FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 17th, 2016

Saturday

Week 2: Free Agent Frenzy

If you are in a bind heading into Sunday and looking for some help, here are a handful of potential free agents that could offer some relief.

Last Monday night the Steelers passing game entered the post Heath Miller ERA, and 2nd year tight end Jesse James moved into the starting role. His first start was less than memorable racking up a mere 31 yards receiving, but the good news for fantasy owners were his 7 targets. James also managed 5 catches in week one, which is a good sign for those that play in PPR leagues. This week the Steelers will match up against the Bengals, a team that allowed 21 receptions for 175 yards receiving to their tight ends in two games last season. James could be a nice sneaky Free Agent pick & play this week.

The Vikings passing game is not your typical place to go looking for fantasy production, but with a change coming under center this week there may be some hope. Wide receiver Charles Johnson was very quiet in week one catching just one pass for 17 yards, but this week he'll have a better match up against a Packer secondary that allowed 13 catches for 178 yards receiving to opposing wide receivers last Sunday. For owners looking for Free Agent relief in week 2 Johnson could be floundering around on the available market. His one catch could deter some, but his six targets indicate he's a big part of the pass game and and with a new signal caller he's got a great chance to improve this week.

It wasn't a big night for Niners wide receiver Jeremy Kerley tallying 61 yards receiving, but fantasy owners should have paid attention to his 11 targets. The starting slot man for the Niners, Kerley was targeted early and often and could see more of the same with head coach Chip Kelly's fast paced offense. Kerley is likely not the most popular name on fantasy rosters, but his 11 targets are too big to ignore. If he's still out there, he's worth grabbing as a number 3 or 4 receiver and possible flex option going forward.

Raven's wide receiver Mike Wallace was all but a forgotten man last season in Minnesota, but a new team with a big-armed quarterback (Joe Flacco) and the barn burner has suddenly found new life. In week one Wallace and Flacco connected on a 66 yard touchdown bomb and although that was the highlight of his day, his six targets make him a promising play going forward. He's also a likely free agent candidate that has big upside potential and should be scooped up now. 

That's my take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: BY THE NUMBERS

Tuesday Edition
October 30th, 2012  

By the Numbers

When you know all the facts, there’s no escaping the truth and numbers seldom lie. Taking a look at how players are performing in fantasy scoring is typically in direct proportion to their opportunity. The more chances afforded a player the more likely he will produce. If you are a gambler, you like to play with the odds that are in your favor.

Here’s the week 8 breakdown of the numbers….

Targets (the past four weeks)

Over the past month, some names of notable mention include Mike Williams (TB), Titus Young (DET), and Cecil Shorts (JAX). These are not your regular household names, but increased involvement has made them more than relevant over the past several weeks. 

A couple of names that could be joining the conversation soon could include Jeremy Kerley and Andre Roberts. Both are top 30 WR’s over the past four weeks, but could see a production boost if their target numbers continue. At the moment, neither is nothing more than a possible flex option fill, but keep watching.

Weekly Target average:

1. Brandon Marshall, WR (13.66 targets per game)
2. Reggie Wayne, WR (13.00 targets per game)
3. Marques Colston, WR (12.66 targets per game)
4. Steve Smith (CAR), WR (12.66 targets per game)
5. Wes Welker, WR (11.50 targets per game)
6. Larry Fitzgerald, WR (11.25 targets per game)
7. Percy Harvin, WR (10.25 targets per game)
8. Victor Cruz, WR (10.00 targets per game)
9. Jeremy Kerley, WR (9.25 targets per game)
 T-10. Andre Roberts, WR (9.00 targets per game)
Mike Wallace, WR (9.00 targets per game)

Some additional PPR numbers…

Top targeted RB’s past four weeks

1. Darren Sproles, NO (6.66 targets per game)
2. Fred Jackson, BUF (6.00 targets per game)
3. Darren McFadden, OAK (5.66 targets per game)
3. Ryan Matthews, SDC (5.66 targets per game)
3. Rashad Jennings, JAX (5.66 targets per game)
3. Ronnie Brown, SDC (5.66 targets per game)

Top targeted TE’s past four weeks

1. Jason Witten, DAL (12.33 targets per game)
2. Rob Gronkowski, NEP (8.75 targets per game)
3. Tony Gonzales, ATL (8.66 targets per game)
4. Brandon Pettigrew, DET (7.33 targets per game)
5. Antonio Gates, SDC (7.00 targets per game)
5. Heath Miller, PIT (7.00 targets per game)

Touches (the past four weeks)

An important factor in a running back’s success is developing a rhythm and building momentum during the game; for some the more touches the better they get. These are the most active in the backfield over the past month.

While his numbers have not been strong the past couple of weeks Alex Green gets plenty of work, enough to keep him in the top 25 (over the past month). Like Green in Green Bay, Shonn Greene in New York has been seeing plenty of action himself. His workload has help him produce at a top 5 level for the past weeks and has shot him up the board inside the top 15 for the season. With Richardson returning in week 8 and running well, with this average fantasy owners can expect to see his production also rise.

Average Carries with Catches:

1. Darren McFadden, RB (28.66 touches per game)
2. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB (25.00 touches per game)
3. Arian Foster, RB (22.66 touches per game)
4. Adrian Peterson, RB (21.25 touches per game)
5. Alex Green, RB (20.75 touches per game)
6. Chris Johnson, RB (20.25 touches per game)
7. Stevan Ridley, RB (19.25 touches per game)
8. Shonn Greene, RB (20.00 touches per game)
9. Alfred Morris, RB (18.25 touches per game)
10. Trent Richardson, RB (18.25 touches per game)

Passing Attempts (the past four weeks)

What we have learned through 8 weeks in the season, regardless of what the Cowboys and quarterback Tony Romo would like to do, the boys in big D tend to throw the ball. Romo’s numbers are bordering mediocre with only 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions over the past month, but it’s hard to deny his upside with all the weapons he has and when he’s putting it up 40 plus times a game. 

If you looking for that back-up for insurance or if you are currently struggling with a Philip Rivers or Cam Newton, going by the numbers with his 40 plus attempts per game rookie quarterback Andrew Luck is worth a look performing at a top five fantasy level the past four weeks.

 Average passing attempts:

1. Matthew Stafford, DET (46.66 passing attempts per game)
2. Tony Romo, DAL (44.00 passing attempts per game)
3. Tom Brady, NEP (41.50 passing attempts per game)
4. Drew Brees, NOS (41.33 passing attempts per game)
5. Andrew Luck, IND (41.50 passing attempts per game)
6. Matt Ryan, ATL (39.33 passing attempts per game)
7. Andy Dalton, CIN (39.00 passing attempts per game)
8. Philip Rivers, SDC (39.00 passing attempts per game)
9. Matt Hasselbeck, TEN (37.25 passing attempts per game)
10. Michael Vick, PHI (37.00 passing attempts per game)


These are the week 8 facts, By The Numbers.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WATERCOOLER CHAT

Wednesday Edition

October 24th, 2012 

Watercooler Chat

“Just Talking Fantasy”

This Weeks Waiver Wire Wonders

With the injury to Maurice Jones-Drew, running back Rashad Jennings is one of the hot pickups this week off the waiver wire. Jennings will take over the starting duties while MJD is sidelined and could see quite the workload, but if you are not an MJD owner don’t expect him to be a permanent fix to fill any big holes in your lineup. Jennings is averaging just 2.6 yards per carry this season and the Jaguars don’t exactly have the easiest schedule with the Packers (17th against the run) and Lions (16th against the run) up next on the schedule.

The Steelers backfield is a jumbled mess with running back Rashard Mendenhall and Issac Redman still sidelined after missing practice on Wednesday. After his strong 122-yard showing in week 7 running back, Jonathan Dwyer looks like the hot commodity off the wire this week, if both Mendenhall and Redman miss action in week 8, but at the moment that still remains an sticky situation.

The Rams seem to have found themselves a new deep threat and playmaker in wide receiver Chris Givens. If the bye weeks are playing havoc with your lineup and you’re looking for help, the speedy receiver could offer some temporary relief this week when the Rams play host to the Patriots (ranked 29^th against the pass) in London. Givens has posted better than 50 yards receiving in four straight games and has gradually become more and more a part of the team’s passing attack. He’s nothing more than a flex option at best, but through the bye weeks he could be a nice fill and big surprise.

The Jets offense has been in a quagmire all season, but one bright spot for quarterback Mark Sanchez has been the emergence of wide receiver Jeremy Kerley. The second year wideout has hardly lit the world on fire, but he’s slowly making his way up the fantasy ranks; at least some of us know who he is. Better than that, Kerley has turned in some nice efforts on Sunday and Sanchez appears to be looking his way more often; 26 targets over the past three weeks. Kerley won’t offer any big prizes just yet, but he could work his way in as a flex option for some owners.

Trending This Week

The Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown has not scored a touchdown in his past three starts, but he’s still a favorite in the passing game with 28 targets over the same span. The Steelers host the Redskins (ranked 32nd against the pass) on Sunday and Brown could finally breakout of his scoring slump.

The Cardinals passing game has not had much to speak about this season other than Larry Fitzgerald, but with opposing teams really focusing on taking Fitz out third year receiving Andre Roberts is starting to make noise. This past Sunday Roberts turned in his second 100-yard receiving game this season. His numbers have not been consistent this season, but in his past three games he has been targeted 25 times. With the quarterbacks continuing to look his direction, better numbers seem likely in the future.

With Mohamed Massaquoi sidelined, rookie wide receiver Josh Gordon is suddenly emerging as the Browns leading scoring threat in the pass game. Gordon has scored at least one touchdown in his last three games and has been targeted 22 times. Gordon’s quickly showing his ability to produce and if rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden continues to look in his direction, he looks like a promising candidate to sustain his level of fantasy production.

By David Ortega