FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WAIVER WIRE

September 19th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

The Waiver Wire

With two full weeks in the books, it’s time again to take a look at those rosters and check out the Waiver wire. With several significant injuries this past week and your championship hopes on the verge of being derailed, it might be time to work the wire and make the magic happen.

Week 3 Waiver wire options;

RB-Matt Breida (Giants) - With Saquon going down in week 2 and expected (although not ruled out yet) to miss Thursday night, running back Matt Breida looks to be the next man up. Breida is a career 4.8 yards per carry guy should fill the role fine in the short term. He may not be featured like Saquon, but he could be a low-end RB2/Flex option for the time being. Barkley isn’t expected to be out too long, so go get Breida if you have the need.

RB-Jerome Ford (Browns) - Following the very unfortunate season ending injury to Nick Chubb, Ford stepped in and did more than a commendable job. Ford carried the ball 16 times on Monday night for 106 yards and added 3 catches for another 25 yards. He also added a receiving touchdown finishing the week as RB6 (ppr). Odds are he won’t finish that high by season end, but he certainly looks like a guy he could be a borderline RB1/RB2.

RB-Jaylen Warren (Steelers) - This pickup, if Warren is available in your league, harbors on the fact that running back Najee Harris has just been ineffective the first two weeks of the season (74 rushing yards in two games). As Harris continues to lumber, Warren will continue to see his workload increase (10 touches on Monday night).

WR-DeVante Parker (Patriots) - Right now Parker is a fix for the flex spot in deeper leagues, but he should be owned. He has the talent to be a solid WR2 if he can stay healthy (11 games missed the past two seasons). Parker was targeted 8 times on Sunday night and pulled in six passes for 57 yards.

WR-Tutu Atwell (Rams) - With all the talk deservedly surrounding Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua, quietly Atwell has made a case himself to be owned in fantasy leagues. After a week one stat line of 6 receptions for 119 yards, he followed that up with 7 catches for 77 yards this past Sunday. Atwell has been targeted 17 times over the first two weeks of the season. With that kind of volume he remains in the flex mix every week.

TE-Zach Ertz (Cardinals) - The fantasy tight end position can look like a wasteland at times, when you are checking weekly results. It becomes a tough spot to find production. But everyone knows before you have production, you must have that volume of opportunity. Over the past two weeks Ertz has been targeted 18 times. He’s also on the field plenty (72.4% snap share) for those opportunities. If you are streaming tight ends, it’s time to grab Ertz (11 receptions for 77 yards in 2023 - currently fantasy TE9.

A few more notables to consider and at the very least should be on your bench, if not already owned include, (WR) Josh Reynolds, (WR) Tank Dell, (WR) Jayden Reed, (RB) Zack Moss, (WR) Marvin Mims Jr, and (RB) Tony Jones Jr. These players could become steady contributors down the stretch. 

Others that could be in the cards down the road to provide some depth relief for the coming bye weeks and are worth watching now include (RB) Damien Harris, (RB) Roschon Johnson, and (WR) Chase Claypool.

Check your leagues for availability and good luck in week 3.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 6th, 2023

Wednesday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Outlook: Opportunity (RBs)

We are beyond the fantasy draft now for most (there are still some late drafters on the clock), so it’s time to start talking about the upcoming season and time to start looking at probabilities, tendencies, and trends. It’s time to look at the numbers.

Top 10 in 2022

Total Touches (carries + catches)

1. Josh Jacobs / 340 + 53 = 393

2. Derrick Henry / 349 + 33 = 382

3. Saquon Barkley / 295 + 57 = 353

4. Christian McCaffrey / 244 + 85 = 329

5. Nick Chubb / 302 + 27 = 329

6. Najee Harris / 272 + 41 = 313

7. Austin Ekeler / 204 + 107 = 311

8. Dalvin Cook / 264 + 39 = 303

9. Alvin Kamara / 223 + 57 = 280

10. Rhamondre Stevenson / 210 + 69 = 279

Because of his heavy usage in the passing game, the Chargers running back Austin Ekeler checks in at number 7. It’s easy to see why he’s being drafted early in the 1st round of most drafts, especially in PPR formats.

Just like Ekeler, McCaffrey’s contributions in the pass game elevate his usage to top 5 and make him a high value target in fantasy drafts. His ADP has him positioned as the Number one fantasy runner in 2023 and for good reason – No.2 fantasy running back right behind Ekeler.

This is just a look at the numbers heading into the 2023 NFL season. Good luck Ballers.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 31st, 2023

Thursday Late-Evening Edition

My Top 10 Fantasy Football 

RB Rankings for 2023

With the signal-callers out of the way, it’s time to look at the workhorses in the backfield. Here are my Top-10 for the start of the 2023 season.

The Top-10

1. Christian McCaffrey

2. Austin Ekeler

3. Nick Chubb

4. Saquon Barkley

5. Bijan Robinson

6. Tony Pollard

7. Derrick Henry

8. Josh Jacobs

9. Rhamondre Stevenson

10. Najee Harris

With running back Kareem Hunt no longer in Cleveland, this paves the way for running back Nick Chubb to improve upon his No.7 fantasy scoring (points-per-game) finish in 2022. Last season the Browns running back posted 1,525 yards rushing (career high) and 12 rushing touchdowns (tying-career high). Chubb will be running behind one of the best O-lines in the game this season and at the youthful age of 27, he’s primed for a big year.

The Giants running back Saquon Barkley is coming off a bounce back year in 2022 (finished as the No.5 fantasy running back) after his disappointing 2021 season (finished as No.29), minimum of 10 games played. Last season Barkley set a career high with 1,312 yards rushing while posting 10 rushing scores (2nd most in his career). More than a full season removed from his ACL tear that cut his 2021 season, Barkley is a Top-10 fantasy running back heading into the 2023 season with Top-5 tendencies.

The Steelers running back Najee Harris rounds out the Top-10, coming in at number 10. Harris was disappointing in 2022 for fantasy owners finishing as the No.19 fantasy scoring running back (minimum 10 games). Harris took a step back in 2022, rushing for over 160 yards less than the previous season and catching 33 fewer balls. It’s no secret Harris played with an injury last season which could have played a big role in his regression. The Steelers offense looks a bit different this preseason (improved) and could be set up to take some big steps forward when the regular season starts. Now healthy, Harris figures to again lead the ground attack and should benefit greatly.

The Next 10.

11. Breece Hall

12. Travis Etienne Jr.

13. Aaron Jones

14. Joe Mixon

15. Dameon Pierce

16. Jahmyr Gibbs

17. Kenneth Walker

18. Alexander Matison

19. JK Dobbins

20. Alvin Kamara

The Texans running back Dameon Pierce slots in at number 15 in my rankings. He’s coming off a shortened 2022 season where he finished as the No.20 fantasy scoring running back. Pierce totaled over 1,000 yards with 5 touchdowns in his rookie campaign. Pierce has the talent and ability to improve upon last season’s numbers and if he plays a larger role in the offense than originally thought, he’s got a chance at finishing as a borderline RB1/RB2.

Notably missing is running back Jonathan Taylor. In a 12-Team format, I am not willing to risk the draft capital with an early round pick. I’d rather sit on him and get him as my third RB or pass altogether.

Another notable back absent from my Top-20 is Miles Sanders, just missing the cut. Last season he finished as the RB22 in fantasy scoring, so I am pretty comfortable where I have him. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Night Edition
November 23rd 2019

Week 12: Quick Take

RB-Nick Chubb, Browns
Over his past five games, Browns running back Nick Chubb has had at least 20 carries, averaging nearly 24 touches per game. The Browns ball carrier has seen a minimum of 21 touches and eclipsed 100 yards rushing in three of the five contests. His per game average over this span is 105.1 yards rushing (526 total rushing yards) with two rushing scores. Chubb has also been active in the passing game with 12 receptions for 55 receiving yards on 17 targets. This week Chubb faces a Dolphins defense that allows 148.3 yards rushing per game (31st in the league), so he’ll have a great chance to post solid numbers.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Night Edition
November 23rd 2019

Week 12: Armed and Dangerous

As I take a look at the Week 12 matchups for Sunday, there are a couple of quarterbacks that I like the matchup, their current trend, and potential outcome. So let’s start with the ole, West coast team traveling back east to play the early game…

Sam Darnold vs. Raiders
This is just a gut feeling based on the recent play of Darnold and the Jets offense. Darnold slots in as the #25 Fantasy QB through 11 weeks, but he has scored over 21 fantasy points in each of his last two starts, throwing for 525 passing yards, 6 touchdowns (5 pass, 1 rush), and 63.3 passing completion. Darnold has been playing well and I’m counting on a little history here with the Raiders having to travel east and play early. One thing to point out, as good as the Raiders defense has looked the past couple of weeks; their two opposing quarterbacks, Bengals rookie Ryan Finley and the Chargers turnover machine Philip Rivers (7 interceptions in his last two starts).

Matt Ryan vs Buccaneers
Whenever you get Matty-Ice at home, you have to like the prospects. Add that this week the Falcons will host the Bucs and Ryan because an instant start’em. Ryan has yet to face the Bucs this season, but in his two starts last season, he averaged nearly 28 fantasy points per game. The Bucs defense has been awful against the pass this season, allowing 290.9 yards passing (31st) and 25 touchdowns (31st). Ryan’s outlook on Sunday is pretty good.

Baker Mayfield vs Dolphins
As of late the Phins have been a tough out for teams, but this has to be the week Mayfield and company on offense breakout, right? Mayfield comes in as the #22 Fantasy quarterback and he’ll face the 20th ranked pass defense that has allowed 23 passing touchdowns (29th) and 42 pass plays of 20+ yards (28th). The Phins have only recorded 13 sacks in 11 games (tied for fewest in the league). With weapons like OBJ, Landry, Chubb, and Hunt, give Mayfield time and the combination should result in big plays and a lot of fantasy points. We hope.

A couple of risky plays that make me nervous, starts with the big matchup in Foxboro….

Tom Brady vs Cowboys
And while the Patriots have been very good on defense this season, I am not expecting a shutout tomorrow against the Cowboys. The Boys have too many weapons and will manage at least a couple of scores. Brady and the Patriots offense have been out of sync the past couple of weeks and that makes me nervous. Belichick is so creative on the defensive end, I can see the defense accounting for a score or two, and not needing a lot from Brady. Tom Brady is currently the #11 Fantasy QB through 11 weeks, but he has just one passing touchdown in his last two games and has not passed for more than 300 yards in his last four starts. 

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Evening Edition

September 7th, 2019

Week One: Fantasy Five

This is my first Fantasy Five entry for the season; these are my five predictions for Week One. There are obvious players you drafted you will be starting regardless of the matchup, so these are bubble players that may or may not be in your line-up on Sunday! Here are my Stud, Dud, Boom, Bust, and Sleeper for tomorrow.

Stud - WR, Mike Williams

There’s not a large sample size to evaluate here, so this is more of a gut call for me. Williams is in his third season now and ready for a breakout. The Chargers will meet the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, but this is a home matchup, so I like the homedawgs to have success on offense tomorrow. The Colts were the best last season against opposing receivers allowing the fewest fantasy points, so why do I like Williams. Last season in his last four games, Williams saw at least six targets in three of his last four games. With the Colts defense keying on the other Chargers receiver Keenan Allen (WR11 according to FFC), and with his 6’4” frame I like Williams to find the end-zone on Sunday. He’ll finish much better than his WR26, ADP 61.8 (according to FFC).

Dud - QB, Matt Ryan

The Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was coming off drafts boards with an ADP of 68.2 (FFC), good enough for the QB5 spot. That high in drafts, he’s a QB1 in all redraft leagues, but fantasy owners will need to keep their expectations in check. Ryan and the Falcons open on the road and face the Minnesota Vikings, the league’s 3rd ranked pass defense (allowing fewer than 200 yards passing per game) from a year ago. The Vikings also allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. While many project a big year for Matty-Ice, he may not get off to the high-flying start many will be hoping for. With the weapons Ryan has, I am predicting a decent outing, but his numbers may fall outside the top 12 for the week.

Boom - RB, Kerryon Johnson

The Lions are set to meet the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday and running back Kerryon Johnson is set to have a huge Sunday. The Cardinals defense was bad last season against opposing running backs allowing the most fantasy points, over 150 yards on the ground, and 20 rushing touchdowns (to running backs); all led the league in 2018. Johnson should some flashes last season when healthy and given the chance. Coming off fantasy drafts boards as the RB14, I think he’s a shoo-in to be a Top-10 on Sunday. He’s healthy and primed to be a workhorse in the Lions backfield this season; at least in Week one he should take full advantage of the opportunity.

Bust - TE, David Njoku

This is hardly a news breaker, but the Browns tight end is going to be lower in the pecking order when it comes to Targets, likely behind OBJ (Odell Beckham Jr), Jarvis Landry, and (maybe even) Nick Chubb. He’s a talented pass catcher with a lot of skills, but he’ll have a difficult matchup this week against the Titans defense that allowed the 5th fewest points to opposing tight ends in 2018. Njoku finished the 2018 season as the TE9, the same spot he’s being drafted in fantasy leagues at ADP 81.1 (FFC). In 2018, in his final 8 games, Njoku had just two games with more than 5 targets, and his 7 targets in Week 17 were the most he saw during that stretch. With the arrival of OBJ, the target shares he enjoyed last season may not be available. Njoku may give owners fantasy TE9 numbers over the course of the season, but at times it could be feast or famine; Week one looks like a potential famine.

