FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Edition
December 4th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Alex Green Value on the Rise
The recent rumor circulating concerning the Packers backfield, running back James Starks could be done for the season. Starks suffered a knee injury on Sunday and the word going round is it could shut him down for the remainder of the season. This is all just speculation at this time, but if Starks is done running back Alex Green will lead the parade in the Packers backfield. It’s no secret the Packers throw the ball, so even running a solo show Green is no more than a safe flex.

Luck is a Lock for the Fantasy Post Season
The Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has scored no fewer than 15 fantasy points (standard scoring) in each of his last three starts, including 36 points last Sunday on the road against the Lions. This week Luck is at home (where he’s been consistent) and he is matching up against the Titans 25th ranked pass defense that allows the 8th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Unless you have better options, Luck should be in your lineup this week.

Tight End Brandon Pettigrew Seeing More Action
The Lions have placed wide receiver Titus Young on injured reserve and with Ryan Broyles also on the IR, tight end Brandon Pettigrew will likely see more action going forward. Currently Pettigrew is second (by far) on the team with 99 targets this season and has been targeted 39 times in his last four games. The Lions face the Packers on Sunday night in what could likely turn out to be a shootout and another busy game for Pettigrew. The Lions tight end is a mid level TE1 this week and should be in your lineup.

Wide Receiver Dez Bryant Rising with the Cream
The Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant has emerged into a bonafide fantasy stud this season. Throughout the course of the season Bryant has had his nice games and solid outings, but in the last three weeks he’s elevated to a new platform among the elite. In his last three starts Bryant has caught 26 passes for 388 yards and five touchdowns; he’s also scored in four straight games. Bryant is a must start and top five WR right in time for the fantasy postseason.

Tight End Brandon Myers is in Play this Week
The Raiders tight end Brandon Myers is coming off a huge game in week 13 versus the Browns; 14 receptions, 130 yards receiving, and a touchdown. Myers has clearly become one of quarterback Carson Palmer’s favorite targets; 51 targets in his last five games. This week Myers will face the Broncos secondary that has proven to be susceptible to opposing tight ends. The Broncos allow the 2nd most fantasy points to tight ends and have surrendered 9 touchdowns. If you’ve been riding the Myers train recently, stay onboard, week 14 should be a good trip.

These are just a few of my takes for week 14.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WATERCOOLER CHAT

Wednesday Edition
October 31st, 2012  

Watercooler Chat

“Just Talking Fantasy”

Waiver Wire Wanderers

We are moving deeper into the fantasy season and there’s no time to waste or let up. The free agent pool is thinning more and more every week, but even when it is there are still a few gems to be found.

After eight weeks of action and still a number of weeks left to manage through the byes, fantasy owners can’t afford to let any hidden jewels slip through the cracks. Last Sunday there were quite a few notable diamonds in the rough worth a take this week, at least as a flex option.

Leading the short list is the Lions wide receiver Titus Young. Injuries have moved Young up the depth chart and with Matt Stafford steadily finding his groove Young is going to see more action going forward. Young has 17 targets in his last two games and he’s made the most of it with 15 receptions.

Like Young, Jaguars wide receivers Cecil Shorts is getting more time in a prominent role due to injuries and he is cashing in. Shorts has seen 22 targets in the last two weeks and he’s been golden with 12 receptions, 195 yards receiving and a score. As a flex his numbers are solid, but he’s getting better every week, so there’s upside.

The Seahawks passing game has been relatively non-existent this season, but one of the bright spots has been the recent emergence of Sidney Rice; a forgotten man. Rice has been quiet much of the season, but last Sunday he had his best game with 6 grabs for 55 yards and touchdown. These numbers won’t burn down the house, but Rice has great ability and offers tremendous upside as the quarterback play in Seattle gets better. He’s nothing more than a consideration as a flex option, but if you can hold him for a while he could pay off in the long run.

One ground gainers that could be still hanging around this week is the Steelers running back Jonathan Dwyer. Dwyer has been the best runner for the Steelers this season and now that he’s had his chance he is shinning. Dwyer has rushed for over 100 yards the past two weeks as the starter. He could see his carries drop some with the backfield getting healthy, but he’s too good and playing too well to take a back seat. Grab him if you can.


Don’t Go Sleeping

If you have the room on your roster or if you play in a deeper league a couple of backs that are definitely worth stashing are the Falcons running back Jacquizz Rodgers and the Broncos rookie running back Ronnie Hillman.

Rodgers is likely to payoff sooner rather than later. With as well as the Falcons are playing now, they will want to keep running back Michael Turner fresh as possible for their playoff run. Head Coach Mike Smith has plenty of confidence in Rodgers, so it is expected to see Rodgers’ role grow more and more as the season progresses. Rodgers is coming off his biggest performance last Sunday; 80 total yards and 13 touches.

The Broncos seem to be bringing Hillman along slowly and his progress has been showing. Last Sunday night he had his best game with 15 touches and 86 rushing yards. With the 31-year old McGahee leading the Broncos ground attack, it’s not a big stretch to think that Hillman will get worked in more and more to keep the Veteran fresh for the season stretch run. Hillman is improving and more Sundays like the last could be in store.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: BY THE NUMBERS

Tuesday Edition
October 30th, 2012  

By the Numbers

When you know all the facts, there’s no escaping the truth and numbers seldom lie. Taking a look at how players are performing in fantasy scoring is typically in direct proportion to their opportunity. The more chances afforded a player the more likely he will produce. If you are a gambler, you like to play with the odds that are in your favor.

Here’s the week 8 breakdown of the numbers….

Targets (the past four weeks)

Over the past month, some names of notable mention include Mike Williams (TB), Titus Young (DET), and Cecil Shorts (JAX). These are not your regular household names, but increased involvement has made them more than relevant over the past several weeks. 

A couple of names that could be joining the conversation soon could include Jeremy Kerley and Andre Roberts. Both are top 30 WR’s over the past four weeks, but could see a production boost if their target numbers continue. At the moment, neither is nothing more than a possible flex option fill, but keep watching.

Weekly Target average:

1. Brandon Marshall, WR (13.66 targets per game)
2. Reggie Wayne, WR (13.00 targets per game)
3. Marques Colston, WR (12.66 targets per game)
4. Steve Smith (CAR), WR (12.66 targets per game)
5. Wes Welker, WR (11.50 targets per game)
6. Larry Fitzgerald, WR (11.25 targets per game)
7. Percy Harvin, WR (10.25 targets per game)
8. Victor Cruz, WR (10.00 targets per game)
9. Jeremy Kerley, WR (9.25 targets per game)
 T-10. Andre Roberts, WR (9.00 targets per game)
Mike Wallace, WR (9.00 targets per game)

Some additional PPR numbers…

Top targeted RB’s past four weeks

1. Darren Sproles, NO (6.66 targets per game)
2. Fred Jackson, BUF (6.00 targets per game)
3. Darren McFadden, OAK (5.66 targets per game)
3. Ryan Matthews, SDC (5.66 targets per game)
3. Rashad Jennings, JAX (5.66 targets per game)
3. Ronnie Brown, SDC (5.66 targets per game)

Top targeted TE’s past four weeks

1. Jason Witten, DAL (12.33 targets per game)
2. Rob Gronkowski, NEP (8.75 targets per game)
3. Tony Gonzales, ATL (8.66 targets per game)
4. Brandon Pettigrew, DET (7.33 targets per game)
5. Antonio Gates, SDC (7.00 targets per game)
5. Heath Miller, PIT (7.00 targets per game)

Touches (the past four weeks)

An important factor in a running back’s success is developing a rhythm and building momentum during the game; for some the more touches the better they get. These are the most active in the backfield over the past month.

While his numbers have not been strong the past couple of weeks Alex Green gets plenty of work, enough to keep him in the top 25 (over the past month). Like Green in Green Bay, Shonn Greene in New York has been seeing plenty of action himself. His workload has help him produce at a top 5 level for the past weeks and has shot him up the board inside the top 15 for the season. With Richardson returning in week 8 and running well, with this average fantasy owners can expect to see his production also rise.

Average Carries with Catches:

1. Darren McFadden, RB (28.66 touches per game)
2. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB (25.00 touches per game)
3. Arian Foster, RB (22.66 touches per game)
4. Adrian Peterson, RB (21.25 touches per game)
5. Alex Green, RB (20.75 touches per game)
6. Chris Johnson, RB (20.25 touches per game)
7. Stevan Ridley, RB (19.25 touches per game)
8. Shonn Greene, RB (20.00 touches per game)
9. Alfred Morris, RB (18.25 touches per game)
10. Trent Richardson, RB (18.25 touches per game)

Passing Attempts (the past four weeks)

What we have learned through 8 weeks in the season, regardless of what the Cowboys and quarterback Tony Romo would like to do, the boys in big D tend to throw the ball. Romo’s numbers are bordering mediocre with only 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions over the past month, but it’s hard to deny his upside with all the weapons he has and when he’s putting it up 40 plus times a game. 

If you looking for that back-up for insurance or if you are currently struggling with a Philip Rivers or Cam Newton, going by the numbers with his 40 plus attempts per game rookie quarterback Andrew Luck is worth a look performing at a top five fantasy level the past four weeks.

 Average passing attempts:

1. Matthew Stafford, DET (46.66 passing attempts per game)
2. Tony Romo, DAL (44.00 passing attempts per game)
3. Tom Brady, NEP (41.50 passing attempts per game)
4. Drew Brees, NOS (41.33 passing attempts per game)
5. Andrew Luck, IND (41.50 passing attempts per game)
6. Matt Ryan, ATL (39.33 passing attempts per game)
7. Andy Dalton, CIN (39.00 passing attempts per game)
8. Philip Rivers, SDC (39.00 passing attempts per game)
9. Matt Hasselbeck, TEN (37.25 passing attempts per game)
10. Michael Vick, PHI (37.00 passing attempts per game)


These are the week 8 facts, By The Numbers.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: MONDAY'S FANTASY HEADLINES

Monday Edition
October 29th, 2012  

David's Daily Digest

Monday’s Fantasy Headlines

Manning the Great
There weren’t too many folks that believed we’d be seeing the old Manning return this season and maybe we haven’t, but the 2012 version looks pretty good. Sunday night against the Saints Peyton recorded his 5th straight 300-yard passing game and his three touchdowns passing were his fourth straight game with as many. Manning may not have that old form, but the form he’s working with should do just fine for fantasy owners going forward.

A Young Man’s Game
The Detroit Lions 2nd year receiver Titus Young has his coming out party on Sunday and it could not come at a better time. Young set his season highs in receptions (9), receiving yards (100), and touchdowns (2) on Sunday in the Lions win over the Seahawks. Young has quietly become a bigger part of the offense and with Nate Burleson (injury) sidelined for the remainder of the season and Megatron drawing mega coverage, Young will continue to benefit greatly and get better.

It’s Gronk Time Again
The Patriots big tight end Rob Gronkowski looked more like the Gronk from 2011 on Sunday recording his second consecutive two-score game; last season he had a total of seven multiple score games. With the bye week ahead Gronk and company will have time to heal and can be expected to continue their great play in the second half of the season.

The Rookie Finds His Legs
The Browns rookie running back Trent Richardson may not be completely healthy, but on Sunday against the Chargers he found his running legs. Richardson broke loose for 122 yards and a score on 24 carries. If this kid can get healthier, he’s in line to have more Sunday’s like this.

The Old Man Has Some Juice Left
The Broncos offense may be going a bit retro with Willis McGahee leading the backfield, but the former Miami Hurricane is showing he’s got plenty left in his tank. Sunday night against the Saints McGahee rambled his way to 122 yards on the ground and adding his fourth rushing touchdown of the season. With Peyton under center playing as well as he is, McGahee should continue to find holes and produce numbers for fantasy owners.

Dougie Fresh Gettin Down
The Buccaneers have found a ground game this season in rookie running back Doug Martin who recorded his first 100-yard rushing game last Thursday night. Martin also showed his versatility with a 79-yard receiving effort in the Bucs upset over the Vikings. Martin is quickly developing into a complete back in both the run and pass game, I’d expect to the see the Bucs getting him involved early and often.

A Lions Roar Heard on Sunday
The Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has had a rough and inconsistent start to his 2012 season, but Sunday may have just been the jump started needed to get things rolling. Against a stout Seahawks defense Stafford was better than good torching the secondary for 352 yards, completing 34 of 49 passes. Stafford added three passing scores to go with a rushing score. If Stafford can continue to find this form going forward, he should pay-off big for fantasy owners that used a high draft selection to get him.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Monday Edition

August 20th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

A New Season and New Faces to Watch

With every new NFL season a new fantasy season begins and with that the new crop faces and names of the payers to watch. This year will be no different. There are going to be some real gems in your fantasy draft that are going to out-perform their draft position (if they are drafted), but the key is identifying these guys early before they become public knowledge and up for grabs in your fantasy leagues.

Rising Stars

Last season a couple of late bloomers that figure to be key performers in the upcoming fantasy season include; Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown and Raiders wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey. Now of course this is only a short list and there are likely plenty more to talk about, but let’s just start with these.

In only his second season the Steelers newly resigned (just this off-season to a hefty extension) wideout made a very good name for himself in 2011 playing opposite the speedy Mike Wallace. While Wallace often demanded double coverage, Brown exploited the single coverage he faced and produced strong numbers in his sophomore campaign; 69 receptions and 1,100 yards receiving. Entering his third season he looks ready to breakout.

Heyward-Bey, a fourth year player for the Raiders started out slow last season, but finally broke out in week 4 with against the Patriots. Just when it appeared he was finally starting to hit his stride, down went quarterback Jason Campbell; enter Carson Palmer. It took a while for Palmer and Heyward-Bey to gel, but once the two were in sync the Raiders receiver starting to shine. In his last four starts Heyward-Bey caught 26 passes for 433 yards and two touchdowns. Palmer is back under center and Heyward-Bey looks ready to rise to the next level.

Another name to consider is the Dolphins running back Reggie Bush, who is no old dog, but seems to still have a few tricks. Not a stranger to fantasy, Bush has been relatively irrelevant the past several seasons falling off many drafts boards come draft day. It’s understandable; he missed 20 games over his last four seasons in New Orleans before joining the Phins in 2011, but after last season’s performance down the stretch he could be experiencing a rebirth in South Beach.

With the Phins making the move to roll with their rookie quarterback, Bush is going to be rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s best friend out of the backfield; and we already know what Reggie can do with the ball in space. A lot of folks are skeptical about Bush’s durability, but if used wisely he can be a monster on offense on the ground and in the air. Last season Bush finished as the leagues’ 13^th leading rusher, coming on strong down the stretch. His last four starts he averaged around 23 touches per game and 150 yards of offense. He definitely looks primed to rise in 2012.

Sleepers Watch

Worthy Hands?

These guys are likely off most radars and understandably so, but I believe they are more than interesting enough to keep a watch for; in Miami wide receiver Roberto Wallace, in St. Louis wide receiver Steve Smith, in Tampa Bay Mike Williams, and in Detroit wide receiver Titus Young.

Wallace is a relative unknown (unless you have been watching “Hard Knocks”), but he has the size and athletic build to be a star. He just needs a young strong arm to believe in him. With the wide receiver position wide open in Miami, he not only has a chance to make the team, but earn significant time. All he needs is opportunity to be a big producer.

A receiver that knows something about being a big producer may have just found himself the best home yet in St. Louis. Steve Smith was highly productive in New York before injuries derailed his ascension. Now with the Rams, this veteran has a chance to build a strong rapport with a very young and confident arm in Sam Bradford. Already he is making an impression with 11 catches in just two preseason games. This recipe certainly has the smell and flavor of becoming something quite tasty for the fantasy world.

Williams and Young are not quite unknown, having had decent 2011 seasons, but playing in the shadows of Calvin Johnson (in Detroit) and Vincent Jackson (former Charger) will certainly improve their chances of continuing with that momentum. Young will enter his second season and still play second fiddle, but with the young Matt Stafford firing the pigskin, he should still get plenty of looks to be more than relevant in 2011. Williams caught 65 balls for the second straight season, but only found the end-zone 3 times (down from 11 in 2010). Jackson’s presence should ensure he produces even better numbers in 2012, including many more touchdowns.

These are just my takes on a few of the up and coming fantasy studs for 2012.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL NOTES

October 9th, 2011, Sunday

Fantasy Football

Player Watch

Armed with Arms

With the Pittsburgh Steelers set to host the Tennessee Titans today, I am looking for wide receiver Antonio Brown to finally breakout. Through the first four weeks Brown has gradually seen his role in the passing game increase. With 15 receptions and 223 receiving yards, Brown is quickly becoming a real threat. Brown leads the team in targets this season, has very good speed, and with the defense preoccupied with slowing down Mike Wallace, he could have some favorable matchups today. I am expecting Brown to post some solid numbers today and reach the end-zone once.

The Colts have had little to get excited about thus far this season, but on Monday night they gave the Buccaneers a real scare. With quarterback Curtis Painter breathing some life into the pass game, wide receiver Pierre Garcon has become a bigger part of the offense. Garcon has seen 16 targets the past two weeks, caught eight passes, and scored twice. Garcon should continue to see steady work today against the Chiefs and is a good candidate to find paydirt.

Monday night figures to be a big night in Detroit for Lions fans, but it could also be a big night for rookie wide receiver Titus Young. After their dramatic comeback against the Cowboys, there’s no doubt the Bears (their next opponent) will be game-planning to slow down Megatron. Young has yet to breakout this season, but he has been steady; 12 receptions this season. Against the league’s 26 ranked pass defense, Young could get some extra looks and they could payout big. I look for Young to post season highs in targets, catches, yards, and finally reach the end-zone for the first time this season.

By David Ortega