FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition
September 14th, 2019

Week 2 Four Horsemen

Falcons, QB-Matt Ryan: Week one is history and in the books. After a slow start in the first half against the Vikings, Ryan managed to salvage his fantasy opener throwing for 304 yards with two scores and two picks. This week he’s home and will get to take his shots at an Eagles secondary that allowed 370 yards (ranked 28th in the League) to Case Keenum and the Redskins. With his plethora of aerial weapons, Ryan should enjoy similar success in the Sunday night showdown. While the Falcons would like to get their running game out of first gear in this matchup, I would still look for Matty-Ice to put the rock up in the air 35-plus times in this one. My prediction; 26 of 35 passing, 310 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Chiefs, RB-LeSean McCoy: I am buying into the narrative that Shady’s back, back again. McCoy reunites with his old coach Andy Reid who is the commander and chief of one of the most explosive offenses in the league today. While his week one return was hardly memorable for fantasy owners, it’s definitely worth noting his effectiveness and production. McCoy finished week one with 11 touches and 93 total yards of offense; that’s a ridiculous 8.5 yards per touch average. That kind of efficiency may be a little inflated, but as his usage increases, so will his production. As good as McCoy looked in week one, it’s hard to imagine not seeing his role grow with each week. The Raiders did a fair job in week one slowing down the Broncos run game (only 95 yards allowed, ranks 13th in the League), but this offense is a juggernaut and should create plenty of running lanes for Shady. My Prediction; 14 carries, 88 yards rushing, 3 receptions, 26 yards receiving, one score (rushing).

Texans, WR-DeAndre Hopkins: On any given Sunday, the Texans wideout is a stud, but this happens to be a match up that garners a little more attention. This week Hopkins, coming off a solid week one performance will be matched up against one of the leagues’ best corners, the Jaguars Jalen Ramsey. Normally a Ramsey matchup is bad news for the opposing receiver, but in the case of Hopkins such may not be true. In the past six meetings, since Ramsey has become a starter in Jacksonville, Hopkins worst performance came in their first meeting; 5 catches for 48 yards. Since that meeting, Hopkins has seen no fewer than 8 targets and averaged 6.5 receptions, 14 targets, and 83.4 yards, with touchdowns in 3 of their last 4 contests. Hopkins has generally been successful, but his skills and connections have just gotten better with each season playing with quarterback DeShaun Watson. My prediction; 8 catches, 94 yards, one touchdown, on 11 targets.

Chiefs, TE-Travis Kelce; I’m rolling with another favorite in Week two and not hard to figure out why. The Chiefs offense is clearly from another planet and even with the loss of wide receiver Tyreek Hill, it’s hard to imagine this scoring machine slowing down. With the absence of Hill, this should open up a few more targets for Kelce who saw eight in week one. Kelce was far from efficient in the opener, only snagging three of his opportunities, but he did turn those into 88 yards receiving. I’d expect the Chiefs tight end to once again see anywhere from 8-10 targets against the Raiders with a far better outcome of completions and production. My prediction; 7 receptions, 79 yards, one touchdown, on 10 targets

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 19th 2017

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday’s Twitter Takes

It's Thursday night Football and there's nothing like it in the Black-Hole! It's the Raiders and the Chiefs tonight in a pivotal AFC West Divisional Clash. Smith, Carr, Cooper, and Hunt, the stars are out and it should be a good one, so get your pop-corn ready!

"Carr will need to do more than dink and dunk tonight, if the Raiders are to have success!" by @FantsySprtsHome

The Raiders quarterback has been banged up this season. He returned last week, but did not look like his normal self, dinking and dunking against the Chargers. Carr’s going to need a bigger game tonight for the Raiders to come out on top.

"Raiders will need to feed Lynch a heavy load of carries tonight!! by @FantsySprtsHome

Running back Marshawn Lynch has been significantly under-used thus far this season. He’s topped 13 carries just once this season back in Week 1. The Raiders need to give Lynch more carries tonight so he can switch to Beast Mode.

"Sleeper tonight could be Cooper, if he can hang on to a couple of passes!" by @FantsySprtsHome

The Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper has not been good this season, but this kid is just too talented to be bad. The Chiefs defense can be had and Cooper has the skills to have them, he just needs plays. I expect the Raiders to take a few shots with Cooper tonight.

"Crabtree should be in for a big night, especially in the Red-Zone" by @FantsySprtsHome

As I mentioned, this Chiefs secondary (25th most passing yards allowed this season) can be had. Crabtree is a Carr favorite especially close the endzone. Look for Crab to find paydirt in this one.

"Could it be another big night for the No.4 fantasy TE Kelce in Primetime?" by @FantsySprtsHome

The Chiefs tight end has played well this season on the big stage. In his last two starts in Prime Time he’s been dominant and the last time he faced the Raiders he torched them for 5 catches and 101 receiving yards. Kelce is a big part of the Chiefs passing game, so expect to see a lot of Red-87.

"Kelce has been big his last two night games; 15/209/1" by @FantsySprtsHome

It’s worth noting Kelce’s last two games under the lights, he’s been targeted 19 times. In these high profile scenarios it seems Andy Reid likes to utilize his big pass catching tight end.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 19th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

My Fantasy Favorites

It’s a Saturday night and all I can do think about fantasy football; doing a mock draft and sharing more thoughts on fantasy favorites.

I’ve managed to participate in a few dozen mock drafts myself and have joined several leagues and the following players have been on my list of targets.

Depending on what my strategy has been in some of these leagues I have joined, if the tendency has been the running backs early, a favorite I have been targeting (usually) in the 4th or 5th round (depending on league size) is Lions wide receiver Golden Tate. Since his arrival to Detroit in 2014, Tate has been a machine averaging 93.3 receptions, 1,073 yards receiving, and more than 135 targets in each of the past three seasons. With the departure of Anquan Boldin and his 95 targets from last season Tate should slide into the slot position more and see his volume greatly this season. More targets this season can only elevate him above his 17th fantasy receiver position from a year ago.

Whether I am targeting running backs or wide receivers early, one player I have been eyeing in the early rounds has been the Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. There’s no question the big target is the Patriots Rob Gronkowski, but I typically don’t like taking a tight ends in the first two rounds where Gronk is going. Kelce is the 2nd tight end coming off the board which is warranted, since he finished last season as the number one TE with 85 receptions and 1,125 yards receiving on 117 targets. With wide receiver Jeremy Maclin (76 targets last season) now in Baltimore, Kelce is solidified as the Chiefs number one primary target in the passing game. At 6’5” and 255 lbs, Kelce is another Gronk and an ideal candidate in the red zone. Last season he was only targeted 15 times inside the 20, scoring three times; fantasy owners can expect head coach Andy Reid to change those numbers this season.

The Steelers have a not-so-secret weapon in wide receiver Martavis Bryant and even though he’s set to return to action this preseason, he still lingering around the 4th round, coming off the board as the 23rd fantasy receiver in PPR. That may be too rich to take as your number one or two receiver, if you go running backs early, but if you can get him as your third receiver I love his upside. Playing opposite Antonio Brown, he is going to see plenty of favorable coverage and his electrifying speed is just a big play in the making. In 2015 Bryant played in 11 games totaling 50 receptions for 765 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns on 92 targets with most of his damage coming in week 6 through week 15; good enough for the number 10 fantasy receiver (in PPR) during that stretch. He’s a fantasy monster in wait and worth the grab.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: ON THE COVER

December 21ST, 2010, Tuesday

On the Cover

Superman Has Returned!!

Mike Vick leads an improbable Comeback

If you were glued to your set on Sunday watching the battle in the Meadowlands between the Giants and Eagles, you may have left premature thinking this one was well in hand with the G-Men up 31-10 and less than nine minutes to play in the game. Well if you were unlucky enough to change that channel, you missed an incredible finish that will likely go down as one of the most improbable.

With 8:17 left on the clock, Michael Vick took over the game and brought the Eagles back from a 21-point deficit. Vick used his arm hitting his tight end Brent Celek on a deep middle pass that he took to the house for six to bring the Eagles closer, 31-17. On the ensuing kick-off credit head coach Andy Reid with a great call, a surprise onside kick with 7:28 on the clock.

With the momentum in full swing Vick next used his legs with a 35 yard scramble and a 4 yard scamper for a touchdown. The comeback was on and the Giants were literally helpless to stop it. The defense tried blitzes and coverage to contain and confuse Vick, but the playmaker would not be stopped.

With 5:28 left in the game, the Giants had a chance to run out the clock and close this one out, but when the drive stalled at the Eagles 40 yard line they were forced to punt. A nice kick from the Giants’ punter Matt Dodge pinned the Eagles at their own 12 yard line with only 3:01 left on the clock. As they had done throughout the game, the Giants defense continued to bring pressure and mixed things up.

With two incompletes from Vick caused by pressure from the Giants pass rush, the Eagles were faced with a 3rd and 10 at their own 12. The Giants would once again bring pressure in the face of Vick, but a critical error of not containing the elusive quarterback allowed him to get outside the pressure and ramble his way for 33 yards. As the Eagles drive continued Vick would again evade pressure and scramble for another 22 yards setting up the game tying score; a 13 yard pass to Jeremy Maclin with 1:16 on the clock..

The incredible comeback would be complete when the Giants unable to move the ball or run out the clock would have to punt away to the Eagles punt returner DeSean Jackson. And like a Hollywood script and finish, Jackson would return the punt back 65 yards for the game winning score as time ran out.

It was an improbable finish and an incredible meltdown. Vick would contribute to the success of both by completing 21 of 35 passes for 242 yards. He would also throw three touchdowns to go with his one rushing score. Vick finished the afternoon with 130 yards rushing to lead all ball carriers.

If you thought Superman wore a red cape and blue suit, think again. He wears number seven and plays for the Philadelphia Eagles.

By David Ortega

Video found on Youtube by hotnowsports

"Michael Vick throws for over 240 yards with 3 Tds, he also rushes for 130 yards.

FSH: FRIDAY FANTASY WATCH

November 5th, 2010 Friday

Friday’s Fantasy Watch

As I am taking a look at the week nine matchups it occurs to me what a strange season this has been so far. No Sydney Rice or Vincent Jackson (yet), Larry Fitzgerald has pulled a disappearing act, Reggie Bush has missed the past six weeks, Brett Favre has lost his magic, and Aaron Rodgers has yet to live up to his NFL MVP hype.

It’s become a season filled with predominantly running backs by committees and few super star fantasy studs. Sure there are Roddy White, Adrian Peterson, and Andre Johnson players living up to the hype, but who are these Brandon Lloyd, Peyton Hillis, and Kyle Orton fellas? And where did they come from.

Each week with some of the best fantasy studs taking a back seat for an afternoon and some new name running to the forefront, it’s been tough from time to time this season to figure out who should be in your lineup. Believe me, I feel your pain.

And so as we enter week nine I will offer a couple of thoughts as we inch closer to kick-off (just over 24 hours away). Here are a couple of players on my watch for Sunday….

On My Watch

RB LeSean McCoy against the Colts defense…

Last week against the Indy defense running back Arian Foster (112 yards rushing) was very productive not only in the running game, but out of the backfield as well. With the Colts traveling to Philly this Sunday, Eagles running back LeSean McCoy will be on my radar.

The Colts were burned nine times for 65 yards out of the backfield by Foster and even back-up running back Derrick Ward snagged a couple of passes on the evening. As a matter of fact the Colts defense has allowed 18 receptions to running backs in its’ last two games.

McCoy has great versatility and there’s no doubt the Eagles offense will be utilizing all his skills and taking advantage of any mismatches coming out of the backfield. In week seven against a tough Titan run defense McCoy was limited to 48 yards rushing, but was able to contribute in the pass game with six receptions for 54 yards.

On Sunday against the Colts 28th ranked run defense that allows 4.9 yards per carry, McCoy should be able to find a few running lanes. He’ll also be an effective weapon out of the backfield as an eligible receiver. With the Colts defense allowing 11 catches to the Texan’s running backs a week ago, I’m sure Eagles head coach Andy Reid and company will find many ways to get the ball into McCoy’s hands.

I will be watching McCoy in your starting lineup on Sunday.

WR Dwayne Bowe against the Raiders defense….

For the past several weeks there hasn’t been any receiver as hot as the Chiefs Dwayne Bowe (21 receptions, 357 yards, 6 touchdowns in 2010). In his last three games Bowe has five touchdown receptions to go with over 200 yards receiving. He has become a man possessed and unstoppable in the red-zone.

Normally with a tough matchup like the Raiders 5th ranked pass defense I might steer clear, but with shutdown corner Nnamdi Asomugha listed as doubtful and not expected to play I like Bowe’s matchup on Sunday. The Raiders are going to have their hands full trying to cover Bowe with back-up corner Chris Johnson.

I wouldn’t expect the league’s number rushing attack to suddenly turn pass happy this Sunday, so I don’t look for big yardage from the Chief’s go-to receiver. I would however bank on Bowe making it four straight games with a score and I would not be surprised to see him make multiple trips against the Raiders.

Not only will I be watching Bowe, but he’s a must start in my lineup this week….

FSH: THAT'S MY TAKE

August 13th, 2009 10:37pm PST

THAT’S MY TAKE

Eagles sign Michael Vick

Does this make sense for Philly?
On the surface you might have to view this move with some skepticism, but if you look beyond the off-the-field and PR issues, this is actually a smart move for the Eagles. Sure there are going to be those critics who would like to bury Reid and the Eagles for signing such a despicable person, but assuming one day we all can move past the aftermath and sting of what Vick did this move could reap great rewards.

Putting all of Vick’s troubled past behind us, what makes sense is the Eagles have the kind of foundation that he can redevelop and flourish. Lets’ face it, Donovan McNabb is nearing the latter part of his career and while Vick has been out of football since 2006, at the age of 29 he’s got a little more tread on his tires.

Let’s not lose sight of reality either, even though the Eagles have signed Vick to a two year deal, they couldn’t possibly have any expectations of seeing him play any meaningful downs this season. It would make sense that this move is an initial step to a long term plan, should they get past the first step.

Certainly this is a gamble with a player of such questionable character, but with people like Tony Dungy standing in his corner, lets assume that Vick is trying to move forward in the right direction. Once you come to this point in the road, if you look at all possible paths to follow, this could be a “can’t lose” move for the Eagles.

Making a simple comparison, McNabb in his youth was very much a similar type of versatile quarterback like Vick. He was very athletic and mobile coming out of Syracuse, but obviously as we have seen had the talent and skill to excel as a pocket passer in the west-coast system.

Where the biggest difference lies between the two is Vick’s lack of development as a passer. He has tremendous skill and athletic ability and no question when in football shape, he’s a superior athlete. The plus side in this move is Vick will be learning under the tutelage of Reid, a disciple of the west-coast system (coached under Holmgren) and former quarterbacks coach (in Green Bay).

The Key here is while Vick serves his suspension; he can learn under working under the same prototype of player in McNabb and absorb the offense while he trains to get back on the field. We’ve already heard some criticism (to be expected) surrounding this move by the Eagles, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I don’t believe it would be realistic to expect Vick to return to the field of play this season (it would be a huge surprise).

Vick has been out of the game for two full seasons and he may be in shape, but football shape is a different story. It will take time for Vick to catch up to the game, he needs to learn the system, and he also needs to develop as a passer. The last point is why I believe there is so much sense behind this move. Reid and his staff can work with Vick to develop technique, mechanics, and skill.

Vick is loaded with gifted ability and instinct. If he can develop as a passer and master the west-coast (or at least have a good grasp of it) at the bargain price the Eagles have signed him at, what a steal he could be. Realistically the team is not investing a whole lot in the “Vick Experiment” if you will, although they probably won’t be invited to any future PETA events.

This may prove to not be the most popular move by the franchise to date, but given time there could be some genius behind it. Remember, for the casual fan and the diehard, when it comes to sports it’s basically all about winning. And what do they say “winning cures all.”

There are two parts to this experiment that will go hand in hand. While Vick has a monumental task of regaining his old form, he’ll have just as much work to do off the field.

Once again, what looms large over the image of Vick won’t just go away in a day or two, he’s got a lot of work ahead of him and a fairly large mountain to climb. The tasks that lie ahead won’t be easy to overcome, but one thing Vick has is time and with McNabb currently under center it’s safe to say, so do the Eagles.

Good move or not you can decide for yourself, I believe it makes sense for the Eagles. It’s a low risk high pay-off gamble.

That’s My Take.