOOK: BY THE NUMBERS

Tuesday Edition
October 30th, 2012  

By the Numbers

When you know all the facts, there’s no escaping the truth and numbers seldom lie. Taking a look at how players are performing in fantasy scoring is typically in direct proportion to their opportunity. The more chances afforded a player the more likely he will produce. If you are a gambler, you like to play with the odds that are in your favor.

Here’s the week 8 breakdown of the numbers….

Targets (the past four weeks)

Over the past month, some names of notable mention include Mike Williams (TB), Titus Young (DET), and Cecil Shorts (JAX). These are not your regular household names, but increased involvement has made them more than relevant over the past several weeks. 

A couple of names that could be joining the conversation soon could include Jeremy Kerley and Andre Roberts. Both are top 30 WR’s over the past four weeks, but could see a production boost if their target numbers continue. At the moment, neither is nothing more than a possible flex option fill, but keep watching.

Weekly Target average:

1. Brandon Marshall, WR (13.66 targets per game)
2. Reggie Wayne, WR (13.00 targets per game)
3. Marques Colston, WR (12.66 targets per game)
4. Steve Smith (CAR), WR (12.66 targets per game)
5. Wes Welker, WR (11.50 targets per game)
6. Larry Fitzgerald, WR (11.25 targets per game)
7. Percy Harvin, WR (10.25 targets per game)
8. Victor Cruz, WR (10.00 targets per game)
9. Jeremy Kerley, WR (9.25 targets per game)
 T-10. Andre Roberts, WR (9.00 targets per game)
Mike Wallace, WR (9.00 targets per game)

Some additional PPR numbers…

Top targeted RB’s past four weeks

1. Darren Sproles, NO (6.66 targets per game)
2. Fred Jackson, BUF (6.00 targets per game)
3. Darren McFadden, OAK (5.66 targets per game)
3. Ryan Matthews, SDC (5.66 targets per game)
3. Rashad Jennings, JAX (5.66 targets per game)
3. Ronnie Brown, SDC (5.66 targets per game)

Top targeted TE’s past four weeks

1. Jason Witten, DAL (12.33 targets per game)
2. Rob Gronkowski, NEP (8.75 targets per game)
3. Tony Gonzales, ATL (8.66 targets per game)
4. Brandon Pettigrew, DET (7.33 targets per game)
5. Antonio Gates, SDC (7.00 targets per game)
5. Heath Miller, PIT (7.00 targets per game)

Touches (the past four weeks)

An important factor in a running back’s success is developing a rhythm and building momentum during the game; for some the more touches the better they get. These are the most active in the backfield over the past month.

While his numbers have not been strong the past couple of weeks Alex Green gets plenty of work, enough to keep him in the top 25 (over the past month). Like Green in Green Bay, Shonn Greene in New York has been seeing plenty of action himself. His workload has help him produce at a top 5 level for the past weeks and has shot him up the board inside the top 15 for the season. With Richardson returning in week 8 and running well, with this average fantasy owners can expect to see his production also rise.

Average Carries with Catches:

1. Darren McFadden, RB (28.66 touches per game)
2. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB (25.00 touches per game)
3. Arian Foster, RB (22.66 touches per game)
4. Adrian Peterson, RB (21.25 touches per game)
5. Alex Green, RB (20.75 touches per game)
6. Chris Johnson, RB (20.25 touches per game)
7. Stevan Ridley, RB (19.25 touches per game)
8. Shonn Greene, RB (20.00 touches per game)
9. Alfred Morris, RB (18.25 touches per game)
10. Trent Richardson, RB (18.25 touches per game)

Passing Attempts (the past four weeks)

What we have learned through 8 weeks in the season, regardless of what the Cowboys and quarterback Tony Romo would like to do, the boys in big D tend to throw the ball. Romo’s numbers are bordering mediocre with only 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions over the past month, but it’s hard to deny his upside with all the weapons he has and when he’s putting it up 40 plus times a game. 

If you looking for that back-up for insurance or if you are currently struggling with a Philip Rivers or Cam Newton, going by the numbers with his 40 plus attempts per game rookie quarterback Andrew Luck is worth a look performing at a top five fantasy level the past four weeks.

 Average passing attempts:

1. Matthew Stafford, DET (46.66 passing attempts per game)
2. Tony Romo, DAL (44.00 passing attempts per game)
3. Tom Brady, NEP (41.50 passing attempts per game)
4. Drew Brees, NOS (41.33 passing attempts per game)
5. Andrew Luck, IND (41.50 passing attempts per game)
6. Matt Ryan, ATL (39.33 passing attempts per game)
7. Andy Dalton, CIN (39.00 passing attempts per game)
8. Philip Rivers, SDC (39.00 passing attempts per game)
9. Matt Hasselbeck, TEN (37.25 passing attempts per game)
10. Michael Vick, PHI (37.00 passing attempts per game)


These are the week 8 facts, By The Numbers.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: MONDAY'S FANTASY HEADLINES

Monday Edition
October 29th, 2012  

David's Daily Digest

Monday’s Fantasy Headlines

Manning the Great
There weren’t too many folks that believed we’d be seeing the old Manning return this season and maybe we haven’t, but the 2012 version looks pretty good. Sunday night against the Saints Peyton recorded his 5th straight 300-yard passing game and his three touchdowns passing were his fourth straight game with as many. Manning may not have that old form, but the form he’s working with should do just fine for fantasy owners going forward.

A Young Man’s Game
The Detroit Lions 2nd year receiver Titus Young has his coming out party on Sunday and it could not come at a better time. Young set his season highs in receptions (9), receiving yards (100), and touchdowns (2) on Sunday in the Lions win over the Seahawks. Young has quietly become a bigger part of the offense and with Nate Burleson (injury) sidelined for the remainder of the season and Megatron drawing mega coverage, Young will continue to benefit greatly and get better.

It’s Gronk Time Again
The Patriots big tight end Rob Gronkowski looked more like the Gronk from 2011 on Sunday recording his second consecutive two-score game; last season he had a total of seven multiple score games. With the bye week ahead Gronk and company will have time to heal and can be expected to continue their great play in the second half of the season.

The Rookie Finds His Legs
The Browns rookie running back Trent Richardson may not be completely healthy, but on Sunday against the Chargers he found his running legs. Richardson broke loose for 122 yards and a score on 24 carries. If this kid can get healthier, he’s in line to have more Sunday’s like this.

The Old Man Has Some Juice Left
The Broncos offense may be going a bit retro with Willis McGahee leading the backfield, but the former Miami Hurricane is showing he’s got plenty left in his tank. Sunday night against the Saints McGahee rambled his way to 122 yards on the ground and adding his fourth rushing touchdown of the season. With Peyton under center playing as well as he is, McGahee should continue to find holes and produce numbers for fantasy owners.

Dougie Fresh Gettin Down
The Buccaneers have found a ground game this season in rookie running back Doug Martin who recorded his first 100-yard rushing game last Thursday night. Martin also showed his versatility with a 79-yard receiving effort in the Bucs upset over the Vikings. Martin is quickly developing into a complete back in both the run and pass game, I’d expect to the see the Bucs getting him involved early and often.

A Lions Roar Heard on Sunday
The Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has had a rough and inconsistent start to his 2012 season, but Sunday may have just been the jump started needed to get things rolling. Against a stout Seahawks defense Stafford was better than good torching the secondary for 352 yards, completing 34 of 49 passes. Stafford added three passing scores to go with a rushing score. If Stafford can continue to find this form going forward, he should pay-off big for fantasy owners that used a high draft selection to get him.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FOOTBALL FIXX

Friday Edition

October 26th, 2012 

Friday’s Football Fixx

Fantasy Watch

With injuries playing a big part of the fantasy football season, it’s always important to stay on top of things; to know who is hurting, feeling better, practicing, returning to action, not expected to play and most importantly the impact;

Player news

Graham a game-time decision

The Saints tight end Jimmy Graham has been dealing with an ankle issue that won’t go away and will be a game-time decision for Sunday. Graham is not having a great 2012 campaign as compared to last season; he missed week 7 and caught just one pass back in week 5, just before the Saints bye. Even if he plays his effectiveness is going to be questionable.

Nelson questionable for Sunday

The Packers could be without wide receiver Jordy Nelson this Sunday when the team plays host to Jacksonville. Nelson has had the hot hand with four touchdowns in his last two starts, but he is dealing with a hamstring injury that could limit him and keep him on the sideline. With Jennings already ruled out, if Nelson sits wide receivers Randall Cobb and James Jones will be the hot play for fantasy owners.

Richardson could play Sunday

The Browns rookie running back Trent Richardson has been battling nagging injuries much of the season and his sore ribs could keep him off the gridiron this Sunday. Richardson has managed to make it through three days of practice this week, but he is still a big question mark for Sunday. If Richardson sits, back Montario Hardesty is ready to fill the void against the Chargers stout run defense.

Johnson probable for Sunday

The Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson was limited in practice this week, but he is listed as probable on the injury reports and appears to be in no danger of missing time. He has a tough matchup this week facing the Seahawks corners, but he is Megatron and needs to be started every week.

Pettigrew expected to start

The Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew is listed as probable on the injury report, but figures to start this Sunday against the Seahawks. The Seahawks do a great job against opposing wide receivers, but allow the 16^th most fantasy points to tight ends, so the Lions will definitely need Pettigrew on the field.

Nicks looks ready for Sunday

The Giants wide receiver Hakeem Nicks was able to practice in full on Friday with no issues. He is listed as probable on the injury reports and figures to start against the Cowboys this Sunday. The Giants will need a healthy Nicks to match up with the Cowboys stingy secondary that allows the 4^th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.

Lynch puts in full practice

The Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch turned in a full week of practice and looks set for a Beast-mode Sunday against the Lions. Lynch ranks in the top 10 for fantasy running backs, but will have his work cut out this Sunday facing a Lions defense that has allows the 5^th fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Thursday Edition
October 25th, 2012

David’s Daily Digest

Week 8 Fantasy Notes:

With the Packers losing wide receiver Greg Jennings (sports hernia surgery) for an extended period, wideout Randall Cobb gets a big boost to his fantasy value. The exciting playmaking receiver has blossomed over the past several weeks in Jennings absence. Cobb has averaged 6 receptions and 90 yards receiving in his last three games and he has added three touchdowns in the same stretch. Going forward fantasy owners can play him with confidence.

With Rashard Mendenhall not practicing and Issac Redmen limited on Thursday, it looks like the Steelers will once again be turning to running back Jonathan Dwyer. Coming off a strong 122-yard performance a week ago Dwyer looks fixed to carry the brunt of the load on Sunday against the Redskins. Facing the leagues 7th ranked run defense that allows the 11th fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, Dwyer appears to be nothing more than a week 8 flex option at best.

Quarterback Philip Rivers struggled in the second half of the Chargers Monday night matchup against the Broncos back in Week 6, but with the Browns next on the slate the road to recovery looks well on its’ way. The Browns defense is ranked 26th against the pass and they have surrendered the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. After his four interception performance in week 6, this matchup may be just what Rivers needs.

Two weeks ago on Monday night the Broncos wide receiver Demaryrius Thomas was relatively quiet against the Chargers defense finishing the night with just two catches. He did manage a score, but his output was far less than what owners were looking for. This Sunday the Broncos will host the Saints and Thomas could be looking at a much more productivity. The Saints are ranked 30th versus the pass and allow the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

The Browns rookie running back Trent Richardson has looked better this week in practice according to head coach Pat Shurmur, but given his recent history of inconsistency and prone to injury he remains a high risk this week for fantasy owners. The Browns will host the Chargers this Sunday and should Richardson make it on the field he’ll face the leagues’ 3rd ranked run defense that only allows 3.5 yards per carry and has surrendered just two rushing touchdowns this season; not a good matchup.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: MONDAY MORNING HUDDLE

Monday Edition

October 22nd, 2012 

Monday Morning Huddle

Week 7 Fantasy Headlines

V-Jax Emerging Among the Elite

On Sunday against the Saints shoddy secondary wide receiver Vincent Jackson continued his hot hand, adding 7 receptions for over 200 yards receiving with a touchdown grab. In his last three starts V-Jax has tallied 17 catches for 382 yards receiving (a 22.8 yards per catch average), and four touchdowns. Jackson has scored five times this season, including a touchdown in each of his last three games and now ranks among the leaders in yards receiving (5^th) and touchdowns (T-4^th). He’s a man on fire and looks to continue this trend in week 8 when Tampa Bay visits the Vikings.

Andrew Luck Can Also Use His Legs

There has been so much made about Andrew Luck, his arm, and his head as he makes the transition from college to pro, but something some may have overlooked is his mobility and ability to use his legs. Before Sunday this season Luck had been exception at home throwing six touchdowns and passing for an average of nearly 300 yards per game. Against the Browns on Sunday, Luck showed not only can he beat you with his arm, but he can also use his legs rushing for two scores to lead the Colts to victory. Luck has accounted for 8 scores in four home games and improved his home record to 3-1 this season; nothing like home-cooking.

RGIII Playing Beyond His Years

It was a tough loss for the Redskins on Sunday falling to the Giants, but one thing learned (if you didn’t already know) this Griffin kid is something special. It was not one of his more prolific statistical game, but RGIII did an outstanding job managing the offense and making plays with his leg when he had to; his Sunday line 258 yards pass, 89 yards rush, two touchdowns (pass) and two turnovers. In spite of some of his rookie tendencies, he still gave his team a chance handling the pressure of late game heroics and making the necessary plays to win. He did just that and it was his defense let him down on Sunday.

Aaron Rodger Returning To Form

In the Packers first five games this season quarterback Aaron Rodgers tossed a total of 10 touchdowns, in his past two starts he has nine. Rodgers and the Packers aerial attack at starting to resemble more and more like the 2011 team that went 15-1. They still have a few issues in the backfield to sort out, but as long as Rodgers continues to play at his elite level, the Packers will always have a chance and will figure into the scheme of things come January.

Fantasy Stock Notes

On the Rise

The Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman has had the hot hand of late passing for 299 yards or more in his last three starts, including 420 yards on Sunday against the Saints. Freeman has also collected 7 passing touchdowns in his last three starts while scoring 15, 29, and 34 fantasy (standard scoring) points respectively.

The Steelers backfield is currently ailing and banged up, emerge running back Jonathan Dwyer. With Mendenhall and Redman sidelined, Dwyer took the reins and rambled for 122 yards on the ground Sunday night against the Bengals. With the Steelers running game grounded much for the season, Dwyer gave it signs of life and could figure more prominently moving forward. His 100 yards were a first for the team this season.

The Packers may have found themselves a new weapon in wide receiver Randall Cobb, making them even more dangerous when Greg Jennings returns. In his last four starts Cobb has averaged 6.5 receptions, 84.7 yards receiving, and has scored three times, including twice last Sunday. Cobb has shown he is a true playmaker and you can bet the Packers will continue to keep him involved in the game plan moving forward.

Falling

The Browns rookie running back Trent Richardson is quickly falling out of favor from fantasy owners as his stock continues to plummet. Richardson again exited from a game early on Sunday, finishing the day with just 8 yards rushing (nothing a fantasy owner wants to see). Richardson has been hampered with nagging injuries thus far this season and has hardly played enough to showcase anything to get excited about. In his seven starts he finished with less than 60 yards of offense four times scoring just once in those games.

The Colts speedy receiver Donnie Avery continues to see looks every week, averaging nearly 9 targets per game, but the numbers are just not there. He has just one 100-yard receiving game this season in six tries and has only broke 60 or more yards just one other time. His lack of production in recent weeks has sent his stock plunging to the bottom of the barrel. He’s no longer lineup worthy (even as a flex) until he breaks from his current slump.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

Sunday Edition
October 21st, 2012  

Sunday Morning Gametime

Some quick fantasy notes for Sunday week 7, who is out there (playing today) and who is not (ruled OUT);

The Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw will play today against the Redskins and should be the focal points of the Giants 9th ranked running attack. Bradshaw is coming off back-to-back 100 yard performances; including 200 yards in week 5.

The Saints will be without tight end Jimmy Graham today, paving the way for back up Dave Thomas. Thomas has only two catches this season, so it’s a stretch to expect him to suddenly blossom into one of Brees’ go-to receivers. Graham’s absence mean Marques Colston and Lance Moore should see more targets today.

Running backs Rashard Mendenhall and Issac Redman will be sidelined tonight against the Bengals, opening the door for Jonathan Dwyer who will get the start. Dwyer has only 24 carries this season and is averaging a pedestrian 2.9 yards per carry, but does face the Bengals 21st ranked run defense tonight. Bengals have allowed 8 rushing touchdowns this season.

Running back Trent Richardson will play today versus the Colts and will wear a flak jacket to protect his injured ribs. Richardson has 340 yards rushing with four touchdowns this season and faces the Colts 29th ranked run defense. The Colts allow 159 yards on the ground and have given up 8 rushing touchdowns through six games.

The Packers tight end Jermichael Finley is expected to be on the field today versus the Rams. Last week against the Texans Finley caught just two passes for 12 yards in a game where Rodgers completed 24 for 338 (yards). Finley’s been much of a now show this season with one touchdown through six games. With so many weapons at his finger tips Rodgers is not likely to force any extra throws to his tight end today, but as always with the explosive Packers passing game Finley is always a favorite in the red zone.

The Saints will have Lance Moore back today and with Jimm Graham sidelined he could be very active right away. Moore has always been a Brees favorite in the red zone with 10 touchdowns in his last 18 games played. Moore is also second on the team this season with 19 receptions for 287 yards.

Terrell Suggs will be active today versus the Texans, but coming off his Achilles injury and not having some of the other keys players on defense his presence may only be a temporary emotional lift. The Texans have too many weapons on offense and the Ravens just may not have the horses to keep up; the Ravens defense could struggle quite a bit today.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FOUR HORSEMEN

Saturday Edition
October 13th, 2012  

The Four Horsemen

With five weeks in the books you would think this would be easy, but deciding on who to start or who you like every week becomes an ever increasing daunting task for most fantasy owners. I am here to agree it’s a tough guessing game, but I will at least offer you some insight to support your decision.

My week 6 fantasy picks…

Quarterback (Matthew Stafford, DET)

No one is perfect and certainly quarterback Matt Stafford has been far from it this season, especially when you compare his 2011 breakout season, but could this be the week he gets on track. The Lions are on the road this week and despite their 1-3 record their offense has not been all bad this season. Through six weeks Stafford’s 295 yards passing per game ranks 7th in the league and he is completing nearly 66% of his passes. Stafford has only three touchdown tosses this season, but could have extra time this Sunday to throw facing an Eagles defense that has only registered 7 sacks. Given time in the pocket Stafford has the weapons to do considerable damage and with one of the leagues’ elite pass catchers in Calvin Johnson, it could be a long day for the Eagles secondary.

Running Back (Trent Richardson, CLE)

The season is young and we really haven’t seen all this kid in Cleveland, Trent Richardson can do. He has only 303 yards rushing this season through five games, but he is coming off a solid performance against the Giants in week 5 and has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four games. This Sunday he’ll take on the Bengals 19th ranked run defense that is allowing better than four yards per tote and has surrendered seven rushing touchdowns this season (3rd most in the league). With the home crowd on the sideline, Richardson is expected to carry what sounds to be the lions-share of the load on Sunday and fantasy owners could reap great rewards.

Wide Receiver (Michael Crabtree, SF)

The Niners offense has suddenly sprung into action in the 2012 season and one of the big reasons is the emergence of Michael Crabtree. The former first rounder in the 2009 NFL draft (10th overall pick) has blossomed into a very effective receiving weapon for quarterback Alex Smith and the Niners offense. Crabtree so far in the 2012 season has 27 receptions for 311 yards with a touchdown and is quickly becoming a regular fantasy starter for most owners. His numbers are nice, but owners would definitely love to see a little more consistency before promoting him to the next level. Matchup with a very suspect and banged up 22nd ranked secondary, Crabtree looks ready to leap to the next tier.

Tight End (Martellus Bennett, NYG)

The Niners defense does appear formidable on paper as well as on the field, but despite what all the signals are telling us, their does appear to be a few chinks in the armor. In five games this season, the defense has been beat by opposing tight ends for four scores this season. Now a Giant the former Cowboys tight end Martellus Bennett is quickly becoming a Red-Zone favorite for quarterback Eli Manning and the Giants offense. Bennett has scored three times this season and with 30 targets already (second on the team) he figures to get his share of chances on Sunday.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY GAMETIME

Sunday Edition
October 7th, 2012
  

Sunday Morning Gametime

Some quick fantasy notes for Sunday week 5, who to play and who should stay (on your bench);

The Browns are down a couple of receivers today, including Mohamed Massaquoi, so expect to see rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden riding the legs of rookie running back Trent Richardson. The Giants allow more than 4 yards per carry and nearly 120 yards on the ground, start Richardson today.

The Packers will travel to Indy today, but will be without the services of wide receiver Greg Jennings. Facing the Colts secondary that has only one pick this season and struggles to get pressure on the quarterback, Rodgers will still have plenty of weapons including wide receiver James Jones. Jones should be considered a safe flex play today.

While the Falcons defense has been improved this season, there have been some leaks in their ground defense. With a full endorsement from his head coach Mike Shanahan, running back Alfred Morris should find a few holes today against the leagues 29th ranked run defense.

The Packers may rely more on their ground game today and with a banger like Cedric Benson, the team has plenty of confidence to get him the rock. Running back James Starks is inactive once again, so lining up against the leagues 25th ranked run defense it will be the Benson show. He’s a nice RB2 start today.

Just as expected with Nicks and Barden on the shelf today, Hixon looks to be the hot play in Jersey against the Browns. Expect to see Eli look for Hixon often today against the Browns suspect secondary. Hixon is a great flex or low-end WR2 in deeper leagues today.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAYS TAKE

Thursday Edition

September 27th, 2012 

Thursdays Take

Starts

The Ravens quarterback has looked solid this season and with a favorable matchup tonight against the Browns tonight he should continue his hot hand. The Browns defense has been torched for eight touchdowns and nearly 270 yards per game this season, expect Flacco to use his no huddle to keep the defense off balance  and with sound ground game he should be effective over-the-top; he’s a must start tonight.

The Ravens running back Ray Rice has been a solid fantasy play and one of the most consistent options dating back to last year. Rice has totaled 395 yards of offense and scored three times this season, facing the league’s 22^nd ranked run defense tonight he should be good for another 100 yards plus night and a score. His 14 receptions through three games this season also make him a most attractive option in PPR leagues; he’s so good that he’s almost good enough to start during his bye week (but we wouldn’t).

The rookie running back Trent Richardson is off to a slow start this season, but now that his health is back he should see plenty of opportunity tonight against a Ravens defense that is ranked 18^th in the league. The Ravens are surrendering more than 100 yards per game on the ground, but their 3.3 yards per carry average mean Richardson is going to have to work for his. The rookie also has 11 catches this season, so he’ll also be productive in the pass game. He’s not in line for a monster game, but he should be more than serviceable as a low end RB2 this.

Sits

Rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden could have plenty of success completing passes for lots of yards, but facing a tough foe like the Ravens defense he's likely to take a number if hits and sacks. The Ravens could jump out quick in this one and force Weeden to have to put the ball up early and often. Expect too many turnovers tonight to be a good fantasy play; leave him on your bench.

Browns’ wide receiver Greg Little has been more than inconsistent and a disappointment as a fantasy option this season, but then again being a part of the Browns offense expectations were never that high. His recent struggles include drops (2^nd in NFL in 2011) and it sounds like he may see little time on the field tonight, if any. He appears to be one fantasy option worth avoiding at this time.

By David Ortega