FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Evening Edition
October 25th 2019

Fantasy Football Week 8

Eight weeks into fantasy football and now's the time to make bold moves, smart decisions, and decisive choices to secure your playoff slot or turn your season around. Now that we are just beyond the mid-point, these are a couple of moves I am making this week in my season-long redraft leagues.

“Pick-of-the-litter"

WR-Kenny Stills, Texans; With starting wide receiver Will Fuller (knee) out for a couple of games, Kenny Stills should slide into a starting role. Stills joined the team just before the start of the regular season, and in the short time has already shown a connection with quarterback Deshaun Watson. Injuries have slowed down Stills 2019 campaign, but he’s healthy and should be ready to go to fill in nicely for Fuller. Stills is coming off injury and in his first game back posted a 4-catch, 105 receiving yard effort on 5 targets. With Fuller sidelined, he should see a significant boost in targets and production over the coming weeks.

Dumpster-ville

RB-Duke Johnson, Texans; For fantasy football purposes only, I have dropped running back Duke Johnson (Fantasy RB36). With Carlos Hyde cemented as the team’s primary early down back, Johnson is not seeing enough work to hold onto, let alone insert into a lineup. In PPR scoring (1pt per reception), since week 2 his games are as follows; 3.1, 2.4, 7.8, 6.7, 11.4, and 5.6 (6.2 average). With this kind of production, he’s a low value flex at best, and probably not worth holding on limited roster sizes.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

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November 25th 2017

Saturday Night Edition

My Week 12 DFS Plays

With an exciting slate of 12 games on the board for Sunday, I am more than excited about playing me some DFS. Here are some of the names that will filter their way to my lineups for Week 12;

Duke Johnson Jr; The Browns running back posted a solid line the last time he faced the Bengals, thinking he can duplicate the type of outcome on Sunday.

LeSean McCoy; The Chiefs defense has not been great against the run of late and Shady is still one of the league’s most elusive and exciting running backs.

Tyrod Taylor; This is a full-on contrarian play for sure, but I like the odds with Taylor after being reinserted into the lineup with his matchup against an over-rated Chiefs defense. I am playing him in a stack with McCoy and Jones.

Martavis Bryant; he’s a risky boom or bust play every week, but the absence of JuJu Smith-Schuster favors his chances.

Kareem Hunt; I’d be expecting a big bounce back day after last week’s dud. Hunt has been too good this season to say quiet two consecutive weeks.

Kenny Stills; I’m not expecting quite the same day he had a week ago, but if he can post a modest 6 catches for 90 yards (or better), at his price I’d be more than happy.

Brandin Cooks; Just playing the numbers and the matchups with Cooks here. I am also making my pick based on what we saw last week. Brady and Cooks are starting to get in sync; look out opposing defensive backs.

Ben Roethlisberger; I am definitely feeling a big game from Big Ben this week. Last week’s 299 yards passing and 4 touchdowns was his best game this season, but this Sunday could be better.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 25th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 12 Favorite Plays

It’s a critical weekend in the fantasy world in most season-long formats, with just two weeks left before the start of the fantasy playoffs. This Sunday’s slate of games will carry more weight and go a long way for those teetering on the brink. And with so much riding on Sunday, here are a few of the Not-the-Usual-Suspects to consider for those in need of a plug-and-play;

QB-Joe Flacco; The Ravens signal caller has been off the starting fantasy radar most of the season, turning in just four 200+ yards passing games and just two multiple touchdown performances. He’s been No-Go-Joe most of this season, but Sunday against the Texans Flacco could turn things around. The Texans have been awful against the pass all season long and over the past four weeks they have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including the most passing yards and touchdowns. This will be a great week for Flacco to succeed.

RB-JD McKissic; I like the Seahawks matchup here against the Niners on Sunday and with running back Mike Davis doubtful the backfield remains wide open. McKissic is the team’s pass receiving specialist out of the backfield and in his last two games he’s averaged 10 touches per game and collected 9 receptions. In PPR formats especially, the Seahawks ball carrier will have flex appeal against a Niner’s defense that has allowed the most receiving yards and (tied for) the 8th most receptions to opposing running backs.

RB-Rex Burkhead; This pick is a little outside the box thinking in my opinion, but if you in need and looking the Patriots running back Rex Burkhead could fill the need. Locked in a timeshare with running back Dion Lewis, Burkhead is the more appealing in PPR formats. Burkhead has played a significant number of offensive snaps over the past several weeks and in his last three games he’s total 14 receptions for 116 receiving yards and a score, while adding 19 carries for 67 rushing yards. On Sunday he’ll lineup against a Dolphins defense that has surrendered the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past four weeks.

WR-Jeremy Maclin; With Flacco expected to be highly successful this week against a struggling Texans secondary, Maclin figures to be one of the benefactors. Maclin is easily the team’s leading wideout in an otherwise less than impressive offense, leading in catches (31), yards (343), and tied for team lead in touchdowns (3). The good news, Maclin’s number is regularly called; he has 14 receptions on 19 targets in his last three games. Maclin is not looking at a monster game, but he could find paydirt and offer some fantasy help in week 12.

WR-Kenny Stills; the Dolphins wide receiver erupted last week for a huge game (7 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown) with quarterback Matt Moore under center. With starter Jay Cutler ruled out, Moore will get the nod and Stills is back in play in week 12. The Phins take on the Patriots who have allowed the most receptions and 9th most receiving yards to opposing receivers the past two weeks.

TE-Jared Cook; In what has been a down year for the Offense, the Raiders tight end Jared Cook has been a nice addition to the passing game. He is leading the team with 535 yards receiving through 10 games, but has only scored once. That all could change this Sunday matched up against a struggling Denver secondary. In their first matchup the Broncos defense held Cook in check with just 3 catches for 46 yards, but in the team’s past four games they have allowed the most receiving yards (348) and the most touchdowns (4) to opposing tight ends.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 26th 2017

Thursday Evening Edition

Thursday’s Twitter Takes

It's never just about the matchup, but it's always about the game. Maybe tonight's contest isn't a battle between two Titans, but it can still offer a lot of excitement, thrills, and surprises; at least we can hope for it. It's Thursday night, what else are you going to do? Just sit back, enjoy the NFL action and hope we didn't jsut waste three hours of our lives.

"Tonight's matchup could be the snoozefest of the season, both offenses rank among worst; BAL-31, Mia-32" by @FantsySprtsHome

Then again, we thought that was the case when the Rams and Niners played a few weeks back. While it may have a lot of tendencies leaning toward a lot scoring affair, there are plenty of storylines to suggest we could be in for a few surprises.

"Ravens and Flacco could be in for long night against Phins D (ranked 10th total yards)" by @ FantsySprtsHome

Dolphins have been playing well this season, but the Ravens are at home and this could be just the type of setting to kickstart Flacco and company. But I’m not holding my breath.

"With Matt Moore under center, Stills could be a favorite play tonight. He's coming off a big game last Sunday" by @FantsySprtsHome

Don’t be surprised to see a rejuvenated and animated Moore tonight. He’s got a great opportunity to seize control of the starting gig in Miami, nothing that a big game couldn’t help cement maybe.

"Phins D pretty good, but trouble covering the backs could open up play for both Buck Allen tonight." by @FantsySprtsHome

I expect Buck to be very busy in the short passing game, as well as tight end Ben Watson. Flacco may not throw for a ton, but he could complete a lot of passes. Get out your PPR calculator.

"Jay Ajayi may be the only strong & must-play tonight; Ravens D last in the league allowing 145-yds/gm!" by @FantsySprtsHome

The Ravens D has just struggled awful this season against the run and this would be the type of game the Dolphins would need out of Ajayi, lots of carries and lots of yards; could open some play-action and allow Moore to take a few shots downfield.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 23rd 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Sunday’s Heroes

(Week 7)

Not the Usual Suspects

Nothing makes fantasy owners happiest than seeing their studs do what they do on Sunday, then there's the bench guys that blow out; whole nother story. These guys can drive an owner crazy having the biggest game on your bench when they count for nothing. These are the Fantasy Studs from Sunday week 7 who are not your usual suspects;

QB-Josh McCown; the Jets quarterback should have been on most fantasy radars heading into week 7, coming off a big week 6 performance against New England. If you were watching the waiver wire last week, you may have been able to take advantage of his three touchdown game on Sunday against the Dolphins.

RB-Aaron Jones; the Packers running back has likely worked his way into not only a starting gig, but perhaps a feature role. On Sunday Jones dominated the touches in the backfield with 20 touches, totaling 138 yards and a touchdown; Going forward expect Jones to hold serve in the backfield for now.

RB-TJ Yeldon; with starter Leonard Fournette sidelined, running back TJ Yeldon found some opportunity on Sunday and took advantage. Yeldon rushed for 122 yards on 9 carries and added 2 catches for another 15 yards. The Jaguars are on bye next week, when they return so should Fournette and Yeldon will return to his regular backup role.

RB-Latavius Murray; the Vikings former pro bowl running back (when he was in Oakland) finally showed off some of that skill he possessed when he wore Silver & Black. On Sunday against the Ravens Murray broke loose for 113 yards and a touchdown. He'll be on fantasy radars this week.

WR-Kenny Stills; with wide receiver Devante Parker inactive, next man up for the Dolphins is Kenny Stills. Flying under most radars on Sunday, Stills just put up the following stat line, 6/85/2. Stills was targeted 9 times, the most he's seen since week 2. With a short week and quarterback Matt Moore likely to start, if Parker is not available, Stills may again on the fantasy radar.

WR-Ted Ginn Jr; the Saints speedy receiver had a very good game against the Packers. Ginn Jr hauled in 7 passes on 7 targets for 141 yards. It was a season high in targets for Ginn and by far his most productive day. He's been too much hot and cold to trust just yet, but get him on your radar, with Brees more days like this could be coming.

TE-OJ Howard; the Buccaneers tight end broke out on Sunday catching 6 balls for 98 yards and two scores. This was by far his best game fantasy-wise, but i was only the second time he posted more than 3 fantasy points, so let's not jump on the band wagon just yet. He's still a wait and see option especially with a healthy Cameron Brate on the field.

TE-Evan Engram; the Giants rookie tight end continues to blossom with another nice Sunday; 6/60/1. As long as there is no OBJ and the receiving corp continues to be in flux, Engram will see plenty of opportunity going forward and be a solid TE1.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 31st 2016
Saturday Afternoon Edition

Last Chance to Play in 16

This being the final weekend of the NFL regular season and with most season long redraft leagues having concluded last weekend, this is the final chance to play fantasy football in 2016.

With season long leagues over, what’s left? If your league is complete, don’t forget DFS has weekly games, so there’s still plenty of fantasy left. And don’t forget, the NFL Playoff Challenge, just more fantasy fun.

For some Week 17 fantasy magic where do owners look? Well let’s start with the matchups that will offer fantasy appeal; Giant-Redskins, Saints-Falcons, and Packers-Lions all have much at stake, so starters will be playing til the end in these contests. A couple of other interesting matchups that warrant some appeal; Patriots-Dolphins and Broncos-Raiders.

These matchups have the appeal of knowing your starters will play and when looking them over, the standouts start with the quarterbacks. This week DFS players have to love the Packers Aaron Rodgers ($8,800 salary), since week 6 in his last 10 starts he is averaging 25.31, scoring no fewer than 21.24 fantasy points in 8 of those 10. In his week 3 matchup this season versus the Lions, Rodgers tossed 4 touchdowns and could be looking at a repeat play this Sunday.

In the backfield, there are two ball carriers that DFS owner should love, the Cardinals “Mr. Everything” running back David Johnson ($9,300 salary), and the Bills LeSean McCoy ($9,100). 

Johnson simply does everything and over his past seven starts he’s tallied better than 24 fantasy points in six of those contests. Johnson sees a steady diet of carries as well as targets making him a fantasy workhorse and solid week 17 bet.

Shady (McCoy) is another running back that has been sizzling of late. In has past five games, Shady has topped 19 fantasy points totaling more than 100 yards (rushing & receivng) in each while registering 6 touchdowns, McCoy could be a lock for another big Sunday.

With a lot of stock going to the backfield, owners will have to go frugal out wide, fortunately there are options available. With Rodgers in play, wide receiver Jordy Nelson ($8,200 salary) has to be a heavy favorite to double-down. Nelson has looked great over the past four weeks scoring no fewer than 15 fantasy points while registering 30 receptions and five touchdowns.

My risky plays for Sunday would include the Lions wide receivers Golden Tate and the Dolphins Kenny Stills. Both plays should see plenty of opportunities on Sunday; Tate is averaging 10 targets per game in his last four starts and Stills is averaging better than six targets in his last six games, including 8 targets last week. There’s some risk with these two, but plenty of upside to score as well.

The Saints tight end Coby Fleener has my eye this week with a nice matchup against a Falcons defense that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the past four weeks. Fleener turned in one of his best performances this season back in his first matchup in week 3 against the Falcons. I like his chances on Sunday.

This is the makeup for one of my DFS week 17 lineups.

That’s My Take

~David G. Orrtega