FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Night Edition
September 21st 2019

Week 3: Four Horsemen

The are my week 3 starters, I’m riding with;

QB-Kirk Cousins, Vikings: It’s been a bit of a rough start this season for the Vikings passer, 25th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. Cousins has just 328 yards passing (ranks 30th), 22 completions (ranks 32nd), and 3 turnovers in two games. The start has been brutal, but a Week 3 matchup at home against the Raiders could offer some cure. The Raiders have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 711 passing yards and 68% completions over the first two weeks.

RB-Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys: This is an easy call for Week 3. The Cowboys have been rolling this season and much of their success has been without the impact of Elliott. Last week Zeke (RB12 through two weeks) saw 53 snaps and was effective on the ground with 111 yards rushing. His Week 3 matchup against the Dolphins (ranked 31st against the run) could see even greater success; Zeke looks poised for a big Sunday.

WR-Stefon Diggs, Vikings: If Kirk Cousins is going to bounce back in Week 3, he’s going to need targets to throw to on Sunday. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs and his quarterback have had a few near misses for huge gains; it’s just a matter of time. Diggs (WR71, PPR scoring) has been slow out of the gate, with just 11 targets through two games; this will change. The Raiders have allowed the 4th most fantasy points and 4th most receiving yards to opposing receivers; look for a breakout game from Diggs (and AdamThielen).

TE-Vance McDonald, Steelers: The Steelers are without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who exited week 2 with an elbow injury, ending his season. With Big Ben sidelined and backup Mason Rudolph under center, Vance McDonald (TE5, PPR scoring) was a busy target in Week 2. McDonald played 52 snaps and caught 7 passes on 7 targets for 38 yards receiving with two scores. Although his matchup this week is not the best, his connection with his quarterback appears solid and could to another big Sunday.

The 5th Musketeer

Flex play-(RB) Raheem Mostert, 49ers: The Niners running back currently ranks as the fantasy RB17, PPR scoring, and with the Steelers up next, he has a chance to continue his climb up the fantasy scoring ladder. Through two games the Steelers defense has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, as well as more than 100 yards rushing per game. Mostert has been a solid ball carrier this season with 123 rushing yards and a 5.6 yards per carry average; he should get plenty of run on Sunday.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 9th, 2016
Friday Night Edition

Friday's Fantasy Fixx

The Fantasy Playoffs are underway and unless you had the Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce in your lineup last night, with players like Rob Gronkowski (Injured Reserve), Julius Thomas (OUT), and Gary Barnidge (no quarterback) your options may be limited on Sunday. Playing in a multitude of leagues as I do each year, this seems to be one of the dilemmas I am not able to escape this week.

Gary Barnidge has been fantasy irrelevant since the season started and with the return of quarterback Robert Griffin III, there's no guarantee this will change and the risk this week is too great. With Gronk sidelined, fantasy owners can only hope that tight end Martellus Bennett will rise to the TE1 we believed him to be. So far in Bennett's past three games this has not happened; just 6 receptions for 40 yards receiving. Even with quarterback Tom Brady under center, Bennett may be too risky to sit on until Monday night.

Some options that some may be looking at for Sunday are the Redskins number two tight end Vernon Davis. Even with starter Jordan Reed in the lineup Davis has been productive at times, but faced with a tough matchup agains the Eagles (ranked 4th for the fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends). With so much at stake this week, owners may be better served avoiding Davis.

A less than (but still) risky play this week could be the Rams tight end Lance Kendricks. By far Kendricks has been one of the teams leading pass receiving options, third on the Rams with 73 targets this season. And this week Kendricks faces the Falcons defense that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. But like so many other options, Kendricks carries a lot of risk; just 2 catches for 13 yards last week. You have to like his matchup, but always the question "can you trust him?"

Probably my best option that I will lean on heavily this Sunday is the Niners tight end Vance McDonald. Now McDonald is coming off a week where the entire offense was completely ineffective and he only caught 2 balls for 9 yards. Prior to that McDonald had four straight games with at least 3 receptions and 46 yards receiving with two touchdowns. With the Jets coming to town and a defense that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the past four weeks, including three touchdowns McDonald is undoubtedly a strong play on Sunday.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID"S DAILY DIGEST

December 3rd, 2016

Saturday Morning Edition

Fantasy Playoffs, Playoffs, Playoffs

We are not quite there, but we have reached the nitty-gritty! With one week left before the Fantasy Playoffs start in many re-draft leagues. I play in several myself and this week is pivotal for my post-season hopes.

A couple of early lineup moves in my PPR leagues I made this week leading up to Sunday; in the Thursday night game I inserted Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs and Vikings running back Jerrick McKinnon. These were not necessarily simple plays, especially McKinnon, but being in PPR leagues both plays worked out.

With options likes Davante Adams, Chris Hogan, and Kelvin Benjamin, I chose Diggs for his target probability; he saw 8.0 targets on Thursday night and caught all eight. Diggs did not accumulate much yardage, but his eight grabs posted double-digit fantasy points and saved me.

Like Diggs, McKinnon was a tougher choice with options like Ryan Matthews (OUT) and Rob Kelley (only 8 targets all season) available, and his five catches on six targets and touchdown reception came up big. I may still roll out Kelley, but I am sitting in a much better position with McKinnons 16.50 fantasy points.

Looking at more lineup help for this week, with Jordan Reed OUT this Sunday I will be inserted tight end Vernon Davis. Even with Reed in the lineup, Davis has managed to make some noise and become fantasy relevant even as the number two tight end. Since week 6, Davis has averaged 3.5 receptions and 59 yards (this includes a week 11 donut). With Reed in the lineup he’s a low end TE2, but this Sunday Davis should be considered a TE1.

With the lack of consistency for tight ends like the Packers Jared Cook (2 targets last week) and the Rams Lance Kendricks (4 times this season with two or fewer receptions), I am rolling with the Niners Vance McDonald. He’s not a huge upgrade over the other two this week, but his five previous starts with no fewer than six targets leading and recent four game run of 3.5 receptions and 60 yards per game average with two touchdowns make him a much safer play this week. He’ll get the Bears this week who have done a pretty good job versus opposing tight ends, but they have surrendered 5 touchdowns (tied for 5th most) making McDonald a nice red-zone threat this week.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega