FSH NOTEBOOK: FF SOMETHING WORTH NOTING (WK6)

October 17th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football: Something Worth Noting 

(Week 6 Takeaways)

There was plenty to take notice of from the games just played. Here’s a look back at week 6 and some fantasy football notes that I believe are worth a take or two.

Jared Goff (Lions-QB) The Lions starter has been better than good over the past three weeks averaging more than 20 fantasy points per game. In his last two starts he’s been even better, averaging 36 pass attempts, 24.9 fantasy points per game, while passing for 294.5 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game. A solid streamer, maybe even starter in deeper leagues.

Sam Howell (Commanders-QB) The Commanders signal caller has been pretty good for fantasy managers the past couple of weeks. Over his last two starts, Howell is averaging 37 pass attempts, a completion rate of 70.3%, 269.5 yards passing, 2.5 touchdown passes, and 21.9 fantasy points. A great streaming options to get through the byes.

Raheem Mostert (Dolphins-RB) Handling lead back duties in week 6 and expected to continue in this role for the near future, Mostert is cementing himself as a weekly must-start. In his last two starts he has totaled 4 touchdowns (3 run, 1 receive), averaged over 100 yards of offense, and averaged 25 fantasy points per game. He's locked into weekly lineups.

Alvin Kamara (Saints-RB) Over the last two weeks, the Saints running back is the fantasy RB7. He’s averaging 20.5 rush attempts, 74 yards rushing, 26.5 yards receiving, 5 receptions, and 18 fantasy points per game. Another weekly lock and a reliable DFS play.

Travis Etienne Jr (Jaguars-RB) The Jaguars running back has been stellar for fantasy managers over the last two weeks leading all ball carriers in fantasy scoring. Over his past two games, Etienne Jr has averaged 22 rushing attempts, 95.5 yards rushing, 3.5 receptions, 38 yards receiving, two touchdowns, and 29.9 fantasy points per game. A DFS anchor and weekly starter.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions-WR) The Lions wide receiver has been about the most consistent this season. He suffered an abdomen injury that forced him to miss Week 5, but this season St. Brown has caught at least 5 passes in all of his games, including 26 receptions in his last three. He's locked in every week.

Adam Thielen (Panthers-WR) The Old man in Carolina has found the fountain of youth this season. Thielen is currently the fantasy WR6 (points per game) this season and he’s averaging 11.3 targets, 9.7 receptions, 99.3 yards receiving, and 23.8 fantasy points the past three weeks. H has to be started every week.

Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins-WR) Living in the shadow of Tyreek Hills the Dolphins other wide receiver has been steady the past couple of weeks. In his last two games, Waddle is averaging 9.5 targets, 6 receptions, 43 receiving yards, one touchdown, and 16.3 fantasy points. His upside makes it difficult to sit him anytime, a lineup staple.

Kyle Pitts (Falcons-TE) The Falcons tight end is starting to come alive this season averaging 15 fantasy points in his last two. Pitts has posted back-to-back strong outings with 11 receptions, 130 yards receiving, combined with one touchdown. He's back in the weekly starter conversation now.

Dalton Schultz (Texans-TE) The Texans tight end has been heating up of late. Schultz has scored in three straight and in his last two games he’s averaging 8.5 targets per game, tied for 2nd most among tight ends. He's a safe starter.

That’s My Take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

October 13th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 6: Best Matchups/Plays)

The Books are closed on wWeek 5 and we are already one game into Week 6. It’s time to look ahead to the weekend and dig deep into a number of the matchups. As I look over the football horizon into the depths of the Gridiron gladiators set to take the battlefield for Week 6, these are some of the best matchups I like.

QB-Matthew Stafford (Rams) - After a tough matchup against the Eagles in Week 5 for the Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (fantasy QB20), I am seeing a bounce back game in Week 6. With the Cardinals up next for Stafford, he’ll face a secondary that has allowed the 6th most completions, the 4th most passing yards, and the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. With Cooper Kupp back in the lineup and his newest toy (Puka Nacua), this one sets up for a big Sunday at Sofi Stadium.

RB-Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) - The Dolphins will be without rookie running back De’Von Achane, but that’s okay, they still have Raheem Mostert (fantasy RB5). Mostert is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, has rushed for 314 yards, and scored 8 times (7 run, 1 rec) this season. Facing the Panthers this week, Mostert will have a chance for number 9 against a defense that has allowed the most rushing touchdowns, the third most rushing yards, and over 5.0 yards per carry to opposing running backs.

RB-James Cook (Bills) - The Bills running back James Cook (fantasy RB21) has been quiet of late coming off his worst statistical output in Week 5. With just 8 touches and 21 total yards it was a dud. Cook will have a chance to right his ship this week against a Giants defense that has allowed the 2nd most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, along with over 5.0 yards per carry. This sets up to be a get right game for Cook.

WR-DJ Moore (Bears) - The Bears receiver DJ Moore (fantasy WR5) has been on fire the last several weeks. Since week 2, Moore has either tallied more than 100 yards or receiving or scored a touchdown, and in two games both. His numbers during this stretch, 32 targets, 25 receptions, 506 yards receiving, and 5 receiving touchdowns. The outlook for Moore to continue his sizzle this Sunday is good. He’ll face a Vikings defense that has allowed the most receptions, receiving yards, and 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

WR-Christian Kirk (Jaguars) - After a slow start in week one, the Jaguars receiver Christian Kirk has been very consistent. He’s scored in double digits fantasy points for four straight weeks, with a floor of 14.4 points and a ceiling over 21. Kirk is currently the fantasy WR24 through five weeks and has a great chance at moving up the board this week. Facing a Colts defense that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing receivers, including the 7th most receiving yards and 5 touchdowns.

TE-Logan Thomas (Commanders) - The Commanders tight end Logan Thomas (fantasy TE6) is coming off his best game of the season in week 5 where he caught 9 passes for 77 yards and a score. With that strong performance a week ago, Thomas is looking at a great matchup in week 6 against a Falcons defense that has really struggled against opposing tight ends. Over the past two weeks the Falcons defense has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends which includes surrendering 17 receptions for 156 yards and a score.

Flex-Saquon Barkley (Giants) - The Giants running back has a chance to return this week, although if he does, he’s likely to be limited in some fashion. Barkley hasn’t played since week 2, but could make his return Sunday night. Even if he’s limited in some capacity, the opposing running backs numbers against the Bills (allow the most yards per carry) this season have been so good, Barkley could still post flex worthy numbers.

These players may be in your lineup or they may not, but if they are sitting on your bench and you are facing a start’em dilemma this week consider these plays for Week 6. I guarantee nothing and offer much less, these are just my best guesses for their respective week 6 matchups. 

Strong plays to consider for DFS as well.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF SOMETHING WORTH NOTING

October 3rd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football: Something Worth Noting

With week 4 in the books, a quick look back at what transpired might offer some hints as to what is to come and what could be. I don’t have a crystal ball nor am I able to read any tea leaves, but after watching the games on NFL Sunday week 4, I can offer some observations to consider moving forward.

Raheem Mostert fumbles twice

It’s interesting to note the two fumbles, considering the rookie De’Von Achane’s star is not only on the rise, but it is a fireball barreling towards earth. Achane has been an explosive and dominant runner. Achane has been a part of the rotation the past two weeks and has totaled 304 yards rushing; his season total of 309 yards leads the AFC. He has been the dynamite in the Dolphins backfield, with the loudest bang. I am not a betting man, but I would be willing to wager that week 5, it will be Achane getting some early work and dominating the usage on the ground. 

McLaughlin effective on Sunday

For the Broncos, not a lot has been going right for them this season, but they did squeak out a win in week 4. And although their starting running back Javonte Williams exited the game with a hip injury, the Broncos found a silver lining in rookie Jaleel McLaughlin. The rookie runner finished the week as the fantasy RB10, registering 104 yards of offense, averaging over 10-yards per touch. He was more than an effective fill-in, and after playing as well as he did McLaughlin has likely worked himself into a fixed role in the offense, and even greater should Williams miss any time. He’ll be hot pick up off the Waiver wire this week.

Jones on pitch count

Last week Packers running back Aaron Jones was obviously on a pitch count playing in just 20 snaps (35.1% of the available snaps). His appearance last week was a disaster for fantasy owners that were not aware of the snap count limitation. Jones totaled just 14 yards with one reception for the evening. Fantasy owners will need to see him back as a full participant in practice before they can trust him on Sunday. Since the Packers played on Thursday, Jones will have a few extra days to continue to heal up and return closer to 100%.

Cam Akers runs well in cameo appearance

There wasn’t much to note in the Vikings matchup with Carolina on Sunday. A non-prolific day for Cousins and the passing game, but of course even when Kirk struggles, Justin Jefferson still has a JJ Fantasy day. In the backfield however, it is worth noting one of the newest Vikings, running back Cam Akers, did see the field. Akers was on the field for 14 snaps and was featured in half with 7 touches, averaging over 7 yards per touch. It’s too early to make much of this, especially since starting running back Alexander Mattison had another solid outing. For now Akers is worth stashing as a cuff to Alexander.

