FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY WATERCOOLER

December 9th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

The Wednesday  Saturday Watercooler

Week 14 Free Agency

With less than 15 hours until NFL Sunday week 14 kickoff, there’s still plenty of time to make some moves to improve your lineup and secure that playoff spot. These are some of my Week 14 favorites widely available in many leagues.

RB, Keaton Mitchell (Ravens) The rookie runner emerged in weeks 9 and 10 as a flex play with consecutive weeks scoring a touchdown. He’s been quiet since, but following a Week 12  performance where he out-snapped starter Gus Edwards 33 to 19 and out gained him 89 yards to 37, he is trending in the right direction. For those desperate for help in the backfield Mitchell is only owned in 34.3% of ESPN fantasy leagues and 26.1% in NFL.

WR, Romeo Doubs (Packers) The Packers wideout is only owned in 39.2% of NFL fantasy leagues and 41.0% of ESPN leagues. Over his past four games played Doubs has been scoring in the mid WR-3 range, with 15 receptions on 20 targets for 193 yards receiving and two scores. With Christian Watson ruled out and a great Monday night matchup against the Giants (5th worst against WR), he should be added.

WR, Noah Brown (Texans) Before his return to action last week, in his last two games Brown had collected 13 catches for 325 yards receiving and a score. He returned last week, but was very quiet. With the loss of rookie receiver Tank Dell, Brown will have an opportunity to make an impact. Brown is only owned in 26.4% of NFL fantasy leagues and 42.7 of ESPN, and although it will be a tough matchup in Week 14 against the Jets, he’ll still offer flex appeal.

WR, Zay Jones (Jaguars) If he’s healthy, with the absence of wide receiver Christian Kirk, the stage is set for a big opportunity for Zay Jones to fill in and play big. Jones is only owned in 9.3% of NFL fantasy leagues and 25.8 of ESPN, without an injury designation this Sunday, he’s a low end flex with a tough matchup against the Browns.

TE, Isaiah Likely (Ravens) The Ravens young tight end has yet to turn any heads, but at the one position that is very shallow in fantasy, Likely has value. Only owned in 39.8% of ESPN fantasy leagues and 15.3 in NFL, Likely is coming off  a 4-catch, 40 yards receiving (on 6 targets) performance in Week 12 (fantasy TE18) and facing the 8th worst defense versus fantasy tight ends. A part of a heavy run offense may limit opportunities, but he still has a chance to be a fringe TE1 for Week 14.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

November 19th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday’s Morning Gametime

Amari Cooper (Browns) In his three games without Deshaun Watson as the primary passer (weeks 6,7 & 8), Cooper has averaged 9.0 targets per contest while totaling 12 receptions, for 219 yards receiving, and 18.25 yards per reception. Facing the Steelers 27th ranked secondary (DraftKings) versus opposing wide receivers, Cooper is a mid-WR3.

Christian Kirk (Jaguars) The Jaguars wide receiver has scored in single digits only twice this season in 9 games. In his last three games Kirk has been targeted 23 times, recording 16 receptions for 240 yards receiving and a touchdown. Kirk is in line to be a high-end WR-2 this week against a Titans 26th ranked secondary (DraftKings).

Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) He has been dominant much of this season as the number one fantasy wide receiver. Over his last four games Hill has been targeted in double figures totaling 48 targets. During this span Hill has turned in 33 catches for 425 yards receiving and 3 touchdowns. He’s a top tier fantasy WR-1 this week against the Raiders.

Josh Dobbs (Vikings) Since his arrival to Minnesota, Dobbs has ignited the Vikings and lit up the fantasy world. In two games with the Vikes, Dobbs is completing 68.8% of his passes, averaging 213 yards passing, with 110 yards rushing, and 5 total touchdowns (3 pass, 2 run). He’s a top streaming option for Week 11.

Jalen Hurts (Eagles) The signal caller for the Eagles has been on a scoring tear over his last three games. Hurts has been fantastic with 8 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing touchdowns, including 268.3 passing yards per game while completing 74.2% of his passes. With a showdown matchup on Monday night against the Chiefs, Hurts is locked in as a top tier QB-1.

NFL Injury Note:

WR - Chargers, Keenan Allen (shoulder) Good to go, no restrictions.

TE - Eagles, Dallas Goedert (forearm) Ruled out for Monday night.

RB - Dolphins, De’Von Achane (knee) Expected to be a “Full Go” today.

WR - Jets, Garrett Wilson (elbow) The Jets wideout will be available.

WR - Cardinals, Michael Wilson (shoulder) Not expected to play per Schefter.

WR - Texans, Noah Brown (knee) Officially inactive today.

RB - Vikings, Alexander Mattison (concussion) Expected to be good to go tonight.

Check the inactive reports for more updates.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

October 19th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup

Tonight’s matchup between the Saints and Jaguars may lack the same fireworks appeal as the Sunday Night showdown between the Dolphins and Eagles, but it will have plenty of fantasy relevance. With stars like Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Calvin Ridley headlining tonight’s showcase, there should be enough action to keep fantasy managers interested. 

Ones to Watch

The Jaguars starting running rack Travis Etienne Jr (fantasy RB3 the past three weeks) has been rolling of late, averaging 113 yards of offense and better than a touchdown over his last three games. The Saints rookie receiver Rashid Shaheed scored his second touchdown of the season this past Sunday and has been targeted 15 times in his last three games.

For the DFS play tonight, I have some favorites.

Alvin Kamara (Saint-RB) Kamara has been heavily targeted (25 targets) since week 4, when he returned from his three-game suspension. The Saints ball-carrier has yet to break out, but the heavy volume (25 touches per game this season) and fantasy production is there. It’s just a matter of time before Kamara has a blow up game. He’s my favorite in this one tonight.

Derek Carr (Saints-QB) The Jaguars have a pretty good defense, so it could be tough sledding for Carr and company tonight. The Saints signal caller is now a few weeks removed from his shoulder injury and each week he’s seeming to play a little better. Last week Carr passed for 353 yards passing 50 times. He may not quite get to 50 in this one, but he could have some great success with Kamara out of the backfield and his favorite target in the mid-range, Chris Olave.

Chris Olave (Saints-WR) The Saints top receiving option is coming off a 10-target, 7 reception showing in Week 6. After a fast start this season (32 targets in three games), Olave seemed to have cooled down when his quarterback went down. With Carr now appearing healthy again, fantasy managers can expect to see more of the early season Olave going forward. He’s in for a busy night.

Christian Kirk (Jaguars-WR) After a quiet opening Sunday recording just one catch for 9 yards receiving, Kirk has been the model of consistency for the Jaguars. In his last 5 games he’s had at least 6 targets and recorded at least 6 receptions or scored a touchdown. He’s averaging over 16 fantasy points per game during this stretch and is the fantasy WR15. He’s a safe play in this matchup tonight.

Evan Engram (Jaguars-TE) Just like Kirk, the Jaguars tight end Evan Engram has been Mr. Consistent. This season he’s scored in double digit fantasy points in 4 of 6 games, only once has he scored less than 9.9 fantasy points, and he’s been targeted at least 7 times in 5 of his 6 games. Engram is the fantasy TE6 this season and while on paper the matchup against the Saints defense (ranked 7th vs tight ends) looks tough, in week 6 the Texans were able to enjoy success going to the tight end position. I’d expect the usual numbers from Engram in this one.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

October 13th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 6: Best Matchups/Plays)

The Books are closed on wWeek 5 and we are already one game into Week 6. It’s time to look ahead to the weekend and dig deep into a number of the matchups. As I look over the football horizon into the depths of the Gridiron gladiators set to take the battlefield for Week 6, these are some of the best matchups I like.

QB-Matthew Stafford (Rams) - After a tough matchup against the Eagles in Week 5 for the Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (fantasy QB20), I am seeing a bounce back game in Week 6. With the Cardinals up next for Stafford, he’ll face a secondary that has allowed the 6th most completions, the 4th most passing yards, and the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. With Cooper Kupp back in the lineup and his newest toy (Puka Nacua), this one sets up for a big Sunday at Sofi Stadium.

RB-Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) - The Dolphins will be without rookie running back De’Von Achane, but that’s okay, they still have Raheem Mostert (fantasy RB5). Mostert is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, has rushed for 314 yards, and scored 8 times (7 run, 1 rec) this season. Facing the Panthers this week, Mostert will have a chance for number 9 against a defense that has allowed the most rushing touchdowns, the third most rushing yards, and over 5.0 yards per carry to opposing running backs.

RB-James Cook (Bills) - The Bills running back James Cook (fantasy RB21) has been quiet of late coming off his worst statistical output in Week 5. With just 8 touches and 21 total yards it was a dud. Cook will have a chance to right his ship this week against a Giants defense that has allowed the 2nd most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, along with over 5.0 yards per carry. This sets up to be a get right game for Cook.

WR-DJ Moore (Bears) - The Bears receiver DJ Moore (fantasy WR5) has been on fire the last several weeks. Since week 2, Moore has either tallied more than 100 yards or receiving or scored a touchdown, and in two games both. His numbers during this stretch, 32 targets, 25 receptions, 506 yards receiving, and 5 receiving touchdowns. The outlook for Moore to continue his sizzle this Sunday is good. He’ll face a Vikings defense that has allowed the most receptions, receiving yards, and 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

WR-Christian Kirk (Jaguars) - After a slow start in week one, the Jaguars receiver Christian Kirk has been very consistent. He’s scored in double digits fantasy points for four straight weeks, with a floor of 14.4 points and a ceiling over 21. Kirk is currently the fantasy WR24 through five weeks and has a great chance at moving up the board this week. Facing a Colts defense that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing receivers, including the 7th most receiving yards and 5 touchdowns.

TE-Logan Thomas (Commanders) - The Commanders tight end Logan Thomas (fantasy TE6) is coming off his best game of the season in week 5 where he caught 9 passes for 77 yards and a score. With that strong performance a week ago, Thomas is looking at a great matchup in week 6 against a Falcons defense that has really struggled against opposing tight ends. Over the past two weeks the Falcons defense has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends which includes surrendering 17 receptions for 156 yards and a score.

Flex-Saquon Barkley (Giants) - The Giants running back has a chance to return this week, although if he does, he’s likely to be limited in some fashion. Barkley hasn’t played since week 2, but could make his return Sunday night. Even if he’s limited in some capacity, the opposing running backs numbers against the Bills (allow the most yards per carry) this season have been so good, Barkley could still post flex worthy numbers.

These players may be in your lineup or they may not, but if they are sitting on your bench and you are facing a start’em dilemma this week consider these plays for Week 6. I guarantee nothing and offer much less, these are just my best guesses for their respective week 6 matchups. 

Strong plays to consider for DFS as well.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 4th, 2023

Monday Morning Edition

2023 Draft Day: On the Clock

(12-Team, PPR format, Fantasy Calculator ADP)

WR-Christian Kirk, Current ADP 5.12 – Last season Kirk was the Jaguars leading receiver posting career highs in receptions (84), yards receiving (1,108), and receiving touchdowns (8).  He has improved every season and will be entering his 2nd year with the Jags. Kirk finished as the No.19 fantasy receiver in 2022 and is coming off the draft boards as WR30.

RB-Alvin Kamara, Current ADP 6.09 – The Saints running back will have to sit the first three games of this season due to suspension. He’s coming off the draft boards as the No.25 fantasy running back. Last season Kamara was the No.13 fantasy running back finishing the 2022 campaign with 897 yards rushing to along with 57 receptions, 490 yards receiving, and just a career low four total touchdowns.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Night Edition
November 9th 2019

DFS Saturday

It’s almost Sunday of NFL Week 10, and there are a lot of good matchups and ways to go with when building your lineups. The first place I am starting has to be the prime Fantasy matchup between the Buccaneers and the Cardinals; the over-under is set at 54 points.

Both defenses rank near the bottom against the pass (Ari-29th, TB-32nd), so there should be and could be a plethora of points on Sunday.

Players of interest for those that may be considering, Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston will face a Cardinals defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 24 touchdowns (tied for most in the league). 

Getting the start this week, the Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones III will get a crack at the Cardinals defense that has allowed the 8th most rushing yards to opposing running backs, including 4.4 yards per carry.

On the other side, this may be a great week for Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray, who will face the Bucs defense that allows the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 19 touchdowns (2nd most in the league).

What would also make a great stack and connection with Murray is wide receiver Christian Kirk. The Buccaneers defense allows the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. 

There are of course no guarantees when playing DFS, but I like my chances with these matchups on Sunday.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega