FSH NOTEBOOK: SFFL WEEK 13

Saturday Edition
December 1st, 2012  

Suicide Fantasy Football

Week 13

What a mess it was in my backfield last week with running backs Jonathan Dwyer and Ronnie Hillman. Dwyer becomes part of the fumbling parade and Hillman hardly makes it off the sideline, just three carries for 9 yards. 

Despite the disparity at the running back position my week 12 lineup survived with some solid play at the wide receiver position (Dez Bryant-35.10 points, Justin Blackman-18.40 points) as well as a few other spots. Tight end Jacob Tamme chipped in with 14.80 points (4 receptions, 48 yards, 1 touchdown) and the Rams defense was solid with 18 points (2 sacks, 4 interceptions).

All in all my picks last week move my team up the charts and we are back in the top twenty this week at 19. With the season now running out of weeks (just four left) it’s time to make a big push up the charts.

Here’s my week 13 picks;

My Line-up 

Quarterback:
The Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has been terrific in 2012, but funny his name has hardly made too many waves in some fantasy circles. Brady has thrown for 3,299 yards (5th in the NFL) this season and tossed 24 touchdowns (4th) to just three interceptions. Brady once again ranks at the top with the best passers in the league and with a matchup this Sunday against the Dolphins 26th ranked pass defense he looks to only improve his incredible numbers. The Dolphins defense allows the 12th most fantasy points to quarterbacks, something that will surely rise after Sunday.

Running Backs:
No repeat of week 12 here with Eagles running back Bryce Brown. With LeSean McCoy still laid up, Brown will get the start on Sunday against the Cowboys 13th ranked run defense. Last Monday night Brown tore through the Panthers run defense for 178 yards, something that will be difficult to repeat, but with Mike Vick still on the sidelines the Eagles will once again lean on the ground game. Brown is a safe start this week for my lineup and a nice flex option or low value RB2 against the Cowboys who allow the 16th most fantasy points to running backs.

My other ball carrier this week is the Giants Ahmad Bradshaw and this start could not come at a better time. Bradshaw appears to be the healthiest he’s been all season and with Andre Brown on IR Bradshaw is likely to see extra duties in the red zone. This week Bradshaw faces the Redskins 3rd ranked run defense, a tough matchup, but Bradshaw will contribute on the ground and in the air (61 receiving yards last week); a dual threat Bradshaw is favorable flex.

Wide Receivers:
It’s time to ride the hot hands of Jaguars wide receiver Cecil Shorts and why not, this week he’s facing the Bills 18th ranked pass defense that allows the 11th most fantasy points to wide receivers. Shorts is riding a three game scoring streak and will have an excellent shot at extending to four against the secondary that has 14 touchdowns to wide receivers this season. 

My other wide out this week is Lions wide receiver Ryan Broyles. He had a hot hand last week playing in the shadow of Megatron; Broyles finished last Thursday’s game with six catches for 126 yards. The rookie receiver posted nice numbers that may be difficult to duplicate, but with Megatron on the other side drawing much attention, Broyles figures to see plenty of action (12 targets last week). The Lions face the Colts this week meaning Broyles will have a shot at the Indy’s 19th ranked pass defense that allows the 5th most fantasy points to receivers. Megatron figures to take advantage on Sunday, but look for Broyles to grab his share as a low value WR3 or flex this week. 

Tight End:
The Giants meet the Redskins on Monday and tight end Martellus Bennett is hoping to have a repeat performance to his week 7 showing (against the Redskins). Bennett has been up and down this season, but could figure prominently against the Redskins 31st ranked pass defense that allows the 2nd most fantasy points to tight ends. Bennett is low end TE1 in deeper formats this week.

Place Kicker:
This is always a position that is a tough read most of the time, but this week I will play the odds and roll with the Cowboys place kicker Dan Bailey. Playing at home this week, the Cowboys have not necessarily enjoyed the sweet taste of home cooking, so struggles in the red zone could arise. The Cowboys will face a struggling Eagles team that could give up plenty of yards, but make finding the end zone troublesome; I like Bailey to chip in a handful on Sunday.

Team Defense:
With the offense having to settle for kicks, the Cowboys defense is going to have to come up big on Sunday. This should be something easier done than usual with the Eagles coming to town less quarterback Michael Vick, running back LeSean McCoy, and wide receiver DeSean Jackson. I am looking for the Cowboys D to pin it’s ear back and make plenty of plays on Sunday against an Eagles offense that allows the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing defenses.

These are my picks for week 13.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Thursday Edition

November 2nd, 2012

David’s Daily Digest

Sproles Out with Hand Injury

The Saints will be without running back Darren Sproles (hand) this Monday night when they face the Philadelphia Eagles. Sproles underwent surgery for a broken hand and will be unavailable for Monday’s matchup. With Sproles out, running back Pierre Thomas will see a boost in his fantasy value and likely an increased workload against the Eagles. Thomas should make a nice flex play for week 9.

Jones to Get Another Start

The Cowboys have ruled out running back DeMarco Murray for Sunday, meaning back Felix Jones is expected to start once again. Jones (knee) is listed as probable and expected to play in the Sunday night primetime matchup against the Falcons. Jones has not done a whole lot the past couple of games, but could be more of a factor against the Falcons 26^th ranked run defense. Jones is nothing more than an iffy flex option for this week.

Nelson Will Be a Game-Time Decision

Wide receiver Jordy Nelson (hamstring) is expected to be a game-time decision, although he was able to do some work. It’s sounding more like there’s a good chance that Nelson could be on the field, but owners will have to wait until Sunday morning to find out. Even when a healthy Nelson has played wide receiver Randall Cobb has been effective. If you are looking for a strong flex play, Cobb could fit the bill this week against the Cardinals.

Robinson Probable for Sunday Versus Lions

The Jaguars could see the return of wide receiver Laurent Robinson this Sunday against the Lions. Robinson has missed the past three games due to injury and in the three games he has played he’s been a non-factor. Wide receiver Cecil Shorts has really emerged as the current go-to guy, so don’t expect much this week from Robinson if he does return.

Dwyer Doubtful for Sunday

With both Mendenhall (Achilles) and running back Jonathan Dwyer (quad) listed as doubtful for Sunday, it appears Issac Redman is in line to start for the Steelers. Redman himself is nursing an ankle injury, but is expected to play Sunday and will get the start with Dwyer sidelined. Although Redman gets a good week 9 matchup (against the Giants 19^th ranked run defense) this Sunday, he has missed the past couple of weeks and will likely split carries. Play him at your own risk.

Tannehill Uncertain for Sunday

The Dolphins could be without the services of their rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, whose status remains uncertain for Sunday against the Colts. Tannehill suffered a knee injury last week and has been limited in practice this week. If Tannehill can’t go back up quarterback Matt Moore would get the start. The Colts have fared well against the pass this season, so whether it’s Tannehill or Moore, any fantasy value for the Dolphins would come from the run game; the Colts rank 27^th against the run this season.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WATERCOOLER CHAT

Wednesday Edition
October 31st, 2012  

Watercooler Chat

“Just Talking Fantasy”

Waiver Wire Wanderers

We are moving deeper into the fantasy season and there’s no time to waste or let up. The free agent pool is thinning more and more every week, but even when it is there are still a few gems to be found.

After eight weeks of action and still a number of weeks left to manage through the byes, fantasy owners can’t afford to let any hidden jewels slip through the cracks. Last Sunday there were quite a few notable diamonds in the rough worth a take this week, at least as a flex option.

Leading the short list is the Lions wide receiver Titus Young. Injuries have moved Young up the depth chart and with Matt Stafford steadily finding his groove Young is going to see more action going forward. Young has 17 targets in his last two games and he’s made the most of it with 15 receptions.

Like Young, Jaguars wide receivers Cecil Shorts is getting more time in a prominent role due to injuries and he is cashing in. Shorts has seen 22 targets in the last two weeks and he’s been golden with 12 receptions, 195 yards receiving and a score. As a flex his numbers are solid, but he’s getting better every week, so there’s upside.

The Seahawks passing game has been relatively non-existent this season, but one of the bright spots has been the recent emergence of Sidney Rice; a forgotten man. Rice has been quiet much of the season, but last Sunday he had his best game with 6 grabs for 55 yards and touchdown. These numbers won’t burn down the house, but Rice has great ability and offers tremendous upside as the quarterback play in Seattle gets better. He’s nothing more than a consideration as a flex option, but if you can hold him for a while he could pay off in the long run.

One ground gainers that could be still hanging around this week is the Steelers running back Jonathan Dwyer. Dwyer has been the best runner for the Steelers this season and now that he’s had his chance he is shinning. Dwyer has rushed for over 100 yards the past two weeks as the starter. He could see his carries drop some with the backfield getting healthy, but he’s too good and playing too well to take a back seat. Grab him if you can.


Don’t Go Sleeping

If you have the room on your roster or if you play in a deeper league a couple of backs that are definitely worth stashing are the Falcons running back Jacquizz Rodgers and the Broncos rookie running back Ronnie Hillman.

Rodgers is likely to payoff sooner rather than later. With as well as the Falcons are playing now, they will want to keep running back Michael Turner fresh as possible for their playoff run. Head Coach Mike Smith has plenty of confidence in Rodgers, so it is expected to see Rodgers’ role grow more and more as the season progresses. Rodgers is coming off his biggest performance last Sunday; 80 total yards and 13 touches.

The Broncos seem to be bringing Hillman along slowly and his progress has been showing. Last Sunday night he had his best game with 15 touches and 86 rushing yards. With the 31-year old McGahee leading the Broncos ground attack, it’s not a big stretch to think that Hillman will get worked in more and more to keep the Veteran fresh for the season stretch run. Hillman is improving and more Sundays like the last could be in store.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: BY THE NUMBERS

Tuesday Edition
October 30th, 2012  

By the Numbers

When you know all the facts, there’s no escaping the truth and numbers seldom lie. Taking a look at how players are performing in fantasy scoring is typically in direct proportion to their opportunity. The more chances afforded a player the more likely he will produce. If you are a gambler, you like to play with the odds that are in your favor.

Here’s the week 8 breakdown of the numbers….

Targets (the past four weeks)

Over the past month, some names of notable mention include Mike Williams (TB), Titus Young (DET), and Cecil Shorts (JAX). These are not your regular household names, but increased involvement has made them more than relevant over the past several weeks. 

A couple of names that could be joining the conversation soon could include Jeremy Kerley and Andre Roberts. Both are top 30 WR’s over the past four weeks, but could see a production boost if their target numbers continue. At the moment, neither is nothing more than a possible flex option fill, but keep watching.

Weekly Target average:

1. Brandon Marshall, WR (13.66 targets per game)
2. Reggie Wayne, WR (13.00 targets per game)
3. Marques Colston, WR (12.66 targets per game)
4. Steve Smith (CAR), WR (12.66 targets per game)
5. Wes Welker, WR (11.50 targets per game)
6. Larry Fitzgerald, WR (11.25 targets per game)
7. Percy Harvin, WR (10.25 targets per game)
8. Victor Cruz, WR (10.00 targets per game)
9. Jeremy Kerley, WR (9.25 targets per game)
 T-10. Andre Roberts, WR (9.00 targets per game)
Mike Wallace, WR (9.00 targets per game)

Some additional PPR numbers…

Top targeted RB’s past four weeks

1. Darren Sproles, NO (6.66 targets per game)
2. Fred Jackson, BUF (6.00 targets per game)
3. Darren McFadden, OAK (5.66 targets per game)
3. Ryan Matthews, SDC (5.66 targets per game)
3. Rashad Jennings, JAX (5.66 targets per game)
3. Ronnie Brown, SDC (5.66 targets per game)

Top targeted TE’s past four weeks

1. Jason Witten, DAL (12.33 targets per game)
2. Rob Gronkowski, NEP (8.75 targets per game)
3. Tony Gonzales, ATL (8.66 targets per game)
4. Brandon Pettigrew, DET (7.33 targets per game)
5. Antonio Gates, SDC (7.00 targets per game)
5. Heath Miller, PIT (7.00 targets per game)

Touches (the past four weeks)

An important factor in a running back’s success is developing a rhythm and building momentum during the game; for some the more touches the better they get. These are the most active in the backfield over the past month.

While his numbers have not been strong the past couple of weeks Alex Green gets plenty of work, enough to keep him in the top 25 (over the past month). Like Green in Green Bay, Shonn Greene in New York has been seeing plenty of action himself. His workload has help him produce at a top 5 level for the past weeks and has shot him up the board inside the top 15 for the season. With Richardson returning in week 8 and running well, with this average fantasy owners can expect to see his production also rise.

Average Carries with Catches:

1. Darren McFadden, RB (28.66 touches per game)
2. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB (25.00 touches per game)
3. Arian Foster, RB (22.66 touches per game)
4. Adrian Peterson, RB (21.25 touches per game)
5. Alex Green, RB (20.75 touches per game)
6. Chris Johnson, RB (20.25 touches per game)
7. Stevan Ridley, RB (19.25 touches per game)
8. Shonn Greene, RB (20.00 touches per game)
9. Alfred Morris, RB (18.25 touches per game)
10. Trent Richardson, RB (18.25 touches per game)

Passing Attempts (the past four weeks)

What we have learned through 8 weeks in the season, regardless of what the Cowboys and quarterback Tony Romo would like to do, the boys in big D tend to throw the ball. Romo’s numbers are bordering mediocre with only 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions over the past month, but it’s hard to deny his upside with all the weapons he has and when he’s putting it up 40 plus times a game. 

If you looking for that back-up for insurance or if you are currently struggling with a Philip Rivers or Cam Newton, going by the numbers with his 40 plus attempts per game rookie quarterback Andrew Luck is worth a look performing at a top five fantasy level the past four weeks.

 Average passing attempts:

1. Matthew Stafford, DET (46.66 passing attempts per game)
2. Tony Romo, DAL (44.00 passing attempts per game)
3. Tom Brady, NEP (41.50 passing attempts per game)
4. Drew Brees, NOS (41.33 passing attempts per game)
5. Andrew Luck, IND (41.50 passing attempts per game)
6. Matt Ryan, ATL (39.33 passing attempts per game)
7. Andy Dalton, CIN (39.00 passing attempts per game)
8. Philip Rivers, SDC (39.00 passing attempts per game)
9. Matt Hasselbeck, TEN (37.25 passing attempts per game)
10. Michael Vick, PHI (37.00 passing attempts per game)


These are the week 8 facts, By The Numbers.

By David Ortega