FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Edition

August 17th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

2011 in Rewind

The Busts, Duds, and Disappointments

Staying with the “looking back at 2011” theme, let’s talk about a few names from last year that drove us nuts, because of under-performing, pulling the disappearing act, or just not showing up; and let me say having played in quite a few leagues last season the list is long.

With the 2012 season just about to start, a new fantasy season upon us, and so much to be excited about, we won’t delve too deeply into this touchy subject. As is the case every year, there are going to be players that will break your heart and each year fantasy owners learn that tough lesson the hard way.

These are just a few of those players.

The Heartbreakers

Last season there were several, just ask all of the (RB) Darren McFadden, (RB) Jamaal Charles, and (WR) Andre Johnson owners. These were some of the biggest fantasy studs in the game last year and with their seasons cut short because of injury fantasy owners were left with nothing but heartache. There is tremendous talent with this list, but plenty of risk if you choose to go for broke and draft them early. Johnson and Charles might be safer picks, but McFadden is likely the trickier play. He has a history, albeit short history of being a homerun hitter on the field or swing and a miss play in fantasy. If you put all your eggs in his basket, be prepared with plenty of Kleenex (just in case).

The Chargers have a running back that might also fit this profile; Ryan Mathews. This kid has shown plenty of flash, enough to get fantasy homers and geeks all fired up, but his lack of health has made him a questionable early fantasy draft selection. He’s another stud that could leave you in tears if you put too much value here.

The Disappointments

For all the talk about “it’s their time” and “too much talent” fantasy owners of (QB) Michael Vick, (WR) DeSean Jackson, and (RB) Shonn Greene paid another heavy price if they bought into the early season hype last year. With Vick, you are just treading troubled water with a fantasy quarterback that exposes himself to so much risk when he runs the ball. As long as he can avoid taking hits, he’ll pay off big, but when he doesn’t fantasy owners are left to pick up the tab.

And so goes Vick, goes DeSean Jackson, so long as his head is on straight and he’s in the game. Jackson has become one of today’s Diva receivers, so you just don’t know what you will get. If he’s on, he can bring great reward, but when he’s has six games with 3 or fewer receptions and all less than 50 yards receiving with NO touchdowns, for a number one receiver that spells disappointment Big-Time.

Quietly another disappointing play in 2011 was the Ravens physical wideout, Anquan Boldin who finished outside the top 30 in both yards receiving and receptions. His three touchdowns last season were also his worst showing since his second year (2004) in the league when he registered just one in 10 games. The Ravens play a more conservative run-first style offense and with the emergence of deep threat receiver Torrey Smith, Boldin could continue to see his production diminish.

For all the flare he showed jumping over a defender to score a touchdown in his rookie campaign and looking like the incumbent in the Buccaneers backfield, running back LeGarrette Blount fell far from expectation in his sophomore season. The Tampa Bay runner finished with fewer carries, fewer yards, and one less touchdown in 2011 after starting in 14 games, 7 more than his rookie season. Unfortunately there wasn’t enough hype to carry this back into the top twenty in 2011, as he finished 24^th in rushing and just five scores; not what owners had in mind.

The Busts

It’s never fun kicking a man when he’s down, so rather than kicking many, we’ll just point out the obvious; Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb. Before the 2011 season the Cards inked Kolb to a hefty contract with plenty of green, but saw little return in their investment. Fantasy owners were equally (emotionally) hurt with the former Houston Cougar’s lackluster play in 2011 (ranked 28^th in passing yards. Kolb finished last season just playing in nine games (started 8), throwing just nine touchdowns with eight picks and 1,955 yards. I think owners were looking for a little more from someone who gets to throw to (WR) Larry Fitzgerald every week.

Let this be a warning for the fantasy owners eye-balling quarterback Matt Flynn in Seattle.

There were probably more names that were a whole lot closer to many fantasy owners hearts from a year ago, but I think we have covered the point sufficiently; caveat your emptor. If you are buying into the hype, beware; because every year we are going to have plenty of Busts, Duds, and Disappointments.

By David Ortega

FSH: MONDAY MORNING HUDDLE

December 13th, 2010, Monday

Monday Morning Huddle
(Evening Edition)

Monday mornings at the watercooler always offer a football fan time to reflect and discuss with their colleagues and other fellow fans the events of the past weekend and an indepth look back at the full slate of NFL games just played. No one can dissect and evaluate NFL Sunday, better than the fan. Their loyalty, undying devotion, and willingness to always support their team helps the avid football fan to maintain an less than objective and unbiased opinion about any football related subject that concerns their team.

….And if you think they are bad, try listening to a fantasy football owner, it’s easy to see where their loyalty lies. There is only one “I” on my fantasy football team; me.

Top Stories

The Loss of Aaron Rogers Could Be Huge.
On Sunday the Packer’s not only lost their game to the Detroit Lions, but during the contest they lost their starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Packer’s signal caller was took a hard hit on a scramble and then suffered another jolting hit on a sack the following play, Rodgers left the game with an apparent concussion, his second of the season.

While the injury itself did not look too severe, this being the second time Rodgers was knocked out of a game this season has to raise some concerns for the organization which now must wait for Rodgers to undergo some standard protocol testing and evaluation before he can be medically cleared to return to action.

If you are the Packers, there has to be much to be concerned about with the potential loss of Rodgers. On Sunday the team was unable to muster any real scoring threats and managed just one field goal for the day without Rodgers. This is not good news for a Packer’s team that still trails the Chicago Bears in the NFC North division race. It does not get any better for fantasy owners counting on Rodgers or any one of his receiving threats (Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and James Jones) to help them move deeper into the fantasy playoffs.

In the absence of Rodgers on Sunday, none of the Packers’ receivers were very productive and now look to be high risk plays without their starter. It also goes without saying if you own Rodgers, Matt Flynn may not exactly look like the best answer as a possible replacement; better check the wire and look elsewhere.

Just my take.

Even Tim Tebow Can’t Help Studesville and The Broncos.
The good news for fantasy owners, it sounds like the Bronco’s interim head coach Eric Studesvilles has no intention of making a quarterback change; he’ll stick with Orton. After watching the Broncos starter Kyle Orton play the last couple of weeks that may not necessarily be the best news, but it may be the only alternative for now.

Orton and the Broncos offense have slumped the past couple of weeks scoring just 19 points in their past two games. Orton has only completed 28 of his last 69 passes and this past Sunday he added three picks. As a result of his poor play, not only have the Broncos been losing, but fantasy favorite wide receiver Brandon Lloyd has struggled with fewer chances and a few drops.

Fantasy owners can hope the two will very soon snap out of this slump, but any thoughts connected to ushering in the so-called second coming from Florida as the answer is nothing less than reaching for the stars. A change now would likely be more detrimental to the offense and it would likely have an unfavorable affect on some of the Bronco’s key offensive skill players; Lloyd, Eddie Royal, and Knowshon Moreno.

Tim Tebow may have been the Bronco’s 1st round pick, but he has not seen much action this season playing back-up behind Orton. Inserting him at this point of the season might be more like serving him to the wolves. There’s a huge learning curve going from the collegiate level to the NFL, so to expect anyone (including Tebow) to step on the field and have instant success is far-fetched.

For some folks it may makes sense to make the switch to Tebow thinking he is the future, but that is probably something best figured out this coming off season. At this point for an interim coach trying to make an impression to either keep this job or be considered for one in the future, the safe move may be sticking with Orton for the time being; for fantasy owners hopeful of something more from the Denver offense it’s probably the only move.

Just my thoughts.

Fantasy Spotlight

There were a lot of fantastic performances over this past weekend; Tom Brady passing for 369 yards in a blizzard, Jason Witten’s two touchdowns catches on Sunday night, and DeSean Jackson’s 210 yards receiving on four grabs, but the one that stands out above the rest was the performance of the Raiders running back Darren McFadden.

Entering Sunday’s matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars McFadden star was beginning to shine bright again after seeming to have dimmed a bit in recent weeks. In weeks 11 and 12 McFadden hit a dry spell not scoring once or totaling more than 71yards of offense in each of the two games, but in week 13 the spark returned.

The timing could not be better with most fantasy leagues heading into their post season action starting in week 14. Even if fantasy owners were starting to get discouraged with McFadden, his effort of 127 yards of offense against the Chargers had to be enough to turn the light green and roll with him into your league playoffs.

For the fantasy owner the payoff could not have been any bigger regardless what format you play. McFadden was a one man wrecking crew and his performance undoubtedly won several fantasy league matchups. McFadden carried the ball just 15 times, but managed to ramble his way to 115 yards on the ground, scoring twice on runs of 51 yards and 36 yards. McFadden also contributed to the Raiders passing attack, grabbing three balls for a total of 86 receiving yards, including a 68 yard grab and score. For the afternoon “Run DMC” totaled 209 yards of offense and scored three times.

He’s our Fantasy Spotlight Player of the Week!

Diamonds in the Rough

RB-Ryan Torain

The Redskins saw the return of running back Ryan Torian to their starting lineup on Sunday and while his return was successful on a personal level, it was not enough to return Washington to the victory column. Torain had been sidelined for the past five weeks with a hamstring injury and while it had been speculated he could start, no one was expecting a return quite like this.

Not only did Torain play, but he started the game and rushed for 121 yards in the first quarter of Sunday’s contest with the Bucs. Torain would finish the day with 24 carries and 172 yards on the ground. He also added a pair of grabs for 10 yards. Torain has been the Redskins most effective runner this season. His 100-yard effort was his third of the season and his 24 carries were his season high. Before the start of the 2010 campaign, very few even knew who he was; a carry-over from the Denver camp.

Redskin’s head coach Mike Shanahan had drafted Torain when both were in Denver. In 2008 Torain was projected to be the Bronco’s starter at some point during the season; that opportunity came in week 10, but a knee injury would end his season and his career in Denver. Torain would miss the entire 2009 season, but in 2010 with the arrival of Shanahan to Washington the former 5th round pick out of Arizona State would get a second chance.

This season the unpolished diamond (Torain) was likely a popular waiver wire acquisition for most, but looking at the 2011 fantasy season he’s going to be ranked much higher. His 172 yards has certainly got the attention of fantasy owners, so with three games left against the Cowboys (ranked 17th against the run), Jaguars (18th), and the Giants (7th). How this diamond in the rough finishes this season will certainly determine how great his value is going into fantasy drafts next season.

WR-Deon Butler

The Seahawks not only lost to the Niners on Sunday, but they also lost a gem of a young receiver in 2nd year wide out Deon Butler. The former Penn State Nittany Lion suffered a broken leg Sunday ending his season. On Monday Butler was placed on the Injured Reserve.

Butler is one of the team’s up and coming young receivers and part of their youth movement; earlier in this season the team released wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh and traded wide receiver Deion Branch. Butler had not been flashing any big numbers this season, but he did enjoy his best outing of the season against the Niners on Sunday. His five catches and 68 yards receiving were both season highs and his touchdown was his fourth of the season.

This diamond was starting to show a little shine before the abrupt halt to his 2010 season. Before the injury Butler had started 8 games for the Seahawks this season and his 36 receptions were second on the team. His four touchdowns are also tied for most on the club.

Butler is not going to crack any top 20 rankings lists for the 2011 fantasy season, but with a lot of promise going into next season this diamond in the rough will be a fantasy sleeper to watch.