FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY WATERCOOLER

November 18th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

The Wednesday  Saturday Watercooler

Still working our way through the NFL byes with four teams out (Atlanta, Indianapolis, New Orleans, and New England), just some helpful numbers for the DFS gamers and the seasonal players setting their lineups for Week 11.

Here are the target leaders through 10 weeks.

WR-Top 10 Targets

1. Stefon Diggs - 102

2. Ja’Marr Chase - 99

3. Michael Pittman Jr - 98

4. Davante Adams - 98

5. Tyreek Hill - 97

6. Keenan Allen - 97

7. Puk Nacua - 96

8. Garrett Wilson - 95

9. Chris Olave - 94

10.AJ Brown - 92

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) There has not been a hotter receiver over the past three weeks than CeeDee Lamb. He has been heavily targeted (44 targets) registering 34 receptions for 500 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Consider Lamb and Top-10 candidate this week against the Panthers.

Amon-Ra St.Brown (Lions) The Lions receiver has been one of the most consistent pass catchers this season. Over his last three games St.Brown has been targeted 37 times, hauling in 27 passes, for 366 yards and a score. He’s locked in as a WR-1 this week against the Bears.

TE-Top 10 Targets

1. TJ Hockenson - 95

2. Travis Kelce - 72

3. Evan Engram - 68

4. Sam LaPorta - 64

5. Mark Andrews - 59

6. Kyle Pitts - 58

7. Cole Kmet - 57

8. Dalton Schultz - 56

9. David Njoku - 54

10.Dallas Goedert - 52

Dalton Schultz (Texans) Over his last two games the Texans tight end has been highly productive and efficient. Schultz has been targeted 17 times, turning in 14 receptions, for 201 yards receiving and a score. He ranks as a mid-to-low TE-1 in Week 11, even versus a Cardinals defense that has pretty good versus opposing tight ends.

RB-Top 10 Targets

1. Alvin Kamara - 56

2. Christian McCaffrey - 47

3. Josh Jacobs - 45

4. Rhamondre Stevenson - 45

5. Bijan Robinson - 43

6. Travis Etienne Jr - 39

7. Jaylen Warren - 39

8. Jamyr Gibbs - 38

9. Rachaad White - 37

10.Alexander Mattison - 36

Austin Ekeler (Chargers) Since returning to action in Week 6, it seems every week Ekeler is getting healthier and more productive. Over his last three games Ekeler is averaging 20.3 touches per game resulting in 143 yards rushing, 13 receptions (on 22 targets), 165 yards receiving, and 4 touchdowns. With an excellent Week 11 matchup with the Packers, Ekeler is a Top-10 lock.

RB-Top 10 Touches

1. Josh Jacobs - 216

2. Christian McCaffrey -191

3. Travis Etienne Jr - 189

4. Derrick Henry - 167

5. Rachaad White - 167

6. D’Andre Swift - 165

7. Tony Pollard - 164

8. Joe Mixon - 163

9. Saquon Barkley - 162

10.Kenneth Walker III - 161

Saquon Barkley (Giants) Despite the struggling Giants offense, Barkley continues to see just enough volume to stay relevant. Barkley is averaging 24 touches over his last three games, resulting in 302 total yards with no touchdowns. As long as the offense struggles Barkley will linger in the low RB-2/flex range.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF SOMETHING WORTH NOTING (WK6)

October 17th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football: Something Worth Noting 

(Week 6 Takeaways)

There was plenty to take notice of from the games just played. Here’s a look back at week 6 and some fantasy football notes that I believe are worth a take or two.

Jared Goff (Lions-QB) The Lions starter has been better than good over the past three weeks averaging more than 20 fantasy points per game. In his last two starts he’s been even better, averaging 36 pass attempts, 24.9 fantasy points per game, while passing for 294.5 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game. A solid streamer, maybe even starter in deeper leagues.

Sam Howell (Commanders-QB) The Commanders signal caller has been pretty good for fantasy managers the past couple of weeks. Over his last two starts, Howell is averaging 37 pass attempts, a completion rate of 70.3%, 269.5 yards passing, 2.5 touchdown passes, and 21.9 fantasy points. A great streaming options to get through the byes.

Raheem Mostert (Dolphins-RB) Handling lead back duties in week 6 and expected to continue in this role for the near future, Mostert is cementing himself as a weekly must-start. In his last two starts he has totaled 4 touchdowns (3 run, 1 receive), averaged over 100 yards of offense, and averaged 25 fantasy points per game. He's locked into weekly lineups.

Alvin Kamara (Saints-RB) Over the last two weeks, the Saints running back is the fantasy RB7. He’s averaging 20.5 rush attempts, 74 yards rushing, 26.5 yards receiving, 5 receptions, and 18 fantasy points per game. Another weekly lock and a reliable DFS play.

Travis Etienne Jr (Jaguars-RB) The Jaguars running back has been stellar for fantasy managers over the last two weeks leading all ball carriers in fantasy scoring. Over his past two games, Etienne Jr has averaged 22 rushing attempts, 95.5 yards rushing, 3.5 receptions, 38 yards receiving, two touchdowns, and 29.9 fantasy points per game. A DFS anchor and weekly starter.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions-WR) The Lions wide receiver has been about the most consistent this season. He suffered an abdomen injury that forced him to miss Week 5, but this season St. Brown has caught at least 5 passes in all of his games, including 26 receptions in his last three. He's locked in every week.

Adam Thielen (Panthers-WR) The Old man in Carolina has found the fountain of youth this season. Thielen is currently the fantasy WR6 (points per game) this season and he’s averaging 11.3 targets, 9.7 receptions, 99.3 yards receiving, and 23.8 fantasy points the past three weeks. H has to be started every week.

Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins-WR) Living in the shadow of Tyreek Hills the Dolphins other wide receiver has been steady the past couple of weeks. In his last two games, Waddle is averaging 9.5 targets, 6 receptions, 43 receiving yards, one touchdown, and 16.3 fantasy points. His upside makes it difficult to sit him anytime, a lineup staple.

Kyle Pitts (Falcons-TE) The Falcons tight end is starting to come alive this season averaging 15 fantasy points in his last two. Pitts has posted back-to-back strong outings with 11 receptions, 130 yards receiving, combined with one touchdown. He's back in the weekly starter conversation now.

Dalton Schultz (Texans-TE) The Texans tight end has been heating up of late. Schultz has scored in three straight and in his last two games he’s averaging 8.5 targets per game, tied for 2nd most among tight ends. He's a safe starter.

That’s My Take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY'S HEROES WEEK 6

October 16th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Monday Evening Edition

NFL Sunday Week 6:

Sunday Heroes

A big week of great performances once again and it’s time to shine a light on some of the fantasy Studs on Sunday. These are some of the dudes we wished we had in our lineups.

Sam Howell (Commanders-QB) The Commanders quarterback was brilliant for fantasy managers on Sunday against the Falcons. Howell only completed 14 of 23 passes (60.6% completion rate) for 151 yards, but he also connected on three scores. He finished the week as the fantasy QB6.

Kyren Williams (Rams-RB) The Rams running back was a stud on Sunday against the Cardinals. Williams toted the rock 20 times rushing for 158 yards on the ground and adding one rushing touchdown. Williams finished the week as the fantasy RB3.

Cooper Kupp (Rams-WR) The Rams wide receiver is back and looks to be as good as ever. Kupp was once again the leading receiver for the Rams on Sunday, securing 7 passes for 148 yards receiving and a touchdown. Kupp was the fantasy WR4 for the week.

Dalton Schultz (Texans-TE) The Texans tight end was a busy pass catcher on Sunday. Schultz was targeted 7 times and hauled in 4 passes for 61 yards receiving and a touchdown. He finished the week as the fantasy TE2 for the week.

Jordan Hicks (Vikings-LB) The Vikings linebacker was a true menace in week 6 on Sunday. Hicks recorded 5 solo tackles, 5 assists, one pass defense, one interception, one fumble recovery, and added a defensive touchdown to lead the Vikes.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WAIVER WIRE

October 10th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Late-Evening Edition

The Waiver Wire

With Week 5 long gone and in the mirror, it’s time to look ahead to week 6. With injuries always playing its’ part in the game, the Waiver wire never runs dry with new names, faces, and options to fill the void caused by the Bye weeks and injuries. 

My first Waiver wire notes are the pickups of the week (for week 6). The Steelers running back Najee Harris continues to lose volume to teammate Jaylen Warren. In week 5 Harris narrowly out snapped Warren 37 to 32 and the touches were 15 (Harris) to 12 (Warren). Warren has proven to be the more effective running back, particularly in the passing game. If he’s available, he needs to be owned.

In Kansas City where there is no clear-cut number two receiving option behind tight end Travis Kelce, I believe the rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice could emerge. Rice has averaged nearly 6 targets per game over his last three games and has 12 receptions for 124 yards and score. He has nearly doubled in fantasy points the next Chiefs receiver closest to him. The Chiefs offense has yet to hit its stride this season and in what could be a high volume, high octane offense, the second round draft pick (Rice) is one of the pieces that should be owned.

Here’s the list of other notable claims that should be made this week.

RB-Kendre Miller (Saints) - Alvin Kamara is the clear starter, but Miller would be the cuff to own and worth the stash.

RB-Jordan Mason (49ers) - Just like Kamara, Christian McCaffrey seldom comes off the field. But Mason is the cuff and he should be owned and stashed.

RB-Emari Demercado (Cardinals) - With Conner going on IR, Demercado, the fantasy RB18 in week 5, looks to be the next man up.

RB-Tyjae Spears (Titans) - Recorded 11 touches for 69 yards of offense in week 5.

WR-Josh Downs (Colts) - 21 targets in last three games, led team in receptions and yards in week 5.

WR-Jonathan Mingo (Panthers) - He was second on the team in week 5 with 7 targets. He has been targeted at least 5 times in every game played this season.

WR-Trenton Irwin (Bengals) - Targeted 10 times in week 5 to Tyler Boyd’s 7.

TE-Dalton Schultz (Texans) - He may have fallen off for a bit, but looks to be back on the radar (10 targets in week 5).

TE-Jonnu Smith (Falcons) - Despite the strong performance from teammate Kyle Pitts, Smith was still heavily involved. He out-snapped Pitts and was targeted 7 times in week 5.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WHIFFS

September 26th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Morning Edition

Fantasy Football Whiffs!

(NFL Week 3)

So week 3 was an unforgettable week for fantasy owners, filled with some generational performances that will go down in history. If you had players like Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, and Davante Adams in your lineup, you are probably smiling looking at your week 3 outcome.

If by chance you had any of these players in your lineups, your happiness does not exist. These were my Week 3 whiffs.

Ridder has a rough time in the Motor City.

QB-Desmond Ridder (QB26) - The Rookie quarterback could not take his show on the road to Detroit. The Lions defense stepped up and gave him lots of trouble, sacking Ridder seven times. After a strong week 2 performance (fantasy QB12), Ridder posted a dud on the road passing for 201 yards, no touchdowns and a fumble lost.

Following his Week 2 dud, definitely expected better.

QB-Trevor Lawrence (QB17) - It wasn't a terrible day for the Jaguars signal caller, but his 279 yards passing with one touchdown pass and pick for the QB17 spot is not good enough for owners that drafted him as a fringe QB1. 

With the matchup he had, expected better numbers

RB-Najee Harris (RB34) - The Steelers running back plodded his way to 65 yards on the ground on 19 carries. He recorded zero catches and was only targeted once. It’s almost time to leave Harris on your bench, almost.

Did not expect the team’s leading receiver to disappear.

WR-Nico Collins (WR66) - After two weeks, Collins was starting to look like a locked-in WR1. On Sunday he was only targeted three times. Catching 2 passes for 34 yards, which is a little concerning. At this point he still needs to be in lineups.

Still getting the targets, just not the numbers.

WR-Calvin Ridley (WR58) - After laying an egg at home in Week 2, the Jaguars offense came back and laid another in week 3. Ridley followed up his week 2 disappointing stat line with another on Sunday. Ridley only registered three receptions for 40 yards, but he was targeted another 7 times. His production has been anemic, but the opportunity is there.

Wasn’t expecting the top spot, but Top-12.

TE-Hunter Henry (TE25) - After consecutive weeks finishing as the fantasy TE1, Henry came back to earth. The Patriots tight end only registered two receptions in week 3 on 5 targets. His 3.7 fantasy points finished outside the top 20 for the week.

Expected Schultz to play a bigger role in the passing game.

TE-Dalton Schultz (TE43) - The Texans tight end was only targeted three times on Sunday, recording a single catch for 9 yards, in a game the team won. I certainly didn’t expect this low output from Schultz. This was a big whiff in week 3. 

I was expecting Hayden to be more involved.

TE-Hayden Hurst (TE37) - The Panthers tight end was quiet on Sunday recording one catch for 11 yards. This was the second straight game where Hurst has finished outside the top-30 fantasy tight ends. He can be dropped.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

September 22nd, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Afternoon Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 3)

(Week 3: Favorable Matchups)

We are two weeks into the 2023 season and there is plenty of data to review and consider, snap counts, targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. The sample size this season is still small, but it’s enough of an indicator for the probability of outcome and that’s enough for me to take a look ahead at the matchups for this Week 3 weekend. With a potential shootout in Minnesota and to a possible barn-burner in Tampa, these are some of my favorite matchups and plays for Sunday.

QB-Desmond Ridder (Falcons) - After a slow week one, the Falcons quarterback rebounded in week 2 finishing as fantasy QB12. This week Ridder is on the road, but faces a promising matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points, along with the 7th most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Ridder was solid in week two using his arm (237 yards passing, one passing touchdown) and his legs (39 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown).

 

RB-Javonte Williams (Broncos) - It’s way past due time for the Broncos offense to start leaning more on the run game. Williams has been quiet through the first two weeks, but he only has 25 carries through two games. The Dolphins defense has shown it is vulnerable against the run (ranked 30th) allowing more than 5-yards a carry. Williams should get his shot this week and could be in line for his best output this season.

WR-Jordan Addison (Vikings) - The rookie has had some flash this young season, scoring in both of the Vikings first two games. This trend will be tough to continue, but I like this matchup and his chances of posting solid week 3 numbers. Through two games his snap share count is over 60% and he has just one fewer target than fellow Vikings receiver KJ Osborn. This will be a matchup where the Vikings will have to air-it-out and Addison could see a slight boost in his target share, enough to put him in flex play territory.

WR-Chris Godwin (Buccaneers) - The Bucs face a tall task this Sunday when they square off with the Eagles. The Eagles bring a lot of firepower into this matchup, so Baker Mayfield and company will have to bring the noise in this one. Last week it was Mike Evans with the huge effort, but wide receiver Chris Godwin still had 8 targets. Through two games Godwin has seen a total of 14 targets, a steady average of 7 per game. With this type of usage, facing an Eagles secondary that has not been healthy this season, Godwin should be able to take advantage of a defense that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

TE-Dalton Schultz (Texans) - The Texans tight end has been less than steady and unspectacular through two games (currently fantasy TE31). Schultz has only recorded 6 receptions for 38 receiving yards on 11 targets through his first two games, but this week he’s got a chance to be productive. Schultz is coming off a game in which he was targeted 7 times and this week he’ll face a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the 6th most receiving yards and fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Texans tight end has a real chance at being a borderline TE1/TE2 this week.

These players may already be locked into your lineup and they may not, but if they are sitting on your bench and you are facing a start’em dilemma consider these plays for Week 3. I guarantee nothing and offer even less, these are just my predictions about their respective week 3 matchups and outcomes for this weekend. 

Strong plays to consider for DFS as well.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 1st, 2023

Friday Late-Evening Edition

My Top 10 Fantasy Football 

TE Rankings for 2023

Often considered the safety blanket for the quarterback position, today’s tight ends have morphed into much more than that. Viable weapons in the passing game, many of today’s tight ends are proving to be exceptional pass catchers with big fantasy upside.

Here’s my Top-10 at the tight end position:

The Top-10

1. Travis Kelce

2. Mark Andrews

3. TJ Hockenson

4. Darren Waller

5. George Kittle

6. Evan Engram

7. Dallas Goedert

8. David Njoku

9. Kyle Pitts

10. Dalton Schultz

The Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has separated himself into his own tier at the position. Kelce has finished as the No.1 fantasy scoring tight end four out of the last five seasons. He is King of the Hill until someone comes along and knocks him down.

With his arrival to New York in the off-season, the Giants tight end Darren Waller has a chance to return to his elite play. If Waller stays healthy, he has the tools and ability to produce at a high level. Back in 2020 Waller was the No.2 fantasy scoring tight end catching 107 passes (led all tight ends), finishing right behind Kelce.

My number 10 ranked tight end is Dalton Schultz. The former Cowboys tight end finds himself in Houston with very little competition for the leading receiver spot. Schultz finished 2022 as the No.13 fantasy scoring tight end and could easily improve his position this season with a young rookie quarterback (C.J. Stroud) under center.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega