FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY WATERCOOLER

December 9th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

The Wednesday  Saturday Watercooler

Week 14 Free Agency

With less than 15 hours until NFL Sunday week 14 kickoff, there’s still plenty of time to make some moves to improve your lineup and secure that playoff spot. These are some of my Week 14 favorites widely available in many leagues.

RB, Keaton Mitchell (Ravens) The rookie runner emerged in weeks 9 and 10 as a flex play with consecutive weeks scoring a touchdown. He’s been quiet since, but following a Week 12  performance where he out-snapped starter Gus Edwards 33 to 19 and out gained him 89 yards to 37, he is trending in the right direction. For those desperate for help in the backfield Mitchell is only owned in 34.3% of ESPN fantasy leagues and 26.1% in NFL.

WR, Romeo Doubs (Packers) The Packers wideout is only owned in 39.2% of NFL fantasy leagues and 41.0% of ESPN leagues. Over his past four games played Doubs has been scoring in the mid WR-3 range, with 15 receptions on 20 targets for 193 yards receiving and two scores. With Christian Watson ruled out and a great Monday night matchup against the Giants (5th worst against WR), he should be added.

WR, Noah Brown (Texans) Before his return to action last week, in his last two games Brown had collected 13 catches for 325 yards receiving and a score. He returned last week, but was very quiet. With the loss of rookie receiver Tank Dell, Brown will have an opportunity to make an impact. Brown is only owned in 26.4% of NFL fantasy leagues and 42.7 of ESPN, and although it will be a tough matchup in Week 14 against the Jets, he’ll still offer flex appeal.

WR, Zay Jones (Jaguars) If he’s healthy, with the absence of wide receiver Christian Kirk, the stage is set for a big opportunity for Zay Jones to fill in and play big. Jones is only owned in 9.3% of NFL fantasy leagues and 25.8 of ESPN, without an injury designation this Sunday, he’s a low end flex with a tough matchup against the Browns.

TE, Isaiah Likely (Ravens) The Ravens young tight end has yet to turn any heads, but at the one position that is very shallow in fantasy, Likely has value. Only owned in 39.8% of ESPN fantasy leagues and 15.3 in NFL, Likely is coming off  a 4-catch, 40 yards receiving (on 6 targets) performance in Week 12 (fantasy TE18) and facing the 8th worst defense versus fantasy tight ends. A part of a heavy run offense may limit opportunities, but he still has a chance to be a fringe TE1 for Week 14.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

November 22nd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Wednesday Evening Edition

The Wednesday Watercooler

Fantasy notes for Week 12.

Over his last three games, the Texans rookie quarterback CJ Stroud is completing 69.2% of his passes, while averaging 387.3 yards passing per game this season. Stroud is a low-end QB-1 against the Jaguars in Week 12.

Over his last three starts the 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is completing 77.8% of his passes, while averaging 331.3 yards passing per game this season. On the road this Thursday, Purdy is a QB-1 in Week 12 versus the Seahawks.

In his last four starts the Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has been on a tear tossing 13 touchdowns and adding one rushing score, while averaging 317.8 yards passing per game. With a Week 12 Thanksgiving day matchup against the Commanders, Prescott will be a top-end QB-1.

The Texans running back Devin Singletary has averaged 26 carries over his last two games, while averaging 131 yards rushing and 5.0 yards per carry. With the potential return of running back Dameon Pierce, Singletary should be considered a back-end RB2/flex option this week.

The Bills running back James Cook ranks 5th among running backs with 269 yards rushing over the last 4 weeks and he's averaging 5.5 yards per carry during this stretch. With a Week 12 showdown matchup on Sunday against the Eagles, Cook figures in as a low RB2. 

Since week 8, the Ravens running Gus Edwards leads the NFL with 8 rushing touchdowns while rushing for 218 yards. Edwards will slot in this week as a strong RB2 play against the Chargers on Sunday night.

Since Week 8, the Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (fantasy RB11) has been targeted 21 times and leads all running backs with 19 receptions. Effective in the pass game, White should be considered a strong RB2 this week against the Colts.

Since Week 7, the Lions rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs (fantasy RB6) has been targeted 26 times, registering 23 receptions and 189 yards receiving (ranks 4th among RBs during this stretch). Gibbs is locked in as a borderline RB1/RB2.

In Week 11, the Giants running back Saquon Barkley (fantasy RB9) turned 5 targets into 4 receptions, 57 yards receiving, with two touchdown catches. Barkley has 27 receptions for 162 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns this season. With a Week 12 tilt on Sunday against the Patriots, Barkley is locked in as an RB1.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING QUICK TAKES (WEEK 10)

November 12th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

Week 10 FF Quick Takes

The Rambling Runners

Gus Edwards (Ravens)

The Ravens running back has had the hot hand of late scoring 6 rushing touchdowns his last three games. This week he faces the Browns 6th ranked run defense, so treading on the ground this week could be tough, fantasy managers should temper expectations a bit.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions)

Even with the return of David Montgomery this week, the rookie runner (Gibbs) should be a featured piece in the run as well as the passing game. Gibbs has 18 receptions for 106 receiving yards in his last three games.

Rachaad White (Buccaneers)

The Bucs running back has been trending upward over the last several weeks with 17 receptions for 181 receiving yards over his last three games. He’ll also have a chance to do some damage on the ground against the Titans run defense that has allowed the 3rd most rushing yards the last two weeks.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 9 FIRE & ICE

November 4th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

FF Week 9: Fire & Ice Report

Through Eight weeks of NFL action there have been plenty of players up and down throughout the season, heading into this Sunday. Fantasy studs like AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill continue to trend in the right direction and while others like Deebo Samuel are struggling to stay on the field. With less than 12 hours until NFL Sunday Week 9 kickoff, this is a short list of some of my notables that are either heating up or cooling down or (on) Fire or Ice (cold).

Fire

The Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (fantasy QB20) has been on a roll lately. Last week Burrow passed for nearly 300 yards, completing a career high 87.5% of his passes going 28 of 32, with three touchdowns. Over his last three games Burrow has averaged 261.7 yards passing, completing 76.3% of his 113 passes, and tossed 8 touchdowns. With a Sunday night matchup at home against the Bills, he's a fantasy lock for Week 9.

The Jets second year running back Breece Hall (fantasy RB15) looks to be firing on all pistons as he rolls into a Week 9 matchup on Monday night with the Chargers. Hall is coming off a solid Week 8 showing in the pass game, bringing in 6 passes for 76 yards and a 50-yard touchdown reception. Through his last three games Hall has been the fantasy RB4 averaging 77.7 yards rushing on 15+ carries per game. He’s also been terrific in the passing game adding 14 receptions for 147 yards receiving and three touchdowns (1 receive, 2 run) during this stretch. Hall is a must-start for Week 9.

Ravens running back Gus Edwards (fantasy RB30) has been hot of late, coming off a spectacular Week 8 performance with three rushing touchdowns. Edwards is averaging 61.7 yards rushing and 35.3 yards receiving over his last three games with most of the damage being fueled by his two most recent games. With a home tilt in Week 9 against a tough Seahawks defense he’s still a solid flex consideration for Week 9.

The rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison (fantasy WR11) has been the guy in Minnesota the past several games in absence of Justin Jefferson. In his past two games he’s been heavily targeted (averaging 9 per) registering 14 receptions for  205 yards and three scores. He has actually scored a touchdown in four straight games averaging 8 targets, 5.8 receptions, 74.2 yards receiving, with 5 receiving touchdowns. He’s a must-start this week against a Falcons secondary that has surrendered 5 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers the past two weeks.

Colts rookie wide receiver Josh Downs (fantasy WR37) has been trending in the right direction the past several weeks. For the past four straight weeks, he has seen no fewer than 6 targets per game. During his last three contests, Downs has caught 17 passes for 218 yards receiving and two touchdowns. After the success he has had in back-to-back games against the Browns and Saints, Downs faces a tough Carolina defense on Sunday, but he belongs in lineups.

The Bills rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid (fantasy TE12) has arrived. Kincaid is coming off consecutive games with at least 7 targets, 5 receptions, and 65 yards receiving. The Bills are one of the best offenses in the NFL and with his teammate Dawson Know on the IR, Kincaid should remain one of the primary weapons of the passing game behind (Stefon) Diggs. With a Sunday night Matchup with the Bengals on the calendar, Vegas has this contest pegged as the highest scoring affair in Week 9, fantasy managers can turn, and his name is Dalton (Kincaid), loose.

The Browns tight end David Njoku (fantasy TE12) has been quietly warming up. Njoku is averaging double-digit fantasy points over his last three games and in his last two, he has seen his target share and productivity increase significantly. With 17 targets in his last two contests Njoku has 9 receptions for 131 yards receiving and a score. The Browns will have quarterback Deshaun Watson back under center on Sunday and a home matchup with the Cardinals make Njoku a serviceable TE-1 this week. The Cardinals are allowing more than 10 fantasy points (ppr format) to TE-1 this season.

Ice

The Texans quarterback CJ Stroud (fantasy QB16) started out the season hot, but he has cooled off quite a bit over the past several weeks. In his past three starts, Stroud is only completing 55.2% of his passes and has thrown only three touchdowns.  He has a home matchup with the Buccaneers this week and although Tampa has struggled lately allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks for the past four weeks, Stroud is a sit this week in seasonal leagues, but remains a consideration in DFS.

The Packers running back Aaron Jones (fantasy RB30) has been on ice since returning from injury in Week 4. After missing Week 5, he returned in Week 7 following the team’s bye, but he’s basically been on a pitch count the past couple of weeks, splitting snaps with AJ Dillon, and has not done much. In his last two games he’s averaging 11 touches for 52.5 yards per game. Until Jones is healthy, he’s best left on your bench.

The Chiefs wide receivers Kadarius Toney (fantasy WR95) & Skyy Moore (fantasy WR88) entered the 23 season with much promise being a part of an offense anchored by quarterback Patrick Mahomes. In their last three games, Toney has 5 catches (8 targets) for 26 yards and a score, while Moore has totaled 5 receptions (10 targets) for 45 yards. Through 8 weeks this season, neither has done much of anything to even warrant a roster spot.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WEEK 4 FF SITS

September 30th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football Week 4

Sit’Ems

My week 4 Sits for Sunday and Monday.

I believe every fantasy football owner greatly looks forward to NFL Sunday. There is so much promise and possibility as the day begins, but of course once the games kick off and the reality of the action starts to set in, it’s not always rainbows and pots of gold. On some Sundays, we experience heavy rains and lots of dark clouds.

RB-Gus Edwards (Ravens)

As I look ahead to this Sunday, these are just some of my thoughts for the week 4 matchups, where if you have a viable replacement option, you might want to look to your bench for help. I never enjoy predicting doom for anyone and certainly don’t hope anyone has a bad day. But if you are facing the Cleveland Browns defense in week 4, a bad day is what you can likely expect.

The Browns defense has been ridiculously good and stingy this season. They are allowing just 52 yards rushing per game with a 2.8 yards per carry average (both 2nd best in the league). In three games the Dawg Pound D has allowed less than 2 first downs rushing per game through the first three weeks of the season.

Last week the Browns defense held the Titans running back Derrick Henry to just 20 yards rushing on 11 carries and that followed a week 2 outing where the defense limited Steelers running back Najee Harris to just 43 yards.

The Ravens offense is going to face all kinds of problems moving the ball on the ground against this stout Browns defense. It’s likely a lot of their success will come from the legs of Lamar Jackson, limiting opportunities for Edwards. Edwards is averaging a little more than 10 carries per game the last two weeks. This is just not enough workload to trust looking ahead to Sunday. Sit Edwards.

RB-Dalvin Cook  (Jets)

The Jets offense in general has been a struggle this season. With the loss of quarterback Aaron Rodgers in week one, Zach Wilson just hasn’t stepped up to the plate. The team was able to salvage a week one win, primarily due to the 4 turnovers committed by the Bills offense. Since then the Jets rushing offense has been anemic. 

In week 2 against the Cowboys, the Jets totaled just 24 yards rushing on 10 carries from the backfield and the following week against the Patriots they didn’t fare much better, gaining 37 yards on 21 carries. With such low output from the running game, Cook’s contributions have reflected the same.

We’ve seen Cook’s workload fall from 13 carries in week one, to 4 in week two and 8 last week. His rushing totals haven’t been any better, 33, 7, and 18. With just 25 carries this season Cook is averaging a meager 2.3 yard per carry. Cook is still competing for touches with running back Breece Hall, but as the former gets healthy, Cooks’ window could be closing.

The Jets offense is bad and this week a Sunday night matchup with the Chiefs doesn’t bring good news. Through three games the Jets offense is averaging 22 run plays per game to 28 pass. On the surface there just doesn’t seem to be enough workload available and with his current trend Cook looks like a bad bet. Sit Cook.

TE-David Njoku (Browns)

The Browns tight end has popped up on the injury report this week and he is listed as questionable, but nonetheless I don’t like this week 4 matchup for Njoku. Even if he suits up, he could be limited, but that might not even matter.

Only the Browns defense has been better versus opposing tight ends this season, than the Ravens D, allowing the fewest fantasy points. For three weeks the Ravens defense has done a great job to shut down the position, allowing 8 receptions for 45 yards. 

Through the Brown’s first three games, Njoku is averaging just 3.3 receptions, 3.6 targets, and 30.6 receiving yards per game. He’s just not seeing enough shares or production in the passing game to be a viable option at the time. With a bad matchup on the docket, keep Njoku on your bench. Sit Njoku.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega