FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

November 29th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Wednesday Evening Edition

The Wednesday Watercooler

Fantasy Football Free Agency

Looking for Week 13 help while chasing a playoff spot, with just a few weeks left to make your move, free agency still has some gems with fantasy appeal.

WR, Jayden Reed (Packers) Only rostered in 49.4% of NFL fantasy leagues and 39.5% of ESPN fantasy leagues, Reed has produced as a solid fantasy WR2 over the last three weeks. During this stretch he has totaled 13 receptions (on 19 targets) for 164 yards receiving, and two touchdown receptions, adding another 62 yards rushing and another score. With a Week 13 matchup against the Chiefs, Reed has flex appeal.

RB, Samaje Perine (Broncos) Only rostered in 31.5% of NFL fantasy leagues and 31.2 of ESPN fantasy leagues, has recently seen enough run to bring him into the flex conversation. Over his last two games Perine has averaged 66.5 yards of offense with 8 receptions and a rushing score. With a Week 13 matchup against the Texans, in what could be a high scoring affair, Perine could once again be a flex option.

WR, Noah Brown (Texans) Perhaps the forgotten man since being sidelined with injury after week 10, Brown still remains available in many leagues, rostered in 35.1% of ESPN fantasy leagues and 15.5% of NFL fantasy leagues. In his last two games Brown totaled 13 receptions for 325 yards receiving with a touchdown. If he plays he’ll have a tough matchup in Week 13 versus a surging Broncos defense, but with receivers Tank Dell and Nico Collins also available, he could see favorable matchups and figure in as a flex play.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

November 12th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Gametime

Injuries always play a factor and influence game-flow and the potential outcomes in every game. Looking ahead to today’s slate of games, a couple of injury notes that could affect player performances in Week 10.

Tyler Boyd (Bengals)

With the potential of missing both wide receivers Tee Higgins (ruled OUT) and Ja’Marr Chase (back), Boyd would be elevated to the number one primary receiver. The Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has been slinging it all over the yard the past several weeks, making Boyd a favorite today in seasonal, as well as DFS.

Brandon Powell (Vikings)

The Vikings are still without wide receiver Justin Jefferson (activated off IR) and likely do not have KJ Osborn available today. Jordan Addison will be the popular pick today and deservedly so, but Brandon Powell will have some flex appeal and DFS value today. Even tight end TJ Hockenson is noted as possibly being on a pitch count today. For a lack of options available, Powell could see his role expand greatly today.

Tank Dell (Texans)

The Texans rookie wide receiver blew up last week against the Buccaneers, it was his third game with more than 20 fantasy points (ppr). With starting wide receiver Nico Collins (ruled OUT) sidelined today, Dell will likely become the defacto number one with a huge ceiling against a suspect Bengals 22nd ranked (vs the pass) secondary.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL FIXX

November 4th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

Friday’s Saturday’s Fantasy Fixx

(My DFS Lineup - Week 9)

I love to play DFS every week, but I have yet to hit the Millionaire-maker. Until I do I’ll just keep throwing my hat in the ring and taking a shot. This week I went heavy with the backfield, relying on ball carriers with higher usage rate.

For Week 9, I will shoot with the following;

QB-Derek Carr (Saints) The Saints signal caller has been rolling lately with three straight games with 300+ yards passing. This week he has a home matchup with a 30th ranked Bears secondary.

RB-Jonathan Taylor (Colts) Last week Taylor started heating up with 95 yards rushing last week on 12 carries. This week's matchup against the looks great for 

RB-Aaron Jones (Packers) At home, Rams are going with a back-up quarterback, it’s the perfect storm to turn Jones loose. He’s only averaged 11 touches his last two games, turn him loose.

WR-Van Jefferson (Falcons) With Drake London ruled out for Week 9, the door is open for Jefferson to make an impact in the passing game. A change at quarterback this week may also serve well for Jefferson.

WR-Nico Collins (Texans) The Texans wideout is coming off a quiet Week 8 showing and has not made much noise since his Week 4 explosion against the Steelers. This week he faces a Buccaneers secondary that has struggled against receivers the past couple of games. Week 9 could be redemption for Collins.

WR- Terry McLaurin (Commanders) The Commanders leading receiver this season is averaging better than 10 targets per game over his last three. His target rate gives him a chance for a big game. 

TE-Cole Kmet (Bears) This pick is based on game script. The Bears receivers will likely draw the meat of the secondary. Kmet was targeted 10 times last week and in a matchup that could see the Bears trailing on the road, Kmet could see similar usage.

RB-Alvin Kamara (Saints) This season Kamara has been incredibly safe this season with a higher floor than most. He leads all backfields this season in touches per game and has a very good matchup this week against the Bears who struggle with pass catching running backs, most receiving yards allowed this season.

DST-Browns. The Browns defense has been consistent and one of the safest plays this season. They are home this week against a Cardinals offense that will have a rookie QB making his first career start.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY HEROES WEEK 4

October 2nd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Monday Afternoon Edition

NFL Sunday Week 4:

Sunday’s Heroes

Another wild weekend in the NFL. 70 points weren’t scored in any games this weekend, but there were plenty of close games, fantastic finishes, Overtime thrillers, and one team returning back to earth.

As is the case in the NFL every weekend there are performances to remember. In Buffalo there were the five touchdowns by Josh Allen (4 pass, 1 run), in Tennessee the return of King Henry (122 yards rushing and a touchdown), and in Indianapolis the Legend of Puka continues (9 receptions, 163 yards receiving, and a touchdown). NFL Sunday Week 4 was just another great day filled with great performances by some great players.

These are just some of those NFL Week 4 Sunday Heroes.

QB, Anthony Richardson (Colts) - In week 4 Richardson was special. He led the Colts back from a 23-point deficit and did it with both his arm and legs. Richardson passed for 200 yards and threw two touchdowns in the comeback, while rushing for 56 yards and scored another touchdown. For the second time this season he has finished as a Top-5 fantasy quarterback, in week 4 he finished the day as the fantasy QB2. There’s some risk of injury with Richardson that we’ve seen this season, but he’s entered the must-start conversation with his leg production.

RB, Kyren Williams (Rams) - The Rams running back was the fantasy RB3 on Sunday, posting Top-10 fantasy numbers for the third time in four games. Against the Colts Williams rushed for 103 yards, added two rushing touchdowns, while catching three passes for another 24 yards receiving. His 28 touches (25 carries and three receptions) were his highest total for the season. We’ve seen enough from Williams this season, he’s the lead back in Los Angeles and a must-start.

WR, Nico Collins (Texans) - The Texans wide receiver rose from the week 3 ashes and had another solid performance on Sunday. Collins has been terrific much of the season and in Week 4 he did not disappoint, putting up Top-3 fantasy receiver numbers. The Texans wideout was targeted 9 times, recording 7 receptions for 168 yards receiving and two touchdowns. A bounce back performance for Nico and a definitive statement, he’s a WR-1, and should be in your lineup every week.

TE, Jonnu Smith (Falcons) - The Falcons other tight end Jonnu Smith has been surprisingly good for fantasy owners this season. On Sunday he connected with the Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder for 6 receptions, for 95 yards receiving, finishing the day as fantasy TE3. This season Smith has been targeted 20 times (one fewer than tight end Kyle Pitts) and has more receptions (15) and yards receiving (179) than teammate Pitts. Jonnu may be the tight end to start in Atlanta.

IDP-DL, Maxx Crosby (Raiders) - The Raiders pass rushing defensive end had an afternoon on Sunday week 4. Crosby was a disruptor all afternoon, recording 5 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 sacks, 2 QB hits, and 2 tackles for loss. His engine had no quit.

IDP-LB, Kahlil Mack (Chargers) - The Chargers pass rush specialist was in full beast mode on Sunday terrorizing the Raiders rookie quarterback Aiden O’Connell. Mack sacked the quarterback six times and added 8 solo tackles, 2 assists, 5 tackles for loss, 4 QB hits, 1 pass defense and 2 forced fumbles. He was a complete terror on Sunday.

IDP-DB, Antoine Winfield Jr (Buccaneers) - The Buccaneers defensive back was big on the day, causing mischief and raising havoc on the field. Winfield was busy on the afternoon recording 6 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 QB hit, 1 pass defense, 1 forced fumble and a fumble recovery.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

September 29th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 4: Best Matchups)

We’ve entered another weekend slate of games, still trying to recover from the week that was and looking forward to the week that could be. Could there be any monster games lurking in the shadows of the week 4 schedule?

Just like the previous week there are plenty of tasty matchups and a ton of data to dissect and figure out how to take advantage. The fantasy world can be cruel and she can be kind, looking ahead to the games of Week 4, these are some matchups we are hoping she smiles;

QB-Daniel Jones (Giants) - It’s been a tumultuous season for the Giants and quarterback Daniel Jones to this point. A comeback win and two blowout losses have fantasy owners holding their breath and hoping for the best. Well some of the best could arrive this Monday in the form of the Seahawks secondary, ranked 31st versus the pass and allowing the 2nd most completions to opposing quarterbacks. Another big key for Jones will be his tight end, a position of weakness for the Seahawks defense, that ranks 27th against in yards allowed. Daniel Jones finishes as a Top-12 fantasy QB this week.

QB-Joe Burrow (Bengals) - The Bengals passing game has yet to find its wings in this young season, but week 4 could offer hope for Burrow and company to air it out. In week 4 Burrow faces a Titan’s secondary that has allowed the 3rd most passing yards (899-yards passing) and a 72% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. This game sets up as a get right matchup for Burrow and company. Sunday will be Burrow’s first 300-yard passing effort in 2023.

RB-Dameon Pierce (Texans) - It has been a very slow start for Pierce this season, currently the fantasy RB34, he has totaled just 100 yards rushing in three games averaging a paltry 2.5 yards per carry. This week Pierce and the Texans will take on the Steelers and have a shot to finally get the running game out of first gear. The Steelers defense is ranked 31st against the run (entering week 4), allowing around 5.5 yards per carry, so if there was ever a time for Pierce to break out this week should be it. I say he does it.

RB-James Cook (Bills) - Through the first three weeks of the season, Cook is the league's third leading rusher with 267 yards on the ground, averaging an impressive 6.1 yards per tote. He’ll have a great chance to continue his success this Sunday facing a Dolphins defense that has allowed 337 yards rushing (ranked 27th entering week 4) at a 4.7 yards per carry clip. In his only game at home this season, Cook posted a 100-yard rushing effort and will look to continue this trend on Sunday. I like his chances.

WR-Tee Higgins (Bengals) - Higgins has had an up and down season through the first three weeks and this weekend sets up as a great chance to finish on the upside. The Bengals receiver will get a shot at a Titans secondary that has surrendered 57 receptions (3rd most) and 690 yards (4th most) to opposing receivers. Look for the Bengals offense to take advantage and Higgins to put up solid WR-2 numbers for the week.

WR-Nico Collins (Texans) - Through the first two weeks of the season, Collins was well inside the Top-10 of fantasy receivers with 226 yards receiving and 13 receptions. Last week he was targeted just three times and had a quiet afternoon. The Steelers secondary has allowed the 5th most fantasy points and 6th most receptions to opposing wide receivers. Fantasy owners can expect Collins to return to the form he displayed the first two weeks.

TE-Evan Engram (Jaguars) - Engram is the No.4 fantasy tight end through the first three weeks and he has been steady all season. The Jaguars tight end ranks third among tight ends with 21 targets, entering week 4 he ranked tied for 2nd with 18 receptions, and his 173 yards receiving ranks third. The Jaguars are in London this weekend to square off against the Falcons and Engram will get a chance to face a defense that allows the 6th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Entering week 4 the Falcons have surrendered 18 receptions (tied for the 6th most) and two touchdown receptions to opposing tight ends. Engram has been solid this season and hasn’t finished lower than fantasy TE7. This won’t be the week he does, expect more of the same.

TE-Kyle Pitts (Falcons) - The Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts enjoyed his most productive week this season, catching 5 balls for 41 yards receiving on 9 targets. The targets are trending in the right direction and the matchup this week is good versus the Jaguars. The Jags defense has allowed the 4th highest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and through three games they’ve surrendered two touchdowns. Expect Pitts to continue to trend in the right direction. This weekend he enters the Top-12 fantasy tight end discussion for the week.

These players may already be locked into your lineup and they may not, but if they are sitting on your bench and you are facing a start’em dilemma consider these plays for Week 4. I guarantee nothing and offer even less, these are just my forecasts about their respective week 4 matchups and outcomes for this weekend. 

Strong plays to consider for DFS as well.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: 10 THINGS FOR NFL SUNDAY

September 24th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

10 Things for NFL Sunday

NFL Sunday week 3 is only just a few hours away, fresh batteries are in my remotes, breaking out all of my TVs, switching on Youtube TV (with Sunday Ticket), and I’m giving all of my fantasy lineups a second and third look. 

There’s still a lot to take in, the never-ending notes to review, last minute changes to make due to injuries, all the while the clock to kickoff is counting down. You just gotta love fantasy football.

The cold beverages are on ic and football foods are in great supply for the 10 hour marathon that lies ahead. And speaking of ten, here are the Top-10 things on my mind as I await the kickoff to NFL Sunday Week 3;

1. “Can the Cheetah be Caught” - The Dolphins will be without wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, so I’m expecting to see the Phin go into overdrive getting the ball into the hands of Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins offense still has other capable receivers to occupy the defense, so the reeling Broncos are going to have a tough time slowing down the Cheetah, let alone catch him.

2. “Can the Bills keep Cooking” - The weather may not cooperate in this matchup with the Bills and Commanders. Bills running back James Cook (fantasy RB17)  is coming off career week 2 performance, Cooks posted his best game as a pro with 123 yards rushing and 17 carries. He totaled 21 touches in week 2 and could be in line for a repeat workload.

3. “Is it Miller Time at Lambeau” - With Jamaal Williams shelved for Sunday, the Saints rookie running back Kendre Miller will not only make his debut, but he’ll have a real opportunity to have an impact. As the old saying goes “Cream rises to the top”, Miller could have an impact today.

4. “Can Stroud find more Nico” - Through two weeks this season, quarterback CJ Stroud to wide receiver Nico Collins has been bank. Collins has been targeted 20 times in two games and enters today as the fantasy WR7. I’m expecting more of the same against the Jags.

5. “Ridley, Believe it or Not” - Last week was more of a forgettable week for Ridley and the Jags offense. This week is a nice get right game for Ridley and company. Even though his numbers were down last week (2/32/0), Ridley was still targeted 8 times, 19 for the season.

6. “An All-out Aerial Assault in Minny” - It’s Herbert versus Cousins, it's the Chargers and the Vikings. Through two weeks the Chargers defense is last versus the pass and last week, the Vikings secondary showed their vulnerability against the pass facing the Eagles. The Chargers have a pair of receivers that should give the Vikes secondary fits all afternoon. The Bolts have to contend with Justin Jefferson, enough said. Shootout.

7. “Can Walker get Running” - The Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker has yet to get moving this season, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry. He’s fantasy RB14 facing the Panthers 23rd ranked run defense today, and will try to get the ground game out of first gear.

8. “Can Hollywood Right the Script” - The Cowboys defense has been stellar through two weeks, but they just suffered a major loss to their secondary. That could be key for Marquise “Hollywood” Brown to breakout today, as the Cardinals play host and look to secure their first win of the season.

9. “Is Skies the Limit” - The Chiefs entered Jacksonville last week 0-1 and came out of there with the road win. The passing game has yet to really get off the ground (by Mahomes standards), but we did see the appearance of Skyy Moore. The 2nd year receiver caught three balls, 70 yards and a touchdown on 4 targets. I see the Chiefs starting to feature the young receiver more and more and the season progresses.

10. “Sunday night Pickens” - Could Sunday Night be the encore performance fantasy owners are hoping for? Pickens is now the clear number one receiver and last Monday he showed his skills and big play ability. Enter the Raiders defense in week 3 that has allowed the highest rate of completion to opposing wide receivers. As long as the O-line gives Pickett time, we could see another big game from Pickens.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: (DFS) THE FAVORITE FIVE

September 23rd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

(DFS) The Favorite Five

(Draft Kings)

My week two was a rough week for DFS picks. The Lions connection (Goff-to-St.Brown) fared well, but Travis Etienne Jr, Darnell Mooney (injured), and Adam Trautman all fell flat in week 2. The Chiefs decided to play good defense on the road and shut down Etienne, Mooney ended up pulling a now show, and Trautman became the forgotten man in Denver. 

Even when you’re down, you gotta look up and move on.

Now looking forward to NFL Sunday, Week 3 I am planning my redemption and huge bounce back with some strong plays. These are players that deserve Week 3 consideration.

QB-Trevor Lawrence ($6800) - I love this game as a great bounce back opportunity for Lawrence and company. Lawrence, currently the fantasy QB22, is home again this week and faces a Texans defense that is allowing a high 76.3 completion rate through the first two weeks. Lawrence and the offense were off last week against the Chiefs defense, but will look to get right in this one by taking advantage of the Texans deficiency in the Red Zone, 7 touchdowns allowed in 9 trips.

RB-Tony Pollard ($8000) - The Cowboys running back is currently the fantasy RB4 with 191 scrimmage yards and two rushing touchdowns. Through the team’s first two games Pollard has been heavily involved with 50 touches (25 avg/game), so I expect to see this continue on Sunday. The Cardinals defense has been stingy thus far in two games this season, but they have also allowed three total touchdowns (1 rush, 2 rec) to opposing running backs. I am betting on Pollard’s volume.

WR-Calvin Ridley ($7200) - I like this stack, Ridley paired with Lawrence on Sunday. Last week the two weren’t in sync, only connected twice for 32 yards on 8 targets. I am betting these two will get this corrected on Sunday and capitalize against the Texans secondary that allows the third highest rate of completion to wide receivers.

WR-Nico Collins ($5300) - Clearly Collins is greatly underpriced, which is our win. Through two weeks of action he ranks as fantasy WR7. Averaging 10 targets per game thus far this season, the volume is there for Collins to produce. I love the matchup in a contest where the Texans could be playing from behind and have to air it out more.

TE-Hayden Hurst ($3800) - The return of the “Red Rifle” (Andy Dalton) this week has me thinking check down and safely value. Enter Hayden Hurst, currently fantasy TE7. He’s more than a capable receiver, as evidenced in his week one outing where he was targeted 7 times, caught five balls for 41 yards and one touchdown. With Dalton under center, I see the tight end getting more usage on Sunday.

These are my favorite plays for Week 3.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega