FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

October 26th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup

I won’t pretend to be a prophet or have a crystal ball, but I have a feeling tonight’s matchup could lean heavily one way. The Bills are coming off a disappointing Week 7 loss to the Patriots and with some home cooking on a Thursday, this may be just what they need to bounce back. With three straight games with a pick, Josh Allen will be looking to turn that page.

On the other side, the Buccaneers also suffered a Week 7 home loss to the Falcons, but a road tilt against the Bills may not be timely. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has remained middle of the pack as the fantasy QB17 much of this season, but he is coming off one of his better showings from a week ago. He will have his work cut out for him tonight against a hostile Bills crowd.

Here are my favorites for tonight;

Josh Allen (Bills-QB) Of course everything starts with the Bills signal caller. All things go through Allen and a big night I am predicting for the fantasy QB1. Allen squares off against a Bucs defense that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Allen should account for at least two scores tonight.

Latavius (Bill-RB) This one feels like one of those games where the Bills will move the ball well and set up a couple of goalline opportunities. I expect to see Bills running back James Cook to have success between the 20’s, setting up an opportunity or two for Murry to vulture a score tonight. Murray is on my DFS radar in this one.

Stefon Diggs (Bills-WR) It’s been the Allen-to-Diggs show this season and with a primetime matchup on the slate for Week 8, it should be more of the same. Diggs (fantasy WR2) is the second most targeted wide receiver in the NFL this season, so it should be business as usual for this duo. Diggs baseline is six catches for 60 yards and a touchdown. He’s a lock to put up similar numbers tonight.

Mike Evans (Buccaneers-WR) The Bills secondary of late has proven to be a little shaky. Evans (fantasy WR14), with his size, will be a matchup nightmare, especially in the Red Zone. Evans is averaging 9 targets per game over his last two outings, so he should see a steady diet of looks in this one.

Dalton Kincaid (Bills-TE) Coming off his best game and fantasy showing this season, the Bills rookie tight end will look to build off this momentum tonight. With veteran tight end Dawson Know already shelved, Kincaid could see an increased role tonight that pays dividends for fantasy owners.

That’s My Take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

September 22nd, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Afternoon Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 3)

(Week 3: Favorable Matchups)

We are two weeks into the 2023 season and there is plenty of data to review and consider, snap counts, targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. The sample size this season is still small, but it’s enough of an indicator for the probability of outcome and that’s enough for me to take a look ahead at the matchups for this Week 3 weekend. With a potential shootout in Minnesota and to a possible barn-burner in Tampa, these are some of my favorite matchups and plays for Sunday.

QB-Desmond Ridder (Falcons) - After a slow week one, the Falcons quarterback rebounded in week 2 finishing as fantasy QB12. This week Ridder is on the road, but faces a promising matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points, along with the 7th most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Ridder was solid in week two using his arm (237 yards passing, one passing touchdown) and his legs (39 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown).

 

RB-Javonte Williams (Broncos) - It’s way past due time for the Broncos offense to start leaning more on the run game. Williams has been quiet through the first two weeks, but he only has 25 carries through two games. The Dolphins defense has shown it is vulnerable against the run (ranked 30th) allowing more than 5-yards a carry. Williams should get his shot this week and could be in line for his best output this season.

WR-Jordan Addison (Vikings) - The rookie has had some flash this young season, scoring in both of the Vikings first two games. This trend will be tough to continue, but I like this matchup and his chances of posting solid week 3 numbers. Through two games his snap share count is over 60% and he has just one fewer target than fellow Vikings receiver KJ Osborn. This will be a matchup where the Vikings will have to air-it-out and Addison could see a slight boost in his target share, enough to put him in flex play territory.

WR-Chris Godwin (Buccaneers) - The Bucs face a tall task this Sunday when they square off with the Eagles. The Eagles bring a lot of firepower into this matchup, so Baker Mayfield and company will have to bring the noise in this one. Last week it was Mike Evans with the huge effort, but wide receiver Chris Godwin still had 8 targets. Through two games Godwin has seen a total of 14 targets, a steady average of 7 per game. With this type of usage, facing an Eagles secondary that has not been healthy this season, Godwin should be able to take advantage of a defense that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

TE-Dalton Schultz (Texans) - The Texans tight end has been less than steady and unspectacular through two games (currently fantasy TE31). Schultz has only recorded 6 receptions for 38 receiving yards on 11 targets through his first two games, but this week he’s got a chance to be productive. Schultz is coming off a game in which he was targeted 7 times and this week he’ll face a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the 6th most receiving yards and fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Texans tight end has a real chance at being a borderline TE1/TE2 this week.

These players may already be locked into your lineup and they may not, but if they are sitting on your bench and you are facing a start’em dilemma consider these plays for Week 3. I guarantee nothing and offer even less, these are just my predictions about their respective week 3 matchups and outcomes for this weekend. 

Strong plays to consider for DFS as well.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Evening Edition
October 4th 2019

Friday Fantasy Fixx

Week 5 Lineup Decisions

Running Back Trends
Over the past two weeks, here are the top 10 most used running backs;

1. Christian McCaffrey, CAR: 64 touches (51 carries/13 receptions)
2. Le’Veon Bell, NYJ: 53 touches (39/14)*
3. Leonard Fournette, JAX: 52 touches (44/8)
4. Nick Chubb, CLE: 50 touches (43/7)
5. Kerryon Johnson, DET: 49 touches (46/3)
6. Derrick Henry, TEN: 46 touches (44/2)
7. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL: 45 touches (37/8)
8. Alvin Kamara, NO: 45 touches (33/12)
9. David Montgomery, CHI: 40 touches (34/6)
10. Dalvin Cook, MIN: 40 touches (30/10)

DNP Week 4*

Targets to Target
Over the past two weeks, these are the top 10 targeted wide receivers;

1. Mike Evans, TB - 22 targets
2. Keenan Allen, LAC - 22 targets
3. Cole Beasley, BUF - 22 targets
4. Davante Adams, GB - 19 targets*
5. Jarvis Landry, CLE - 19 targets
6. Preston Williams, MIA - 19 targets
7. Chris Godwin, TB - 18 targets
8. Sterling Shepard, NYG - 18 targets
9. Josh Gordon, NE - 18 targets
10. Mohamed Sanu, ATL - 18 targets

Out for Week 5*

PPR Specials
Over the past two weeks, these are the top 10 targeted running backs;

1. David Johnson, ARI - 20 targets
2. Christian McCaffrey, CAR - 14 targets
3. Le’Veon Bell, NYJ - 14 targets*
4. James White, NE - 14 targets
5. Alvin Kamara, NO - 13 targets
6. Dalvin Cook, MIN - 13 targets
7. Devonta Freeman, ATL - 13 targets
8. Austin Ekeler, LAC - 12 targets
9. Saquan Barkley, NYG - 12 targets*
10. James Conner, PIT: 12 targets

DNP Week 4*

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Night Edition

September 22nd, 2018

On the Cover This Week!

Do you believe in Magic?

How about FitzMagic?

In two weeks the Bucs quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has turned the fantasy world upside down; but are you buying it?

In two starts this season Fitzpatrick has passed for an astounding 819 passing yards (on pace for over 6,500 yards in 16 games), 8 passing touchdowns with one rushing; that’s a pace for 72 touchdowns in 16 games. To add FitzMagic is also completing near 79 percent of his passes; 48 of 61 and he currently leads all fantasy in scoring.

While the pace seems unsustainable, the FitzMagic carpet ride is likely to continue into week 3. With a Monday night showdown at home with the Pittsburgh Steelers, FitzMagic and the Bucs offense will be facing the league’s 15th ranked defense against the pass.

The Steelers secondary has allowed 7 passing touchdowns in two games, most in the league and they are allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (standard scoring). They have also given up 9 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season, tied for 7th, while FitzMagic and the Bucs passing game have completed 12 such pass plays of 20 yards or more, including 4 for 40 yards or more (most in the league).

This definitely sounds like a recipe for another huge game for Fitzpatrick who was removed from the Bucs injury report this week and will likely have wide receiver Chris Godwin available, along with Mike Evans (230 receiving yards/2 tds), the 6th ranked fantasy WR in standard scoring, and DeSean Jackson (275 receiving yards/3 tds), the number one ranked fantasy WR  in standard scoring.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 2nd 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 13 Favorite Plays

Kickoff Sunday for Week 13 is just over 12 hours away and I am still shuffling many of my lineups, as this is a huge weekend with a lot on the line. In several of my leagues, a win this week will go a long way (post-season baby). These aren’t necessarily players I have on my rosters, but these are players that I like in tomorrow’s matchups;

CJ Anderson/Devontae Booker; the boys in Bronco’s backfield should be busy tomorrow in a road matchup against the Dolphins. The run game will be the priority, even in a timeshare, these two should get plenty of work.

Adrian Peterson; I can’t imagine the Cardinals not leaning heavy on All-day in the home matchup with the Rams tomorrow. It should be a busy day for Adrian against the Rams 27th ranked run defense.

Keenan Allen; The Chargers receiver leads the team with 67 receptions and 97 yards. He has been big at times this season and tomorrow could be another one of those games. Allen has 23 receptions for 331 yards and 3 scores; he’s on fire and should continue the trend.

Mike Evans; The Buccaneers receiver has slid down the fantasy tree some this season, currently at the No.19 fantasy WR in PPR. Evans has yet to surpass the 100-yard receiving barrier this season, but with 22 targets in the past two weeks and an easy matchup this Sunday and big game looms.

Jared Cook; the Raiders tight end has a juicy matchup and he’s in a few of my lineups tomorrow. Fantasy owners can expect a strong game from Cook with starters Crabtree and Cooper out for Sunday.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 19th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Gametime

Good morning and hello week 11. There are a number of Marquee games on the slate and all with fantasy implications with most season long re-draft leagues entering the backstretch to the playoffs. Good luck today and here are some last minute Quick takes;

Injury Notes

With Allen Hurns out today, Jaguars wide receiver Marqise Lee should be in for a busy day. Lee enters the day as the league’s No.30 fantasy WR ready to move up the board.

With quarterback Philip Rivers clearing the concussion protocol, the biggest impact will not be with just his receivers today, but running back Melvin Gordon. With Rivers under center, the Bills 22nd ranked run defense won’t be able to stack the line against Gordon.

The Redskins tight end Jordan Reed is out today and with him sidelined, tight end Vernon Davis will handle duties. This matchup could end up having quite a few fireworks today, not only will Davis benefit with Reed’s absence, but wide receiver Jamison Crowder will be busy in the slot.

Today’s Favorites off the Radar

With the Chiefs coming to town, the Giants should be gearing up for a potential shootout (if their offense can keep up). One player not getting a lot of run this week, but could be an early factor is Giants running back Orleans Darkwa. The Giants back should be in line for some heavy work early and could do some damage on the ground. The big question will be can the G-men keep this close long enough for Darkwa to make noise.

The Buccaneers defense is ranked 14th against the run, but through 10 weeks they’ve allowed the 8th most receiving yards and 10th most receptions to opposing running backs. The Dolphins Kenyon Drake has played well in a time-share with Damien Williams and over his last two games he’s rushed for 151 yards, caught 8 passes, and added 45 yards receiving. He could make some noise today.

My Perfect Lineup

This week I am all-in with the Raiders quarterback Derek Carr and his wide receiver Michael Crabtree. They’ll have what should be a favorable matchup against a secondary that’s allowed nearly 290 yards passing per game.

My other receiver is the Buccaneers Mike Evans. The Bucs are on the road and will need all of their playmakers today, including Evans.

The Giants will have their hands full playing the Chiefs today and they could end up playing catch up in the second half. Tight end Evan Engram has become a primary weapon in the Giants pass game and could be in line for a big day.

My running backs today are Kareem Hunt, coming off the bye, head coach Andy Reid will turn his dynamic running back loose, and Adrian Peterson. The Texans have a lot of injuries on the defensive side and Peterson should see a heavy workload today.

Finally running with the favorites today on defense today; the Jaguars matched up with Cleveland. My kicker is Justin Tucker. I can see the Ravens moving the ball, but all season the offense has struggled and Tucker will be called upon.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 14th 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Week 6 WR Rankings

The Patriots wide receiver Chris Hogan has emerged as Tom Brady’s go to receiver this season. Through five games Hogan is the No.5 fantasy WR in PPR with 23 receptions for 288 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is one of Brady’s biggest targets next to Gronk and has become an endzone favorite this season. He’s my No.10 fantasy receiver this week.

The Redskins wide receiver Terrelle Pryor is currently residing outside the Top-50 fantasy WR’s in PPR through five weeks, but this could be the week he cracks that barrier. Pryor looked pretty sharp in his last game and it would have been even better had he hung onto a go ahead touchdown reception late in the 4th quarter against the Chiefs back in week 4. Coming off the bye, he’ll be fresh and ready to attack a Niners secondary that allows the 8th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. He’s my No.14 fantasy WR this week.

With receiver Stefon Diggs sidelined this week with a groin injury, the other half of the Wonder Twins, Vikings receiver Adam Thielen should see a heavy dose of targets on Sunday. Thielen is the No.22 fantasy WR in PPR this season, but with no Diggs he’ll be the number one on Sunday and will have a great shot at moving into the Top-20.

WR Rankings

1. Antonio Brown

2. DeAndre Hopkins

3. Julio Jones

4. Michael Thomas

5. Mike Evans

6. Jordy Nelson

7. Keenan Allen

8. Larry Fitzgerald

9. TY Hilton

10. Chris Hogan

11. Tyreek Hill

12. Brandin Cooks

13. Pierre Garcon

14. Terrelle Pryor

15. Golden Tate

16. Adam Thielen

17. Davante Adams

18. Jarvis Landry

19. Demaryius Thomas

20. Michael Crabtree

21. Amari Cooper

22. Randall Cobb

23. Emmanuel Sanders

24. DeSean Jackson

25. Tyrell Williams

26. John Brown

27. Jermaine Kearse

28. Devante Parker

29. Sammy Watkins

30. Rishard Matthews

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 14th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 6 Sunday Perfect Lineup

The Weekly Perfect lineup contest is a lot of fun, but usually its always hit and miss and unfortunately I never hit all and usually miss all, Haha. Well here we go with my Perfect Lineup picks for Week 6;

QB- Drew Brees

The trend is always go with good matchups. Maybe the Lions defense has been pretty good this season, but a couple of things here to consider; one Brees is at home, always tough and two, the Lions were just torched by quarterback Cam Newton last week. Whatever deficiencies existing in the secondary, you know Saints quarterback Drew Brees is watching the tape and will look to exploit.

RB-Melvin Gordon

I have Mel G in a couple of leagues, so maybe this is wishful thinking, but Gordon is coming off a great Week 5 game (163 total yards) against a soft run defense and this week he gets the Raiders (ranked 25th against the run). The Chargers ball carrier is the featured back and averaging 18+ touches per game, with a prime matchup on Sunday, only good things.

RB-Todd Gurley

The Rams running back is having a great season, currently the No.2 fantasy RB in PPR. He's the 3rd leading rusher in the league with 405 rushing yards and he has 7 total touchdowns. Gurley gets the Jaguars 31st ranked run defense on Sunday which could mean a big day.

WR-Mike Evans

One of the league’s top talents at the receiver spot, Evans has been quiet the past two weeks and he is currently residing at the No.23 fantasy WR spot in PPR. This week however, Evans will get a crack at a leaky 21st ranked Cardinals pass defense. The Cardinals secondary has also allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including 7 touchdowns.

WR-Keenan Allen

Right now Keenan is the No.13 fantasy WR in PPR, he has 28 receptions on 52 targets. I love his volume and believe the efficiency will improve. This week he faces the Raiders 15th ranked pass defense that's allowed the (tied for) 5th most pass plays of 20 yards or more at 16. It was 2 seasons ago (week 7 2015), but the last time Allen faced the Raiders he pulled in 9 passes for 89 yards.

TE-Austin Seferian-Jenkins

The Jets tight end has collected 15 passes in his three games this season. This weeks matchup against the Patriots is a favorable one. The Patriots allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and have surrendered 4 touchdowns.

PK-Justin Tucker

The Ravens offense has struggled mightily this season, limiting Tuckers chances through five weeks. However, last week against the Raiders, Tucker was 3 for 3 with three extra points. The Ravens should be able to move the ball against the Bears, but could have to settle for a couple of chips shots once again. Look for Tucker to turn in another solid Sunday.

Broncos defense

The Broncos defense are ranked number one overall, they are number one against the run, Sunday night is a home game against the Giants. The Giants run game has been non-existent and they've lost two of their three top receivers for the season. I'd say, this one looks pretty good.

That's My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 5th, 2017

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday's Twitter Takes

Last week kind of an easy pick with Green Bay handling the Bears fairly easily; actually took the Packers in my survivor. Although the Pack won it was costly losing Montgomery (ribs) and Adams (concussion). Of course Rodgers was on point, but with a full quota of receivers (Nelson, Cobb, and Adams), there wasn't enough looks for Geronimo Allison to go around (whiff). Bennett did his usual cameo, but for maybe a few more yards while Montgomery's shortened evening hurt owners. Not much to speak about when it comes to the Bears. Jordan Howard (Thunder) salvaged his night with a late score. Tarik Cohen (Lightning) flickered some, and even Kendall Wright ended up being playable.

Well that was last week, so let's talk about tonight's contest;

"Mike Evans should have a big night on Thurs night against the No.32 ranked pass defense. He's definitely a Week 5 stud!" @FantsySprtsHome

The Patriots are surrending north of 300 yards passing per game and have allowed 11 receiving touchdowns in just three games. Another concerning factor is the high percentage (69.7) of completions the secondary is allowing. There's little doubt Winston and company will test the corners and attack them with his big target Mike Evans. It's hard to imagine Evans not getting into the endzone tonight at least once.

"You can expect Tom Brady to be busy tonight playing keep up or catch up. Even on the road he'll be a Top-3 fantasy QB this week" @FantsySprtsHome

And while the Pat's defense is lacking against the pass, the Buccaneers are not far behind. Only the Patriots allow more yards passing per game, but a big factor to watch is the lack of pressure. The Bucs have only sacked opposing quarterbacks once in three games; yes once! If Brady is given time, he's like a mad scientist and will completely dissect the defense. Expect the mad doctor to go operating tonight, especially since the run game is lacking.

"Doug Martin returns to action tonight, but don't discount Jacq Rodgers. He'll still have plenty of flex appeal tonight!" @FantsySprtsHome

While the Patriots are bad against the pass, they are not much better against the run, ranked 26th. A notable stat, the Patriots also allow 5.1 yards per carry. I'm sure we're going to see Martin sprinkled into this one, but I would be surprised if Rodgers didn't log at least 12-15 carries tonight, and haul in a couple of passes.

"After seeing what Watson was able to do against this defense, Winston owners have to be salivating; Top-10 fantasy QB this week!"

Two weeks ago the Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson had a terrific game against the Patriots, passing for 300 yards and tossing two scores. Tonight the 3rd year Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston enters his matchup against the same Patriots defense with some pretty good weapons of his own. If experience counts for anything, we just may see Winston a very mobile and capable QB in his own right take his game to the next level; fantasy owners get your popcorn ready.

"Gotta love Patriots RB-James White tonight in a game where Brady is likely to throw as many as 50 passes!" @FantsySprtsHome

If numbers mean anything, the Patriots defense is going to have a rough go at it trying to slow down and stop the Buccaneers offense. That being the case, it just may be up to quarterback Tom Brady to keep his team in this one throughout and hopefully close the game on a late drive. Unfortunately (or fortunately), Brady and company will likely have to rely on his arm. Through 4 games the running game (ranked 20th in the league) has not been there averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Brady, the No.1 fantasy QB this season, through 4 games is averaging over 38 pass attempts per game; tonight he's got a great chance at surpassing his average with ease.

"DJax has been quiet much of the early part of this season, but tonight could be his breakout game!" @FantsySprtsHome

Currently DeSean Jackson is ranked outside the Top-50 wide receivers with just 9 receptions for 143 yards and a touchdown. His long this season is just 32 yards; not exactly what you would expect from a burner like DJax. The Patriots secondary is going to have to account for Evans all night, giving Jackson opportunity. Jackson will also have the good fortune of attacking a secondary that has allowed 19 pass plays of 20 or more yards (3rd most in the league), including 4 pass plays of 40 yards or more (tied for 2nd most).

Those are My Takes!

~David Ortega