FSH NOTEBOOK: BY THE NUMBERS

Tuesday Edition
October 30th, 2012  

By the Numbers

When you know all the facts, there’s no escaping the truth and numbers seldom lie. Taking a look at how players are performing in fantasy scoring is typically in direct proportion to their opportunity. The more chances afforded a player the more likely he will produce. If you are a gambler, you like to play with the odds that are in your favor.

Here’s the week 8 breakdown of the numbers….

Targets (the past four weeks)

Over the past month, some names of notable mention include Mike Williams (TB), Titus Young (DET), and Cecil Shorts (JAX). These are not your regular household names, but increased involvement has made them more than relevant over the past several weeks. 

A couple of names that could be joining the conversation soon could include Jeremy Kerley and Andre Roberts. Both are top 30 WR’s over the past four weeks, but could see a production boost if their target numbers continue. At the moment, neither is nothing more than a possible flex option fill, but keep watching.

Weekly Target average:

1. Brandon Marshall, WR (13.66 targets per game)
2. Reggie Wayne, WR (13.00 targets per game)
3. Marques Colston, WR (12.66 targets per game)
4. Steve Smith (CAR), WR (12.66 targets per game)
5. Wes Welker, WR (11.50 targets per game)
6. Larry Fitzgerald, WR (11.25 targets per game)
7. Percy Harvin, WR (10.25 targets per game)
8. Victor Cruz, WR (10.00 targets per game)
9. Jeremy Kerley, WR (9.25 targets per game)
 T-10. Andre Roberts, WR (9.00 targets per game)
Mike Wallace, WR (9.00 targets per game)

Some additional PPR numbers…

Top targeted RB’s past four weeks

1. Darren Sproles, NO (6.66 targets per game)
2. Fred Jackson, BUF (6.00 targets per game)
3. Darren McFadden, OAK (5.66 targets per game)
3. Ryan Matthews, SDC (5.66 targets per game)
3. Rashad Jennings, JAX (5.66 targets per game)
3. Ronnie Brown, SDC (5.66 targets per game)

Top targeted TE’s past four weeks

1. Jason Witten, DAL (12.33 targets per game)
2. Rob Gronkowski, NEP (8.75 targets per game)
3. Tony Gonzales, ATL (8.66 targets per game)
4. Brandon Pettigrew, DET (7.33 targets per game)
5. Antonio Gates, SDC (7.00 targets per game)
5. Heath Miller, PIT (7.00 targets per game)

Touches (the past four weeks)

An important factor in a running back’s success is developing a rhythm and building momentum during the game; for some the more touches the better they get. These are the most active in the backfield over the past month.

While his numbers have not been strong the past couple of weeks Alex Green gets plenty of work, enough to keep him in the top 25 (over the past month). Like Green in Green Bay, Shonn Greene in New York has been seeing plenty of action himself. His workload has help him produce at a top 5 level for the past weeks and has shot him up the board inside the top 15 for the season. With Richardson returning in week 8 and running well, with this average fantasy owners can expect to see his production also rise.

Average Carries with Catches:

1. Darren McFadden, RB (28.66 touches per game)
2. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB (25.00 touches per game)
3. Arian Foster, RB (22.66 touches per game)
4. Adrian Peterson, RB (21.25 touches per game)
5. Alex Green, RB (20.75 touches per game)
6. Chris Johnson, RB (20.25 touches per game)
7. Stevan Ridley, RB (19.25 touches per game)
8. Shonn Greene, RB (20.00 touches per game)
9. Alfred Morris, RB (18.25 touches per game)
10. Trent Richardson, RB (18.25 touches per game)

Passing Attempts (the past four weeks)

What we have learned through 8 weeks in the season, regardless of what the Cowboys and quarterback Tony Romo would like to do, the boys in big D tend to throw the ball. Romo’s numbers are bordering mediocre with only 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions over the past month, but it’s hard to deny his upside with all the weapons he has and when he’s putting it up 40 plus times a game. 

If you looking for that back-up for insurance or if you are currently struggling with a Philip Rivers or Cam Newton, going by the numbers with his 40 plus attempts per game rookie quarterback Andrew Luck is worth a look performing at a top five fantasy level the past four weeks.

 Average passing attempts:

1. Matthew Stafford, DET (46.66 passing attempts per game)
2. Tony Romo, DAL (44.00 passing attempts per game)
3. Tom Brady, NEP (41.50 passing attempts per game)
4. Drew Brees, NOS (41.33 passing attempts per game)
5. Andrew Luck, IND (41.50 passing attempts per game)
6. Matt Ryan, ATL (39.33 passing attempts per game)
7. Andy Dalton, CIN (39.00 passing attempts per game)
8. Philip Rivers, SDC (39.00 passing attempts per game)
9. Matt Hasselbeck, TEN (37.25 passing attempts per game)
10. Michael Vick, PHI (37.00 passing attempts per game)


These are the week 8 facts, By The Numbers.

By David Ortega