Jonnu is more productive

The Falcons tight end Jonnu Smith (20 targets in 2023) has been a fantasy surprise this season. While he pitched a donut in week one, he has been a Top-10 fantasy tight end since, overshadowing his teammate Kyle Pitts (21 targets in 2023). Over the past three weeks, Smith has caught 15 passes (ranks tied for 3rd most among tight ends) and registered 179 receiving yards (ranks 3rd most). During this span Smith has been the fantasy TE8, while Pitts is fantasy 29. For the season Smith has more receptions and yards receiving (than Pitts) and should be the tight end owned in fantasy. 

Olave just one catch on Sunday

The Saints offense just looked bad on Sunday and it was apparent that quarterback Derek Carr was not quite right. As a result wide receiver Chris Olave was a non-factor in week 4, being targeted six times and recording a single catch for 4 yards. Fantasy owners can’t afford to sit Olave (just too much talent and ceiling there), so they need to check the practice reports on Carr this week. He needs to be healthy before they can expect Olave to return to his rightful place among fantasy starters.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

September 27th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Wednesday Evening Edition

The Wednesday Watercooler

Targets Equal Opportunities

Your fantasy players can’t produce without the ball and they need opportunities to produce. Week 3 was a big week for production, lots of yards totaled and points tallied, and undoubtedly a lot of the production was reflected in the opportunity that was there.

Let’s take a look at the Week 3 leaders in targets and touches.

Here are the weekly leaders for Receiving Targets;

Week 3

Top 10 WR

1. Davante Adams (20)

2. Keenan Allen (20)

3. Ja’Marr Chase (15)

4. Adam Thielen (14)

5. AJ Brown (14)

6. Justin Jefferson (13)

7. Deebo Samuel (12)

8. Stefon Diggs (12)

9. Jakobi Meyers (12)

10. Joshua Downs (12)

11. Romeo Doubs (12)

The Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, currently fantasy WR26 for the season, turned his 15 targets (most this season) in week 3, into 12 receptions for 141 receiving yards. By far this was his best output of the season and good enough for fantasy WR6. If this trend continues (26.4% target share), fantasy owners will start to reap the rewards from the draft capital they invested in Chase.

It’s really no surprise to see Adams (fantasy WR4) sitting near the top of the fantasy receiver tree. His 37 targets for the season ranks 4th, his 322 yards receiving ranks 5th, and his 25 receptions are tied for 4th. As long as he and Jimmy G (Garoppolo) can continue to connect at a high level (39.3% target share) Adams will remain a Top-5 fantasy WR.

Top 10 TE

1. Sam LaPorta (11)

2. TJ Hockenson (11)

3. George Kittle (9)

4. Kyle Pitts (9)

5. Evan Engram (8)

6. Travis Kelce (8)

7. Luke Musgrave (8)

8. Jonnu Smith (8)

9. Four players tied with (7)

The Vikings TJ Hockenson, also the No.1 fantasy tight end continues to be a Target Hog in the passing game. Hockenson is getting a 20.3% target share per game which is equating to 9.3 targets per. With that kind of volume it should not be surprising to see him at the top of the fantasy tight end tree. His 11 targets in week 3 were good enough to produce 8 receptions for 78 yards. With his current volume he’s Top-5 the rest of the way.

The Jaguars tight end Evan Engram has been trending in the right direction the past two weeks. With his 16 targets in that span, he has accumulated 13 receptions for 124 yards receiving, numbers good enough for fantasy TE4. For the year, he has 21 total targets which have him sitting as the No.3 fantasy tight end, behind LaPorta and Hockenson. This type of workload (18.6% target share) will keep him well inside the Top-10 fantasy tight end conversation.

Top 10 RB

1. Miles Sanders (10)

2. Raheem Mostert (7)

3. Kyren Williams (7)

4. Alexander Mattison (7)

5. Bijan Robinson (6)

6. Christian McCaffrey (5)

7. Travis Etienne Jr (5)

8. Josh Jacobs (5)

9. Antonio Gibson (5)

10. Six tied with (4)

Not only has the Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert been healthy this season, but he has been producing at an elite level. After three games Mostert is the top fantasy running back. He’s not only getting it done on the ground, but he’s contributing in the passing game with 10 receptions, 79 yards receiving, and a touchdown. His 17 touches per game, if this continues, will keep him in the RB-1 conversation.

Touches Are Fantasy Gold

Just like a receiver needs to be targeted, a running back’s success leans heavily on how many times they touch (carries + catches) the rock.

Here are the weekly Touch leaders;

Week 3

Top 10 RB

1. Zack Moss (32)

2. Tony Pollard (26)

3. Alexander Mattison (25)

4. Christian McCaffrey (23)

5. Travis Etienne Jr (23)

6. De’Von Achane (22)

7. Kenneth Walker III (21)

8. Josh Jacobs (20)

9. Rhamondre Stevenson (20)

10. Joe Mixon (20)

How good has the Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker been this season, he’s the fantasy RB7 through the first three games. Over the past two weeks, he’s been even better, totaling 140 yards rushing, 70 yards receiving, and four rushing touchdowns good enough for fantasy RB3. His 39 touches over the same span ranks tied for 5th. 

The Colts running back Zack Moss may only be renting the starting gig in Indy, but he’s looking like a permanent squatter at the moment. Over the past two weeks Moss has been the fantasy RB5 (tied with Jerome Ford). He has totaled 210 yards rushing and 42 yards receiving with 54 total touches (ranks 2nd). As long as the workload continues he’s a must-start, beyond week 4 we’ll have to see what happens with running back Jonathan Taylor.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 8th, 2023

Friday Late-Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx (Week One)

(Favorable matchups)

These are my week one notable matchups that I like very much. Make sure you have shares of these Fantasy Studs in your DFS lineups and that you have them in your season-long starting lineups. These are the ones to watch in week one.

RB-JK Dobbins (Ravens) The Ravens running back will face a Texans defense that allowed a league high 2,412 yards on the ground with 22 rushing touchdowns (also a league high). Dobbins will have a chance to turn in a solid fantasy performance against a defense that allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Fantasy owners are salivating.

RB-Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) The Fins have a big play running back in Mostert and on Sunday they look to turn him loose against a Chargers defense that ranked 31st against the run last season allowing over 5.5 yards per carry. The Chargers also allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing runners. Mostert could be in for a big day.

WR-Justin Jefferson (Vikings) The Vikings exciting 4th year receiver seems matchup proof week in and week out since he arrived in the NFL back in 2020. It is not as if you needed any more reasons to start him, but if you’re looking for a big game from J.J. he’ll face a Buccaneers secondary that allowed the 10th most receptions, 8th most touchdowns to opposing receivers last season. The Buccaneers defense ranked 26th against opposing wide receivers allowing the 7th most fantasy points. Expect J.J. to flourish.

WR-Chris Olave (Saints) The Saints 2nd year receiver will look to build off his solid rookie campaign in 2022 and his matchup on Sunday should lend itself to that cause. Olave will line up against a Titans secondary that allowed the 2nd most receptions, the 3rd most yards, and the most fantasy points to opposing receivers in 2022. This Saint could be in for a very big day.

TE-Gerald Everett (Chargers) In what is expected to be a high scoring affair, the Chargers tight end will also have the luxury of facing a Dolphins defense that allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 2022. The Dolphins defense also surrendered the 4th most receptions to opposing tight ends while giving up 10 receiving touchdowns last season. Everett looks like a good bet to score on Sunday.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Night Edition
September 21st 2019

Week 3: Four Horsemen

The are my week 3 starters, I’m riding with;

QB-Kirk Cousins, Vikings: It’s been a bit of a rough start this season for the Vikings passer, 25th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. Cousins has just 328 yards passing (ranks 30th), 22 completions (ranks 32nd), and 3 turnovers in two games. The start has been brutal, but a Week 3 matchup at home against the Raiders could offer some cure. The Raiders have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 711 passing yards and 68% completions over the first two weeks.

RB-Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys: This is an easy call for Week 3. The Cowboys have been rolling this season and much of their success has been without the impact of Elliott. Last week Zeke (RB12 through two weeks) saw 53 snaps and was effective on the ground with 111 yards rushing. His Week 3 matchup against the Dolphins (ranked 31st against the run) could see even greater success; Zeke looks poised for a big Sunday.

WR-Stefon Diggs, Vikings: If Kirk Cousins is going to bounce back in Week 3, he’s going to need targets to throw to on Sunday. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs and his quarterback have had a few near misses for huge gains; it’s just a matter of time. Diggs (WR71, PPR scoring) has been slow out of the gate, with just 11 targets through two games; this will change. The Raiders have allowed the 4th most fantasy points and 4th most receiving yards to opposing receivers; look for a breakout game from Diggs (and AdamThielen).

TE-Vance McDonald, Steelers: The Steelers are without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who exited week 2 with an elbow injury, ending his season. With Big Ben sidelined and backup Mason Rudolph under center, Vance McDonald (TE5, PPR scoring) was a busy target in Week 2. McDonald played 52 snaps and caught 7 passes on 7 targets for 38 yards receiving with two scores. Although his matchup this week is not the best, his connection with his quarterback appears solid and could to another big Sunday.

The 5th Musketeer

Flex play-(RB) Raheem Mostert, 49ers: The Niners running back currently ranks as the fantasy RB17, PPR scoring, and with the Steelers up next, he has a chance to continue his climb up the fantasy scoring ladder. Through two games the Steelers defense has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, as well as more than 100 yards rushing per game. Mostert has been a solid ball carrier this season with 123 rushing yards and a 5.6 yards per carry average; he should get plenty of run on Sunday.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Late Night Edition
September 18th, 2019

Wednesday Watercooler Chat

It’s Wednesday and time to gather round the old watercooler to talk some fantasy football. No worries if you don’t have a watercooler, the breakroom snack machine or out back for a quick smoke are just as appropriate.

It’s still a small sample size, but after two weeks there are a few trends we are seeing that are unavoidable, like the arrival of Lamar, and even compelling to watch, like the greatness of Mahomes, and in some cases believe, Dalvin Cook leads the NFL in rushing. 

Here’s a list of some quick takes you can buy, sell, take to the bank, or throw away (it’s all good);

Quick Takes:

• I am a believer in Lamar Jackson and sold on his fantasy prowess.
• Patrick Mahomes is a magician in or out of the pocket and “It’s Showtime!”
• Dalvin Cook is the real deal and Top 5 fantasy play for 2019, JMO.
• Is Mark Andrew better than Kelce; IDK, but I’ll take him!
• Odell Beckham Jr who? 89 yards later, that’s who!
• Carlos Hyde is no Jekyll, but apparently he can run!
• Has Aaron Jones been freed, because he ran free on Sunday.
• The yards are not coming easy, but Lev Bell is still getting the work.
• After his week 2 bounce back, in Godwin I am trusting.

It’s two weeks in the books and these are a couple of my FF notes to share; 

2 Studs Rising
Ravens, WR-Marquise Brown; Hollywood Brown is no secret by now and in week two the Cardinals defense learned his name up close and persona. Brown dropped 8 catches for 86 yards on 13 targets. If he continues to see this type of usage, he’s going to have some big Sundays!

Buccaneers, WR-Chris Godwin; after posting a modest week 1 performance that did include a score, Godwin followed up with a huge Week 2 showing. On Thursday night Godwin lit up the Panthers with 8 catches for 121 yards receiving and a score. With the Giants defense next up, it could be more of the same for fantasy owner.

2 Duds falling fast
Titans, WR-Corey Davis; through two weeks the Titans wideout has been missing in action. Through two games, PPR scoring, Davis currently ranks as the 94th fantasy receiver, according to Fantasy Data.

Colts, RB-Nyheim Hines; with the return of the Mack in Indy, Hines has become a forgotten name in fantasy. In two games Hines has only seen 31 snaps (unofficial) to Marlon Macks 97. Hines currently ranks as the 60th fantasy running back through two weeks.

2 Weekly Waiver Wire picks
Chiefs, WR-Demarcus Robinson; if you are watching what’s happening in Kansas City thus far this season, you just want a piece and any piece of this offense. Coming off a huge week 2 performance, 6 catches for 172 yards receiving and two scores on six targets, Robinson looks to be a nice waiver wire pick-up for week 3 (if available).

49ers, RB-Raheem Mostert; the Niners running back is another nice waiver wire grab, if available. Last season he got a little run in Frisco and looked pretty good. With Tevin Coleman shelved for a bit, Mostert is getting some run again and looks good. His week two strong showing, 83 rushing yards, 68 receiving yards and a score has him currently ranked as the 16th fantasy running back (PPR scoring), according to Fantasy Data.

2 Players to Watch (sleepers)
Broncos, RB-Royce Freeman; the Broncos are currently employing a full-time 50/50 share with Freeman and Lindsay and thus far, Freeman has been the more productive. While I expect Lindsay’s numbers to improve as the Broncos offense gets better, I don’t see Freeman’s usage suffering. He’s worth stashing and rostering in all formats.

Chiefs, RB-Darwin Thompson; with the Chiefs high octane offense firing on all pistons, the current backfield situation could open the door for opportunity for the rookie running back. Again, you want any piece of this offense that you can get, but Thompson could soon become a focal point in the run game and become a must-start.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega