FSH NOTEBOOK: BY THE NUMBERS

Tuesday Edition
October 30th, 2012  

By the Numbers

When you know all the facts, there’s no escaping the truth and numbers seldom lie. Taking a look at how players are performing in fantasy scoring is typically in direct proportion to their opportunity. The more chances afforded a player the more likely he will produce. If you are a gambler, you like to play with the odds that are in your favor.

Here’s the week 8 breakdown of the numbers….

Targets (the past four weeks)

Over the past month, some names of notable mention include Mike Williams (TB), Titus Young (DET), and Cecil Shorts (JAX). These are not your regular household names, but increased involvement has made them more than relevant over the past several weeks. 

A couple of names that could be joining the conversation soon could include Jeremy Kerley and Andre Roberts. Both are top 30 WR’s over the past four weeks, but could see a production boost if their target numbers continue. At the moment, neither is nothing more than a possible flex option fill, but keep watching.

Weekly Target average:

1. Brandon Marshall, WR (13.66 targets per game)
2. Reggie Wayne, WR (13.00 targets per game)
3. Marques Colston, WR (12.66 targets per game)
4. Steve Smith (CAR), WR (12.66 targets per game)
5. Wes Welker, WR (11.50 targets per game)
6. Larry Fitzgerald, WR (11.25 targets per game)
7. Percy Harvin, WR (10.25 targets per game)
8. Victor Cruz, WR (10.00 targets per game)
9. Jeremy Kerley, WR (9.25 targets per game)
 T-10. Andre Roberts, WR (9.00 targets per game)
Mike Wallace, WR (9.00 targets per game)

Some additional PPR numbers…

Top targeted RB’s past four weeks

1. Darren Sproles, NO (6.66 targets per game)
2. Fred Jackson, BUF (6.00 targets per game)
3. Darren McFadden, OAK (5.66 targets per game)
3. Ryan Matthews, SDC (5.66 targets per game)
3. Rashad Jennings, JAX (5.66 targets per game)
3. Ronnie Brown, SDC (5.66 targets per game)

Top targeted TE’s past four weeks

1. Jason Witten, DAL (12.33 targets per game)
2. Rob Gronkowski, NEP (8.75 targets per game)
3. Tony Gonzales, ATL (8.66 targets per game)
4. Brandon Pettigrew, DET (7.33 targets per game)
5. Antonio Gates, SDC (7.00 targets per game)
5. Heath Miller, PIT (7.00 targets per game)

Touches (the past four weeks)

An important factor in a running back’s success is developing a rhythm and building momentum during the game; for some the more touches the better they get. These are the most active in the backfield over the past month.

While his numbers have not been strong the past couple of weeks Alex Green gets plenty of work, enough to keep him in the top 25 (over the past month). Like Green in Green Bay, Shonn Greene in New York has been seeing plenty of action himself. His workload has help him produce at a top 5 level for the past weeks and has shot him up the board inside the top 15 for the season. With Richardson returning in week 8 and running well, with this average fantasy owners can expect to see his production also rise.

Average Carries with Catches:

1. Darren McFadden, RB (28.66 touches per game)
2. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB (25.00 touches per game)
3. Arian Foster, RB (22.66 touches per game)
4. Adrian Peterson, RB (21.25 touches per game)
5. Alex Green, RB (20.75 touches per game)
6. Chris Johnson, RB (20.25 touches per game)
7. Stevan Ridley, RB (19.25 touches per game)
8. Shonn Greene, RB (20.00 touches per game)
9. Alfred Morris, RB (18.25 touches per game)
10. Trent Richardson, RB (18.25 touches per game)

Passing Attempts (the past four weeks)

What we have learned through 8 weeks in the season, regardless of what the Cowboys and quarterback Tony Romo would like to do, the boys in big D tend to throw the ball. Romo’s numbers are bordering mediocre with only 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions over the past month, but it’s hard to deny his upside with all the weapons he has and when he’s putting it up 40 plus times a game. 

If you looking for that back-up for insurance or if you are currently struggling with a Philip Rivers or Cam Newton, going by the numbers with his 40 plus attempts per game rookie quarterback Andrew Luck is worth a look performing at a top five fantasy level the past four weeks.

 Average passing attempts:

1. Matthew Stafford, DET (46.66 passing attempts per game)
2. Tony Romo, DAL (44.00 passing attempts per game)
3. Tom Brady, NEP (41.50 passing attempts per game)
4. Drew Brees, NOS (41.33 passing attempts per game)
5. Andrew Luck, IND (41.50 passing attempts per game)
6. Matt Ryan, ATL (39.33 passing attempts per game)
7. Andy Dalton, CIN (39.00 passing attempts per game)
8. Philip Rivers, SDC (39.00 passing attempts per game)
9. Matt Hasselbeck, TEN (37.25 passing attempts per game)
10. Michael Vick, PHI (37.00 passing attempts per game)


These are the week 8 facts, By The Numbers.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Monday Edition
October 29th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest













MNF Quick Notes

With two of the leagues best defenses taking the field, tonight’s matchup will feature more defense than anything else, so expect fantasy points to be tough to come by.

These are my takes for tonight’s Monday Night Matchup.

Running back Frank Gore is going to have a tough go finding yards tonight against the Cardinals stout defense, but he should get plenty of touches tonight to be productive. Gore is averaging an impressive 5.8 yards per carry and has scored four times this season to go along with his 603 yards rushing. The 49ers ball carrier has three 100-yard rushing games this season and facing the Cardinals 21st ranked defense against the run, he could be in line for possibly another. Even if Gore doesn’t top the century mark, he’ll compile enough numbers with some grabs and a score to get the job done.

The Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is nearly impossible to stop, but tonight he lines up against the leagues number one pass defense. Consistency and pass protection will be key if Fitzgerald is going to be a factor tonight. It’s a tough start for Larry Fitz and based on how inconsistent the offense has played of late, it could be feast or famine tonight. The good news, in his last two matchups with the Niners Fitzgerald has enjoyed some success; in particular last season at home with Skelton under center he totaled 7 catches for 149 yards and a score. I’d expect Skelton to look Fitzgerald’s way early and often, the faster he gets involved the more things can open up for the offense.

One of the reasons and components that will help the Cardinals offense succeed tonight is the emergence of wide receiver Andre Roberts. Fitzgerald will get his looks and produce his numbers on the other side, but Roberts is going to help that cause by playing well on his side. Roberts is coming off a fine week 7 effort (7 rec, 103 yards, TD) and should get favorable coverage tonight to be a factor. A couple of grabs and some nice yards won’t propel him into any starting spots on fantasy rosters, but he could make a nice flex play going forward.

Other than their ground attack, the Niners offense doesn’t leave much to be desired. The Cardinals boast a pretty good secondary themselves ranked 4th this season. Alex Smith has regressed the past several weeks with just one touchdown and four picks in his last two starts. The Cardinals are going to bring pressure tonight and try to force Smith to make mistakes. Smith is capable of handling pressure and playing well, but the Niners are a running offense, so numbers by the air are few. Other than tight end Vernon Davis (no catches last week) and wide receiver Michael Crabtree (57 yards receiving in his last two games) who are notable “play at your own risk”, the Niners offense doesn’t boast any fantasy worthy plays at the receiver position at this time.

Since tonight will feature some great defensive play and outstanding IDP’s, it only makes sense to give a shout out to a couple of studs linebackers we will be seeing a lot of tonight. For the Cardinals Daryl Washington is have a great season leading the team with 62 combined tackles  and six sacks this season. On the 49ers sideline, NaVorro Bowman is having himself a great season as well, leading the defense with 67 combined tackles. Both must-play studs will be flying all over the field and at the center of all the action tonight. You will undoubtedly hear their names called a lot.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WATERCOOLER CHAT

Wednesday Edition

October 24th, 2012 

Watercooler Chat

“Just Talking Fantasy”

This Weeks Waiver Wire Wonders

With the injury to Maurice Jones-Drew, running back Rashad Jennings is one of the hot pickups this week off the waiver wire. Jennings will take over the starting duties while MJD is sidelined and could see quite the workload, but if you are not an MJD owner don’t expect him to be a permanent fix to fill any big holes in your lineup. Jennings is averaging just 2.6 yards per carry this season and the Jaguars don’t exactly have the easiest schedule with the Packers (17th against the run) and Lions (16th against the run) up next on the schedule.

The Steelers backfield is a jumbled mess with running back Rashard Mendenhall and Issac Redman still sidelined after missing practice on Wednesday. After his strong 122-yard showing in week 7 running back, Jonathan Dwyer looks like the hot commodity off the wire this week, if both Mendenhall and Redman miss action in week 8, but at the moment that still remains an sticky situation.

The Rams seem to have found themselves a new deep threat and playmaker in wide receiver Chris Givens. If the bye weeks are playing havoc with your lineup and you’re looking for help, the speedy receiver could offer some temporary relief this week when the Rams play host to the Patriots (ranked 29^th against the pass) in London. Givens has posted better than 50 yards receiving in four straight games and has gradually become more and more a part of the team’s passing attack. He’s nothing more than a flex option at best, but through the bye weeks he could be a nice fill and big surprise.

The Jets offense has been in a quagmire all season, but one bright spot for quarterback Mark Sanchez has been the emergence of wide receiver Jeremy Kerley. The second year wideout has hardly lit the world on fire, but he’s slowly making his way up the fantasy ranks; at least some of us know who he is. Better than that, Kerley has turned in some nice efforts on Sunday and Sanchez appears to be looking his way more often; 26 targets over the past three weeks. Kerley won’t offer any big prizes just yet, but he could work his way in as a flex option for some owners.

Trending This Week

The Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown has not scored a touchdown in his past three starts, but he’s still a favorite in the passing game with 28 targets over the same span. The Steelers host the Redskins (ranked 32nd against the pass) on Sunday and Brown could finally breakout of his scoring slump.

The Cardinals passing game has not had much to speak about this season other than Larry Fitzgerald, but with opposing teams really focusing on taking Fitz out third year receiving Andre Roberts is starting to make noise. This past Sunday Roberts turned in his second 100-yard receiving game this season. His numbers have not been consistent this season, but in his past three games he has been targeted 25 times. With the quarterbacks continuing to look his direction, better numbers seem likely in the future.

With Mohamed Massaquoi sidelined, rookie wide receiver Josh Gordon is suddenly emerging as the Browns leading scoring threat in the pass game. Gordon has scored at least one touchdown in his last three games and has been targeted 22 times. Gordon’s quickly showing his ability to produce and if rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden continues to look in his direction, he looks like a promising candidate to sustain his level of fantasy production.

By David Ortega