September 23rd 2017
Saturday Afternoon Edition
My Week 3 Four Horsemen + a Flex
(Bold Predictions)
So a quick look back at Week 2; we didn’t do too bad. I’m never going to jump through hoops or bury my head in the sand, because I know this is not an exact science. But I will admit, it always feels good to get some call right; last week quarterback Jameis Winston wasn’t brilliant, but he didn’t hurt your lineup either.
You’ll notice I always favor my scoring takes and breakdown toward PPR (love this format), so on that note, running back Melvin Gordon (No.8 RB last week), wide receiver Mike Evans (No.6 WR last week), and tight end Rob Gronkowski (No.3 TE last week) all scored very well. In the flex spot, I whiffed with Larry Fitzgerald; 6 targets for 3 receptions and 21 yards (finished outside the Top-50).
You win some, you lose some, let’s see how we do in week 3. Here are my picks for Week 3;
Quarterback
I’m not a Chargers fan by any mean, but I love Philip Rivers grit. The kid is tough as nails and in his 14th season he can still sling it all over the yard. He’s home this week and gets a favorable matchup against a leaky Chiefs secondary that is ranked 29th (before the Thursday Night game) against the pass. Rivers have plenty of weapons and will need to utilize all in what figures to be a shootout. I expect a big day for Rivers; 330 yards passing, 3 touchdowns and a pick.
Running Back
In my backfield this week I’ll be lining up the Panthers Jonathan Stewart. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but he’s been steady currently the No. 26 fantasy RB. He’s a worthy of a flex play, but this week against a soft Saints defense he could put up Top-15 fantasy numbers. Saints do a poor job versus the run ranked 24th, so I expect the Panthers to lean on the ground game. With 33 carries in two games thus far, I expect Stewart to lead the ground charge; 20 carries, 105 rushing yards, 2 catches, 15 receiving yards, and a rushing touchdown.
Wide Receiver
This week I am lining up out wide the Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Sure the Patriots know that Hopkins is the only real receiving threat the Texans have, but through two weeks quarterback Deshaun Watson has been able to pepper his favorite target with a heavy diet. Through two weeks Hopkins has been targeted 29 times (leads all receivers) and that has translated into the No.10 fantasy WR. He’s sure to see at least 10 targets on Sunday and the Patriots secondary is not good enough to shut him down. I’d look for a modest line of 7 receptions for 80 yards and a score.
Tight End
My tight end for week 3 is a bit of a risky play The Raiders Jared Cook has seen a steady diet of targets (11 total) in each of the first two weeks, but it has yet to convert into any real production. Cook has just 9 receptions for 81 yards in two games, good enough for the No.18 fantasy TE. This week I expect to see a significant rise in product against a Redskins defense that ranks 28th against the pass (before the Thursday Night game) and has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. This week Cook scores; 6 receptions, 65 receiving yards, and a touchdown.
Flex
Going to reach a little, very little with this pick of running back Lamar Miller. The Patriots are not great against the run, currently ranked 26th and the Texans will have to shorten this one if they hope to keep it close. I am expecting the Texans game plan to be run, run, run and the beneficiary will be Miller. He has 40 touches in 2 games and could see a spike in touches on Sunday. I’m not expecting a big day, but a strong stat line of; 18 carries, 90 rushing yards, 3 catches, 20 receiving yards, and a score.
For those of us engaged in DFS or team defense leagues;
Defense; I am running with the Steelers this week. Looking at the numbers, the Bears struggle with keeping their quarterback upright and the Steelers bring pressure (9 sacks in 2 games). The Bears offense also ranks 20th in total offense, buried in the lower half of the league. The Steel Curtain should feast this Sunday.
That’s My Take.
~David Ortega
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