FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late-Night Edition

October 13th, 2018

Week 6: DFS Saturday

So, it’s been a while since my last entry, but like the rest of the fantasy football universe, I too have been playing the usual seasonal and weekly leagues.

So far, my track record for DFS has been break-even, so with some tasty Week 6 matchups, let’s see if there’s an opportunity to cash out this week.

The two primary day games where we could see a lot of fantasy explosions come in the Buccaneers-Falcons and the Bengals-Steelers, where the offensive weapons are plenty and the defenses are struggling.

In Draft Kings I am running a double stack with several players from these two matchups; QB-Matt Ryan paired with WR-Calvin Ridley and WR-Mohamed Sanu in my flex. The Bucs defense has allowed 9 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers and with the focus on Julio Jones, these two look like great prospects to find pay dirt.

Although Big Ben (Roethlisberger) is on the road this week, his week 6 matchup against the Bengals who allow the 7th most receptions to wide receivers make his two primary receivers (Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster) favorable plays this week as well.

Even with changes at Quarterback being made during their bye week, the Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans could be eyeing a huge Sunday against a Falcons secondary that has allowed 10 touchdowns to wide receivers (most allowed).

Speaking of a struggling defense, not only have the Falcons been torched through the air, but with a run defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, this is the week to play the Bucs Ronald Jones II. I am reading Jones may not start but given the state of the Bucs running game and this matchup, he should see plenty of opportunity to make some noise.

I have managed to see quite a bit of Browns Quarterback Baker Mayfield and I am impressed with his poise in the pocket and his arm strength. It’s a home matchup against a Chargers defense that will still be without pass rusher Joey Bosa. Given time to throw, I like Mayfield on Sunday paired with his number one receiver Jarvis Landry; three straight games with double-digit targets. With that much volume against the Chargers defense that allows the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, Landry looks like a solid play.

That’s my Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 11th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 10 Fantasy Notes

With the start of Sunday’s games less than 24 hours away, here’s a rundown of notes for some of the Week 10 matchups;

GB @ CHI

The Bears running back Jordan Howard has been a beast of a runner this season racking up 662 yards rushing (ranks 5th) which include three 100-yard efforts, He’ll face a Packers defense that ranks 22nd against the run and allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

CLE @ DET

Normally not a team that runs much, but for the Lions this week they may be forced to lean even more on Matthew Stafford and their passing game. The Lions face the Browns number 4 ranked run defense, so look for Marvin Jones Jr and Stafford to play big in this one.

PIT @  IND

With the return of Martavis Bryant this week, the Steelers will be employing all of their Killer Bees; Ben, Bell, Brown, and Bryant. It’s a road game, but with the addition of JuJu Smith-Schuster it will be Big Ben and his JuJu-Bees on Sunday; look for big numbers from Roethlisberger.

NYJ @ TB

Across the board, this looks like a good matchup for the Jets offense. The Bucs defense has struggled this season and in particular against opposing wide receivers allowing the 2nd most receptions. In DFS and PPR formats and especially I’m all in with Jets receiver Robby Anderson; Sunday could be a big day.

MIN @ WAS

A couple of notes in this one, with Redskins tight end Jordan Reed not 100 percent with a big questionable tag for Sunday, Vernon Davis figures to see a more prominent role in the passing game. On the other side, the Vikings will have a healthy Stefon Diggs on the field. With Diggs healthy, his presence will draw some of the Redskins attention away from Adam Thielen; a week 10 favorite

HOU @ LAR

The Rams offense is rolling and with a home tilt against the ailing Texans, this week, the wheels will keep turning. All eyes on the defense will be focused on Todd Gurley, but facing a secondary that allows the 6th most fantasy points to opposing receivers, we could see Sammy Watkins heavily in the mix.

DAL @ ATL

The Falcons will play host to the Cowboys and their 15th ranked secondary that’s allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. With all the attention likely to be focused on Julio Jones, Sunday looks like a good day for Mohamed Sanu to find pay dirt.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 22nd, 2016
Saturday Evening edition

Week 7 Fantasy Notes & Predictions

Tomorrow, week 7 kicks off early with another London matchup featuring the Rams and the Giants. I'm pretty sure Todd Gurley owners are starting to get a little restless. In six games this season Gurley has yet to top 100 yards rushing, but a new continent could be the difference tomorrow. The Giants have been pretty good this season against the run, but they do allow more than 3.8 yards per carry this season and have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past two weeks. Perhaps maybe some jet-lag or overseas distractions could kick in and take their toll as well. With that said, I like Gurley to finally top the century mark and reach the endzone.

The Falcons will be playing host to the visiting Chargers and for quarterback Matt Ryan that will likely mean his 5th game with more than 300 yards passing in seven starts. Ryan leads all players in fantasy scoring and has been huge this season with 2,075 yards passing and 15 touchdowns in six games. The Chargers secondary have had their struggles this season allowing the 10th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and nearly 300 yards passing per game. Tomorrow could be another long Sunday on the road for the Bolts defense. With Ryan throwing for a bunch tomorrow, fantasy owners should keep their eyes on wide receiver Mohamed Sanu; could be a nice day for the Falcon wideout.

With Redskins starting tight end Jordan Reed expected to be sidelined again this week, fantasy owners looking for a plug and play option should consider Vernon Davis. Davis will get the start and facing the Lions defense he'll have a good shot at scoring against a defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and 7 touchdowns (most in the league). Davis is likely a boom or bust option for redraft leagues, but has great value in DFS.

The Buccaneers return from their bye to face the visiting Niners and with Doug Martin still sidelined, running back Jacquizz Rodgers will get the start. Rodgers carried the load in week 5 with 30 rushing attempts for 101 yards and added 5 receptions for another 28 yards receiving. This week he matches up against the Niners defense that has allowed 3rd most fantasy  points to opposing running backs, including 9 rushing touchdowns (2nd most in the league). Rodgers is a borderline RB1/RB2 this week and is in line for another productive Sunday. He's also a great value play in DFS.

That's my take for Week 7.

~David G. Ortega

THE JORDY DILEMMA

August 27th 2015
Wednesday

THE JORDY DILEMMA

If you were like me and looking to cash in on "Hands McGee's" (Packers receiver Jordy Nelson) consistency and volumninous production, you used a high draft selection to nab the league's number six receptions leader (98), number four receiving yards (1,519 yards), and tied for second in touchdowns (13); arguably one of the top fantasy options for 2015.

As it always does every year, injuries play a big part of the pro game, as well as the fantasy game. If you spent one of your top draft selections on Nelson, than you are in the same boat as myself and many others now looking for help through the fantasy waiver wire or even trades.

With Nelson's season over with the knee injury, you know he is going to work hard to come back, and you just know he will (and YOU can too). Even if your top pick or number one wide receiver is shelved for the season, there is time to recover and bounce back.

In my recent draft (a 10-team PPR/IDP league), our rounds went 25 deep so there were quite a few receivers taken that are likely to still be available in many leagues that draft 20 rounds or less. In the league I play, we start two wide receivers with a flex (so we can use three in our starting lineup). On that note with this season another one of those 'years of the wide receiver" (a position that appears very deep this season), some of the more appealing names that came off the board include the following;

Eric Decker, NYJ - 15th round, 3rd pick
Michael Crabtree, Oak, - 15th round, 8th pick
Davante Adams, GB - 16th round, 2nd pick
Malcom Floyd, SD - 17th round, 1st pick
Charles Johnson, Min - 17th round, 7th pick
Donte Moncrief, IND - 24th round, 1st pick

In this group, the notables are Adams, Johnson, and Moncrief. With Nelson out, Adams value will rise significantly as well as his 66 targets from a year ago. In Minnesota, Johnson (59 targets in 2014) could be lining up to be one of quarterback Teddy Bridgewaters more reliable targets, as he averaged nearly seven a game for the final seven weeks of the regular season. 

Moncrief came on the scene a year ago as a big-play option nabbing 32 ball on 49 targets for nearly 14 yards a grab. With quarterback Andy Luck set to have another stellar and productive fantasy season expect to see Moncrief in the mix.

A couple of more names of interest that owners should be keeping a watchful eye on; wide receivers James Jones in New York, Leonard Hankerson in Atlanta, and Mohamed Sanu in Cincinnati.

In my opinion Sanu is the riskier of the three with a shaky quarterback at best in Andy Dalton, but he returns in 2015 with 98 targets under his belt and a lot of familiarity with his QB. Jones looks on track to make the Giants as their number 4 reciever, but that's no guarantee. If he is released, his old stomping grounds is Lambeau and it should not surprise if they come calling; his value would spike in a hurry. Hankerson is the question-mark. With no history in Atlanta, he's working for a job, but there are whispers he's been impressive. And with wide receiver Roddy White having recently undergone surgery on his elbow, there's a door open for Hankerson.

Hope some of this information will help those of you in the same boat. Remember it's never over until the fat lady sings and this fantasy season is just getting started.

Good luck fellow players.

~David G.

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition

October 25th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 8 Starts-Sits

My Favorites for Sunday

So as Sunday draws near, it’s another slate of games and another list of some of my fantasy favorites for week 8. I have several lineups going in season long leagues as well as many in the weekly plays; these are several of the names that dominate both.

RB-Jerick McKinnon

The Vikings rookie runner turned in a nice performance a week ago rushing for more than 100 yards against a good Bills defense. This could be an even better and bigger week for McKinnon facing the Buccaneers 25^th ranked rushing defense that is allowing 128.3 yards per game. The Bucs defense also allows the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 8 total touchdowns. This could be a good week for McKinnon to find the end-zone; start him.

RB-Tre Mason

The Rams rookie running back is finally getting his chance and coming off an impressive 18-carry, 85 yards rushing with a touchdown performance a week ago would suggest he’ll be the hot hand to start this Sunday against the Chiefs. The Chiefs defense has not surrendered a lot of yards on the ground this season, but their 18^th ranked rush defense is allowing 4.7 yards per carry. This is one that might be a little off the radar, but I like Mason here; he looked very good last week, quick, elusive, and explosive. He should get first shot out of the gate and I would expect another solid performance. If you are weak at the RB spot, he could be a good start this week.

WR-Sammy Watkins

His 2014 season has not been a breakout thus far, but the kid has shown some flashes of great. Bills Quarterback Kyle Orton gives the position some stability and Watkins has benefitted with double digit targets in two of his last three games. The Jets defense is ranked 18^th versus the pass and it allows the 12^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including the 10^th most receptions and 8 touchdowns. Watkins is too great a talent for the Jets secondary; he’ll see plenty of opportunities and is a good bet to reach the end-zone. Start him this week.

WR-Mohamed Sanu

The Ravens may be on a roll coming off an impressive win over a stumbling Falcons team, but their secondary continues to get shreaded and surrender lots of yards (1,415 yards to WR-most allowed) and catches (112 receptions to WR-most allowed). With no AJ Green on Sunday, wide receiver Mohamed Sanu figures to see plenty of opportunities and could be in line for a big game. Since becoming the number one, Sanu is averaging 10 targets and nearly 6 receptions per game; he’s a must play.

TE-Zach Ertz

The Eagles tight end has yet to make much noise this season, but Sunday could be a big day for the Eagles pass catcher. Ertz faces a Cardinals defense this Sunday that allows the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including 11.8 yards per reception. Ertz is greatly under-utilized, but if the Eagles can get him heavily involved on Sunday he could be hugely productive. I like his chances and would play him ahead of players like Jason Witten, Travis Kelce, Jared Cook, and Heath Miller

TE-Dwayne Allen

With the news of wide receiver Reggie Wayne OUT for Sunday, that just means more balls to go around for the healthy receivers, including tight end Dwayne Allen. The Colts tight end has been consistent this season and ranks in the top ten for fantasy. His matchup this week against a Steelers defense that allows the 9^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends would suggest a nice day. Allen has scored in 5 of his teams’ 7 games and with the Steelers having allowed 4 touchdowns to tight ends so far this season, number 6 could be this week. Allen is a strong favorite this week, play him.

Week 8 Sleepers

WR-Davante Adams

The Packers offense has a good matchup this week in a game that figures to feature a lot of offense. The last couple of weeks Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has not needed to throw the ball a great deal to do significant damage. This Sunday could be different against a Saints team that is certainly capable of matching the Pack points for points. I am expecting Rodgers to put the ball in the air enough for Adams to see a nice share of targets; Adams is definitely a flex favorite this Sunday.

WR-Percy Harvin

Although there’s no real data to suggest Harvin could have a big Sunday, this is more gut feeling and trying to read between the lines. Harvin is an explosive talent, something the Jets offense has been in desperate need of; don’t expect Marty Mornhinweg to waste any time getting Harvin involved. He could be a nice sneaky flex play this week.

That’s my take for week 8.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Evening Edition

September 17th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Don’t Hit the Snooze Button

My Week 2 Sleepers

Week 3 starts in less than 24 hours, so like all fantasy owners we need to be quick to the wire if we are to make any worthy pickups that count; but who to grab?

After watching a lot of football last Sunday, one player that jumped out at me in the earlier games was the Bills rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins. I really wasn’t expecting a lot from the kid this season, but he’s a superior talent and has clearly separated himself from the other receivers on the squad. Watkins leads the team with 15 targets this season, including last weeks 11 when caught 8 passes for 117 yards and a score. This week Watkins and company host a Chargers defense that allows the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. This is a good matchup for Watkins; if he’s available he needs to be owned and could be a strong flex or WR3 play this Sunday.

Like the Bills rookie wide receiver, the Texans have a young rising star in wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The 2^nd year wideout has had a nice start to his 2014 campaign recording 7 receptions for 111 yards and two touchdowns. Hopkins is second on the team with 10 targets and has already developed a nice rapport with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. This week’s matchup against a Giants defense that allows the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receiver is a prime matchup and great opportunity for Hopkins to breakout. He’s also a nice flex or WR3 play for week 3.

Now here’s an opportunity play that I am feeling real good about. With the Bengals looking at a week 4 bye, it would only make sense to sit an ailing A.J. Green. Fantasy owners will have to wait for the updates and see if Green sits or plays. If Green is sidelined, I like wide receiver Mohamed Sanu to pick up the slack. The Bengals will play host to Tennessee this week and the Titan’s secondary has been good thus far this season. But last week, the Cowboys number receiver posted big numbers and with Green out I like Sanu to play that same role. With Green sidelined in week 2, Sanu only targeted four times was very effective totaling 3 receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. If it’s Sanu and no Green, I would expect more of the same this week; he could be a low-end WR2 or WR3.

That’s my take for week 3.

~David Ortega