FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING SHOTS

October 8th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Shots 

Week 5: Four Horsemen

With NFL Sunday Week 5 here in the states and set to kickoff in a few hours. I thought I would go ahead and throw out a couple of bold predictions or as I say “Call my shots” for Week 5. These are some fantasy plays and matchups that I am predicting a positive range of outcomes. Play at your own risk, but in these riders I trust for week 5.

These are my Week 5 Four Horsemen.

Anthony Richardson (Colts) - The Colts rookie quarterback has shown through the first four weeks, his fantasy floor is high. I am not calling for a big game today, but rather Richardson will do what he does and should put up solid fantasy numbers. He’s been dynamic this season and a fantasy champion winner as the fantasy QB2 (fantasy points per game) thus far. He’s been doing significant damage on the ground with 131 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns and I would suspect more of the same today; 50 plus rushing, a passing score and rushing.

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) - The rookie runner has dazzled through four weeks, sitting in the fantasy RB10 slot. Robinson is likely to see his usage continue to be dialed up and trending in the direction fantasy owners like to see. His week 5 matchup looks promising as he meets a Texans defense that over the past two weeks has allowed the 8th most points to opposing running backs, including the 6th most total yards (204 rushing, 114 receiving). A dual threat out of the backfield, Robinson should be a busy man contributing to the ground and air attacks on Sunday. He’s a strong bet to total over 100 yards of offense and find the end zone.

Chris Olave (Saints) -The Saints receiver only goes as far as the health of his quarterback. If Derek Carr is healthy on Sunday, after watching the Patriots secondary get torched by the Cowboys in week 4, Olave and company could follow suit. Olave caught just one pass on six targets last week against the Buccaneers, a rebound game is in order here. The Saints wideout should see plenty of work, in the neighborhood of 6-8 targets with a couple of shots in the red zone.

Tyler Higbee (Rams) - With all of the attention and focus on the Rams new dynamic duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, Higbee could be more than just a sneaky play. Higbee has been seeing regular work the past couple of weeks and with the Eagles secondary having their hands full with the caped crusaders, Higbee should benefit greatly against the 29th ranked defense (fantasy points allowed) versus opposing tight ends. Higbee could be in line for a 5-7 catch afternoon and a score.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

October 6th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 5: Best Matchups/Plays)

With the start of Week 5 on Thursday night, the 2023 season is moving right along as we enter the “Bye Weeks.” With some players not being available due to their bye, it will be key for owners to stay on top of current trends and matchups.

Some of the notable matchups in play this week will include the Eagles traveling to Sofi Stadium in Los Angeles to face the Rams in what could be a shootout. The Texans quarterback CJ Stroud will take his hot hand on the road this week to Atlanta. And in London the Jaguars will look to defend their overseas territory against Josh Allen and the streaking Bills.

It’s just another fun week in the world of fantasy football with several games offering some key matchups that should benefit fantasy owners in week 5.

Here are the plays I like this weekend.

QB-Anthony Richardson (Colts) - Time to jump on this bandwagon here. Richardson has been fantastic in this early season, currently the fantasy QB2, and now he could be getting back possibly the team’s best weapon (besides himself) in running back Jonathan Taylor. Richardson is poised for a big day against the Titans.

RB-Dameon Pierce (Texans) - After their demolishing of the Steelers in week 4, the Texans offense appears to be firing on all cylinders. Pierce ran hard in week 4, accumulating 24 carries for the afternoon. With the passing game starting to blossom, Pierce should find some open running lanes in Week 5 against the Falcons.

RB-De’Von Achane (Dolphins) - You’ve gotta roll the dice with the hot hand here. Achane has been explosive averaging over 10 yards a tilt on the ground over the past two games. Even if Mostert starts the game, there’s no keeping this kid off the field. The Giants are in town (ranked 29th versus the run) and a chance for Achane to keep rolling along.

WR-DeVonta Smith (Eagles) - The Eagles wide receiver has kind of been the quiet man in recent weeks with his fellow teammate AJ Brown dominating. Smith’s numbers have been overshadowed a bit by the great play of Brown, but he’s still the fantasy WR15 entering week 5. The over/under in this week’s matchup is hovering around 50-points and I like the over. I think Smith is due for a big game and this week is as good as any.

WR-Calvin Ridley (Jaguars) - This is purely a gut call here. Ridley has been just off the past couple of weeks, but the good news, he’s not forgotten. Ridley started the season with the hot hand, 19 targets in his first two games, but it’s been quite the opposite since with just 9 targets in his last two. There’s too much talent here to stay quiet. It’s a tough matchup against the Bills in London, but Ridley and the Jaguars will be well rested.

TE-Tyler Higbee (Rams) - Over the past two weeks the Rams tight end has been consistent averaging 5 catches for 67.5 yards receiving, good enough for the fantasy TE6 slot. With the Eagles coming to town, Higbee will have the opportunity to continue his steady play against a defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

FLX-Breece Hall (Jets) - It’s hard to imagine Head Coach Robert Saleh not featuring running back Breece Hall this week on the road against the Broncos defense. The Jets HC announced Hall would not be on a pitch count any longer and this week they got the Broncos, one of the worst defenses in the league. If there ever was a time to unleash the second year running back, that time is now.

These players may already be locked into your lineup and they may not, but if they are sitting on your bench and you are facing a start’em dilemma consider these plays for Week 5. I guarantee nothing and offer even less, these are just my best guesses about their respective week 5 matchups and outcomes for this weekend. 

Strong plays to consider for DFS as well.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY HEROES WEEK 4

October 2nd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Monday Afternoon Edition

NFL Sunday Week 4:

Sunday’s Heroes

Another wild weekend in the NFL. 70 points weren’t scored in any games this weekend, but there were plenty of close games, fantastic finishes, Overtime thrillers, and one team returning back to earth.

As is the case in the NFL every weekend there are performances to remember. In Buffalo there were the five touchdowns by Josh Allen (4 pass, 1 run), in Tennessee the return of King Henry (122 yards rushing and a touchdown), and in Indianapolis the Legend of Puka continues (9 receptions, 163 yards receiving, and a touchdown). NFL Sunday Week 4 was just another great day filled with great performances by some great players.

These are just some of those NFL Week 4 Sunday Heroes.

QB, Anthony Richardson (Colts) - In week 4 Richardson was special. He led the Colts back from a 23-point deficit and did it with both his arm and legs. Richardson passed for 200 yards and threw two touchdowns in the comeback, while rushing for 56 yards and scored another touchdown. For the second time this season he has finished as a Top-5 fantasy quarterback, in week 4 he finished the day as the fantasy QB2. There’s some risk of injury with Richardson that we’ve seen this season, but he’s entered the must-start conversation with his leg production.

RB, Kyren Williams (Rams) - The Rams running back was the fantasy RB3 on Sunday, posting Top-10 fantasy numbers for the third time in four games. Against the Colts Williams rushed for 103 yards, added two rushing touchdowns, while catching three passes for another 24 yards receiving. His 28 touches (25 carries and three receptions) were his highest total for the season. We’ve seen enough from Williams this season, he’s the lead back in Los Angeles and a must-start.

WR, Nico Collins (Texans) - The Texans wide receiver rose from the week 3 ashes and had another solid performance on Sunday. Collins has been terrific much of the season and in Week 4 he did not disappoint, putting up Top-3 fantasy receiver numbers. The Texans wideout was targeted 9 times, recording 7 receptions for 168 yards receiving and two touchdowns. A bounce back performance for Nico and a definitive statement, he’s a WR-1, and should be in your lineup every week.

TE, Jonnu Smith (Falcons) - The Falcons other tight end Jonnu Smith has been surprisingly good for fantasy owners this season. On Sunday he connected with the Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder for 6 receptions, for 95 yards receiving, finishing the day as fantasy TE3. This season Smith has been targeted 20 times (one fewer than tight end Kyle Pitts) and has more receptions (15) and yards receiving (179) than teammate Pitts. Jonnu may be the tight end to start in Atlanta.

IDP-DL, Maxx Crosby (Raiders) - The Raiders pass rushing defensive end had an afternoon on Sunday week 4. Crosby was a disruptor all afternoon, recording 5 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 sacks, 2 QB hits, and 2 tackles for loss. His engine had no quit.

IDP-LB, Kahlil Mack (Chargers) - The Chargers pass rush specialist was in full beast mode on Sunday terrorizing the Raiders rookie quarterback Aiden O’Connell. Mack sacked the quarterback six times and added 8 solo tackles, 2 assists, 5 tackles for loss, 4 QB hits, 1 pass defense and 2 forced fumbles. He was a complete terror on Sunday.

IDP-DB, Antoine Winfield Jr (Buccaneers) - The Buccaneers defensive back was big on the day, causing mischief and raising havoc on the field. Winfield was busy on the afternoon recording 6 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 QB hit, 1 pass defense, 1 forced fumble and a fumble recovery.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega