FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 26th 2017

Tuesday Night Edition

Weekly Waiver Wire

(Week 4)

Well the good thing for fantasy owners, through the first three weeks of action the free agent pool has yet to dry up, but this week there may be a couple of names that have already surfaced.

QB-Case Keenum (QB2/ QB streamer) Keenum is not a name you’ll hear very often around the watercooler when it comes to the Waiver wire. But after two weeks of play and a strong week 3 performance, he has garnered some consideration, especially since he’ll remain at the reins heading into week 4 and he’s got great weapons around him.

RB-Chris Thompson (streaming RB2/weekly flex) if he’s still available snatch him now. The Redskins scat back is clearly the team’s best out of the backfield and although he’s not going to be a featured ball carrier in the offense, he’s going to see enough snaps and touches to produce consistently (especially in PPR formats).

RB-Jamaal Charles (flex option) we saw on Sunday when given opportunity Charles can still make things happen. He was limited to just 9 carries, but was clearly the better Broncos back with 56 yards rushing and a score. Look for his touches to continue to increase and with it his value grow.

RB-Chris Carson (low flex / rostered) on Sunday Carson was clearly the featured runner in the Seahawks backfield. Now Sunday wasn’t a typical run game plan as the Seahawks threw the ball 49 times, but Carson drew the start. His play was underwhelming, but he looks to be the preferred option at this time, so better days may lie ahead. He may be worth snagging and stashing for now if you have the roster spot available.

Andre Ellington (flex option) the cards receiving back got a lot of run Monday night against the Cowboys, totaling 81 yards on 10 touches. Starting running back Chris Johnson showed a lot of rust Monday. A slow going for CJ2K could pave the way for more work in the near future for Ellington. Right now he may be the Cardinal runner to own.

WR-Geronimo Allison (current low-flex option) now Allison is one to watch. I think his 8 targets on Sunday are telling. Rodgers went to him enough to make me believe there is trust. With Cobb ailing and Bennett nothing more than a short option safety blanket, Allison could work his way into the James Jones role; the fourth receiver on a team where the quarterback has the ability to feature anyone. His value may be limited for now, but let’s see how he does in the coming weeks.

WR-Travis Benjamin (Borderline WR3/WR4/flex) The Chargers deep threat receiver is tough to trust averaging just 5 targets per contest, but he’s got real big play potential averaging better than 20 yards per reception in week 3. He’s a risky play, but I like him as a flex in PPR or standard leagues.

TE-Ryan Griffin (TE2) The Texans have gone through more tight ends in the first two weeks, than most teams go through in a full season. Well last week they may have found one that sticks, Ryan Griffin. With a rookie quarterback, the tight end position is going to be important and quite possibly heavily utilized. Griffin was only targeted 6 times on Sunday, but he grabbed five balls for 61 yards and a score. As his chemistry with his quarterback improves, so might the numbers.

Keep on your radar

QB-Brian Hoyer & QB-Jared Goff; now I’m not going to rattle any cages or bang any drums here, but I will just say both of these quarterbacks should be followed. I believe at some point this season, both could be worthy of roster spots if they aren’t already.

WR-Robert Woods; I wouldn’t call the Rams offense explosive, but it is loaded with talent and skill. And head coach Sean McVay may just be the guy to get the most out of it. Woods has been relatively quietly through 3 weeks, but he did make a little noise on Thursday night. He’s not ready for primetime, but he’s one to watch in the coming weeks.

WR-Taylor Gabriel; It’s definitely too early to jump on his band wagon, but I think Gabriel should be on your radar as a potential streaming flier. His workload is not consistent (4-3-6 his targets pattern this season), but he’s got boom or bust potential; watch the passing volume and play the matchups.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 21st 2017

Thursday Evening Edition

Thursday’s Twitter Takes

If you are playing DFS this week, both quarterbacks Jared Goff (Rams) and Brian Hoyer (Niners) are to be avoided. While neither faces a dominant defense tonight, we’ve not see enough consistency from either to pull the trigger.

“Goff and Hoyer are off the fantasy radar tonight” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Rams running back Todd Gurley has looked like a pretty good fantasy pick through two weeks. If you’ve invested in his fantasy stock this season, feel confident with his potential gains tonight against the Niners run defense that’s allowed the 9th most rushing yards this season.

“Roll with the Gurley-man on Thursday night. He’ll get the work in to put up numbers.” by @FantsySprtsHome

Niners Carlos Hyde is a Thursday favorite and strong play tonight. The Rams run defense was decimated a week ago and ranks last against running backs, allowing a staggering 295 yards rushing in two games. Hyde ranks as the No.12 fantasy running back in PPR; look out Top-10 and Dr. Jekyll, here comes Hyde.

“Dr. Jekyll better warn the Rams run defense (ranked 30th), here comes Hyde! by @FantsySprtsHome

The only pass catchers I am endorsing tonight, are (Niners) Pierre Garcon and (Rams) Cooper Kupp. Both are highly risky plays and regardless of salary value, I would avoid in DFS. Both could be considered as long shot flex options in larger leagues and only because both will see a fair share of targets in their respective passing game.

“Not much value tonight, but if you’re looking for fliers, Watkins, Kupp & Garcon are the only with any value” by @FantsySprtsHome

The Rams wide receiver Sammy Watkins is an exceptional big play talent that the team will hope to exploit soon. Unfortunately right now Watkins is like a ticking bomb counting down; eventually the clock is going to hit zero and he’ll explode. The only problem for fantasy owners, we just don’t know when. Playing him right now is an unnecessary risk, so exercise patience.

“Watkins ready to explode? Who knows. Owners must be patient and sit him for now” by @FantsySprtsHome

All in all I expect tonight’s matchup to be worthy of the long historical rivalry between these two franchises and while it certainly doesn’t shape up to be, I would not be surprised with a higher scoring contest than what is being advertised.

All plays are risky, especially on those on the short week (Thursday night), but remember both teams are now under offensive minded regimes.

Go Shanahan and McVay.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 10th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Gametime

This is one of the most exciting times of the year, right up there with March Madness and Christmas; it’s the first Sunday of the NFL, week 1 and a full slate of games. This is what fantasy owners have been waiting for since camps opened back in July and the time has arrived.

Now that kick-off is just about 75 minutes away how about a couple of “Hot Takes” for week 1;

I’ve not heard anything definitive, but as long as quarterback Cam Newton starts, I am big on wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin. A huge red-zone target in the passing offense, look for two scoreS today from Benjamin.

I may not be starting Niners quarterback Brian Hoyer today, but I think he’ll draw some fantasy owner attention today with a solid performance. He’s not goinig to be a sexy play any week, but he’s going to be a quarterback you can stream throughout the season.

One reason for Hoyer’s success will be his connection with wide receiver Pierre Garcon. He’s the number receiver in a system he’s familiar with he could see double digit targets today and post WR1 numbers against the Panthers.

The Bills running back LeSean McCoy is going to see plenty of carries today and could top the 150 total yards mark. The Jets defense has been picked apart this offseason and they could really struggle this season against opposing running backs, especially in the pass game.

And finally for Week 1, look for the old man (sorry Carson) in Arizona, quarterback Carson Palmer to find a little fountain of youth in Detroit today. He and the legend wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald could pull out some old tricks and post some big numbers today; 300 yards passing, 100 yards receiving, and at least one scoring connection.

That’s My Hot Takes for Today.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 29th 2017

Tuesday Night Late Edition

Fantasy Watch List

Well the third week (or technically the 4th week if you count the Hall of fame game) of the preseason, also known as the dress-rehearsal has completed and what have we learned? Plenty!

There was a lot to see and plenty of notes to take, so let’s get started.

The Niners have a new head coach this season, former Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and many believe his presence could have a lot of influence on his new quarterback Brian Hoyer (aka Billy Ho). Hoyer is a carry-over from Cleveland when Shanahan was the OC there back in 2014; Hoyer started 13 games. Last season before going down in week 7, Hoyer had passed for over 300 yards in 4 straight games. Hoyer also scored double digits in four straight starts (week 3 thru 6) and had more than 18 fantasy points in three straight weeks (weeks 3 thru 5). Hoyer is not a big name, nor does he have a big arm, but he’s in a familiar system and a capable arm that you should be able to stream throughout the season.

One of the reasons I like Billy Ho in Frisco, he’ll be throwing to wide receiver Pierre Garcon who is also familiar with Shanahan’s system. Garcon is expected to be the Niners number one receiver this year and back in 2013 under OC Shanahan when the two were together in Washington he posted career numbers in receptions (113) and yards receiving (1,346 yards); he also had a league high 182 targets. Garcon is a little older now, but could be much wiser and a very nice value with a current ADP of 8.06 (the 37th WR going off the board). Garcon could have high level WR2 value and he’s being drafted as a borderline WR3/WR4.

The Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen is going even later around the 11th round; he’s going off the board as the 48th fantasy receiver. Thielen has worked himself into a starting role in Minnesota and last season finished as the No. 29 fantasy receiver, so he is going way too late. Last season Thielen has a huge week 16 performance scoring over 44 fantasy points, a big reason why he finished in the top 30. But even without the huge game in week 16, in weeks 5 thru 14 last season Thielen was the league’s No. 26 fantasy receiver. He’s great value going as late as he is.

Some of the big news coming out of this past weekend was injuries and the fantasy implications. The Patriots lost wide receiver Julian Edelman on Saturday (we’re hoping Edelman a speedy recovery) and his absence will surely open up opportunities for others in the passing game this season. Last season Edelman finished with 159 targets, so it is natural to expect many of those to go somewhere this season. Two beneficiaries we’d expect to see are wide receivers Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola. Sure there will be  a carry over to the running backs (James White could absorb the majority of those), but the Patriots aerial attack has an aggressive look this season with so many weapons, players like Hogan and Amendola will surely now get a lot more usage than they would have. Their value won’t likely spike enough for consideration in re-draft leagues (their best fit is undoubtedly Best Ball Drafts), but you should be able to stream them throughout the season; just look for the favorable matchups.

These are just a few of the fantasy players I’ll be watching this season.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 11th 2017

Friday Morning Edition

My Fantasy Rankings

With Fantasy drafts right around the corner it’s time to start ranking our players and taking a look at where we’ll be looking for value.

Let’s start with the quarterbacks;

My Top 20

1.Aaron Rodgers

2. Tom Brady

3. Drew Brees

4. Matt Ryan

5. Andrew Luck

6. Derek Carr

7. Cam Newton

8. Russell Wilson

9. Kirk Cousins

10. Ben Roethlisberger

I have the big boys on top, Rodgers and Brady are steady and just have too many weapons this season. Brees is Mr. Consistent with 5,000 yards until he isn’t. I’m a little high on Luck as long as he returns to the field for week 1, if that changes so will his ranking. With all of the weapons he has, I have to bump Big Ben into the top 10.

11. Philip Rivers

12. Marcus Mariota

13. Jameis Winston

14. Dak Prescott

15. Matthew Stafford

16. Eli Manning

17. Carson Wentz

18. Tyrod Taylor

19. Andy Dalton

20. Carson Palmer

Rivers and Mariota just miss my top 10, but don’t be surprised to see either break into the group; plenty of weapons of their own. I’m a little low on Stafford, but losing Megatron will hurt a little this season. I have Palmer even lower; hard to bet against father-time, but I won’t be surprised to see him bounce back this season and finish as a low-end QB1 (in deeper leagues). Taylor is interesting to me since he’s been pretty consistent, but the Bills want to run so it’s hard to imagine he’ll have the volume this season to elevate him as a QB1.

Notables beyond the top 20, that could still crack this list are Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford, Alex Smith, and even Jay Cutler. These guys you may be able to stream to fill your byes, but play the match-up and one more streamer that could offer fantasy relevance is quarterback Brian Hoyer; reunited with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 10th, 2016
Monday evening edition


Week 5: Fantasy Notables to Keep Watch

As we push a little deeper into the fantasy season, we are now past the quarter marker and about a third of the way. Every week we are seeing big performances from our top fantasy draft picks and those that are of no surprise to most owners, but here's a few notables you'd better start paying attention to;

Did anyone really expect to see Ravens wide receiver Mike Wallace to revive his career in Baltimore? It may not have reached full consciousness yet, but he's breathing life. In the first 5 weeks of the season, Wallace ranks at the 14 best fantasy receiver with 21 receptions, 273 yards receiving, and 3 touchdowns. As he and his quarterback Joe Flacco continue to get better, expect better numbers.

After five weeks did anyone expect the Steelers wide receiver Sammy Coates posting top 15 numbers? Coates has 19 grabs for 421 yards receiving to go with 2 touchdowns. we know how much quarterback Ben Roethlisberger likes to sling and with the leagues best receiver (Antonio Brown) lining up on the other side, Sammie can expect lost of single coverage the rest of the season. Grab him now!

In limited use through the first couple of weeks, Chargers tight end Hunter Henry has really come on lately and made some noise. In his last three games he's been targeted 16 times, grabbed 12 of those passes for 207 yards receiving with two scores. With a savvy veteran quarterback like Philip Rivers tossing the pigskin, Henry is going to see more opportunities moving forward. He's a dark horse just starting to shine.

Another notable to keep your eye on (or grab and stash if you don't need the play at the moment) is quarterback Brian Hoyer; yes I said Hoyer. Billy Ho had a nice run a couple of years back when he was in Cleveland and it looks like he may have rediscovered some of that old magic. Hoyer is about to crack the top 20 for fantasy passers this season and he's only played in about 3-1/2 games this season. And in his last three starts he's averaging about 339 yards passing with 6 passing touchdowns and zero interceptions. Now I am not saying this kid is the next Tom Brady, but his performance warrants keeping an eye on, especially with bye weeks in full swing.

That's my take.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 9th 2016
Sunday Morning Edition

Week 5 Sunday Notes

WAS-BAL
Looking at today's game in Baltimore, the Redskins and Ravens could be looking at severe playing conditions for the pass game. If conditions become difficutl and the passing game struggles, look for both teams to find relief on the ground. 

This is great news for Terrance West owners. The Ravens running back should have all kinds of success grinding it out against the Redskins suspect run defense. West is leagues 17th ranked runner with 232 yards on the season on 54 carries, a 4.29 yards per carry average. The Redskins allow nearly five yards a carry and have surrendered 8 rushing touchdowns this season. Upgrade West today.

On the other side, the Redskins have a capable runner in their ball carrier Matt Jones. Jones is the 13th ranked runner, but he faces a stiff test going up against the Ravens 5th ranked run defense that has only allowed 2 rushing touchdowns through the first quarter of the season. No pass, a lot of run may not spell relief for Jones fantasy owners. His value takes a slight hit.

CHI-IND
Bears quarterback Brian Hoyer will make his third start this season and after coming off a couple of solid performances with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. He's playing well and while he's on the road this week, he will see the Colts 24th ranked pass defense that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Hoyer is fighting to keep the starting job and thus far he looks like a favorite. I would expect another solid outing today against a team allowing a near 70% completion rate and the 9th most pass yards this season. He may not put up monster numbers on the road today, but he should be solid as a low QB1 in deep leagues.

That's my take.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Morning Edition

September 14th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Gametime

Last Minute Notes

Well, we actually have more than a couple of minutes; we are several hours away from Sunday kickoff. But in the whole scheme of things this is last minute considering how much time we have had available to set our line-ups.

With Sunday kickoff for week 2 of the NFL just a few short hours away, I thought I would take a look at some of today’s matchups and offer some helpful insight or just give you my opinion; whatever makes you feel most comfortable.

While I am setting my 19 head-2-head fantasy lineups this morning and one thing I will be remembering, in the Jacksonville-Washington game today the Jaguars will not have the services of safety Johnathan Cyprien (concussion). Cyprien is a great talent in the secondary and was second on the team in tackles last season with 104. Last week when Cyprien left the game against the Eagles, the Jaguars secondary had a lot of problems, blown assignments and allowed several big plans. As a result the defense surrendered 34 second half points.

The Redskins offense is in great need of some kind of spark coming off their poor performance in week one scoring just six points. The Jaguars may be just what the doctored ordered. With Cyprien ruled out this week, the Redskins wide receivers Pierre Garcon (10rec/77yds) and DeSean Jackson (8rec/62yds) may finally get on track and hit a few big plays in the pass game. I like both plays today and I would even consider tight end Niles Paul (4 targets in week 1) a sneaky sleeper play today for those with need at the position. And of course with all this love for his receivers, I have to say I like quarterback Robert Griffin III to bounce back today with a solid performance.

Looking at another matchup today with injury implications having an impact, the Saints-Browns matchup is interesting. Browns tight end Jordan Cameron has been listed as questionable all with a shoulder injury that he reaggravated in week one. With Cameron limited or possibly ruled out, I am in heavy favor of wide receiver Andrew Hawkins (8rec/87yds last week). Hawkins played with the Bengals last season and came over to the Browns during the offseason. During training camp he built up a nice rapport with quartback Brian Hoyer; in week one Hawkins was targeted 10 times. Today could be much of the same. Hawkins is not a big play, but has the look of a volume receiver; he’ll see plenty more targets and rack up more catches. That’s PPR gold.

Circling back the wagons and looking at an earlier morning matchup in the Northeast, I believe the Dolphins-Bills matchup today will be a close game. I believe both teams will be able to stay with the game-plans and run the ball extensively. The Bills did a solid job in week one limiting the Bears run game allowing 86 yards on 18 carries. The key number here is the 18 carries, because today the Bills defense is likely to see a significantly larger number facing the M&M boys. In week one against the Patriots, the Dolphins running backs Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller combined for 35 carries. Moreno is the favorite here, leading the way in week one with 24 totes, but Lamar Miller still has plenty of fantasy relevance. Miller carried the ball 11 times to the tune of 59 yards; he also snagged four passes. Both have value and both should be in your lineup today; Moreno as an RB2 and Miller as a flex.

These are just a couple of my takes for Week 2.

Good luck.

~David Ortega