Tuesday Edition
December 4th, 2012
David’s Daily Digest
Alex Green Value on the Rise
The recent rumor circulating concerning the Packers backfield, running back James Starks could be done for the season. Starks suffered a knee injury on Sunday and the word going round is it could shut him down for the remainder of the season. This is all just speculation at this time, but if Starks is done running back Alex Green will lead the parade in the Packers backfield. It’s no secret the Packers throw the ball, so even running a solo show Green is no more than a safe flex.
Luck is a Lock for the Fantasy Post Season
The Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has scored no fewer than 15 fantasy points (standard scoring) in each of his last three starts, including 36 points last Sunday on the road against the Lions. This week Luck is at home (where he’s been consistent) and he is matching up against the Titans 25th ranked pass defense that allows the 8th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Unless you have better options, Luck should be in your lineup this week.
Tight End Brandon Pettigrew Seeing More Action
The Lions have placed wide receiver Titus Young on injured reserve and with Ryan Broyles also on the IR, tight end Brandon Pettigrew will likely see more action going forward. Currently Pettigrew is second (by far) on the team with 99 targets this season and has been targeted 39 times in his last four games. The Lions face the Packers on Sunday night in what could likely turn out to be a shootout and another busy game for Pettigrew. The Lions tight end is a mid level TE1 this week and should be in your lineup.
Wide Receiver Dez Bryant Rising with the Cream
The Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant has emerged into a bonafide fantasy stud this season. Throughout the course of the season Bryant has had his nice games and solid outings, but in the last three weeks he’s elevated to a new platform among the elite. In his last three starts Bryant has caught 26 passes for 388 yards and five touchdowns; he’s also scored in four straight games. Bryant is a must start and top five WR right in time for the fantasy postseason.
Tight End Brandon Myers is in Play this Week
The Raiders tight end Brandon Myers is coming off a huge game in week 13 versus the Browns; 14 receptions, 130 yards receiving, and a touchdown. Myers has clearly become one of quarterback Carson Palmer’s favorite targets; 51 targets in his last five games. This week Myers will face the Broncos secondary that has proven to be susceptible to opposing tight ends. The Broncos allow the 2nd most fantasy points to tight ends and have surrendered 9 touchdowns. If you’ve been riding the Myers train recently, stay onboard, week 14 should be a good trip.
These are just a few of my takes for week 14.
By David Ortega
Tuesday Edition
October 30th, 2012
By the Numbers
When you know all the facts, there’s no escaping the truth and numbers seldom lie. Taking a look at how players are performing in fantasy scoring is typically in direct proportion to their opportunity. The more chances afforded a player the more likely he will produce. If you are a gambler, you like to play with the odds that are in your favor.
Here’s the week 8 breakdown of the numbers….
Targets (the past four weeks)
Over the past month, some names of notable mention include Mike Williams (TB), Titus Young (DET), and Cecil Shorts (JAX). These are not your regular household names, but increased involvement has made them more than relevant over the past several weeks.
A couple of names that could be joining the conversation soon could include Jeremy Kerley and Andre Roberts. Both are top 30 WR’s over the past four weeks, but could see a production boost if their target numbers continue. At the moment, neither is nothing more than a possible flex option fill, but keep watching.
Weekly Target average:
1. Brandon Marshall, WR (13.66 targets per game)
2. Reggie Wayne, WR (13.00 targets per game)
3. Marques Colston, WR (12.66 targets per game)
4. Steve Smith (CAR), WR (12.66 targets per game)
5. Wes Welker, WR (11.50 targets per game)
6. Larry Fitzgerald, WR (11.25 targets per game)
7. Percy Harvin, WR (10.25 targets per game)
8. Victor Cruz, WR (10.00 targets per game)
9. Jeremy Kerley, WR (9.25 targets per game)
T-10. Andre Roberts, WR (9.00 targets per game)
Mike Wallace, WR (9.00 targets per game)
Some additional PPR numbers…
Top targeted RB’s past four weeks
1. Darren Sproles, NO (6.66 targets per game)
2. Fred Jackson, BUF (6.00 targets per game)
3. Darren McFadden, OAK (5.66 targets per game)
3. Ryan Matthews, SDC (5.66 targets per game)
3. Rashad Jennings, JAX (5.66 targets per game)
3. Ronnie Brown, SDC (5.66 targets per game)
Top targeted TE’s past four weeks
1. Jason Witten, DAL (12.33 targets per game)
2. Rob Gronkowski, NEP (8.75 targets per game)
3. Tony Gonzales, ATL (8.66 targets per game)
4. Brandon Pettigrew, DET (7.33 targets per game)
5. Antonio Gates, SDC (7.00 targets per game)
5. Heath Miller, PIT (7.00 targets per game)
Touches (the past four weeks)
An important factor in a running back’s success is developing a rhythm and building momentum during the game; for some the more touches the better they get. These are the most active in the backfield over the past month.
While his numbers have not been strong the past couple of weeks Alex Green gets plenty of work, enough to keep him in the top 25 (over the past month). Like Green in Green Bay, Shonn Greene in New York has been seeing plenty of action himself. His workload has help him produce at a top 5 level for the past weeks and has shot him up the board inside the top 15 for the season. With Richardson returning in week 8 and running well, with this average fantasy owners can expect to see his production also rise.
Average Carries with Catches:
1. Darren McFadden, RB (28.66 touches per game)
2. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB (25.00 touches per game)
3. Arian Foster, RB (22.66 touches per game)
4. Adrian Peterson, RB (21.25 touches per game)
5. Alex Green, RB (20.75 touches per game)
6. Chris Johnson, RB (20.25 touches per game)
7. Stevan Ridley, RB (19.25 touches per game)
8. Shonn Greene, RB (20.00 touches per game)
9. Alfred Morris, RB (18.25 touches per game)
10. Trent Richardson, RB (18.25 touches per game)
Passing Attempts (the past four weeks)
What we have learned through 8 weeks in the season, regardless of what the Cowboys and quarterback Tony Romo would like to do, the boys in big D tend to throw the ball. Romo’s numbers are bordering mediocre with only 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions over the past month, but it’s hard to deny his upside with all the weapons he has and when he’s putting it up 40 plus times a game.
If you looking for that back-up for insurance or if you are currently struggling with a Philip Rivers or Cam Newton, going by the numbers with his 40 plus attempts per game rookie quarterback Andrew Luck is worth a look performing at a top five fantasy level the past four weeks.
Average passing attempts:
1. Matthew Stafford, DET (46.66 passing attempts per game)
2. Tony Romo, DAL (44.00 passing attempts per game)
3. Tom Brady, NEP (41.50 passing attempts per game)
4. Drew Brees, NOS (41.33 passing attempts per game)
5. Andrew Luck, IND (41.50 passing attempts per game)
6. Matt Ryan, ATL (39.33 passing attempts per game)
7. Andy Dalton, CIN (39.00 passing attempts per game)
8. Philip Rivers, SDC (39.00 passing attempts per game)
9. Matt Hasselbeck, TEN (37.25 passing attempts per game)
10. Michael Vick, PHI (37.00 passing attempts per game)
These are the week 8 facts, By The Numbers.
By David Ortega
