September 13th, 2015
Sunday
Sunday Starters: Week 1
If you drafted well this past preseason and managed to avoid the injury bug, your lineup should be well set; play your studs. But for those of us already dealing with adversity and looking for Sunday Value, there are a handfull of plays I like that are worth noting.
This being the first weekend of NFL action, value will be key for many of us trying to come out on top in our weekly matchups. And for those of you (like me) who play the weekly games, Sunday value can be paramount.
Looking across the board, there are couple of low-value (in drafts and DFS pricing) wide receivers worth slotting in today; in Green Bay Davante Adams. Even with the return of James Jones, Adams value should remain in tact as the teams best deep threat. And if you recall, last season wide receiver Jordy Nelson averaged 15.5 yards per catch and had 19 receptions of 20 yards or more (inlcuding 8 for 40 yards or more); Adams will be filling Nelson's spot on Sunday.
Another wide receiver I like is the Falcons Leonard Hankerson. Listening to some sports talk, sounds like Roddy White is good to go for Monday, but none-the-less the Falcons run a lot of 3-receiver sets and Hankerson should see plenty of field; enough to find the end-zone.
A quiet running back this week (at least a player not getting a lot of hype or much love) is the Jets Chris Ivory. With no real other threat in the backfield to steal carries, Ivory should get plenty of run against a defense that faced the third most carries last season and allowed the second most rushing yards.
With all the injuries in Washington, as the dust settled the lone survivor at tight end was Jordan Reed. The Redskins tight end has plenty of talent and upside and if he can remain healthy, he'll be a nice weekly play for fantasy owners. Although his matchup is not considered favorable (Dolphins defend tight ends well), Reed in the slot has very good athletiscm and will benefit from wide recievers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon on the outside. This could be a reach, but I like Reed to snag a few balls and reach the end-zone today.
Lastly, a tight end that should be in most lineups today is the Bears Martellus Bennett. As pointed out by ESPN's Mark Schlereth, the Bears new offense (under new head coach John Fox) is a carry-over of the Broncos from last season (tight ends were targeted 96 times in 2014). Bennett is also coming off a career high 90 reception season; so he's got great rapport with his quarterback Jay Cutler. In the new offense look for Cutler to lean on his trusty tight end today.
This is just my take for Week 1.
~David G
September 6th 2015
Sunday
FINDING THIS YEAR'S VALUE
For the most part drafting value is to each his own. You won't know the result of that play until many weeks into your fantasy season. but if you do your due diligence, keep up with the injury updates, follow the reports coming out of training camps, and pay attention to "Sportscenter" or "NFL Access" you will have at least a small inclination as to what is happening.
And even though "Numbers Never Lie" isn't exactly an exact science, it is however a pretty strong indicator and trustworthy guideline to follow when it comes to finding the fantasy value you are looking for in the later rounds of your fantasy drafts.
Having just completed my third fantasy draft, let me offer some opinion and thoughts on a couple of later rounders with value.
The first name is one that was not even drafted; wide receiver James Jones. The ex-Packer wideout was just released by the Giants (part of their cut-downs to 53). Now a free agent, his ex-employer could come calling to add needed depth to their receiving squad. Jones played 7 seasons with the Pack averaging nearly 53 receptions and 730 yards receiving scoring 29 touchdowns in his last 4 campaigns in Green Bay. Jones also finished with a career high 73 receptions in 2014 in Oakland. His numbers don't jump off the board, but in Green Bay he could be a late round flyer with upside as a reliable WR3 or flex play in most formats.
For the past three seasons Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown more than 615 passes in each of those seasons; that's a lot of balls to go around. With wide receiver Julio Jones drawing most of the defenses attention and a banged up Roddy White, the Falcons number three receiver spot could have a lot of fantasy "sex" appeal. In 2013 Harry Douglas ran with that role and flourished when Julio missed much of the season. This season's Harry D, could be wideout Leonard Hankerson. Hank spent four seasons in the turbulent Redskins camp and is coming of ACL surgery from a year ago. Hank has never had a quarterback like Ryan and could benefit greatly in the Falcons pass system. We won't get carried away and try to stretch Hankerson out to more than what he really is; another late round flyer that could pay some nice dividends as a strong flex or low WR3 in deeper 12 and 14 team leagues.
The reports are already saying that Rams rookie running back Todd Gurley is out for week one and that he's not likely to see substantial work on the field until after the team's week 6 bye. In my most recent draft second year running back Tre Mason did not come off the board until round 13. Mason is not exactly tiny at 5'8", he weighs in at 207 pounds. With lightening speed and great agility, he is expected to anchor the Rams run game in the early going this season. Gurley may work his way into the rotation, but Mason is not going anywhere. Falling this late in the draft, Mason can offer value as a strong flex play or even a low end RB2 in deeper formats for the first quarter of the season. And there's no guarantee that Gurley will set the world on fire when he gets on the field; Mason's value could sustain deep into the 2015 season.
This is just my take; three names coming off the boards late that I like.
~David G
September 4th, 2015
Friday
DRAFT STRATEGY: PLAYING TO WIN
If you are ultra-competitive, hate to lose, and always in it to win, then you are a little like me. I may be characterized a little more beyond that and back again; I was born to play games, I love to win, and losing just sucks.
Playing fantasy football has no question brought out all of those wonderful qualities in me that shine best on Sundays. I love to win, although I dont always, but I am always trying that you can count on.
My approach has always been the same when it comes to my fantasy football drafts and as the consumate win-or-die fantasy footballer, I have tried a many strategies and formulas time and time again. I can honestly say I dont have a favorite or go to. I am not sure there is a full proof science or formula to draft, but I am beliver that you have to have a plan when you draft; if you are playing.
With my second draft in the books (completed last Sunday), and a minimum of three more to go this weekend, I wanted to reflect on my recent go-round. Now my first draft was one I approached with balance and looking for minimal risk. My draft position was number 7 in a 10-teamer. That league, although a PPR was a quarteback heavy scoring league. This year is called for some finesse and manuvering to hit all my marks. I think it would generally be scored a B to B+ had I not lost my number one wide receiver Jordy Nelson; no question it's going to be a grind this season and I am going to need a little waiver wire magic if I have any hopes of going deep in the fantasy post-season.
Now my recent draft was a bit different in approach. My play here was swing for the fences and build for the playoff run. This league being more of a standard, balance is key to reach the post-season, but you need some home-runs down the stretch if you hope to make big noise. With the number 8 spot in this 12-teamer PPR league (2-points per reception) Steelers running back LeVeon Bell fell to me and I swung hard for the fence. I am going to miss him the first two games, but this playmaker has tremendous upside and is just the big-bat I'll need in week 14 to make a big hur-rah!
After selecting Megatron (WR-Calvin Johnson) in the 2nd (by the way, I think he's going to finish top three this season) and running back Andre Ellington (46 receptions in 2014) in the 3rd (14th running back off the board....went a little early on him), I took another swing for the fences and pulled Texans running back Arian Foster off the market. Maybe I have been watching a little too much HBO and "Hard Knocks," but when this guy returns like Bell he can be a fantasy football difference maker.
With my 5th round pick (56 overall, 25th WR off the board) I snagged wide receiver Jarvis Landry (84 receptions in 2014), who I think could end up being a bargain since his ADP is around 47th overall. I followed with quarterback Matt Ryan in the 6th (also back him up with Peyton Manning in the 9th-couldn't resist on letting him fall farther) and took another reach with running back Doug Martin in the 7th (35th RB taken); with all the recent positive ink he's been receiving he could also be another bargain.
Notice the trend, with Bell and Foster taken early, I need to make an early run at running back to fill my squad the first quarter of the season. Even with this early run, I was very happy with the cores of receivers I was able to draft; John Brown (ARI), Phillip Dorsett (IND), Dorial Green-Beckham (TEN), and Leonard Hankerson (ATL).
In this league, with one flex spot I'll likely be running with three running backs and two wide receivers (Johnson and Landry). I feel real strong about the quality of running backs I took (when healthy) and I believe my two receivers will provide plenty of punch this season.
My strategy here was simple, I drafted for the fantasy playoffs. There's no question my team is filled with great risk, but I believe if I hit on my picks the rewards could be huge. That was my strategy going in, take the risks (Bell & Foster), find the bargains (Landry, Martin, & Manning), and hope they all pay-off and pay-out down the road.
~David G
August 27th 2015
Wednesday
THE JORDY DILEMMA
If you were like me and looking to cash in on "Hands McGee's" (Packers receiver Jordy Nelson) consistency and volumninous production, you used a high draft selection to nab the league's number six receptions leader (98), number four receiving yards (1,519 yards), and tied for second in touchdowns (13); arguably one of the top fantasy options for 2015.
As it always does every year, injuries play a big part of the pro game, as well as the fantasy game. If you spent one of your top draft selections on Nelson, than you are in the same boat as myself and many others now looking for help through the fantasy waiver wire or even trades.
With Nelson's season over with the knee injury, you know he is going to work hard to come back, and you just know he will (and YOU can too). Even if your top pick or number one wide receiver is shelved for the season, there is time to recover and bounce back.
In my recent draft (a 10-team PPR/IDP league), our rounds went 25 deep so there were quite a few receivers taken that are likely to still be available in many leagues that draft 20 rounds or less. In the league I play, we start two wide receivers with a flex (so we can use three in our starting lineup). On that note with this season another one of those 'years of the wide receiver" (a position that appears very deep this season), some of the more appealing names that came off the board include the following;
Eric Decker, NYJ - 15th round, 3rd pick
Michael Crabtree, Oak, - 15th round, 8th pick
Davante Adams, GB - 16th round, 2nd pick
Malcom Floyd, SD - 17th round, 1st pick
Charles Johnson, Min - 17th round, 7th pick
Donte Moncrief, IND - 24th round, 1st pick
In this group, the notables are Adams, Johnson, and Moncrief. With Nelson out, Adams value will rise significantly as well as his 66 targets from a year ago. In Minnesota, Johnson (59 targets in 2014) could be lining up to be one of quarterback Teddy Bridgewaters more reliable targets, as he averaged nearly seven a game for the final seven weeks of the regular season.
Moncrief came on the scene a year ago as a big-play option nabbing 32 ball on 49 targets for nearly 14 yards a grab. With quarterback Andy Luck set to have another stellar and productive fantasy season expect to see Moncrief in the mix.
A couple of more names of interest that owners should be keeping a watchful eye on; wide receivers James Jones in New York, Leonard Hankerson in Atlanta, and Mohamed Sanu in Cincinnati.
In my opinion Sanu is the riskier of the three with a shaky quarterback at best in Andy Dalton, but he returns in 2015 with 98 targets under his belt and a lot of familiarity with his QB. Jones looks on track to make the Giants as their number 4 reciever, but that's no guarantee. If he is released, his old stomping grounds is Lambeau and it should not surprise if they come calling; his value would spike in a hurry. Hankerson is the question-mark. With no history in Atlanta, he's working for a job, but there are whispers he's been impressive. And with wide receiver Roddy White having recently undergone surgery on his elbow, there's a door open for Hankerson.
Hope some of this information will help those of you in the same boat. Remember it's never over until the fat lady sings and this fantasy season is just getting started.
Good luck fellow players.
~David G.