Sleeper - QB, Kirk Cousins

Cousins and the Vikings open up at home and with the return of a healthy running back Dalvin Cook, the offense looks primed for 2019. Cousins has been a steady fantasy QB1, over the past several seasons and with a full complement of weapons this Sunday against the Falcons, I like his prospects for a big game. The Falcons defense allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season along with 33 passing touchdowns, 4th most allowed in the league. The Falcons are healthy this season and should be improved, but Cousins was the QB18 in fantasy drafts at ADP 130.8 (FFC); he looks like a lock to finish significantly higher this week than QB18.

Week One: Injury Notes

Notable

• TE Jordan Reed (concussion) is out, fade all Redskins TEs
• WR Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday, check status.
• WR Robby Anderson (calf) is questionable for Week 1, look at other options.
• WR Alshon Jeffery (biceps) expected to play Sunday, he’s a safe flex or WR3.
• WR Marquise Lee (knee) removed from injury report, a possible week one sleeper.
• WR Antonio Brown lands in New England; he’s out for Week 1

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Night Edition

August 23rd, 2019

Bad Boys Running Wild

The Ones!

With the peak of the Fantasy draft season upon us (a lot of fantasy drafts expected this weekend and next), it’s time to tighten up your rankings and close in on those fantasy picks that are going to bring home the hardware.

Out of the gate, this of course is not headline news, the top pick for me is a no-brainer; Saquan Barkley (MR#RB1). Last season the Giants runner totaled 352 touches (261 carries, 91 receptions), playing in all 16 games of his rookie campaign. There is no reason to think he won’t see similar numbers once again and with his nose for the big play, he’s a solid first pick.

Running backs Christian McCaffrey (MR#RB2) and Alvin Kamara (MR#RB3) offer similar upside, but both are not quite the workhorse as is Barkley.

It’s no secret in Cleveland, running back Nick Chubb (MR#RB5)is expected to be the man to open the season. He has a great opportunity to be a fantasy star and with the upgraded passing game, he should be. Last season Chubb finished 10th in NFL rushing and just missed 1,000 yard by four.

It may be a surprise to see Le’Veon Bell (MR#RB7) as high as I have him, but unlike many other Fantasy experts, I believe Bell will be fine in New york. You don’t pay top dollars for a high-performance car to park it in the garage. I happen to believe Bell is going to see a large volume of work and will be highly productive.

I have the Lions star runner Kerryon Johnson (MR#RB10) in my top 10, because I am drinking the Kool-aid. His rookie season was cut short due to injury (knee), but Johnson is healthy in 2019 and expected to open the season as the Lions lead-back. KJ is a versatile back (32 receptions in 2018) and from weeks 7 to week 11, he averaged 17.4 touches per game. He has the potential for a heavier workload and finishing inside the Fantasy Top 10 this season.

1.Saquon Barkley

2.C. McCaffrey

3.Alvin Kamara

4.David Johnson

5.Nick Chubb

6.Joe Mixon

7.LeVeon Bell

8.Dalvin Cook

9.Todd Gurley

10.Kerryon Johnson

11.Damien Williams

12.Devonta Freeman

The Next 12

Just a couple of quick notables for the second 12 of my rankings list; I am believing the hype surrounding Raiders rookie running back Josh Jacobs (MR#RB14). He could be a 20-touch per game back in Head Coach John Gruden’s offense.

I dropped Ezekiel Elliot (MR#RB15) outside my top 12, due to his holdout and the risk he could miss some games. Should he get signed, he catapults up the charts to number 5. Drafting him as a RB1 or RB2 is basically based on how confident you are he’ll be back in Dallas and when.

I have Leonard Fournette (MR#RB17) a little low at 17, but if he stays healthy this season he could easily finish in the top 10. Last season Fournette played in 8 games, finishing as the No.40 RB in fantasy PPR scoring, as compared to his rookie season where he played in 13 games and finished 9th.

Although he may be considered a little undersized, Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay (MR#RB24) proved he is more than capable in an NFL backfield. The former Buffalo out of the University of Colorado finished his rookie campaign as the 13th RB in fantasy PPR scoring. He makes my board as a low-end RB2, but I honestly feel he could be a little low.

13.James Conner

14.Josh Jacobs

15.Ezekiel Elliott

16.Aaron Jones

17.L. Fournette

18.Marlon Mack

19.Melvin Gordon

20.Derrick Henry

21.Mark Ingram

22.Tevin Coleman

23.Chris Carson

24.Phillip Lindsay

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega