FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 9 FIRE & ICE

November 4th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

FF Week 9: Fire & Ice Report

Through Eight weeks of NFL action there have been plenty of players up and down throughout the season, heading into this Sunday. Fantasy studs like AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill continue to trend in the right direction and while others like Deebo Samuel are struggling to stay on the field. With less than 12 hours until NFL Sunday Week 9 kickoff, this is a short list of some of my notables that are either heating up or cooling down or (on) Fire or Ice (cold).

Fire

The Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (fantasy QB20) has been on a roll lately. Last week Burrow passed for nearly 300 yards, completing a career high 87.5% of his passes going 28 of 32, with three touchdowns. Over his last three games Burrow has averaged 261.7 yards passing, completing 76.3% of his 113 passes, and tossed 8 touchdowns. With a Sunday night matchup at home against the Bills, he's a fantasy lock for Week 9.

The Jets second year running back Breece Hall (fantasy RB15) looks to be firing on all pistons as he rolls into a Week 9 matchup on Monday night with the Chargers. Hall is coming off a solid Week 8 showing in the pass game, bringing in 6 passes for 76 yards and a 50-yard touchdown reception. Through his last three games Hall has been the fantasy RB4 averaging 77.7 yards rushing on 15+ carries per game. He’s also been terrific in the passing game adding 14 receptions for 147 yards receiving and three touchdowns (1 receive, 2 run) during this stretch. Hall is a must-start for Week 9.

Ravens running back Gus Edwards (fantasy RB30) has been hot of late, coming off a spectacular Week 8 performance with three rushing touchdowns. Edwards is averaging 61.7 yards rushing and 35.3 yards receiving over his last three games with most of the damage being fueled by his two most recent games. With a home tilt in Week 9 against a tough Seahawks defense he’s still a solid flex consideration for Week 9.

The rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison (fantasy WR11) has been the guy in Minnesota the past several games in absence of Justin Jefferson. In his past two games he’s been heavily targeted (averaging 9 per) registering 14 receptions for  205 yards and three scores. He has actually scored a touchdown in four straight games averaging 8 targets, 5.8 receptions, 74.2 yards receiving, with 5 receiving touchdowns. He’s a must-start this week against a Falcons secondary that has surrendered 5 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers the past two weeks.

Colts rookie wide receiver Josh Downs (fantasy WR37) has been trending in the right direction the past several weeks. For the past four straight weeks, he has seen no fewer than 6 targets per game. During his last three contests, Downs has caught 17 passes for 218 yards receiving and two touchdowns. After the success he has had in back-to-back games against the Browns and Saints, Downs faces a tough Carolina defense on Sunday, but he belongs in lineups.

The Bills rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid (fantasy TE12) has arrived. Kincaid is coming off consecutive games with at least 7 targets, 5 receptions, and 65 yards receiving. The Bills are one of the best offenses in the NFL and with his teammate Dawson Know on the IR, Kincaid should remain one of the primary weapons of the passing game behind (Stefon) Diggs. With a Sunday night Matchup with the Bengals on the calendar, Vegas has this contest pegged as the highest scoring affair in Week 9, fantasy managers can turn, and his name is Dalton (Kincaid), loose.

The Browns tight end David Njoku (fantasy TE12) has been quietly warming up. Njoku is averaging double-digit fantasy points over his last three games and in his last two, he has seen his target share and productivity increase significantly. With 17 targets in his last two contests Njoku has 9 receptions for 131 yards receiving and a score. The Browns will have quarterback Deshaun Watson back under center on Sunday and a home matchup with the Cardinals make Njoku a serviceable TE-1 this week. The Cardinals are allowing more than 10 fantasy points (ppr format) to TE-1 this season.

Ice

The Texans quarterback CJ Stroud (fantasy QB16) started out the season hot, but he has cooled off quite a bit over the past several weeks. In his past three starts, Stroud is only completing 55.2% of his passes and has thrown only three touchdowns.  He has a home matchup with the Buccaneers this week and although Tampa has struggled lately allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks for the past four weeks, Stroud is a sit this week in seasonal leagues, but remains a consideration in DFS.

The Packers running back Aaron Jones (fantasy RB30) has been on ice since returning from injury in Week 4. After missing Week 5, he returned in Week 7 following the team’s bye, but he’s basically been on a pitch count the past couple of weeks, splitting snaps with AJ Dillon, and has not done much. In his last two games he’s averaging 11 touches for 52.5 yards per game. Until Jones is healthy, he’s best left on your bench.

The Chiefs wide receivers Kadarius Toney (fantasy WR95) & Skyy Moore (fantasy WR88) entered the 23 season with much promise being a part of an offense anchored by quarterback Patrick Mahomes. In their last three games, Toney has 5 catches (8 targets) for 26 yards and a score, while Moore has totaled 5 receptions (10 targets) for 45 yards. Through 8 weeks this season, neither has done much of anything to even warrant a roster spot.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SATURDAY (FF) QUICK TAKES

October 28, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football Quick Takes

Rams vs Cowboys Matchup

The Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (fantasy WR7 - ppr) has collected 58 receptions for 752 yards receiving this season. He's a must-start every week.

Vikings vs Packers Matchup

The Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison is averaging 5.3 receptions for 71.7 yards and better than a touchdown over his last three games. He's a must-start every week.

Falcons vs Titans Matchup

The Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder has been the fantasy QB7 over the last three weeks averaging 295 yards passing, 1 touchdowns, and 22 yards rushing per game. He's in play in 2-QB and deeper leagues.

Saints vs Colts Matchup

The Saints running back Alvin Kamara is averaging 26 touches and 118 yards of offense over his last three games played. He's the fantasy RB3 during this stretch. A must-start matchup for Week 8

Patriots vs Dolphins Matchup

The Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill has totaled 53 receptions for 902 yards receiving and 7 scores this season. He is the fantasy WR1. He's forever locked in.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

October 27th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Late-Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

TGIF, it’s Friday night and once again time to talk fantasy football Week 8. We’re still in the middle of the byes, but fantasy managers get a brief pause and a break from the chaos with a full slate this weekend. This week has a full schedule of 16 games and lots of fantasy options on the table.

We’ve already had one game played on Thursday night and hopefully you were lucky enough to have Stefon Diggs (16 fantasy points - ppr) Dalton Kincaid (17.5 fantasy points), or Chris Godwin (17.8 fantasy points) in your lineups to start the week. If not, perhaps you were clairvoyant enough to play wide receiver Khalil Shakir (15.2 fantasy points). Either way, we still have a full slate on Sunday and plenty of options to fill out the lineup card.

If you are looking for some options for Sunday that might have appeal, these five players are all trending in the right direction leading into Week 8.

The Trending Five

Desmond Ridder (Falcons, QB) The Falcons quarterback has been playing well of late, averaging nearly 300 yards passing his last three starts. He has also accounted for five total touchdowns (3 pass, 2 run) while adding 66 yards rushing over this stretch. 

Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions, RB) The Lions rookie running back has missed a couple of games, but returned to action in Week 7 and did not disappoint. Gibbs was shifty and explosive totaling 126 yards of offense (68 run, 58 receive), adding a rushing score and 9 grabs. He’s a must play in Week 8.

Jordan Addison (Vikings, WR) Another trending must-play for Week 8 is the Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison. The kid has been on a tear of late catching 16 passes for 215 yards receiving, and 4 touchdowns over his last three games.

Josh Downs (Colts, WR) A  lot of youngsters on this list, so we continue with the Colts rookie wideout Josh Downs. Over his last three games he’s been the fantasy WR13, registering 16 catches for 243 yards receiving and two touchdowns. He’s in play this week.

Kyle Pitts (Falcons, TE) Coming on in recent weeks as one of Ridder’s dependable targets, Pitts has been the fantasy TE9 over the last three weeks. The 3rd year tight end has totaled 14 receptions for 177 yards receiving and a touchdown during the three-game stretch.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

September 22nd, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Afternoon Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 3)

(Week 3: Favorable Matchups)

We are two weeks into the 2023 season and there is plenty of data to review and consider, snap counts, targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. The sample size this season is still small, but it’s enough of an indicator for the probability of outcome and that’s enough for me to take a look ahead at the matchups for this Week 3 weekend. With a potential shootout in Minnesota and to a possible barn-burner in Tampa, these are some of my favorite matchups and plays for Sunday.

QB-Desmond Ridder (Falcons) - After a slow week one, the Falcons quarterback rebounded in week 2 finishing as fantasy QB12. This week Ridder is on the road, but faces a promising matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points, along with the 7th most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Ridder was solid in week two using his arm (237 yards passing, one passing touchdown) and his legs (39 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown).

 

RB-Javonte Williams (Broncos) - It’s way past due time for the Broncos offense to start leaning more on the run game. Williams has been quiet through the first two weeks, but he only has 25 carries through two games. The Dolphins defense has shown it is vulnerable against the run (ranked 30th) allowing more than 5-yards a carry. Williams should get his shot this week and could be in line for his best output this season.

WR-Jordan Addison (Vikings) - The rookie has had some flash this young season, scoring in both of the Vikings first two games. This trend will be tough to continue, but I like this matchup and his chances of posting solid week 3 numbers. Through two games his snap share count is over 60% and he has just one fewer target than fellow Vikings receiver KJ Osborn. This will be a matchup where the Vikings will have to air-it-out and Addison could see a slight boost in his target share, enough to put him in flex play territory.

WR-Chris Godwin (Buccaneers) - The Bucs face a tall task this Sunday when they square off with the Eagles. The Eagles bring a lot of firepower into this matchup, so Baker Mayfield and company will have to bring the noise in this one. Last week it was Mike Evans with the huge effort, but wide receiver Chris Godwin still had 8 targets. Through two games Godwin has seen a total of 14 targets, a steady average of 7 per game. With this type of usage, facing an Eagles secondary that has not been healthy this season, Godwin should be able to take advantage of a defense that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

TE-Dalton Schultz (Texans) - The Texans tight end has been less than steady and unspectacular through two games (currently fantasy TE31). Schultz has only recorded 6 receptions for 38 receiving yards on 11 targets through his first two games, but this week he’s got a chance to be productive. Schultz is coming off a game in which he was targeted 7 times and this week he’ll face a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the 6th most receiving yards and fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Texans tight end has a real chance at being a borderline TE1/TE2 this week.

These players may already be locked into your lineup and they may not, but if they are sitting on your bench and you are facing a start’em dilemma consider these plays for Week 3. I guarantee nothing and offer even less, these are just my predictions about their respective week 3 matchups and outcomes for this weekend. 

Strong plays to consider for DFS as well.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega