FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 23rd 2017

Thursday Morning Edition

Thursday’s Twitter Takes

There's nothing like pumpkin pie, turkey, and NFL football on Thanksgiving. That's what I am thankful for and hopefully everyone is enjoying this great day with family, friends, and fellow fantasy football fans. Today's slate brings us three games and plenty of football to chew on along with lots of side dish treats. Happy Thanksgiving to all and let's get this day started!

Is it Heat check time for the Vikings quarterback Case Keenum? by @FantsySprtsHome

The Vikings quarterback Case Keenum is the No.20 fantasy QB and on the rise. In his last three starts Keenum is averaging over 290 yards passing, completing better than 68 percent of his passes with 7 touchdowns. He’s playing well, but faces a tough road challenge against a Lions defense that allows the 13th fewest yards to opposing quarterbacks.

Don’t trust the Lions running game, All-in with quarterback Matt Stafford today! by @FantsySprtsHome

The Lions running game is ranked 28th in the league averaging just under 81 yards per game and less than 3.5 yards per carry and the Vikings are the number two defense against the run. There’s little chance these teams buck this trend, so expect a lot of quarterback Matthew Stafford today to the tune of 40 plus passes.

The Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen is just stealin in 2017! by @FantsySprtsHome

Quite simply, the Vikings have another big time threat in the passing game besides wide receiver Stefon Diggs, his Wonder Twin Adam Thielen. Thielen is the No.3 fantasy WR in PPR, he’s posted the 62 receptions (tied for 5th) with 916 yards receiving (2nd in the league). Thielen has arrived in 2017 and he’s a legit WR1.

Latavius Murray looking for a big Thanksgiving dinner to follow a big Turkey day with a 100-yard rushing game! #Boldprediction by @FantsySprtsHome

The Lions defense is ranked 18th against the run and allow 4.4 yards per carry. In a road matchup where ball control and down and distance matter, Murray could see one of his busier days in the neighborhood of 20 carries. I like Murray to hit the century mark against a defense that’s allowed 313 rushing yards the past two weeks.

It’s may be The House That Jerry built, but today will be the Melvin & Keenan Show! by @FantsySprtsHome

In the last two weeks the Cowboys defense has surrendered 311 rushing yards to opposing running backs, along with 3 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. The Chargers Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen could find great success against a reeling Cowboys team today.

Captain Kirk (Cousins) is ready to steady his ship and direct the Washington Enterprise toward a post-season berth. by @FantsySprtsHome

Through 11 weeks, Cousins is now the No.5 fantasy QB; he is seriously balling right now. In his last two starts he’s thrown for 649 yards, with 6 total touchdowns, just one pick, and a completion percentage of 62. Cousins is doing all he can to carry his team and make an argument that he is a Franchise QB. He’ll make another great case tonight against the G-men.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID' DAILY DIGEST

October 26th 2017

Thursday Evening Edition

Thursday’s Twitter Takes

It's never just about the matchup, but it's always about the game. Maybe tonight's contest isn't a battle between two Titans, but it can still offer a lot of excitement, thrills, and surprises; at least we can hope for it. It's Thursday night, what else are you going to do? Just sit back, enjoy the NFL action and hope we didn't jsut waste three hours of our lives.

"Tonight's matchup could be the snoozefest of the season, both offenses rank among worst; BAL-31, Mia-32" by @FantsySprtsHome

Then again, we thought that was the case when the Rams and Niners played a few weeks back. While it may have a lot of tendencies leaning toward a lot scoring affair, there are plenty of storylines to suggest we could be in for a few surprises.

"Ravens and Flacco could be in for long night against Phins D (ranked 10th total yards)" by @ FantsySprtsHome

Dolphins have been playing well this season, but the Ravens are at home and this could be just the type of setting to kickstart Flacco and company. But I’m not holding my breath.

"With Matt Moore under center, Stills could be a favorite play tonight. He's coming off a big game last Sunday" by @FantsySprtsHome

Don’t be surprised to see a rejuvenated and animated Moore tonight. He’s got a great opportunity to seize control of the starting gig in Miami, nothing that a big game couldn’t help cement maybe.

"Phins D pretty good, but trouble covering the backs could open up play for both Buck Allen tonight." by @FantsySprtsHome

I expect Buck to be very busy in the short passing game, as well as tight end Ben Watson. Flacco may not throw for a ton, but he could complete a lot of passes. Get out your PPR calculator.

"Jay Ajayi may be the only strong & must-play tonight; Ravens D last in the league allowing 145-yds/gm!" by @FantsySprtsHome

The Ravens D has just struggled awful this season against the run and this would be the type of game the Dolphins would need out of Ajayi, lots of carries and lots of yards; could open some play-action and allow Moore to take a few shots downfield.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 19th 2017

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday’s Twitter Takes

It's Thursday night Football and there's nothing like it in the Black-Hole! It's the Raiders and the Chiefs tonight in a pivotal AFC West Divisional Clash. Smith, Carr, Cooper, and Hunt, the stars are out and it should be a good one, so get your pop-corn ready!

"Carr will need to do more than dink and dunk tonight, if the Raiders are to have success!" by @FantsySprtsHome

The Raiders quarterback has been banged up this season. He returned last week, but did not look like his normal self, dinking and dunking against the Chargers. Carr’s going to need a bigger game tonight for the Raiders to come out on top.

"Raiders will need to feed Lynch a heavy load of carries tonight!! by @FantsySprtsHome

Running back Marshawn Lynch has been significantly under-used thus far this season. He’s topped 13 carries just once this season back in Week 1. The Raiders need to give Lynch more carries tonight so he can switch to Beast Mode.

"Sleeper tonight could be Cooper, if he can hang on to a couple of passes!" by @FantsySprtsHome

The Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper has not been good this season, but this kid is just too talented to be bad. The Chiefs defense can be had and Cooper has the skills to have them, he just needs plays. I expect the Raiders to take a few shots with Cooper tonight.

"Crabtree should be in for a big night, especially in the Red-Zone" by @FantsySprtsHome

As I mentioned, this Chiefs secondary (25th most passing yards allowed this season) can be had. Crabtree is a Carr favorite especially close the endzone. Look for Crab to find paydirt in this one.

"Could it be another big night for the No.4 fantasy TE Kelce in Primetime?" by @FantsySprtsHome

The Chiefs tight end has played well this season on the big stage. In his last two starts in Prime Time he’s been dominant and the last time he faced the Raiders he torched them for 5 catches and 101 receiving yards. Kelce is a big part of the Chiefs passing game, so expect to see a lot of Red-87.

"Kelce has been big his last two night games; 15/209/1" by @FantsySprtsHome

It’s worth noting Kelce’s last two games under the lights, he’s been targeted 19 times. In these high profile scenarios it seems Andy Reid likes to utilize his big pass catching tight end.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 12th 2017

Thursday Evening Edition

Thursday's Twitter Takes

"Newton is rolling, no stopping the Cam train!" by @FantsySprtshome

Not much to say about this. Cam Newton appears to have rediscovered his MVP and over the past two weeks he has again looked like Superman.

"Funchess and Benjamin should find the endzone" by @FantsySprtshome

Both of Cam's targets (Funchess & Benjamin) are huge receivers with solid hands and will be in play in the red-zone.

"Wentz has been good, but a tough road match could slow his roll" by @FantsySprtshome

The Panthers have been tough against the pass and allow the 9th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Wentz is too good to be shut down, but the Panthers D is more than capable enough to slow him down.

"I'm looking for Agholor to again be the not-so-sneaky play tonight." @FantsySprtshome

The Eagles receiver broke out last week with a big performance. On the year he has three touchdowns and his 12 yards per targets ranks among the receiving leaders in the league. He's not a heavy volume receiver, but he's effective.

Tonight's matchup should be a pretty good one. According to the numbers this one could be lining up to be a defensive struggle, but I have a feeling we are going to see some fireworks from Cam and Carson. Both bring a nice compliment of weapons and too much talent on offense to be held in check. The running attacks will be modest tonight, look for most of the damage to come from the air.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 5th, 2017

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday's Twitter Takes

Last week kind of an easy pick with Green Bay handling the Bears fairly easily; actually took the Packers in my survivor. Although the Pack won it was costly losing Montgomery (ribs) and Adams (concussion). Of course Rodgers was on point, but with a full quota of receivers (Nelson, Cobb, and Adams), there wasn't enough looks for Geronimo Allison to go around (whiff). Bennett did his usual cameo, but for maybe a few more yards while Montgomery's shortened evening hurt owners. Not much to speak about when it comes to the Bears. Jordan Howard (Thunder) salvaged his night with a late score. Tarik Cohen (Lightning) flickered some, and even Kendall Wright ended up being playable.

Well that was last week, so let's talk about tonight's contest;

"Mike Evans should have a big night on Thurs night against the No.32 ranked pass defense. He's definitely a Week 5 stud!" @FantsySprtsHome

The Patriots are surrending north of 300 yards passing per game and have allowed 11 receiving touchdowns in just three games. Another concerning factor is the high percentage (69.7) of completions the secondary is allowing. There's little doubt Winston and company will test the corners and attack them with his big target Mike Evans. It's hard to imagine Evans not getting into the endzone tonight at least once.

"You can expect Tom Brady to be busy tonight playing keep up or catch up. Even on the road he'll be a Top-3 fantasy QB this week" @FantsySprtsHome

And while the Pat's defense is lacking against the pass, the Buccaneers are not far behind. Only the Patriots allow more yards passing per game, but a big factor to watch is the lack of pressure. The Bucs have only sacked opposing quarterbacks once in three games; yes once! If Brady is given time, he's like a mad scientist and will completely dissect the defense. Expect the mad doctor to go operating tonight, especially since the run game is lacking.

"Doug Martin returns to action tonight, but don't discount Jacq Rodgers. He'll still have plenty of flex appeal tonight!" @FantsySprtsHome

While the Patriots are bad against the pass, they are not much better against the run, ranked 26th. A notable stat, the Patriots also allow 5.1 yards per carry. I'm sure we're going to see Martin sprinkled into this one, but I would be surprised if Rodgers didn't log at least 12-15 carries tonight, and haul in a couple of passes.

"After seeing what Watson was able to do against this defense, Winston owners have to be salivating; Top-10 fantasy QB this week!"

Two weeks ago the Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson had a terrific game against the Patriots, passing for 300 yards and tossing two scores. Tonight the 3rd year Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston enters his matchup against the same Patriots defense with some pretty good weapons of his own. If experience counts for anything, we just may see Winston a very mobile and capable QB in his own right take his game to the next level; fantasy owners get your popcorn ready.

"Gotta love Patriots RB-James White tonight in a game where Brady is likely to throw as many as 50 passes!" @FantsySprtsHome

If numbers mean anything, the Patriots defense is going to have a rough go at it trying to slow down and stop the Buccaneers offense. That being the case, it just may be up to quarterback Tom Brady to keep his team in this one throughout and hopefully close the game on a late drive. Unfortunately (or fortunately), Brady and company will likely have to rely on his arm. Through 4 games the running game (ranked 20th in the league) has not been there averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Brady, the No.1 fantasy QB this season, through 4 games is averaging over 38 pass attempts per game; tonight he's got a great chance at surpassing his average with ease.

"DJax has been quiet much of the early part of this season, but tonight could be his breakout game!" @FantsySprtsHome

Currently DeSean Jackson is ranked outside the Top-50 wide receivers with just 9 receptions for 143 yards and a touchdown. His long this season is just 32 yards; not exactly what you would expect from a burner like DJax. The Patriots secondary is going to have to account for Evans all night, giving Jackson opportunity. Jackson will also have the good fortune of attacking a secondary that has allowed 19 pass plays of 20 or more yards (3rd most in the league), including 4 pass plays of 40 yards or more (tied for 2nd most).

Those are My Takes!

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 28th 2017

Thursday Morning Edition

Thursday’s Twitter Takes

Well I took a real beating with my takes on the two quarterbacks last week. Most likely neither was on your roster, but if they were and you sat them, MAN! That’s a lot of points to leave on the floor. Hopefully this week is an easier read. With Aaron Rodgers always a must and Mike on the other side of the field, who will you be starting?

“Rodgers or Glennon? The tough choices of fantasy football lineup conundrums” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Last week Randall Cobb was sidelined and Jordy Nelson was coming off an injury that had him sidelined. Talk about your lineup dilemmas, who to start. Packers receiver Geronimo Allison rose with the cream last week and with Cobb and Nelson back on the field, to the bench I do not think he goes. He’s a risk yes, but I am hanging onto Allison and if I need flex help this week he may be inserted.

“Don’t quit on Allison so soon. We’ve seen this kid before and last week he showed something. He’s go flex appeal!” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Running back Ty Montgomery has yet to disappoint and as fantasy’s No.4 running back (in PPR) I don’t suspect he’ll start this week, but owners should pull in the reins a bit. He’s healthy (removed from injury report), but he’s not invincible. Montgomery was slowed in the trenches last week and limited to 50 total yards. He’ll keep owners smiling with his receiving contributions and I would expect to see the Packers try to get him the ball more in space this week.

“Montgomery is catching everything in site (18 catches in 17), but A-rod needs to get him ball in space. He will” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Through the first 3 weeks this season Martellus Bennett has being seeing targets regularly, averaging 7 per week, but the problem is he’s not produced. Another problem it seems, they are asking him to run many routes; a lot of blocking and late releases. There’s no question Bennett has athletic skill and talent to make plays, he’s just not being asked to do that. Right now I can’t trust him.

“3 catches for 12 yds last week, won’t get it done. Can’t trust Martellus Bennett right now” - by @FantsySprtsHome

The Bears are coming off a big win last week and it’s quite possible they’ll carry some of that emotion into Thursday’s matchup. One player I expect to see benefit is running back Jordan Howard. He ran well on Sunday and should be fine Thursday against the Packers. He may not top 100 yards, but he should be fine with a score or two and upwards towards 20-plus touches.

“It’s going to be a busy night for J. Howard running against Pack 21st ranked run D. Start him all night.” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Like Howard, Cohen is going to see his share of the workload Thursday night. Glennon is not a great option here, but he’ll manage to get the ball to his scat back. Cohen is electric and wicked in open space. It should be just another day at the office for the rookie runner.

“If Jordan is Thunder, then Cohen is lightning and when he strikes look out! He’s got a lot of flex appeal in wk4” - by @FantsySprtsHome

There are not too many receiving options to like on a team that primarily runs the ball like the Bears; 38 times last week. The only option worth mentioning is wide receiver Kendall Wright and even he is not worth mentioning. I don’t recommend starting him, but you know what they say Glennon has to throw to someone. Maybe so, but last week he found a way to only throw 4 passes to his receivers and not one went Wright’s way.

“Even the Bears avoid their WRs, just four balls to WRs, but they did run 38 times. Avoid Bears passing game” - by @FantsySprtsHome

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 21st 2017

Thursday Evening Edition

Thursday’s Twitter Takes

If you are playing DFS this week, both quarterbacks Jared Goff (Rams) and Brian Hoyer (Niners) are to be avoided. While neither faces a dominant defense tonight, we’ve not see enough consistency from either to pull the trigger.

“Goff and Hoyer are off the fantasy radar tonight” - by @FantsySprtsHome

Rams running back Todd Gurley has looked like a pretty good fantasy pick through two weeks. If you’ve invested in his fantasy stock this season, feel confident with his potential gains tonight against the Niners run defense that’s allowed the 9th most rushing yards this season.

“Roll with the Gurley-man on Thursday night. He’ll get the work in to put up numbers.” by @FantsySprtsHome

Niners Carlos Hyde is a Thursday favorite and strong play tonight. The Rams run defense was decimated a week ago and ranks last against running backs, allowing a staggering 295 yards rushing in two games. Hyde ranks as the No.12 fantasy running back in PPR; look out Top-10 and Dr. Jekyll, here comes Hyde.

“Dr. Jekyll better warn the Rams run defense (ranked 30th), here comes Hyde! by @FantsySprtsHome

The only pass catchers I am endorsing tonight, are (Niners) Pierre Garcon and (Rams) Cooper Kupp. Both are highly risky plays and regardless of salary value, I would avoid in DFS. Both could be considered as long shot flex options in larger leagues and only because both will see a fair share of targets in their respective passing game.

“Not much value tonight, but if you’re looking for fliers, Watkins, Kupp & Garcon are the only with any value” by @FantsySprtsHome

The Rams wide receiver Sammy Watkins is an exceptional big play talent that the team will hope to exploit soon. Unfortunately right now Watkins is like a ticking bomb counting down; eventually the clock is going to hit zero and he’ll explode. The only problem for fantasy owners, we just don’t know when. Playing him right now is an unnecessary risk, so exercise patience.

“Watkins ready to explode? Who knows. Owners must be patient and sit him for now” by @FantsySprtsHome

All in all I expect tonight’s matchup to be worthy of the long historical rivalry between these two franchises and while it certainly doesn’t shape up to be, I would not be surprised with a higher scoring contest than what is being advertised.

All plays are risky, especially on those on the short week (Thursday night), but remember both teams are now under offensive minded regimes.

Go Shanahan and McVay.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega