FINDING THIS YEAR'S VALUE

September 6th 2015
Sunday

FINDING THIS YEAR'S VALUE

For the most part drafting value is to each his own. You won't know the result of that play until many weeks into your fantasy season. but if you do your due diligence, keep up with the injury updates, follow the reports coming out of training camps, and pay attention to "Sportscenter" or "NFL Access" you will have at least a small inclination as to what is happening.

And even though "Numbers Never Lie" isn't exactly an exact science, it is however a pretty strong indicator and trustworthy guideline to follow when it comes to finding the fantasy value you are looking for in the later rounds of your fantasy drafts.

Having just completed my third fantasy draft, let me offer some opinion and thoughts on a couple of later rounders with value.

The first name is one that was not even drafted; wide receiver James Jones. The ex-Packer wideout was just released by the Giants (part of their cut-downs to 53). Now a free agent, his ex-employer could come calling to add needed depth to their receiving squad. Jones played 7 seasons with the Pack averaging nearly 53 receptions and 730 yards receiving scoring 29 touchdowns in his last 4 campaigns in Green Bay. Jones also finished with a career high 73 receptions in 2014 in Oakland. His numbers don't jump off the board, but in Green Bay he could be a late round flyer with upside as a reliable WR3 or flex play in most formats.

For the past three seasons Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown more than 615 passes in each of those seasons; that's a lot of balls to go around. With wide receiver Julio Jones drawing most of the defenses attention and a banged up Roddy White, the Falcons number three receiver spot could have a lot of fantasy "sex" appeal. In 2013 Harry Douglas ran with that role and flourished when Julio missed much of the season. This season's Harry D, could be wideout Leonard Hankerson. Hank spent four seasons in the turbulent Redskins camp and is coming of ACL surgery from a year ago. Hank has never had a  quarterback like Ryan and could benefit greatly in the Falcons pass system. We won't get carried away and try to stretch Hankerson out to more than what he really is; another late round flyer that could pay some nice dividends as a strong flex or low WR3 in deeper 12 and 14 team leagues.

The reports are already saying that Rams rookie running back Todd Gurley is out for week one and that he's not likely to see substantial work on the field until after the team's week 6 bye. In my most recent draft second year running back Tre Mason did not come off the board until round 13. Mason is not exactly tiny at 5'8", he weighs in at 207 pounds. With lightening speed and great agility, he is expected to anchor the Rams run game in the early going this season. Gurley may work his way into the rotation, but Mason is not going anywhere. Falling this late in the draft, Mason can offer value as a strong flex play or even a low end RB2 in deeper formats for the first quarter of the season. And there's no guarantee that Gurley will set the world on fire when he gets on the field; Mason's value could sustain deep into the 2015 season.

This is just my take; three names coming off the boards late that I like.

~David G

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition

October 25th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 8 Starts-Sits

My Favorites for Sunday

So as Sunday draws near, it’s another slate of games and another list of some of my fantasy favorites for week 8. I have several lineups going in season long leagues as well as many in the weekly plays; these are several of the names that dominate both.

RB-Jerick McKinnon

The Vikings rookie runner turned in a nice performance a week ago rushing for more than 100 yards against a good Bills defense. This could be an even better and bigger week for McKinnon facing the Buccaneers 25^th ranked rushing defense that is allowing 128.3 yards per game. The Bucs defense also allows the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 8 total touchdowns. This could be a good week for McKinnon to find the end-zone; start him.

RB-Tre Mason

The Rams rookie running back is finally getting his chance and coming off an impressive 18-carry, 85 yards rushing with a touchdown performance a week ago would suggest he’ll be the hot hand to start this Sunday against the Chiefs. The Chiefs defense has not surrendered a lot of yards on the ground this season, but their 18^th ranked rush defense is allowing 4.7 yards per carry. This is one that might be a little off the radar, but I like Mason here; he looked very good last week, quick, elusive, and explosive. He should get first shot out of the gate and I would expect another solid performance. If you are weak at the RB spot, he could be a good start this week.

WR-Sammy Watkins

His 2014 season has not been a breakout thus far, but the kid has shown some flashes of great. Bills Quarterback Kyle Orton gives the position some stability and Watkins has benefitted with double digit targets in two of his last three games. The Jets defense is ranked 18^th versus the pass and it allows the 12^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including the 10^th most receptions and 8 touchdowns. Watkins is too great a talent for the Jets secondary; he’ll see plenty of opportunities and is a good bet to reach the end-zone. Start him this week.

WR-Mohamed Sanu

The Ravens may be on a roll coming off an impressive win over a stumbling Falcons team, but their secondary continues to get shreaded and surrender lots of yards (1,415 yards to WR-most allowed) and catches (112 receptions to WR-most allowed). With no AJ Green on Sunday, wide receiver Mohamed Sanu figures to see plenty of opportunities and could be in line for a big game. Since becoming the number one, Sanu is averaging 10 targets and nearly 6 receptions per game; he’s a must play.

TE-Zach Ertz

The Eagles tight end has yet to make much noise this season, but Sunday could be a big day for the Eagles pass catcher. Ertz faces a Cardinals defense this Sunday that allows the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including 11.8 yards per reception. Ertz is greatly under-utilized, but if the Eagles can get him heavily involved on Sunday he could be hugely productive. I like his chances and would play him ahead of players like Jason Witten, Travis Kelce, Jared Cook, and Heath Miller

TE-Dwayne Allen

With the news of wide receiver Reggie Wayne OUT for Sunday, that just means more balls to go around for the healthy receivers, including tight end Dwayne Allen. The Colts tight end has been consistent this season and ranks in the top ten for fantasy. His matchup this week against a Steelers defense that allows the 9^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends would suggest a nice day. Allen has scored in 5 of his teams’ 7 games and with the Steelers having allowed 4 touchdowns to tight ends so far this season, number 6 could be this week. Allen is a strong favorite this week, play him.

Week 8 Sleepers

WR-Davante Adams

The Packers offense has a good matchup this week in a game that figures to feature a lot of offense. The last couple of weeks Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has not needed to throw the ball a great deal to do significant damage. This Sunday could be different against a Saints team that is certainly capable of matching the Pack points for points. I am expecting Rodgers to put the ball in the air enough for Adams to see a nice share of targets; Adams is definitely a flex favorite this Sunday.

WR-Percy Harvin

Although there’s no real data to suggest Harvin could have a big Sunday, this is more gut feeling and trying to read between the lines. Harvin is an explosive talent, something the Jets offense has been in desperate need of; don’t expect Marty Mornhinweg to waste any time getting Harvin involved. He could be a nice sneaky flex play this week.

That’s my take for week 8.

~David Ortega